Iran: Container shipping line from Chabahar to Indian ports

Spokesman of Iran’s Valfajr Shipping Company says his company is operating a regular container shipping line from Chabahar port to various ports in India.

According to Abbas Kabousi, 15 voyages have been conducted along the mentioned line over the past three months, ISNA reported.

“The first vessel with a full capacity of 550 TEU arrived in Chabahar from Indian ports a few weeks ago and its cargo has been completely unloaded,” Kabousi said, adding that his company is ready to transport more goods between Indian ports and Chabahar port.

The official noted that his company has also been operating some direct lines from Persian Gulf Arab countries to Chabahar port.

“Valfajr Shipping Company has reduced the time of cargo transportation on the route from the southern ports of the Persian Gulf to Chabahar while reducing the freight rate and improving the schedules,” he said.

Kabousi further said the shipping company is ready to launch a direct line from Oman to Chabahar port.

Back in May 2022, Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) announced that three direct container shipping lines were launched from Chabahar Port to Nhava Sheva and Kandla ports in India as well as Jebel Ali Port in United Arab Emirate.

Iran and India had previously launched shipping lines between Chabahar and the Indian ports of Mumbai, and Mundra.

The first shipping route between the two countries was put into operation in 2017 between Iran’s Chabahar port and Mumbai.

In January 2019, Iran and India inaugurated the second direct shipping route which passes through Mumbai, Mundra, Kandla, Chabahar, and finally Bandar Abbas in southern Iran.

India is using the mentioned shipping routes to transit goods to Afghanistan and Persian Gulf nations as well as the countries in Central Asia.

Through Chabahar port India bypasses Pakistan and transport goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia, while Afghanistan can get linked to India via sea.

Iran has awarded India the project for installing and operating modern loading and unloading equipment including mobile harbor cranes in Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar.

The strategic Chabahar port in southeastern Iran is the only ocean port on the Makran coast and it has a special place in the country’s economic affairs.

Back in September 2021, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had called on Central Asian countries to benefit from Chabahar Port capacities for expanding their trade in the region.

 

Israel: Protests against Netanyahu

Tens of thousands of Israelis joined demonstrations on Saturday against judicial reform plans by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's new government that protesters say will threaten democratic checks and balances on ministers by the courts.

The plans, which the government says are needed to curb overreach by activist judges, have drawn fierce opposition from groups including lawyers, and raised concerns among business leaders, widening already deep political divisions in Israeli society.

"They want to turn us into a dictatorship, they want to destroy democracy," the head of the Israeli Bar Association, Avi Chimi said. "They want to destroy judicial authority; there is no democratic country without a judicial authority."

Netanyahu has dismissed the protests, now in their third week, as a refusal by leftist opponents to accept the results of last November's election, which produced one of the most right-wing governments in Israel's history.

The protesters say the future of Israeli democracy is at stake if the government succeeds in pushing through the plans, which would tighten political control over judicial appointments and limit the Supreme Court's powers to overturn government decisions or Knesset laws.

As well as threatening the independence of judges and weakening oversight of the government and parliament, they say the plans will undermine the rights of minorities and open the door to more corruption.

"We are fighting for democracy," said Amnon Miller, 64, among crowds of protesters, many bearing white and blue Israeli flags. "We fought in this country in the army for 30 years for our freedom and we won't let this government take our freedom."

Saturday's protests, which Israeli media said were expected to draw more than 100,000 people to central Tel Aviv, come days after the Supreme Court ordered Netanyahu to fire Interior Minister Aryeh Deri, who leads the religious Shas party, over a recent tax conviction.

The new government, which took office this month, is an alliance between Netanyahu's Likud party and a clutch of smaller religious and hard-right nationalist parties which say they have a mandate for sweeping change.

Netanyahu, who is himself on trial on corruption charges which he denies, has defended the judicial reform plans, which are currently being examined by a parliamentary committee, saying they will restore a proper balance between the three branches of government.

Likud politicians have long accused the Supreme Court of being dominated by leftist judges who they say encroach on areas outside their authority for political reasons. The court's defenders say it plays a vital role in holding the government to account in a country that has no formal constitution.

A survey released by the Israel Democracy Institute last week showed trust in the Supreme Court was markedly higher among left-wing Israelis than among those on the right, but that there was no overall support for weakening the court's powers.

