Israeli plan to evacuate Rafah civilians

Egyptian officials have shared details of Israel’s alleged plan to evacuate Rafah, a city in southern Gaza where 1.3 million Palestinians are sheltering.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on February 13 that the plan calls for displaced Palestinians to be concentrated in the western area of the enclave, within the coastal strip, along the sea.

Israel says it will establish 15 camp villages along the coast between Rafah and Gaza City in central Gaza. The areas included are south of Al-Mawasi and Sharm Park. Each camp will be equipped with 25,000 tents.

Egyptian officials say that Israel expects the camps, which would include medical facilities, to be funded by the US and Arab states.

However, it is unlikely that over 1 million people could be safely evacuated. 

Nadia Hardman, a refugee and migrant rights researcher at Human Rights Watch, stated, “Forcing the over one million displaced Palestinians in Rafah to again evacuate without a safe place to go would be unlawful and would have catastrophic consequences. There is nowhere safe to go in Gaza.”

If Israel proceeds with the offensive, its army will disrupt the already minimal aid entering Gaza and cause extensive destruction in Rafah, as it previously did in Gaza City and Khan Yunis. These action would exacerbate the uninhabitable conditions in Gaza, both during and after the war.

If Palestinians in Gaza are increasingly concentrated in tent camps along a tiny strip on Gaza’s coast, with no homes to return to, no functioning hospitals, and little food and humanitarian aid, this will enable Israel’s efforts to force Gaza’s population to ‘voluntarily’ flee to Egypt by land or other third parties by sea.

Israeli leaders have stated they wish to make life so difficult and dangerous for Palestinians in Gaza that the most humanitarian solution for them will be to leave Gaza and allow Israel to take it over for Jewish settlement.

The situation would resemble 1948, when Zionist militias forced Palestinians from Haifa to flee north to Lebanon by land and by boat from the city’s port.

While Gaza is on the brink of famine, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces criticism from his far-right allies for allowing any aid at all, the WSJ reported further.

“The minimal aid we committed to is an important condition for the continuation of the war because if there is a large humanitarian collapse, we can’t continue the war,” he told reporters last week.

Israel in December reopened its Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza to allow the UN and NGOs to increase aid. However, right-wing protesters have repeatedly blocked humanitarian convoys at the crossing, and the Israeli army has not taken any action to remove them.

 

Ethnic cleansing about to start in Rafah

Humanitarian groups are warning that any invasion of Rafah will severely threaten the last remaining safe zone in Gaza, where around 1.5 million Palestinians are huddled.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared his troops to prepare an evacuation plan for civilians in the city of Rafah, a major refugee camp called the last safe zone in Gaza.

Netanyahu said troops must fight against Palestinian militant group Hamas in the southern Gaza refugee camp, where the United Nations has warned more than 600,000 children are sheltering.

"It is impossible to achieve the goal of the war without eliminating Hamas," Netanyahu said, accusing the militant group of hiding battalions in Rafah.

Humanitarian groups warn that fleeing civilians have nowhere else to go and that Rafah is a major hub for humanitarian aid from Egypt that will be endangered by Israel moving in.

Avril Benoît, executive director of Doctors Without Borders USA, said the "needs are overwhelming" in Rafah.

"Israel’s declared ground offensive on Rafah would be catastrophic and must not proceed," Benoît said.

The Israeli push into Rafah also threatens to increase tensions between Israel and the US, which is trying to get Israel to reduce civilian casualties after the deaths of more than 27,000 people in Gaza.

President Biden offered his most critical remarks yet when he said Thursday night that Israel's offensive in Gaza is "over the top."

State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said the US would not support a push into Rafah.

“To conduct such an operation right now with no planning and little thought in an area where there is sheltering of a million people would be a disaster,” he told reporters.

 

Gazans fear Israeli assault on last refuge

Israeli forces shelled the outskirts of the last refuge on the southern edge of the Gaza Strip on Friday, where the displaced, penned against the border fence in their hundreds of thousands, said they feared a new assault with nowhere left to flee.

More than half of Gaza's 2.3 million residents are now homeless and crammed into Rafah. Tens of thousands more have arrived in recent days, carrying belongings in their arms and pulling children on carts, since Israeli forces launched one of the biggest assaults of the war last week to capture adjacent Khan Younis, the main southern city.

If the Israeli tanks keep coming they will be left with two choices: stay and die or climb the walls into Egypt.

Most of Gaza's population are in Rafah. If the tanks storm in, it will be a massacre like never before during this war."

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said late on Thursday that troops would now turn to Rafah, which along with Deir al-Balah just north of Khan Younis is among the last remaining areas they have yet to storm in an almost four-month assault.

"We are achieving our missions in Khan Younis, and we will also reach Rafah and eliminate terror elements that threaten us," Gallant said in a statement.

As the only part of Gaza with access to the limited food and medical aid trickling across the border, Rafah and nearby parts of Khan Younis have become a warren of makeshift tents clinging to the winter mud. Wind and cold weather added to the misery, blowing tents down, flooding them and the ground between them.

"Rafah is a pressure cooker of despair, and we fear for what comes next," Jens Laerke, spokesperson for the UN. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told a briefing in Geneva.

Israel says Hamas must be eradicated before it pulls its troops out of Gaza or frees detainees. Hamas says it will not sign any truce deal unless Israel agrees to pull out and end the war.

Are United States and Iran already at war?

More than 160 attacks on the US troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, 37 clashes in the Red Sea with the Houthis, and now five dead US service members — America’s mounting proxy battle with Iran over the past three months is spurring questions about whether the countries are at war. 

It’s also raising questions about whether the US can continue to hit back at Iranian-backed militia groups without seeking congressional authorization. 

The Biden administration argues it has successfully contained the Israeli war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas to Gaza, and that there is not a wider conflict. But the sheer number of attacks on US forces points to tensions spinning out of control. 

It is already a larger conflict. It’s a question of degrees, Robert Murrett, a retired Navy vice admiral, said. But the fighting is not out of control yet, according to Murrett. 

“Calling it a war is probably overstating things,” Murrett, now a professor at Syracuse University, said. “But the tensions, the hostilities that exist between Iran and the US are at the highest level they’ve been for some time.” 

The tit-for-tat battles reached a boiling point after a Sunday attack in Jordan, which the US has said likely came from an Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah. A suicide drone exploded in a housing unit at the Tower 22 base near Iraq and Syria, killing three Army soldiers.

The US also lost two sailors during a covert mission off the coast of Somalia to intercept Iranian missiles bound for the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. While the mission was a success, two sailors died after falling into the rough waters. 

 

The deaths sparked mourning across the US and calls for more action, particularly among Republicans, some of whom urged Biden to strike back inside Iran.

