Netanyahu terms Iran Nuclear agreement worthless

Israel will not rely on efforts to return to a nuclear deal with Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday. “Israel isn’t pinning its hopes on an agreement with an extremist regime like (Iran),” he said at a memorial service for the 1920 Battle of Tel Hai.

“With or without an agreement, we will do everything so Iran isn’t armed with nuclear weapons,” he added.

Referring to the story of Purim, which begins on Thursday night, Netanyahu said, “2,500 years ago, a Persian oppressor tried to destroy the Jewish people, and just as he failed then, you will fail today… We didn’t make a journey of thousands of years to return to the Land of Israel to allow the delusional ayatollahs’ regime to finish the story of the rebirth of the Jewish People.”

On Monday, Netanyahu met with Defense Minister Benny Gantz, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, Mossad Director Yossi Cohen, National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat, Ambassador to the US Gilad Erdan and others to discuss Israel’s strategy and response to the Biden administration’s attempted rapprochement with Iran.

The United States is seeking to start a dialogue with Iran and move toward a return to the 2015 Iran deal, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said in a statement with the European countries that were party to the deal. Officials in Washington have called on Iran to return to compliance with the deal before the US would remove sanctions.

Officials in the meeting were split on whether Israel should advocate for the US to stay out of the Iran deal until it can get a better, more-secure agreement, or be more supportive of what US President Joe Biden’s stated plan is, to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the 2015 Iran deal is officially called, and then negotiate tougher terms.

Netanyahu reportedly took the first, harder line, while Gantz and Ashkenazi supported a less-confrontational approach.

As indicated by Netanyahu’s remarks, open opposition to a return to the JCPOA is still on the table.

Rejoining “the old nuclear deal of 2015 that paves Iran’s path to an arsenal of nuclear bombs will be a mistake,” Erdan told KAN Reshet Bet on Tuesday.

If the US returns to the JCPOA by lifting sanctions, it won’t have any leverage to convince Iran to reopen negotiations for a stricter deal, he said.

Nevertheless, “a diplomatic solution is always preferable to a military solution,” Erdan said, adding that “the question is whether there will be an agreement that blocks any way Iran can get a nuclear weapon.”

The officials at Monday’s meeting agreed Israel should continue its ongoing dialogue with the Biden administration rather than opt for open confrontation, as it did in former US president Barack Obama’s second term.

Erdan emphasized the importance of dialogue during his interview with KAN Reshet Bet.

“The new US administration has shown a very honest and deep will to hold organized consultations with Israel, led by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan,” he said. “Israel is in a process of full dialogue with the Biden administration and they are listening to our stance – the American government and also central countries in Europe.”

Also Tuesday, the European parties to the JCPOA, known as the E3, said Iran’s decision to block snap inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency was dangerous and a violation of the Iran deal.

The foreign ministers of France, Germany and the UK said they “deeply regret” that Iran suspended what is known as the Additional Protocol of the JCPOA.

“Iran’s actions are a further violation of its commitments under the JCPOA and significantly reduces safeguards oversight by the IAEA,” they said. “The E3 are united in underlining the dangerous nature of this decision.”

The foreign ministers said stopping snap inspections would limit IAEA access to nuclear sites and its ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear program and related activities.

“We urge Iran to stop and reverse all measures that reduce transparency and to ensure full and timely cooperation with the IAEA,” they said.

The foreign ministers said they seek to preserve the JCPOA and negotiate for Iran and the US to return to it.

The JCPOA’s additional protocol said the IAEA could hold short-term inspections in locations that Iran had not declared as nuclear sites.

Iran announced it would stop the inspections on Tuesday, going back on a prior agreement to extend them for three more months. The move was a response to the US not lifting sanctions on the regime.

Israel views the E3 as more open to the Israeli position than in the past due to Iran’s repeated violations of the deal’s limitations, KAN reported.

In recent weeks, Iran announced it would enrich uranium up to 20% and produce uranium metal, which the E3 said has no credible civilian use.

Israel has increased pressure on the E3 to try to talk them out of rejoining the old Iran deal, with many more discussions about Iran than usual, KAN reported.

