Pakistan facing election delay

Calls from multiple players to delay Pakistan's upcoming general election threaten what is left of the country's fragile democracy, experts say, though many expect the polls will go ahead in the end.

The clearest push for a postponement so far came last Friday, when the Senate passed a resolution urging the government to put off the February 08 vote due to security concerns. Molana Fazal ur Rehman, Pakistan's leading Islamist politician, also endorsed the resolution.

Fears of violence are not unfounded. On Monday, six policemen were killed by the Pakistani Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province during an anti-polio campaign, just the latest attack on security personnel. Last Friday, a religious cleric belonging to a Sunni sectarian group was gunned down in Islamabad, sparking protests.

But while deteriorating security provides a pretext for pushing back the election, many politicians, civil society activists and political commentators told Nikkei Asia that further delaying the already late vote would damage the democratic system.

"A prolonged caretaker setup that is beholden to the [military] establishment but not accountable to the people of Pakistan has eroded civilian say in governance," said Amber Rahim Shamsi, a political commentator based in Karachi.

After former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022, a coalition government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party took over. Last August, it dissolved for a caretaker government to oversee elections, which were originally supposed to be held in late 2023.

Cyril Almeida, a politics expert in Islamabad, believes that Pakistan is now operating outside constitutional parameters. He said a fixation has developed on simply preventing Khan - a former cricket star turned Islamist populist now jailed over corruption allegations he denies - from making a comeback.

"Military and the civilians not aligned with Imran Khan have a single-point agenda: Keep Imran Khan out of power," he said. "So whatever it takes to achieve that, the military and its civilian allies are willing to contemplate."

Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which complains of an uneven playing field, is down but not necessarily out. Election nomination papers for Khan and an overwhelming majority of PTI leaders were initially rejected. Later, appellate tribunals overturned most of the decisions, albeit not for Khan.

On Wednesday, the High Court in Peshawar ruled that the PTI can contest elections under its trademark symbol, a cricket bat. Earlier, the Election Commission had deprived the PTI of its symbol on a technicality.

Meanwhile, once-exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif this week had his ban from politics lifted, clearing him to run. Sharif and his PML-N party are now widely considered the preference of the military establishment.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has expressed concern about the electoral process. "At this point, there is little evidence to show that the upcoming elections will be free, fair, or credible," it said in a January 01 statement on X, formerly Twitter.

Shahid Maitla, another political analyst in Islamabad, believes the establishment and caretaker government have failed to check the popularity of Khan, who still has vast appeal among the masses. "The curtailment of Khan's party is being achieved through the management of courts, police and media," he said.

He said that some in the "business community, caretakers and unpopular political players like JUI-F are the ones having vested interests are exerting pressure on the establishment to postpone [the] polls," referring to Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal, the largest Islamist party, led by Rehman.

Maitla even suggested that some members of the caretaker government are lobbying prominent journalists to influence the establishment and judiciary to delay the elections so that they can continue to rule.

Yet, the growing unpopularity of the interim administration is making that case more difficult, experts say.

In recent days, caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul-Haq Kakar and Information Minister Murtaza Solangi have faced severe criticism for comments they made at different forums. Kakar suggested women from Balochistan province protesting forced disappearances were "advocates of terrorists" and asked those who are supporting them to "go and join them."

Maitla said that the caretaker government has also failed to effectively communicate Pakistan's position on the repatriation of Afghan migrants and the Israel-Hamas war. "Kakar proved a poor choice" for prime minister, he argued, saying Kakar is keen to interact with the media but "earned embarrassment."

"The establishment is not happy with the caretakers at all," Maitla said. "If elections had not been nearing, many of them would have been replaced."

Almeida in Islamabad said the interim government has overstepped.

"All caretaker governments lack political legitimacy, but this particular group has tried to leverage the support it has of the military into space for weighing in on policy matters and national controversies," he said.

That leaves elections as the best bet to form a more legitimate government, despite the efforts to delay them.

A well-placed source within the security establishment denied rumors that Kakar could be replaced. "'[Kakar] will complete his tenure and elections will be held on time," the source told Nikkei on condition of anonymity.

"With Nawaz Sharif back in the country and now cleared to take part in elections, it is unlikely elections will be postponed at this late stage," Almeida argued.

Maitla agreed. The "election is a compulsion rather than a choice for the country and more so for the establishment, as it is losing its capital fast from the domestic to the international front."

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

Chinese soldiers may enter Afghanistan after departure of US troops

A very interesting, but equally perturbing situation is likely to emerge in Afghanistan. As the United States has announced to completely withdraw troops by 11 September, China has expressed its intentions to deploy its troops.

According to a report, Beijing may consider sending a peacekeeping force to Afghanistan if the security situation in the South Asian country poses a threat to the neighboring Chinese province of Xinjiang after American troops pull out.

US President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that he would withdraw all remaining US troops – about 2,500 – from Afghanistan by 11^th September, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attack on the United States.

The withdrawal may pose a threat to Afghanistan’s security and stability, which could spill over into Xinjiang and disrupt China’s counterterrorism efforts.

In 2018, China trained Afghan troops and helped set up a mountain brigade. The training took place in China and the aim of the brigade was to counter possible attacks by al-Qaeda and Islamic State.

“The security forces of the Afghan government are not capable of ensuring Afghan security,” said Sun Qi, an international relations specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

“The situation in Afghanistan might go further into chaos in the future. Cross-border crime, drug trafficking and smuggling of firearms may proliferate,” he said.

China may send peacekeeping troops to Afghanistan under the terms of the UN Charter, according to an international relations specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

While Beijing would not station troops in Afghanistan, it might work with other countries in the region to promote political stability and reduce the security risk to China, Sun said.

 “If the security situation poses a significant threat, China may send peacekeeping troops along with humanitarian assistance to the region under the terms of the Charter of the United Nations to ensure the safety and interests of Chinese people and companies there,” he said.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian informed that foreign troops stationed in Afghanistan should withdraw in a “responsible and orderly manner” to prevent terrorist forces from taking advantage of the chaos.

“The United States is the biggest external factor affecting the Afghan issue. The relevant decisions and actions of the United States should fully respect the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Afghanistan, earnestly take responsibility for maintaining the results of peace and reconstruction in Afghanistan,” he said.

Soon after Biden’s announcement, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance planned to withdraw its troops – about 7,000 – from Afghanistan by next month. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Thursday that Australia would also complete its military withdrawal from Afghanistan in September.

Other experts said China was unlikely to push too hard to gain influence in Afghanistan as there was already fierce competition in the region.

“A number of countries, including Pakistan, India and Russia, want to exert their influence in the region, so China really needs to be careful of getting involved in the chaos,” said Wang Jin, a research fellow at the Charhar Institute think tank in northern China.

China and the US were unlikely to engage in any significant cooperation in Afghanistan after the US troop withdrawal, given the tensions between the two countries, he said.

“We can see from the withdrawal of US troops that the willingness of the US to intervene in Afghanistan’s affairs is declining,” he said.

“Primarily the idea of solving local conflicts by establishing a Western-style democracy in Afghanistan has failed.”

Sun said the US was likely to withdraw its military deployments from Central Asia and redeploy them to the Asia-Pacific.

“The withdrawal from Afghanistan allows the US to boost its military presence in Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, with the aim of containing China,” he said.

“The US is highly likely to increase its military activity in the South China Sea and China-Indochina peninsula.”