Washington is already deploying significant resources to defend ships in the Red Sea from the Houthis and carry out airstrikes in Yemen and Iraq, none of which have deterred the militia groups from attacking. 

Courtesy: The Hill

 

 

Iran denies involvement in killing of US troops

Iran’s mission to the United Nations has noted that Tehran is not embroiled in last night’s drone attacks on the US troops stationed in Jordan.

In a statement on the late Sunday, it said that this matter is not tied to Iran but a kind of conflict between US forces and resistance groups.  

The statement comes in the wake of drone attacks on a US base on the border of Jordan and Syria that left three American forces killed and at least 34 wounded.

It went on to add that there is no link in the attack, underling that the incident was part of the conflict between the army of the United States of America and resistance groups in the region, which reciprocate retaliatory attacks.”

The US President Joe Biden purportedly said that Iranian-backed groups are culprits of the attack.

The escalation of menacing rhetoric started a day after the incident among certain world countries and anti-Iran media outlets, alleging that Iran has provided weaponry to its so-called proxies in Iraq and Yemen. Such a spurious claim was vehemently dismissed by Iranian officials.   

The attack marks the first time that US military personnel were killed since the onset of the Israeli onslaught on Gaza on October 7.

Biden, in his statement, pointed out that all kinds of efforts are underway to garner information about the culprits and then bring them to justice.    

“Have no doubt – we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing,” he said.

Based on a statement issued by the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM or CENTCOM), it was stated that there is a possibility that the number of those injured in the attack would increase.  

Eight personnel were evacuated from Jordan for higher-level care, but are in stable condition.

The US president vowed revenge for those involved in the attacks, saying, “These service members embodied the very best of our nation: Unwavering in their bravery. Unflinching in their duty. Unbending in their commitment to our country — risking their own safety for the safety of their fellow Americans, and our allies and partners with whom we stand in the fight against terrorism. …  have no doubt – we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing.”

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani reacted to the attacks on Monday, saying, “As we have clearly stated before, the resistance groups in the region are responding to the war crimes and genocide of the child-killing Zionist regime and… they do not take orders from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

The spokesman ruled out the baseless accusations against Iran, describing them as a blame game and a plot by those who try to protect their own interests and cover up their problems by dragging the US into a new conflict in the region and provoking it to intensify the crisis.

He went on to add, “These groups decide and act based on their own principles and priorities as well as the interests of their country and people.”

Kanaani also averred that the allegations of Iran’s involvement are popped up by certain countries having political machinations to distort the realities and are under the direct influence of the child-killing Zionist regime. 

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibly for the attacks on three bases, including one on the Jordan-Syria border.

Since the start of Israel’s onslaught on the Gaza Strip on October 7, there have been around 160 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Most of those have been claimed by regional resistance forces.

Iranian officials have frequently said resistance groups act on their own in response to Israeli crimes in Gaza.

 

US attack on Iran could prove a fatal mistake

The killing of three United States troops and wounding of dozens more on Sunday is piling political pressure on President Joe Biden to deal a blow directly against Iran, a move he's been reluctant to do out of fear of igniting a broader war.

However many in the United States believe that direct attack on Iran or its bases in the neighboring countries could prove a big mistake

"As we see now, it is spiraling out of control. It's beginning to emerge as a regional war, and unfortunately the United States and our troops are in harms way," Democratic Representative Barbara Lee said, renewing calls for a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian war.

Democratic Representative Seth Moulton, who served four tours in Iraq as a Marine, urged against Republican calls for war, saying "deterrence is hard; war is worse.”

"To the chicken hawks calling for war with Iran, you're playing into the enemy's hands—and I’d like to see you send your sons and daughters to fight," Moulton said. "We must have an effective, strategic response on our terms and our timeline."

Experts caution that any strikes against Iranian forces inside Iran could force Tehran to respond forcefully, escalating the situation in a way that could drag the United States into a major Middle East war.

Jonathan Lord, director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security, said striking directly inside Iran would raise questions for Tehran about regime survival.

"When you do things overtly you represent a major escalation for the Iranians," Lord said.

Charles Lister of the Washington-based Middle East Institute said a likely response would be to go after a significant target or high-value militant from Iran-backed groups in Iraq or Syria.

"What happened this morning was on a totally different level than anything these proxies have done in the past two to three months... (but) despite all of the calls to do something in Iran, I don't see this administration taking that bait," Lister said.

"Unless the US is prepared for an all out war, what does attacking Iran get us," the official said.

Israel had hit Iranian targets in Syria for years, without dissuading Iran, including four Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officials in Damascus.

The United States has also struck Iranian-linked targets outside of Iran in recent months.  

But Lister said the US had gone after Iranians outside of Iran in the past, like the 2020 strike against top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and only yielded a response during a limited period of time.

"So to an extent, if you go hard enough and high enough, we have a track record of showing that Iran can blink first," Lister said.

According to a Reuter report, Biden's response options could range anywhere from targeting Iranian forces outside to even inside Iran, or opting for a more cautious retaliatory attack solely against the militants responsible.

The US forces in the Middle East have been attacked more than 150 times in Iraq, Syria, Jordan and off the coast of Yemen since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October.

But until Sunday's attack on a remote outpost known as Tower 22 near Jordan's northeastern border with Syria, the strikes had not killed the US troops nor wounded so many. That allowed Biden the political space to mete out US retaliation, inflicting costs on militants without risking a direct war with Tehran.

Republicans accused Biden of letting American forces become sitting ducks, waiting for the day when a drone or missile would evade base defenses. They say that day came on Sunday, when a single one-way attack drone struck near base barracks early in the morning.

"He left our troops as sitting ducks," said Republican US Senator Tom Cotton. "The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran's terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East."

The Republican who leads the US military oversight committee in the House of Representatives, Representative Mike Rogers, also called for action against Tehran.

"It's long past time for President Biden to finally hold the terrorist Iranian regime and their extremist proxies accountable for the attacks they've carried out," Rogers said.

Former President Donald Trump portrayed the attack as a consequence of Joe Biden's weakness and surrender.

One Democrat openly voiced concern that Biden's strategy of containing the Israel-Hamas conflict to Gaza was failing.

 

 

 

ICJ Ruling: Greatest political dilemma for Joe Biden

In both a national and international context, the ICJ decision poses a huge problem for the Biden administration. White House and State Department officials took the absolute position immediately after South Africa filed their petition to the ICJ that the claim of genocide was meritless.

A close to unanimous court ruling that Israel’s assault on Gaza is plausibly genocidal — and with the singular US judge standing with the majority — that dismissive attitude, and related claims that ​the UN is biased against Israel will not get much traction.

