Pakistan oil and gas production declines during Jan-Mar 2021 quarter

Pakistan’s indigenous crude oil production in 3QFY21 declined to 77,139, down 6%YoY barrels per day (bpd) mainly because of sharp fall of 63%YoY in Makori Deep’s production, followed by 23%YoY decline in Mardankhel and 11%YoY in Maramzai’s productions.

These three fields belong to Tal Block (operated by MOL Pakistan) of which production in total has declined by 13%YoY to 17,840 bpd during Jan-Mar 2021 quarter as against 20,597 bpd during Jan-Mar 2020 quarter.

The decline in production from Tal Block was contained to 13% due to 3%YoY increase in oil production from Makori East (which contributes 54% to Tal Block and 12% to country’s production).

On a QoQ basis, Pakistan oil production was up by 2%.

During 9MFY21, Pakistan oil production declined by 6%YoY to 75,924 bpd due to decline in flows from Makori Deep, Mardankhel and Nashpa fields.

Pakistan domestic gas production declined to 3,550 mmcfd, down by 3%YoY during the quarter under review due to lower flows from Qadirpur, Kandhkot, KPD and Maramzai ranging from 7% to 15%YoY.

Mari field’s production increased by 3%YoY and 2%QoQ as it has replaced Kandhkot field volumes to the National Grid. As a result, Kandkot field volumes have come down by 11%YoY and 1%QoQ.

On QoQ basis, gas production increased by 5% during the quarter due to sharp improvement in flows of Uch Field, rising to 35,013 mmcfd.

On 9MFY21 basis, gas production was down 3%YoY to 3,525 mmcfd due to decline in flows from Qadirpur, Kandkot, and KPD to the tune of 4% to 17%.

Chinese soldiers may enter Afghanistan after departure of US troops

A very interesting, but equally perturbing situation is likely to emerge in Afghanistan. As the United States has announced to completely withdraw troops by 11 September, China has expressed its intentions to deploy its troops.

According to a report, Beijing may consider sending a peacekeeping force to Afghanistan if the security situation in the South Asian country poses a threat to the neighboring Chinese province of Xinjiang after American troops pull out.

US President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that he would withdraw all remaining US troops – about 2,500 – from Afghanistan by 11^th September, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attack on the United States.

The withdrawal may pose a threat to Afghanistan’s security and stability, which could spill over into Xinjiang and disrupt China’s counterterrorism efforts.

In 2018, China trained Afghan troops and helped set up a mountain brigade. The training took place in China and the aim of the brigade was to counter possible attacks by al-Qaeda and Islamic State.

“The security forces of the Afghan government are not capable of ensuring Afghan security,” said Sun Qi, an international relations specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

“The situation in Afghanistan might go further into chaos in the future. Cross-border crime, drug trafficking and smuggling of firearms may proliferate,” he said.

China may send peacekeeping troops to Afghanistan under the terms of the UN Charter, according to an international relations specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

While Beijing would not station troops in Afghanistan, it might work with other countries in the region to promote political stability and reduce the security risk to China, Sun said.

 “If the security situation poses a significant threat, China may send peacekeeping troops along with humanitarian assistance to the region under the terms of the Charter of the United Nations to ensure the safety and interests of Chinese people and companies there,” he said.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian informed that foreign troops stationed in Afghanistan should withdraw in a “responsible and orderly manner” to prevent terrorist forces from taking advantage of the chaos.

“The United States is the biggest external factor affecting the Afghan issue. The relevant decisions and actions of the United States should fully respect the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Afghanistan, earnestly take responsibility for maintaining the results of peace and reconstruction in Afghanistan,” he said.

Soon after Biden’s announcement, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance planned to withdraw its troops – about 7,000 – from Afghanistan by next month. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Thursday that Australia would also complete its military withdrawal from Afghanistan in September.

Other experts said China was unlikely to push too hard to gain influence in Afghanistan as there was already fierce competition in the region.

“A number of countries, including Pakistan, India and Russia, want to exert their influence in the region, so China really needs to be careful of getting involved in the chaos,” said Wang Jin, a research fellow at the Charhar Institute think tank in northern China.

China and the US were unlikely to engage in any significant cooperation in Afghanistan after the US troop withdrawal, given the tensions between the two countries, he said.

“We can see from the withdrawal of US troops that the willingness of the US to intervene in Afghanistan’s affairs is declining,” he said.

“Primarily the idea of solving local conflicts by establishing a Western-style democracy in Afghanistan has failed.”

Sun said the US was likely to withdraw its military deployments from Central Asia and redeploy them to the Asia-Pacific.

“The withdrawal from Afghanistan allows the US to boost its military presence in Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, with the aim of containing China,” he said.

“The US is highly likely to increase its military activity in the South China Sea and China-Indochina peninsula.”

Can secret talks between India and Pakistan yield any result?

It is believed that both India and Pakistan are busy in minimizing tension on the instructions of some external forces. This may bring a temporary calm for a while, but just can’t establish sustainable peace. The lingering on of Kashmir issue can be attributed to super powers fighting a sort of proxy wars in the region, including Afghan war going on for nearly twenty years.

