The US military's success in helping Israel stop a recent massive
wave of Iranian missiles and drones might suggest Washington is well prepared
militarily for whatever comes next as Iran and Israel move from shadow warfare
to direct confrontation.
Current
and former US officials say US forces are not positioned for a major, sustained
Middle East conflict and the Pentagon may have to revisit assumptions about
military needs in the region if the crisis deepens.
"I don't think we have all the forces that we would
want to support Israel if there was a direct war between them and Iran,"
said Michael Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the
Middle East under the Trump administration.
Though
Tehran has indicated it had no plans to retaliate for an apparent Israeli
strike on Friday, the tit-for-tat attacks have raised fears of an unpredictable
regional war that the United States has sought to prevent.
In the months since an attack by Hamas militants on Israel
triggered a war in Gaza that has ignited unrest throughout the Middle East. The
United States has rushed thousands of US service members to a region that had
seen a steadily declining US presence over years.
Many of
those new US troops are on warships and aircraft that move in and out of the
region, and are only temporarily deployed. That US strategy to rely on surge
forces could be tested now Iran and Israel have broken the taboo of open
military strikes against each other.
"What it means for the US military is that I think we
have to revisit this idea of what are the necessary, sustainable military
capabilities that we have to maintain in the region," said Joseph Votel, a
retired four star Army general who led US troops in the Middle East.
Votel and other former officials said the US military's
success in downing Iran's drones and missiles last Saturday was presumably
aided by detailed US intelligence that allowed the Pentagon to anticipate the
timing and targets of Iran's attack.
"I
think the bigger concern is our ability to be responsive over a sustained
period of time," Votel said.
US officials say Iran does not appear to want an all-out war
with Israel, and Tehran has played down Friday's strike. Still, experts warn
the situation is unpredictable, particularly as long as the Israel-Hamas
conflict rages.
US Army General Michael "Erik" Kurilla, the
current head of Central Command, told lawmakers last month that he had
requested more troops than the Pentagon had sent to his region, which President
Joe Biden's administration has said is a lower priority than the challenge from
China.
In written testimony to the House Armed Services Committee,
Kurilla said a dangerous shortfall in US intelligence assets, targeting expertise
and linguists contributes to gaps and seams in our ability to detect and
disrupt plots, increasing freedom of movement for violent extremist
organizations.
Although
Kurilla's comments appeared more focused on Afghanistan, some intelligence
shortfalls have already affected US strategy since the start of the war in
Gaza.
For example, a lack of detail about Houthi weapons
stockpiles before the Iran-backed group started attacking commercial shipping
in the Red Sea has made it hard to determine the effect of months of strikes on
the group's arsenal of missiles and drones, said officials.
Still, sending more US troops to the Middle East and
bolstering intelligence assets longer-term could prove difficult, officials
say.
"Troops are spread around Europe and those that aren't
are going through overdue maintenance cycles," one US official said,
speaking on condition of anonymity.
"And Asia is supposed to be the focus."
Another official said it was still unclear whether the US
military was prepared to pull forces from Asia or Europe, despite the increase
in tensions.
Prior to October, the last time the United States surged
thousands of troops into the Middle East was under former President Donald
Trump, during a series of escalatory actions that culminated in the US killing
of Iran's top general and a retaliatory missile attack by Tehran on a US base
in Iraq.
The
first US official noted that the surge of troops in 2019 and 2020 was possible
because, unlike today, Washington did not have to dedicate so many personnel
and resources to Europe, a new reality following Russia's 2022 invasion of
Ukraine.
Mulroy said the United States should strengthen its position
in the Middle East without abandoning its China-first focus.