“The much-anticipated decision by the International Court of Justice ​marks the greatest moment in the history of the court” says Richard Falk, a noted international law professor and former United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

It strengthens the claims of international law to be respected by all sovereign states — not just some, Falk says about the ICJ’s ruling that South Africa’s magisterial presentation of evidence ​was sufficient to conclude Israel may be committing, conspiring to commit, or publicly inciting the commission of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

The ICJ decision gave new strength to South Africa’s groundbreaking accomplishment — demolishing the taboo against holding Israel accountable for its crimes. As South Africa’s foreign ministry put it, “Today marks a decisive victory for the international rule of law and a significant milestone in the search for justice for the Palestinian people.”

“The decision is a momentous one,” says the foreign ministry, noting how important the determination is for the implementation of the international rule of law. ​“South Africa thanks the Court for its swift ruling.”

The decision was a significant victory beyond what most observers hoped for — not only the recognition that Israel’s actions are plausibly genocidal, but because of the imposition of provisional measures based on measures South Africa requested in order to stop Israel’s actions that are continuing to kill and put Palestinians at risk. 

The ruling was also particularly important because of the overwhelming majority of judges who supported it, including the sole US judge on the court. When the president of the court, Judge Joan Donoghue, who was a longtime State Department lawyer before being elected to the ICJ, read out the provisional measures, she included the line-up of how judges voted on each one. And she was among the 15 or 16 out of 17 judges who supported every one. 

 

While judges serve as individuals and are not supposed to represent their governments, there is no question that national allegiances and other political considerations often emerge. In this case, only the judge from Uganda opposed all the court’s measures while the temporary Israeli judge opposed four out of six.

It should not have been a surprise that this preliminary finding recognized that Israel’s war against the entire population of Gaza may well constitute genocide.

The definition, under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, says that two things are required to fulfill that definition: a specific intent to destroy all or part of a racial, ethnic, religious or other group (in this case the Palestinian population of Gaza), and the commission or attempt to commit any one of five specific acts to realize that intent.

South Africa presented evidence that Israel is already committing — and conspiring to commit and inciting commitment — of at least four of those acts: killing, seriously injuring members of the group, creating conditions that make survival of the group impossible, and preventing births within the group.

The ICJ decision was not a full determination of the facts and the law — as usual, those issues in international legal venues take years. This kind of initial finding requires a very low bar only that it is plausible that Israel’s military actions, the siege and more could plausibly be found to constitute genocide.

It took the court only two weeks to come to this ruling, though still too long given the numbers of people the Israeli military is killing on a daily basis. But it still represents a hugely important step that will play a major role in strengthening the growing, broadening movement for Palestinian rights that is now playing such an unprecedented role in U.S. and global politics.

And then the ICJ went further, imposing six provisional measures to try and ensure that the rights of Palestinians might be protected from those actions. The measures imposed by the court say Israel ​shall take all necessary measures to prevent the commission of any of the five acts named in the Genocide Convention, that it ensure that its military forces do not commit any of those acts, that it punish any public incitement to those acts, that it take all measures to provide humanitarian assistance, to prevent the destruction of evidence relevant to the charges of genocide, and to report to the court within one month on what Tel Aviv is doing to abide by the court’s ruling. 

The first measure was the only one weakened by the court. South Africa had requested the immediate suspension of military operations: a cease-fire.

The ICJ language refers only to taking all necessary measures to prevent the five genocidal actions, but without demanding an actual end to the military assault.

However, the Court’s second measure arguably answers that weaker language by keeping to the South African request that Israel make sure that the military does not commit any of the relevant acts — meaning that the IDF should stop killing people and be prevented from doing so.

Not just prevented from killing too many people, as President Joe Biden’s administration and others have urged, but prevented from killing any people.

Axis of resistance as defined by western media

ran's role as leader of Axis of Resistance - which includes the Houthis, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hamas and militias in Iraq and Syria - had to be balanced against avoiding getting sucked into a regional war over Gaza.

Tehran's messaging to - and about - the Houthis requires a measure of deniability about the extent of its control over them - but also an ability to claim some credit for their anti-Israel actions.

Strikes by United States and Britain on Houthi targets have failed to deter the group which controls a large chunk of Yemen including the capital Sanaa and much of the country's Red Sea coast by the Bab al-Mandab strait.

The Houthis, who first emerged in the 1980s as an armed group in opposition to Saudi Arabia in Yemen, are said to be armed, funded and trained by Iran and are part of its anti-West, anti-Israel Axis of Resistance.

As reported by Reuters, a senior US official informed that Washington had asked China to use its leverage with Iran to persuade it to restrain the Houthis, including in conversations Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had this month with senior Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao.

A senior Iranian official said while Chinese officials discussed their concerns thoroughly in the meetings, they never mentioned any requests from Washington.

On January 14, China's foreign minister Wang Yi called for an end to attacks on civilian ships in the Red Sea - without naming the Houthis or mentioning Iran - and the maintenance of supply chains and the international trade order.

Victor Gao, chair professor at China's Soochow University, said China, as the world's biggest trading nation, was disproportionately affected by the shipping disruption and restoring stability in the Red Sea was a priority.

Gao, a former Chinese diplomat and an adviser to oil giant Saudi Aramco, said Beijing would view Israel's treatment of the Palestinians as the root cause of the Red Sea crisis and would not want to publicly ascribe blame to the Houthis.

A diplomat familiar with the matter said China had been talking to Iran about the issue but it was unclear how seriously Tehran was taking Beijing's advice.

Two officials in the Yemeni government, an enemy of the Houthis, said they were aware that several countries, including China, had sought to influence Iran to rein the Houthis in.

Analysts Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group and Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said China had potential leverage over Iran because of its oil purchases and because Iran was hoping to attract more Chinese direct investment in future.

Both said China had so far been reluctant to use its leverage, for several reasons.

"China prefers to free-ride on the US safeguarding freedom of navigation in the Red Sea by bloodying the Houthis' nose," said Vaez, adding that Beijing was also aware that Iran did not have total control over its Yemeni allies.

=============

Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said on Thursday that Iran to date had not conveyed any message from China about scaling back attacks.

"They will not inform us of such a request, especially since Iran's stated position is to support Yemen. It condemned the American-British strikes on Yemen, and considered Yemen's position honourable and responsible," he said.

The stakes are high for Iran as China is one of the few powers capable of providing the billions of dollars of investment Tehran needs to maintain the capacity of its oil sector and keep its economy afloat.

China's influence was evident in 2023 when it facilitated an agreement between Iran and regional rival Saudi Arabia to end years of hostilities.

There are robust economic ties between China and Iran, Beijing's influence on Tehran's geopolitical decisions was not absolute.