German caution on Ukraine arms rooted in political culture

Germany became one of Ukraine’s leading weapons suppliers in the 11 months since Russia’s invasion, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz also gained a reputation for hesitating to take each new step — generating impatience among allies.

Berlin’s perceived foot-dragging, most recently on the Leopard 2 battle tanks that Kyiv has long sought, is rooted at least partly in a post-World War II political culture of military caution, along with present-day worries about a possible escalation in the war.

On Friday, Germany inched closer to a decision to deliver the tanks, ordering a review of its Leopard stocks in preparation for a possible green light.

There was still no commitment, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius rejected the suggestion that Germany was standing in the way and said, “We have to balance all the pros and contras before we decide things like that, just like that.”

It’s a pattern that has been repeated over the months as Scholz first held off pledging new, heavier equipment, then eventually agreed to do so.

Most recently, Germany said in early January that it would send 40 Marder armored personnel carriers to Ukraine — doing so in a joint announcement with the US, which pledged 50 Bradley armored vehicles.

That decision followed months of calls for Berlin to send the Marder and stoked pressure for it to move up another step to the Leopard tank.

“There is a discrepancy between the actual size of the commitment and weapons deliveries — it’s the second-largest European supplier — and the hesitancy with which it is done,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a Berlin-based senior analyst with the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank.

Scholz, an unshakably self-confident politician with a stubborn streak and little taste for bowing to public calls for action, has stuck resolutely to his approach. He has said that Germany won’t go it alone on weapons decisions and pointed to the need to avoid NATO becoming a direct party to the war with Russia.

As pressure mounted last week, he declared that he wouldn’t be rushed into important security decisions by excited comments. And he insisted that a majority in Germany supports his government’s calm, well-considered and careful decision-making.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday, Scholz listed some of the equipment Germany has sent to Ukraine, declaring that it marks a profound turning point in German foreign and security policy.

That is, at least to some extent, true. Germany refused to provide lethal weapons before the invasion started, reflecting a political culture rooted in part in the memory of Germany’s own history of aggression during the 20th century — including the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union.

“No German chancellor, of no party, wants to be seen out front in pushing a military agenda — you want to try all other options before you resort to that,” Kleine-Brockhoff said. “And therefore for domestic consumption, it is seen as a positive thing for a German chancellor not to lead on this, to be cautious, to be resistant, and to have tried all other options.”

Scholz does face calls from Germany’s center-right opposition and some in his three-party governing coalition to be more proactive on military aid; less so from his own center-left Social Democratic Party, which for decades was steeped in the legacy of Cold War rapprochement pursued by predecessor Willy Brandt in the early 1970s.

“Scholz decided early on that he does not want to lead militarily on Ukraine assistance,” Kleine-Brockhoff said, though “he wants to be a good ally and part of the alliance and in the middle of the pack.”

But the cautious approach drives allies crazy and raises questions over whether they can count on the Germans, Kleine-Brockhoff acknowledged.

Berlin kept up its caution on the Leopard tank even after Britain announced last week that it would provide Ukraine its own Challenger 2 tanks.

The hesitancy isn’t just an issue between Berlin and Kyiv, since other countries would need Germany’s permission to send their own stocks of German-made Leopards to Ukraine. On Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Warsaw would consider giving its tanks even without Berlin’s permission.

“Consent is of secondary importance here. We will either obtain it quickly, or we will do the right thing ourselves,” Morawiecki said.

British historian Timothy Garton Ash wrote in The Guardian and other newspapers this week that to its credit, the German government’s position on military support for Ukraine has moved a very long way since the eve of the Russian invasion.

But he argued that the tank issue has become a litmus test of Germany’s courage to resist (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s nuclear blackmail, overcome its own domestic cocktail of fears and doubts, and defend a free and sovereign Ukraine, and that Scholz should lead a European Leopard plan.

Whether that will eventually happen remains to be seen. Scholz’s government has insisted on close coordination with the United States, a possible reflection in part of the fact that Germany — unlike Britain and France — relies on the US nuclear deterrent.

On Friday, Scholz’s spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, denied reports that Germany had insisted it would only deliver Leopard tanks if the US sends its own Abrams tanks. He rejected the notion that Berlin is trailing others and insisted it is taking the right approach.