Saudi Arabia and Russia once again on opposite sides

Saudi Arabia and Russia once again seem to be propagating opposite stance prior to OPEC plus meeting scheduled in March. While Riyadh is publicly urging fellow members to be extremely cautious, Moscow is demanding increase in output.

When OPEC plus gathers on 4th March, it will discuss increasing output in April. There will be two crucial decisions.

First, the group as a whole must choose whether to restore as much as 500,000 barrels a day. Second, Saudi Arabia must decide the fate of one million barrels a day of extra voluntary cuts and clearing surplus inventories even more quickly.

The kingdom initially announced this reduction would be reversed in April, but their latest thinking is fluid and the next move hasn’t been finalized. Offering to maintain some part of this voluntary cut in April could give Riyadh a useful bargaining chip if it’s seeking to limit the group’s overall output increase.

Some easing in production restraint is likely at the March meeting. The real bargaining has yet to start and no decision has been pre-baked.

Having differed over the pace of supply increases at the last two ministerial meetings, public comments from Riyadh and Moscow indicate that another debate looms.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on 14th February that the market was balanced. While he hasn’t publicly expressed a policy preference for the March discussions, Novak argued at the last two OPEC+ meetings for production increases.

Acknowledging his stance might be unpopular; Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned his fellow producers against complacency. The group must recall the scars of last year’s crisis and be extremely cautious in its next move, he said.

This year’s 20% rally in crude prices has been sharp enough for major consumers such as India to complain about the squeeze, and for Wall Street banks and trading houses to predict further gains.

Global inventories are falling very fast and are set to diminish sharply later this year, according to the International Energy Agency. Demand for petroleum products that cater to societies working and consuming at home is booming.

After freezing storms in Texas shuttered as much as 40% of US crude production in the past week, the clamor for barrels from refiners in some regions has grown stronger. There’s also the risk for OPEC plus that, once the weather-related disruption in the shale heartlands abates, high prices would provoke a new flood of supply.

At the same time, inventories remain significantly above average levels and the IEA forecasts they could pile up again next quarter. The supply disruption from the US freeze won’t last long enough to cause a shortage.

Prices are still below the levels most OPEC members need to cover government spending. Saudi Arabia’s one million barrels cut is a gift. If an attempt is made to snatch back this gift, prices would decline only.

Can Russia and China restore balance to JCPOA?

As the United States doubles down on its diplomatic effort to reach a common consensus with Europe on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, pundits raise speculation on how the European Union, particularly EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell, can save the day by setting the stage for Iran and the US to ultimately implement the nuclear deal in full.

These pundits rarely point to the fact that the European signatories to the nuclear deal – Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – have lost the neutrality needed to act as a go-between since Joe Biden won the US presidential election in November. The Europeans are now harboring even more hawkish views than Washington itself.

During the Trump administration, the European parties to the JCPOA – France, Germany and the UK (E3) – had been calling on Iran to fully implement the nuclear deal in the hope that Trump would lose the presidential election and then they will revive the JCPOA in collaboration with a more favorite Democratic administration.

Trump lost the election and was replaced by someone who had played a direct role in negotiating the JCPOA in the first place. But the Europeans were quick to renege on their promise to salvage the nuclear deal. They called for a new negotiation with Iran after Biden assumed office, one that would expand the JCPOA and add other thorny issues such as Iran’s defensive missile program and its regional activities to it.

The top diplomats of the E3 and the US reiterated this position during a recnt joint meeting.

“The E3 welcomed the prospect of a US and Iranian return to compliance with the JCPOA. The E3 and the United States affirmed their determination to then strengthen the JCPOA and, together with regional parties and the wider international community, address broader security concerns related to Iran’s missile programs and regional activities. We are committed to working together toward these goals,” the chief diplomats said in a joint statement after the meeting.

The Europeans are now planning an informal meeting of all JCPOA participants and the US. Citing a European official, Reuters said that the date of this meeting is yet to be set.  The official also pointed to a US willingness to accept an invitation from the EU to participate in a meeting of the P5+1.

Earlier, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said Washington was willing to attend a meeting of the P5+1, although the US is not a member of this group of major world powers.