Iranian state media says Chinese firms have only invested US$185 million since then. State media also said last year that Iranian non-oil exports to China fell 68% in the first five months of 2023 while Iran's imports from China rose 40%.

By contrast, Chinese companies committed last year to invest billions in Saudi Arabia after the countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in December 2022.

While China could not be ignored, Tehran had other priorities to consider and its decisions were shaped by a complex interplay of factors.

Regional alliances and priorities as well as ideological considerations contribute significantly to Tehran's decisions.

Iran has to adopt a nuanced strategy when it came to the Gaza war, as well as the Houthi attacks, and that Tehran would not abandon its allies.

 

 

US and UK nationals ordered to leave Yemen

Yemen's Houthi authorities have ordered the US and British staff of the United Nations and Sanaa-based humanitarian organizations to leave the country within a month, a document and a Houthi official said on Wednesday.

The decision follows strikes by the United States and Britain, with support from other nations, against military targets of the group, which has been launching attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea that is says are linked to Israel.

The US government last week also returned the Houthis to a list of terrorist groups as Washington tries to stem attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis have said their attacks are in solidarity with the Palestinians as Israel bombards Gaza.

"The ministry ... would like to stress that you must inform officials and workers with US and British citizenships to prepare to leave the country within 30 days," said a letter sent by the Houthi foreign ministry to the UN's acting humanitarian coordinator in Yemen, Peter Hawkins.

The letter also ordered foreign organisations to not hire American and British citizens for Yemen's operations.

Houthi top negotiator Mohammed Abdulsalam confirmed the letter's authenticity to Reuters.

The US embassy said in a statement it was aware of reports about the letter but "cannot speak on behalf of the UN or humanitarian organizations in Yemen as to what they may have received from Houthi 'authorities'".

The British embassy said staff had not yet been told to leave and the mission was in close contact with the UN on the issue.

"The UN provide vital assistance to the Yemeni people ... via the very sea routes that the Houthis are jeopardizing," the British mission in Yemen said in a statement. "Nothing should be done that hinders their ability to deliver," it added.

The Houthi movement controls much of Yemen after nearly a decade of war against a US-backed coalition. The war has shifted to a no-war, no-peace stalemate as the fighting has largely stopped, but both parties have failed to renew formally a UN-brokered ceasefire.

US and British warplanes, ships and submarines have launched dozens of air strikes across Yemen in retaliation for Houthi attacks as container vessels have been forced to divert from the Red Sea, the fastest freight route from Asia to Europe.

US and British forces on Tuesday targeted a Houthi underground storage site as well as missile and surveillance capabilities, the Pentagon said.

 

 

US-led attacks on Yemen an exercise in futility

The United States and British operations against Houthi militants threatening ships in the Red Sea are making matters worse, China’s envoy to the European Union warned.

“They can only escalate the tension and it’ll not guarantee or maintain the safe passage of the commercial vessels,” Fu Cong said in an interview with Bloomberg. “It’ll even make the passage more dangerous.”

US Central Command forces conducted military strikes Wednesday against two Houthi anti-ship missiles, the latest in a series of efforts to diminish the group’s ability disrupt trade.

Hundreds of vessel operators that cross the Red Sea to access the Suez Canal as they move cargo between Asia, the US and Europe are avoiding the shortcut and taking the longer southern route around Africa.

It’s a massive diversion that’s delaying delivery of billions of dollars in goods, adding to costs and carbon emissions, and fueling fears of broader economic fallout, according to today’s Bloomberg Big Take. 

As the US and UK naval operations continue, the EU is moving ahead with its own plans to established a naval operation in the Red Sea to protect commercial shipping, but it’s still working out the details.

Fu, who is China’s top envoy in Brussels, said the Houthi attacks are a spillover from the Gaza crisis, where Israel has conducted its own military operations against Hamas militants who attacked, kidnapped and killed Israeli citizens on October 07, 2023.

Fu urged the international community, and the US in particular, to exercise more leverage or pressure on the Israeli authorities to stop the indiscriminate bombing of Gaza and in particular the civilians.

“Common sense will tell us that by escalating the tension, you will only aggravate the situation and you cannot resolve the problem with the approach that the US and UK are taking,” Fu said.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

Israel undergoing profound transformation

At the start of October 2023, Israel could look forward in coming years to a growth rate most high-income economies would be more than happy with, as the IMF projected annual rates in excess of 3% for 2024-27.

There were certainly areas of concern, the Israeli government’s populist agenda and divisive judicial overhaul had sparked fears of capital, companies and talent being driven abroad. But then came a much bigger shock, with the attacks by Hamas — labeled a terrorist group by the EU and US — on Israel, and Tel Aviv’s subsequent invasion of Gaza.

Israel has now undergone a profound transformation, temporarily putting aside its focus on startups and wealth in favor of fostering a wartime culture built on patriotism and unity.

Immediately following the massacre, hundreds of thousands of soldiers were sent to the fronts, leaving jobs unfilled and companies unproductive.

GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 is estimated to have plummeted by 19%. JPMorgan economists cut their tally for growth last year to 2.7% from 3.3% on the eve of the October 07, 2023 attacks, and for 2024 to 2% from 2.7%.

While almost half of Israel’s deployed reservists have returned home in the past several weeks — allowing companies to reboot and helping the vital technology sector to rebound — other parts of the labor force face more severe challenges.

Hospitality and tourism remain devastated. Nearly half of construction sites are still shut as tens of thousands of Palestinian workers haven’t been permitted to return to Israel to work.

The Bank of Israel forecasts that the conflict will cost about 10% of the country’s estimated GDP of US$530 billion this year, and that Israel’s revenue will decline by 2% as a result of fewer taxes and licensing fees.

Eylon Penchas, who runs a private equity firm near Tel Aviv, is among those adjusting plans. Penchas was due to acquire an industrial company in the southern city of Sderot before it was among those attacked on October 07. Sderot was evacuated. The acquisition was cancelled.

At the same time, Erez Shachar, a managing partner at Qumra Capital, says the business community has been galvanized by what it sees as a new sense of purpose. “There’s a very clear understanding in our industry that we are an essential part of the security of Israel,” he says.

Among the questions about Israel’s economy going forward is whether it will be as internationally connected, as the country rethinks its relationship to the outside world.

The perception that the US universities and global media outlets are Hamas apologists willing to promote anti-Semitism is now so widespread that it has become a recurring punchline on Israel’s Saturday Night Live-like Eretz Nehederet.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

New Israeli mantra: Iran trying to distract world from its nuclear program

Speaking at The Jerusalem Post’s Israel Summit, leading US Evangelist Dr. Mike Evans said that the Hamas massacre on October 07, 2023 was a preemptive attack on the State of Israel by Iran, via Hamas, its proxy. Evans stated that Iran authorized the attack to divert attention from its dream of developing nuclear weapons.