“These are not easy decisions, and they need to be well-weighed,” he said. “And this is about them being sustainable, that all can go along with them and stand behind them — and part of a leadership performance is keeping an alliance together.”

 

Bangladesh: Padma Bridge getting costlier

The long-cherished Padma Bridge is set to cost more as more funds and time is needed to complete the structure even though it is open to the public since June 2022.

At the time of inauguration on June 25, 2022, some works, especially river training, a major component of the project, were incomplete.

Now, the bridges division has sought Tk 2,682.13 crore more and an additional year, according to the revision proposal sent to the Planning Commission for approval.

If the proposal is approved, the bridge, which established a direct connection between the capital and the country’s southwest, will end up costing Tk 32,875.51 crore — more than three times the original estimate.

Project Director Shafiqul Islam cited the increase in the cost of construction materials, depreciation of taka against the dollar, the need for additional money to build power transmission towers and increase in value-added tax and income tax rates due to changes in legislation as the main reasons for the latest round of cost escalation.

The project authorities would need Tk 3,444.89 crore extra but they are clawing back Tk 762.76 crore from several components, including Tk 368.09 crore allocated for resettlement.

Of the sum, Tk 1,665.60 crore would be required for the main bridge, Tk 877.53 crore for river training and Tk 450.29 crore for consultancy services.

“The US dollar traded at Tk 78.3 in the foreign exchange market when we started the works but the rate has escalated since then. We had to spend an additional Tk 500-600 crore for this reason alone,” Islam said.

The government on many occasions has changed VAT and income tax rates.

In the case of foreign contractors, the VAT and income tax have been increased to 15% from 10.5%, so the project authorities have to provide the additional 4.5% as per the contract, he said. This cost the project authorities an additional Tk 687 crore, according to officials.

The project authorities have to spend about Tk 400 crore more for the detailed design and construction of foundations of seven 400KV transmission towers on the Padma.

They will also have to procure some equipment for the operation of the bridge, which will take about Tk 300 crore, he said.

Approved in August 2007, the project was supposed to be implemented at the cost of Tk 10,162 crore within June 2015. In 2011, it went through a major revision that took the project cost to Tk 20,507 crore. After two more changes in expenditure, the project cost rose to Tk 30,193.34 crore. The latest deadline for the project is June this year, including a year as a defect liability period.

Asked about the reason behind the time extension, Islam said they would take up to June this year to complete the river training works.Then, they would require another year for the defects liability period.

A defects liability period is the time period specified in the contract during which a contractor is legally required to return to a construction site to repair any defects which have appeared in that contractor’s work since the date of completion.

“That’s why we sought the deadline extension to June 2024,” Islam added.

As of December 2022, the project saw 95.8% overall progress, with 99.7% and 96.25% progress in main bridge and river training respectively. The project saw 93.68% financial progress.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index plunges 4.8%WoW

Continuation of political uncertainty in the country, following the Punjab and KP government dissolution, kept the market under pressure during the week ended on January 20, 2023.

The KSE-100 index lost 1,915.5 points or 4.8% to end Friday’s trading session at 38,408.0 points. Volumes dried, with daily volumes averaging 143.2 million shares as compared to 183.3 million shares in the earlier week, registering a 22%WoW decline.

On the currency front, the PKR depreciated by 0.66%, ending the week at PKR229.67/US$.

Other major news of week were: 1) July-December 2022 remittances fell 11%YoY to US$14.1 billion, 2) World Bank promised US$615 million for flood-relief work, 3) E&P companies raised alarm on brewing foreign exchange crisis, 4) Barrick Gold plans to start productions in 2028 at Reko Diq mine, 5) GoP to announce RKR200 billion mini-budget to appease IMF, 6) July-November 2022 LSMI output declines 3.58%YoY, 7) FDI plunges 59% during first half of the current financial year, 8) Current Account deficit dipped 60% in H1FY23 on lower imports, and 9) GoP expressed readiness to meet all IMF demands to revive loan program.

The reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed a WoW increase for the first time in about 8 weeks, up by US$258 million to US$4.6 billion, corresponding to less than 1 month of import cover.