“The United States would accept an invitation from the European Union High Representative to attend a meeting of the P5+1 and Iran to discuss a diplomatic way forward on Iran's nuclear program,” Price noted, referring to the UN Security Council's five permanent members and Germany.

Price’s remarks signified a U.S. desire to walk into the P4+1 with the help of the E3 even before lifting its sanctions on Iran.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh reminded the West that the US is still not a JCPOA member and the only way to get the JCPOA membership is to lift sanctions.

Because of US withdrawal from JCPOA, there is NO P5+1. It is now only Iran and P4+1. Remember, Trump left the room and tried to blow it up. Gestures are fine. But to revive P5+1, US must act lift sanctions. We will respond, Khatibzadeh said on Friday.

But while the E3 tries to sneak the US in the JCPOA without lifting the sanctions, two JCPOA parties, namely China and Russia, can ensure that the US would rejoin the nuclear deal after correcting the mistakes Trump made against Iran.

China took a step in this regard by saying that US should unconditionally return to the JCPOA and lift all sanctions.

Speaking at a news conference, China’s Foreign Ministry Hua Chunying said, “Currently the Iranian nuclear issue is at a critical stage with both opportunities and challenges. China holds that the return of the United States to the JCPOA is the only correct approach to resolve the impasse on this issue. All parties should act with greater urgency, work together to implement consensus reached at the foreign ministers' meeting last December, and push for the unconditional return of the United States to the JCPOA as soon as possible and the lifting of all sanctions on Iran. On its part, Iran should resume full compliance with the JCPOA. In the meantime, we call on all sides to remain calm and exercise restraint, avoid taking actions that will escalate the situation and reserve space for diplomatic efforts.”

Russia, for its part, reminded the West why the JCPOA ended up a failed deal. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, has welcomed a US decision to rescind the Trump administration’s restoration of all UN sanctions on Iran in September.

Peskov also said that the main reason for the non-implementation of the JCPOA is the sanctions pressure that the US put on Iran.

Also, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS that Iran cannot be suspected of carrying out a covert nuclear weapons program as the E3 and the US ramped up pressure on Iran, accusing it of pursuing nuclear activities that have no civil justifications.

“We have always said and are saying now that a state, which has an agreement on comprehensive guarantees with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and which has been committed to this deal - and Iran has such an agreement, and a state, which has been fully observing the JCPOA for a long time, cannot be suspected of carrying out a covert program on weaponization in the nuclear field,” Ryabkov noted.

With the E3 working to pave the way for a US return to the JCPOA without lifting the sanctions, Russia and China have a unique opportunity to ensure that the dispute around the JCPOA is resolved reasonably. They need to make it clear to the West that a dispute settled unfairly is bound to break out in the not-so-distant future.

Iran to launch direct shipping line to South Africa and Latin America

Iran has expressed its plan to launch a direct shipping line to South Africa and Latin American countries in near future; this was stated by an official with the Iranian Chamber of Cooperatives (ICC). Babak Afghahi, Head of non-oil trade and export development committee of ICC stated that the proposed shipping line will connect Southern Iranian ports to the ports of South Africa and then to Latin American countries, specifically Brazil.

He said, shipping line is going to be launched with the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) and is aimed at developing Iranian non-oil trade with the countries in the mentioned regions.

“With the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, considering the capacity of Iran's cargo export to the mentioned destinations, the chambers of commerce across the country, the Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) of Iran and other export bodies have been informed about the new development,” Afghahi said.

As reported by IRNA, the Islamic Republic’s trade with South Africa reached US$43 million in the first six months of the previous Iranian calendar year, while the figure stood at US$27 million in the same period a year ago.

Following a new strategy for boosting non-oil trade and distancing the country’s economy from oil, Iran has been launching several direct shipping lines to its major trade destinations over the past few years.

Earlier this month, the Head of Iran-Syria Joint Chamber of Commerce Keyvan Kashefi announced the establishment of a direct shipping line between Iran’s southern port of Bandar Abbas and Syria’s Mediterranean port of Latakia.

Iran has also launched five direct shipping lines to Oman and is planning to establish direct routes to Qatar, India, Turkmenistan, and Russia as well.