“Iran is trying to exhaust Israel and distract Israel. They’re trying to exhaust the world and distract the world to keep their eyes off of Iran going atomic. Iran will be an atomic nuclear state by November of this year (2024), when the US presidential election takes place, and it wants a nuclear umbrella of Russian planes flying over Iranian airspace similar to what they do in Syria as a quid pro quo for its drones and missiles helping Russian’s war against Ukraine,” he said.

“If this happens, the Gulf States will begin a nuclear arms race and will be paving the way for Armageddon. Nineteen terrorists attacked America on September 11, 2001,” said Evans. “You can be certain that Iran has more than 190 Hezbollah sleeper cells waiting for the green light to come in through the Mexican border to America.”

Evans said that two years before the Abraham Accords, at the 2018 Jerusalem Post Summit, he had predicted that five to six Arab countries would be signing peace agreements with Israel.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu has built a bridge among these Muslim countries,” he stated, “and that alliance is not going to end because of the Gaza crisis you are in now. But the Gaza war is only the welcome mat to a Persian Pandora’s box.”

Evans provided a comprehensive list of the numerous ways in which the Friends of Zion Heritage Center in Jerusalem is helping the State of Israel during the war.

The organization has hosted evacuated families from the South in its apartment complex, organized free events for evacuees and their families, provided vouchers valued at thousands of shekels to evacuated families, and held special events for them twice a week at the FOZ Heritage Center.

Friends of Zion help wounded soldiers and tend to their needs, provides food and entertainment to Holocaust survivors, and renovated and repurposed a bomb shelter for the activities of Holocaust survivors.

“We are fighting a media war,” says Evans, “and it’s a real war that we’ve got to win together.”

In that spirit, Evans and Friends of Zion reported the events of October 07 from the field and hosted journalists and influencers who expressed their support for Israel.

FOZ is fighting a social network war with over 700 posts, many with over 4 million viewers, to win the hearts and minds of 40% of the globe that gets its misinformation on social networks.

 

US Lawmakers Slam Strikes on Yemen

US lawmakers said Thursday that the Biden administration's barrage of airstrikes in Yemen—launched in coordination with American allies but without congressional approval—was blatantly unconstitutional and dangerous, heightening the risk of a full-blown regional conflict, reports Common Dreams.

"This is illegal and violates Article I of the Constitution," Cori Bush wrote on social media following the strikes. "The people do not want more of our taxpayer dollars going to endless war and the killing of civilians. Stop the bombing and do better by us."

The Biden administration said the airstrikes, which it characterized as a response to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea, hit more than 60 targets in Yemen. Administration officials reportedly briefed congressional leaders on its plans to bomb Yemen, but there was no formal authorization from lawmakers.

"This is an unacceptable violation of the Constitution," said Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. "Article 1 requires that military action be authorized by Congress."

Rashida Tlaib echoed Jayapal, writing that US President Joe Biden is "violating Article I of the Constitution by carrying out airstrikes in Yemen without congressional approval."

"The American people are tired of endless war," Tlaib added.

Article I of the Constitution states that Congress has the power to declare war, and the War Powers Resolution (WPR) of 1973 seeks to constrain the president's ability to take unilateral military action. As Brian Egan and Tess Bridgeman have explained, the War Powers Resolution "does not authorize the president to use force," calling the belief that it does "a common misperception."

"It takes a limited view of the president's authority to introduce US armed forces into such situations in the absence of congressional authorization or an attack on the United States," Egan and Bridgeman noted.

The WPR states that, within 48 hours of a military action, the president must deliver a report to Congress explaining the rationale and legal authority under which such an action was launched. The statute clarifies that the president can only take military action under three circumstances: "(1) a declaration of war, (2) specific statutory authorization, or (3) a national emergency created by attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces."

In a statement, US President Joe Biden called the Yemen strikes defensive, signaling the administration's intention to invoke Article II of the Constitution as its legal foundation for Thursday's bombing campaign. Article II designates the president as commander-in-chief of the U.S. armed forces, and it has been used by multiple administrations as a blank check for military action.

Yemen's Houthis have been targeting ships in the Red Sea since October, when Israel launched its devastating assault on the Gaza Strip in response to a deadly Hamas-led attack.

The Houthis say they are acting to prevent genocide by blockading ships headed for Israel.

The US and allied nations have been working to repel Houthi attacks on commercial vessels since October, shooting down Houthi drones and missiles and sinking Houthi ships in the Red Sea.

The White House said Thursday that Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have had very little impact on the US economy.

Stephen Miles, the president of Win Without War, called the US strikes on Yemen "deeply troubling," arguing that "it's an action clearly at odds with both the Constitution and the War Powers Resolution."

"Congressional authorization isn't some sort of courtesy, it's a legal requirement for this kind of act," Miles wrote. "And since we're all about to hear a whole lot about 'self-defense' let's be very clear.

Under the WPR, presidents are required to seek authorization before knowingly introducing US forces into where combat may become imminent. It was written expressly for situations like this."

Barbara Lee said Thursday that the worsening cycle of violence in the Middle East is why she "called for a cease-fire early."

"Violence only begets more violence," Lee added. "We need a cease-fire now to prevent deadly, costly, catastrophic escalation of violence in the region."

 

Netanyahu and his war cabinet must be punished for committing genocide

Human rights defenders and legal experts on Thursday lauded what many called South Africa's "compelling" opening presentation at the International Court of Justice in The Hague in a case accusing Israel of genocide against Palestinians in the embattled Gaza Strip.

In a bid to obtain an ICJ emergency order for the suspension of Israel's relentless 97-day assault on Gaza, South African jurists including Justice Minister Ronald Lamola argued that Israel is violating four articles of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, commonly called the Genocide Convention. The landmark 1948 treaty—enacted, ironically, the same year as the modern state of Israel was born, largely through the ethnic cleansing of Palestine's Arabs—defines genocide as acts intended "to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group."

South African lawyers detailed Israel's conduct in the war, including the killing and wounding of more than 80,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, forcibly displacing over 85% of the besieged enclave's 2.3 million people, and inflicting conditions leading to widespread starvation and disease. They also cited at length statements by Israeli officials calling for the destruction and even nuclear annihilation of Gaza in their presentations, which eschewed graphic imagery in favor of arguing "clear legal rights."

"In its opening argument thus far, South Africa has made a compelling case showing how the genocidal statements by [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and other senior officials were interpreted as official orders by Israeli forces in their attacks against Gaza," US investigative journalist Jeremy Scahill said on social media.