Sector-wise, the top performing sectors were: Modarabas, Leasing companies, and Insurance, while the least favorite sectors were: Cement, Leather & Tanneries and Cable & Electrical Goods.

Stock-wise, top performers were: EFUG, DCR, FFC, COLG, and ABL, while laggards included: KTML, CHCC, KOHC, CEPB, and TGL.

Foreign Investors were the major buyers with net buy of US$4.88 million, followed by Banks/DFIs with net buy of US$4.07 million.

Mutual funds were major sellers, with a net sell of US$9.64 million followed by Insurance companies with a net sell of US$4.96 million.

The market trajectory next week would be determined by the Monetary Policy Committee decision, scheduled to meet 23 January 23, 2023. Market is largely expecting a 100 bps increase in policy rates. It seems the market has already priced in the 100bps hike, and any deviation in the decision could impact the market.

In addition to this, the external position of the country would remain in focus, with the delay in resumption of the IMF program detrimental to the sentiment in the market.

The IMF’s stamp of approval would unlock flows from bi-lateral and multilateral sources—the need of the hour considering the alarming reserves position of the country.

The GoP would have to take difficult decisions to appease the IMF, which includes additional revenue collection of PKR200 billion and gas and electricity tariff hikes, along with a market-determined exchange rate.

We continue to advocate companies that have dollar-denominated revenue streams as the weakness in the currency is expected to persist.

Saudi crude exports slip to five month low in November 2022

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports fell to a five-month low in November 2022, while production also slipped, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Thursday.

The kingdom's crude exports fell about 6.3% to 7.28 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2022 from 7.77 million bpd in October 2022, marking the first reduction in exports in the last six months.

The world's largest oil exporter's crude production fell to 10.47 million bpd in November 2022 from 10.96 million bpd in the previous month.

Saudi's domestic crude refinery throughput decreased by 19,000 bpd to 2.660 million bpd in November 2022, while direct crude burn rose 49,000 bpd to 429,000 bpd.

OPEC oil output rose in December 2022, a Reuters survey found on Wednesday, despite an agreement by the wider OPEC Plus consent to cut production targets to support the market.

OPEC Plus, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, last month had agreed to stick to a 2 million bpd oil output cut.

Chinese oil demand rose by nearly one million bpd from the previous month to 15.41 million bpd in November 2022, its highest since February 2022, the data showed.

OPEC said on Tuesday Chinese oil demand would rebound this year due to relaxation of the country's COVID-19 curbs and drive global growth, and it sounded an optimistic note on the prospects for the world economy in 2023.

Saudi Arabian state oil producer Aramco is discussing investments in petrochemicals with Chinese companies, Asharq reported citing an interview by the company's chief executive with Bloomberg.

Lately, oil prices have been caught in a tug-of-war between fears of a possible US recession and optimism over China's demand outlook.

 

 

US decides against sending tanks to Ukraine

A push to provide battle tanks to Ukraine is stalled after US officials this week expressed reluctance over difficulties in maintenance and training for the advanced tracked vehicle.

The US decision effectively prevents Ukraine getting tanks from other NATO allies as well, as Germany this week made clear it would only allow other countries to send German-made tanks if the US commits its own M1 Abrams tank first.

Ukraine has repeatedly asked for Western tanks to help in its fight with Russia, a topic that was front and center this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and will again be in the spotlight at a gathering of top defense ministers for a Ukraine Contact Group meeting on Friday. 

German officials have been mulling allowing Ukraine to have its Leopard 2 tanks, with speculation that the US and Germany may announce a deal on Friday to finally grant Kyiv’s wish for heavy tanks. 

But the United States believes it just doesn’t make sense for Washington to send over the Army’s main battle tank now, Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary, told reporters Thursday. 

“It’s more of a sustainment issue,” Singh said. “This is a tank that requires jet fuel. . . .. The maintenance and the high cost that it would take to maintain an Abrams, it just doesn’t make sense to provide that to the Ukrainians at this moment.” 

Months of pressure on the United States and Germany to hand over battle tanks appeared to make headway this week with the new appointment of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius as well as discussions on tanks at Davos and high-level NATO meetings in Brussels.  

Also viewed as positive momentum was the US, French and German commitment earlier this month to provide Bradleys, AMX-10 RCs and Marder fighting vehicles, respectively, the first time the countries have done so. 