Analysts say that now besides United States, China and Russia are also controlling the string. Ironically, these super powers don’t wish to engage in any direct encounter but want the proxies to hit strategic interests of each other.

Let everyone keep in mind that Russia and other Central Asian countries want access to warm waters, though Afghanistan and Pakistan. Similarly, China wants full control and security of projects being constructed under the auspicious of CEPC.

According to a Reuters news, top intelligence officers from India and Pakistan held secret talks in Dubai in January this year in a new effort to calm military tension over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir.

While the super powers are pursuing their agenda, hawks present in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan continue to play the role of ‘spoilers’. Ironically the status of these hawks keeps on changing from friend to foe to friend.

Having read the preamble, now let us talk about secret talks going on between India and Pakistan on the behest of United Arab Emirates or to be little rude China and United States.

Keeping a few points in mind that over the last 74 years Kashmir issue has not been resolved, both the countries have fought numerous wars and attained the status of atomic powers to stain supremacy on each other, while millions of people on both sides of the border live below the poverty line, maintaining peace and tranquility in the regions seems only diabolic thinking

Both the Pakistan and Indian governments have re-opened a backdoor diplomacy aimed at a modest roadmap to normalizing ties. Such meetings have taken place in the past too, especially during times of crises but never been publicly acknowledged.

 It is not loner a secret that Indian and Pakistan intelligence officials have been meeting for several months in third countries. It is believed that these meeting have been held in Thailand, Dubai and London between the highest level people.

There is a lot that can still go wrong, it is fraught that is why nobody is talking it up in public, we don't even have a name for this, it's not a peace process, one can call it a re-engagement.

"It’s better for India and Pakistan to talk than not talk, and even better that it should be done quietly than in a glare of publicity," said Myra MacDonald, a former Reuters journalist who has just published a book on India, Pakistan and war on the frontiers of Kashmir.

Analysts don't see these meeting going beyond a basic management of tensions, possibly to tide both countries over a difficult period - Pakistan needs to address the fallout of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, while India has to confront a far more volatile situation on its disputed frontier with China.

Joe Biden faces resistance on withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan

President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday of a complete withdrawal of United States from Afghanistan by 11^th September this year. The announcement aims at closing the longest war of the United States.

However, many analysts, even within the US, remain skeptical of sustainable peace in Afghanistan, which has reduced to rudiments in two decades of fighting.

As officials disclosed Biden’s pullout plans, the US intelligence community renewed deep concerns about the outlook for the US-backed government in Kabul, which is clinging to an eroding stalemate.

“The Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support,” said the US assessment, which was sent to Congress.

Kabul continues to face setbacks on the battlefield, and the Taliban are confident that they can achieve military victory.

The Democratic President had faced the 1st May withdrawal deadline, set by his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, who tried but failed to pull the troops out before he left office.

Biden’s decision to keep 2,500 troops in Afghanistan past that 1^st May 1 deadline, but officials suggested troops could fully depart before 11^th September, the US troop numbers in Afghanistan peaked at more than 100,000 in 2011.

“There is no military solution to the problems plaguing Afghanistan, and we will focus our efforts on supporting the ongoing peace process,” a senior administration official said.

It remains unclear how Biden’s move would affect a planned 10-day summit about Afghanistan starting on 24^th April in Istanbul that is due to include the United Nations and Qatar.

Taliban, which were ousted from power in 2001 by the US-led troops, said they would not take part in any summits that would make decisions about Afghanistan until all foreign forces had left the country.

Critics said the departure plan appeared to surrender Afghanistan to an uncertain fate, something that experts say was perhaps inevitable.

 “There is no good way that the US can withdraw from Afghanistan. It cannot claim victory, and it cannot wait indefinitely for some cosmetic form of peace,” said Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.

Democratic Senator Jack Reed, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, called it a very difficult decision for Biden.

“There is no easy answer,” Reed said.

US officials can claim to have, years ago, decimated al Qaeda’s core leadership in the region. But ties between the Taliban and al Qaeda elements persist.

By withdrawing without a clear victory, the United States opens itself to criticism that a withdrawal is a de facto admission of failure.

The war began as a search for al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden following the Islamist militant group’s 9/11 attacks, when hijackers slammed airplanes into the World Trade Center in New York City and the Pentagon outside Washington, killing almost 3,000 people.

Successive US presidents sought to extricate themselves from Afghanistan, but those hopes were confounded by concerns about Afghan security forces, endemic corruption in Afghanistan and the resiliency of a Taliban insurgency that enjoyed safe haven across Afghanistan.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell accused Biden of planning to “turn tail and abandon the fight in Afghanistan.”

“Precipitously withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan is a grave mistake,” McConnell said, adding that effective counterterrorism operations require presence and partners on the ground.

Even Biden’s allies in Congress fretted about the impact a withdrawal would have on human rights, given the gains - particularly for women and girls - in Afghanistan in the past two decades.

The senior administration official said US troops were not the best solution for preserving human rights gains, saying that aggressive diplomatic, humanitarian and economic measures are needed instead.