"Beyond the citations of the vast civilian deaths and injuries caused by Israel in Gaza, [South Africa's] lawyers argued effectively that Israel's 'evacuation' orders were in and of themselves genocidal, demanding the immediate flight of a million people, including patients in hospitals," Scahill continued.

"What becomes crystal clear listening to the openly genocidal words of Netanyahu and other Israeli officials is that they know exactly what they are saying," he added. "And they are comfortable saying these things publicly because they know the US will shield them from accountability."

Left-wing author and activist and former South African parliamentarian Andrew Feinstein said, "South Africa's presentation to the ICJ thus far has been exceptional, overwhelming, and devastating," opining that "the only way the ICJ doesn't impose interim measures is if the judges are open to pressure from 'the West.'"

"South Africa's lawyers have done the nonracial, post-apartheid country proud," he added.

Legal scholar Nimer Sultany, a Palestinian citizen of Israel, called South Africa's presentation "compellingly argued and powerfully presented."

"Given the court's case law, and given the lower threshold required for issuing provisional measures, it will be very surprising if the court does not issue provisional measures against Israel," Sultany asserted.

"This also should prompt reflection amongst all those governments and media outlets who supported [Israel's war,] because they have been supporting a genocide," he added.

Sultany and numerous other observers said the most powerful presentation of the day was made by Irish lawyer and case adviser Blinne Ní Ghrálaigh, who delivered South Africa's closing statement.

Israel—some of whose officials have condemned South Africa's case as a meritless "blood libel"—is scheduled to present its defense on Friday. Israeli jurists are expected to focus heavily on the atrocities committed by Hamas-led attackers who killed more than 1,100 Israelis and took around 240 others hostage on October 07, 2023. They will likely argue that the country has a right to defend itself, and that it is seeking to eliminate Hamas, not the Palestinian people.

While an emergency order from the World Court would not be enforceable, it would represent a major international embarrassment for Israel, which is increasingly isolated on the world stage.

A growing number of nations including Brazil, Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, Venezuela, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Bolivia, Jordan, and Bangladesh are supporting South Africa's case, as are the Arab League, more than 1,250 international human rights and civil society group, and progressive US Congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Cori Bush.

"Whatever the outcome, we are witnessing an amazing moment of rule of international law history," said Amnesty International secretary general Agnès Callamard.

Hezbollah targets northern Israel

Heavy fire from Lebanon targeted northern Israel on Saturday, the Israeli military said, adding it had responded by striking a terrorist cell that took part in the attack, as top US and European diplomats sought to stop spillover from the Gaza war, reports Reuters.

Shortly after rocket sirens sounded across northern Israel, the military said that approximately 40 launches from Lebanon toward the area of Meron in northern Israel were identified.

There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

Powerful Lebanese armed group Hezbollah said it hit a key Israeli observation post early on Saturday with 62 rockets as a preliminary response to the killing of Hamas' deputy chief earlier this week.

Tensions have been high since Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed by a drone on Tuesday in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the stronghold of Hamas' Iranian-backed Lebanese ally Hezbollah, in an attack widely attributed to sworn foe Israel.

The head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said on Friday Lebanon would be exposed to more Israeli operations if his group did not respond to the killing.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the European Union's senior diplomat Josep Borrell began a new diplomatic push on Friday to stop the spillover from the three-month-old Gaza war into Lebanon, the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and Red Sea shipping lanes.

Israel and Hezbollah often trade fire across the border, the West Bank is boiling with emotion and the Iran-aligned Houthis seem determined to continue attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes until Israel halts its bombardment of Gaza.

The offensive, aimed at wiping out the Islamist movement that rules Gaza, has killed 22,600 people, according to Palestinian health officials, and devastated the densely populated enclave of 2.3 million people.

There has been no let up in the conflict despite several trips to the region by Blinken and other senior diplomats.

The official Palestinian WAFA news agency reported on Saturday that 18 Palestinians were killed by an Israeli attack on a house east of Khan Younis in Gaza.

Israel, which says it has killed 8,000 militants since the October 07, 2023 Hamas attack, has announced a more targeted approach as it faces global pressure to limit huge civilian casualties.

Israel has listed 175 soldiers as killed in action since its offensive began.

Blinken is due to visit the West Bank during his week-long tour starting on Friday in Turkey, which has offered to mediate. He will also hold talks in Israel, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Iran stations warship in Red Sea as US aircraft carrier leaves

Iran's Alborz warship has passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and entered the Red Sea, the country's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Monday. Iranian warships have been operating in the region to secure shipping lanes since 2009, Tasnim said.

Iranian-backed groups have not reduced their attacks in the Middle East. On the opposite, pro-Iranian media sought to highlight how the attacks are increasing. Al-Mayadeen media, which is pro-Iran, claimed that there were attacks targeting Al-Asad based in Iraq and Shaddadi in Syria, two places where US forces are located. The US is in Syria and Iraq to help defeat ISIS.

Reports on December 31, 2023 said that the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier is heading out of the Mediterranean is also raising eyebrows in Iran and the region. While Gaza fighting appears to be reduced slightly, Iran continues to want to manage the conflict against Israel. Iranian Tasnim ran a long interview about the role of Qasem Soleimani in the region. Although the interview is ostensibly about Soleimani, who was killed in January 2020 by the US, the report examines recent details about the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen targeting ships and Palestinian terror groups targeting Israel.

The article raises questions about presence of US aircraft carriers in the region. There were two carriers in the region, the Eisenhower and Ford.

The US had sent the second carrier after the October 07, 2023 attack to deter Hezbollah and others from escalating attacks.

The Iranian regime's view is that these naval assets have not been able to prevent the Houthis in Yemen from continuing attacks on ships. However, a US helicopter destroyed three small Houthi boats over the weekend, indicating that the Houthis are taking losses.

The story about the US carrier leaving the region was covered in Al-Mayadeen media, which is pro-Iran, showing that pro-Iran figures in the region are watching this development closely.

South Africa initiates case against Israel at ICJ

"No one knows apartheid like those who fought it before," said one Palestinian rights advocate on Friday in response to the news that South Africa has taken a historic new step to hold Israel accountable for its relentless bombardment and violent years long occupation of Gaza—calling on the International Court of Justice to declare that Israel has breached its obligations under the Genocide Convention.

The Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) in South Africa said it is gravely concerned with the plight of civilians caught in the present Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip due to the indiscriminate use of force and forcible removal of inhabitants and called on the ICJ to take action to force Israel to immediately cease its current attacks on Gaza's 2.3 million residents.