But former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst — who on Monday said it appeared that a deal to allow tank exports to Ukraine had been worked out between Washington and Berlin — told The Hill Wednesday that it appears a wrench had been thrown into the process. 

“There’s a game that’s been going on involving Berlin and the White House for months, which is the Germans would say ‘we’re not going to send any Leopards until the Americans sends Abrams.’ … The Americans say, ‘yes, we have no objection to Germany sending Leopards, we’re not gonna send Abrams.’ And then both countries get to avoid sending something they consider provocative to the Kremlin,” said Herbst, now a senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. 

While the West hasn’t completely closed the door on committing tanks to Ukraine — with the United Kingdom last week announcing that it will send the nation 14 Challenger 2s — reluctance reigns on shipping other heavy tanks to Kyiv.  

Some experts agree the Abrams isn’t a prudent addition to Ukraine’s war effort at the moment due to the sheer amount of effort it would take to run it, said Jeffrey Pryce, a former Defense Department special counsel now at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. 

“The Abrams is a majestic tank, but it comes with corresponding logistical and maintenance burdens,” Pryce told The Hill. “What we’ve focused on is providing Ukrainians with capabilities that they can effectively use in the short term, and the Abrams doesn’t seem to be in that sweet spot.” 

He also disagreed with assertions that the U.S. was shying away from the system due to fears of escalating the conflict, pointing to Washington’s commitment to send such high-tech systems as the Patriot missile defense system and Bradley Fighting Vehicles. 

“I think it’s just a judgment as to what’s most helpful, what they can most efficiently absorb and effectively use in combat in the middle of a war,” he said. 

Late Thursday the United States announced a major US$2.5 billion weapons package for Kyiv, to include 90 Stryker armored combat vehicles but no Abrams tanks. The military aid was announced ahead of a gathering of the Ukraine Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, to be attended by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley and about 50 other top defense officials from NATO as they look to coordinate future lethal assistance to Kyiv.  

Leaders of Ukraine’s military, which until now have used Soviet-era tanks on the battlefield, insist more modern tanks are needed, and soon, as Russia appears to gear up for a renewed spring offensive. 

“There is no rational reason why Ukraine has not yet been supplied with Western tanks,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this month.  

On Thursday, Zelensky reupped the request, saying that the need for Western tanks is still a “pressing and very sensitive” issue for Ukraine. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday that he expected further announcements on military deliveries to Ukraine to come out of Ramstein but would not comment on whether Washington is pushing Berlin to give the green light for Leopard tanks for Kyiv. 

“On the question of, of tanks, and for that matter, any weapons system, these are sovereign decisions for each country to make,” Blinken said. 

On Thursday, Singh echoed that message, noting that Leopards are easier to fuel and maintain. 

“Ultimately this is Germany’s decision. It’s their sovereign decision on what security assistance they will provide. So we won’t be able to speak to them, but I think that we are certainly doing what we can to support Ukraine in what they need,” she said. 

“We’re continuing to work with other partners and allies around the world to see what else can be provided to Ukraine, and that’s the whole point of tomorrow’s meeting,” Singh added. 

While the Biden administration has offered little detail of its conversations with Germany, the German side has been clear about wanting the US to make the first move on heavy tanks, a message delivered by German chancellor Olaf Scholz in a call with President Biden and in-person to an American congressional delegation in Davos. 

Finland, Poland and the Baltic states all possess Leopard 2s in their own stocks and have publicly endorsed shipping the vehicle to Ukraine, but need Germany’s permission to do so due to German components within the tanks.  

The impasse has angered a number of American lawmakers, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who on Wednesday tweeted for the two sides to “stop bickering.”

“This impasse needs to come to an end. The tanks need to go to Ukraine from BOTH countries as soon as possible.  The future of Europe and a rules-based world is at stake,” Graham wrote. 

And Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Sen. James Risch (R-Idaho) on Thursday called for Germany to immediately allow Poland and Finland to contribute Leopards.  

The latest public statements from Berlin and Washington suggest Ukraine may have to keep waiting; however. All involved will be keeping a close eye on the meetings at Ramstein on Friday. 

 

“There’s a decision that’s going to have to be made and we’ll see if there’s an agreement at Ramstein,” Pryce said.