The motion was filed as the death toll in Gaza surpassed 21,500 people and tens of thousands of displaced residents fled an Israeli ground offensive, as airstrikes continued in southern Gaza.

Noting that South Africa has consistently condemned all attacks on civilians, including the assault by Hamas on southern Israel on October 7, the country's representatives at the ICJ said Israel's bombardment of Gaza is genocidal in character because they are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the Palestinian national, racial, and [ethnic] group.

"The acts in question include killing Palestinians in Gaza, causing them serious bodily and mental harm, and inflicting on them conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction," reads the application filed at the ICJ.

South Africa took its latest action regarding Israel less than two weeks after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the government had submitted documents to the International Criminal Court (ICC) supporting its demand, made in November with several other countries that the court should investigate Israel for war crimes.

While the ICC prosecutes individuals and governments for committing war crimes, the ICJ operates under the United Nations to rule on disputes between countries. The ICJ's orders are binding for Israel, as the country is a UN member state.

South Africa has joined international human rights experts—including the UN's top expert on human rights in occupied Palestine—in saying Israel's blockade of Gaza and violent treatment of those in the enclave and the West Bank is a form of apartheid, comparing Israeli policies to the racial segregation that was imposed for nearly five decades by the white minority that controlled South Africa.

Last month, the government voted to suspend diplomatic ties with Israel until Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government agrees to a permanent humanitarian ceasefire.

"South Africa has continuously called for an immediate and permanent cease-fire and the resumption of talks that will end the violence arising from the continued belligerent occupation of Palestine," the government said Friday.

Journalist Jeremy Scahill was among those who recognized the significance of South Africa's application at the ICJ, noting that the country fought for its own liberation against an apartheid regime supported for decades by the US, which is backing Israel's assault on Gaza despite international outcry and protests within the United States.

"The UN Genocide Convention must be upheld. Israel must be held accountable," said former UN human rights official Craig Mokhiber, who resigned from the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in October in protest of the UN's failure to stop Israel's massacre of civilians. International law must be preserved.

At the ICJ, South Africa called for an expedited hearing on Israel's actions and asked the court to indicate provisional measures under the Genocide Convention to "protect against further, severe, and irreparable harm to the rights of the Palestinian people.

Article 2 of the Genocide Convention, adopted in 1948, states that genocide includes acts committed with the intent to destroy, either in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.

Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst, pointed out Friday that the three leading Israeli officials have declared the intent to wipe out Gaza's population.

Bishara noted that Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in October that all civilians in Gaza are responsible for Hamas' attack on southern Israel, days after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the military would collectively punish the enclave's population, who he called human animals.

Netanyahu also said this week that so-called voluntary migration of Gaza residents is the ultimate objective of Israel's assault.

On Friday, the spokesperson for Israel's Foreign Affairs Ministry, Lior Haiat, dismissed South Africa's motion as baseless and a despicable and contemptuous exploitation of the court.

Despite top officials' recent statements, Haiat said the government has made it clear that the residents of the Gaza Strip are not the enemy.

Omar Shakir, Israel and Palestine director for Human Rights Watch, called South Africa's move "a vital step to propel greater support for impartial justice."

 

 

Hamas smashing Israeli army, says Sinwar

Hamas fighters are inflicting heavy losses on the Israeli military and will not submit to their conditions, the group's leader in Gaza, Yahya al-Sinwar, said in a message to the group's members outside of the territory, reports Middle East Eye. 

In a letter shared by Al Jazeera Arabic, Sinwar reassured the Palestinian group's leadership abroad about the armed wing's achievement after two-and-a-half months of Israeli bombing and ground operations.

He claimed that 5,000 Israeli soldiers and officers have been killed and wounded since the ground operations began in late October. One-third of them, around 1,660, were killed, he said, while the rest have been permanently disabled or seriously wounded. 

The Israeli military says 156 soldiers have been killed in ground combat so far, and 600 more have been wounded.

Israeli media outlets have reported a significantly higher number of wounded soldiers, citing discrepancies between figures provided by the army and cases documented by hospitals.

Sinwar added that Palestinian fighters, who are using guerrilla warfare tactics, such as snipers, anti-tank missiles and explosive devices, have completely or partially damaged at least 750 Israeli armoured vehicles, including tanks.  

"Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades are fighting a fierce and unprecedented battle against the Israeli occupation forces," Al Jazeera reported Sinwar as saying. 

He added that the brigades are smashing the Israeli army and will continue to do so, and that they will not submit to the conditions of the occupation. 

The Qassam Brigades are the largest Palestinian faction fighting the Israelis in Gaza. Others include Saraya al-Quds (the armed wing of Islamic Jihad) and the smaller Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, which is aligned with the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.

Israel has reportedly proposed another temporary pause in fighting during which a group of Israelis could be released from Gaza in exchange for the release of some Palestinian prisoners. 

Hamas has publicly rejected the offer, saying no prisoner exchanges will take place before an agreement is reached to end the war permanently and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. 

While the unprecedented scale of Israeli bombing has killed more than 20,000 people and pushed Gaza to the brink of a humanitarian disaster, Hamas fighters still appear able to inflict heavy losses on the Israeli military. 

A total of 14 soldiers were killed over the weekend across the Gaza Strip, including in areas the army claims to have control over.

Since October 07, the Israeli army has released the names of 489 soldiers who have been killed in combat or died during the course of operations. That number includes former captives who likely died in Israeli bombardment.

Hamas and other Palestinian factions regularly publish videos of their attacks on Israeli positions, including images of Israeli weapons and ammunition seized during the fighting.

The Israeli military claims to have killed thousands of Hamas fighters and destroyed many tunnel shafts. However, no serious damage to the group's fighting capabilities has been acknowledged by the group so far. 

 

 

Moving Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai

According to a write up published in The Jerusalem Post, moving Palestinians to the Sinai Peninsula has been termed the ideal solution to resolve Gaza crisis.

The writer believes, the Sinai Peninsula comprises one of the most suitable places on Earth to provide the people of Gaza with hope and a peaceful future.

The 365 km² Gaza Strip has remained a flash point in Israel-Egypt relations since its conquest by the Egyptian Army in 1948 as part of Egypt’s failed attempt to annihilate the newly-born State of Israel.

Egypt invaded Israel along two main axes, reaching the outskirts of Jerusalem and only 20 km. short of Tel Aviv, but the Israel Defense Forces pushed off this offensive. These battles generated a wave of refugees that found haven in the Gaza Strip, which remained under Egyptian military control until 1967.

Since 1948, and up until the current partial release of some of the Israeli babies, children, and women taken hostage by Hamas terrorists, the Egyptians have been significantly involved in the politics and economy of the Gaza Strip.

The Egyptians locked the residents of Gaza and the refugees of the 1948 War in the Gaza Strip, and, with the backing of the United Nations, still deny them the right to rebuild their lives in all Arab countries, including in the adjacent Sinai Peninsula of Egypt. This harsh policy was one of the major and long-term catalysts for the intensifying human stagnation of now circa 1.8 million inhabitants within the Strip.

According to the writer, beyond the abduction, mutilation, burning, rape, and murder of 1,200 Israelis and other nationals, the Hamas terrorist invasion of Israel on October 07 destroyed many Israeli agricultural villages. This barbarian murder-fest led the IDF to conquer the northern Gaza Strip and the Hamas-infested Gaza metropolis as part of Israel’s goal to destroy Hamas terror capabilities. As civilians were ordered to move south, the southern Gaza Strip became a haven for most of Gaza’s residents.

The battles in the northern Strip generated significant damage and destruction of buildings utilized by Hamas. Damage to the immense terror-tunnel system further destabilized the metropolis’s substrate. Major portions of the metropolis are considerably incapacitated and cannot be simply fixed. Rather, the damaged and destroyed structures must be completely torn down. The tunneled – and consequently exploded and bulldozed – soil must undergo extensive environmental and engineering rehabilitation.

In other words, the metropolis has to be fully evacuated, redesigned, monitored, and only then rebuilt to provide habitable and economic conducive conditions. Such an effort requires unique expertise and immense funding and will take considerable time that cannot be calculated.

Therefore, the war is anticipated to end with a unique humanitarian challenge of how to construct a better future for the people of Gaza.

Since Israel’s unconditional turnover of the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority in 2005, Gazans have completely failed to generate a productive Palestinian-administered entity, despite generous economic support, mainly from America, Europe, Qatar, and the UN.

This may be associated with the coupled effect of an intrinsic hatred-focused, fanatic, anti-Israel Islamic culture, and links with Iran, along with limited geographical conditions, poor natural and human resources, and a high population density.

This situation raises serious doubts that any type of future self-sustainable efforts will yield a stable and free socioeconomic culture and promising future in the Strip. A creative solution is needed ASAP.

The adjoining Sinai Peninsula, in essence, is the exact opposite of the Gaza Strip, comprising one of the most suitable places on Earth to provide the people of Gaza with hope and a peaceful future.

Covering 60,000 km² (165 times larger than the Strip), its population is barely around one-third of Gaza’s, making it one of the emptiest places in the Mediterranean region.

Although under Egyptian governance, it is an integral geographic-geological continuation of Israel and the Gaza Strip, with which it shares a 200 km. and 14 km. long border, respectively.

Therefore, the geographic setting of the Mediterranean coast of northern Sinai is also a physical continuation of the Gaza Strip with ample, shallow groundwater in the northeast.

Due to the intensive smuggling of arms to Hamas via Sinai in the last few years, Egypt fully destroyed the residential infrastructure bordering the Gaza Strip, and expelled the local population.

In northwestern Sinai, Egypt has invested immensely in building for agriculture, including freshwater canals.

Furthermore, Egypt has surprisingly wired Sinai with excellent infrastructure, overshooting its civilian and industrial needs. These include an array of paved roads and highways connected by tunnels beneath the Suez Canal to mainland Egypt.

The facts demonstrate that the northern Sinai Peninsula is an ideal location to develop a spacious resettlement for the people of Gaza. Its open areas, along with the existing infrastructure, can easily host large-scale development projects that, if led by the Chinese and supported by local labor, for example, can easily mature in just one to two years.

Firm American and international guidance lined with financial and operative support can surely pave the way to this creative and prosperous solution and jointly help Egypt’s dire demographic and economic situation that is challenging its political authority.

Israel will also be cooperative in sharing its hi-tech-oriented agricultural capabilities with Egypt as it did following the Peace Treaty in the early 1980s.

If Egypt bravely chooses to change its rigid, old-fashioned policy of keeping Palestinian Gazans in constant distress and consents to such an endeavor, its geopolitical gains will be threefold: It will be hailed by the international community as the savior of the dire plight of Gazans; it will strengthen its status as a leader of the Arab world; and it will finally fulfill its 30+-year-old plan to settle the Sinai and strengthen its control of this zone.

However, history has taught us that Gazans, despite their complaints about their humanitarian situation, may object towards genuine rehabilitation programs. This stubbornness substantially relies on their desire to destroy Israel, which repeatedly comes at their own expense.

The ongoing obliteration of Hamas, which terrorizes Palestinian Authority officials and many Gaza residents, may pave the way to the emergence of the proposed Sinai solution, if presented in a wise and discrete manner that conforms to the Middle East mentality.

 

 

Importance of Bab el-Mandeb

"Peace with the (Zionist) Jews is in Confrontation, Not in Shaking Hands with Them". This was the title of an article featured on Yemen’s Almaseera website on October 06, just a day before Hamas launched an attack on the southern occupied territories. 

This title serves as a window into Yemen's stance, the ongoing actions of the Ansarullah Movement, and their reaction to Israel’s bloodshed in the Gaza Strip.

On October 31, merely three days following Israel's ground offensive in northern Gaza, Yemen directed a barrage of missiles and drones at the southernmost point of the Israeli-occupied territories, specifically targeting Eilat port.

Following this incident, Yemen made a bold announcement, vowing not to permit Israeli and Israeli-bound vessels safe passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.

On November 19, Yemenis reported the seizure of the commercial ship Galaxy Leader, diverting its course towards Yemeni shores, marking the beginning of multiple Yemeni attacks on commercial ships en route to Israeli ports.

The international maritime community has been quick to react, with numerous shipping and cargo companies announcing the suspension of transit through the Red Sea due to what they refer to as Ansarullah’s threats.

Looking at the world map, the significance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in international maritime transport becomes apparent.

Located between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, Bab el-Mandeb stands as one of the most strategic maritime chokepoints worldwide.

After the Strait of Hormuz and Malacca, it is the largest and most pivotal route for oil transportation, with over 6 million barrels of oil, about 4% of the world's total oil flow, passing through daily, mainly bound for Europe. Beyond oil, 30% of the world's natural gas trade traverses this passage.

Passing through this maritime route significantly shortens the shipping routes for vessels circumventing the African continent to reach the Indian Ocean and countries in East and Southeast Asia.

It is a highly desirable and cost-effective route for international shipping and maritime transport companies.

Experts argue that the passage through Bab el-Mandeb reduces transportation costs by at least 15%. Given these considerations, any threat in this strait poses a severe challenge to shipping companies and, consequently, governments.

Increased insurance costs for these shipping companies, coupled with rising oil prices in destination countries and the impact on other commodities in the long term, are undesirable outcomes for any nation.