Ukraine: Fighter jets to follow tanks

Ukraine’s breakthrough in securing heavy tanks from the United States and Germany has paved way for talks about sending the US F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to defend its airspace.

The government of Ukraine quickly renewed its calls for world-class fighter jets after it secured the victory on tanks, arguing it needed the help to defend itself against Russia.

Shortly after the US announcement on tanks, Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense secretary, told The Hill that Kyiv would do everything possible to secure the fighter jets.

And Dymytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs, tweeted Wednesday morning that Ukraine has new tasks ahead, naming western fighter jets as one of them.

ArmyINFORM, an information agency for Ukraine’s ministry of defense, also published an article Wednesday suggesting that Ukrainian pilots are already training in the US, but there has been no public announcement on such a program.

Asked to comment on the possibility of fighter jets going to Ukraine, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby  on Wednesday said he had no news to share.

“Can’t blame the Ukrainians for wanting more and more systems,” Kirby said. “It’s not the first time they’ve talked about fighter jets, but I don’t have any announcements to make on that front.”

Kyiv operates a fleet of aging Soviet aircraft and has requested western, modern fighter jets since the onset of the war — but so far it has remained out of the nation’s grasp.

Supplying jets would be another escalation in terms of US support for Ukraine, and the Biden administration has been careful in offering support that might intensify the conflict with Russia — particularly with the fear of nuclear weapons hovering over the war.

Yet the supplying of jets seems much less unlikely after the Biden administration made a major u-turn by agreeing to send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. The administration did so to convince Germany to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Germany also gave its blessing for other allies to send the German-made Leopards to Kyiv.

Germany has expressed opposition to sending fighter jets to Ukraine.

“There will be no fighter jet deliveries to Ukraine. This was made clear very early, including from the US President,” Germany Chancelor Olaf Scholz said in remarks to his country’s parliament after the tanks decision. “This position has not changed at all and will not change.”

Despite such remarks, a number of experts think the supplying of jets to Ukraine by the U.S. is now likely to happen.

Ukraine has slowly secured more and more advanced weaponry from the US and European allies, and they say American-made F-16s will probably follow that same course.

Tomasz Blusiewicz, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, said most of the concerns over sending the jets are probably over logistical questions, such as training and getting the aircraft and related systems delivered.

“I think it’s now really more down to the nitty-gritty, logistical servicing and delivery and training,” he said.

The fighter jets would make a huge difference in the skies over Ukraine in combat against Russian fighter jets, which are much more outdated than western aircraft.

Both Ukraine and Russia are currently using MiG-29 fighter jets and various different models of the Sukhois aircraft, which are extremely inferior to advanced western technology.

Those advocating for sending western aircraft to Ukraine also say the US public would accept it as a means to defend Ukrainian skies and protect civilians from Russia’s relentless bombardments.

Blusiewicz explained the fighter jets, which he described as “Guardians,” would be “even more of a game-changer” for Ukraine than the battle tanks.

“In terms of air superiority, western tech … is light years away,” he said. “And for Ukrainian civilians, it now becomes more realistic to make sure these drones and rockets don’t fall on them.”

The US-made F-15s and F-16s are the cream of the crop, but other advanced fighters such as the Eurofighter Typhoon, Swedish Gripens and French-made Dassault Rafale would all be decisive on the battlefield.

US lawmakers, most of whom have prodded the Biden administration to support more and more advanced weaponry for Kyiv, also appear to show early signs of supporting this next push for the fighter jets.

A statement released by Democratic, Richard Blumenthal, Sheldon Whitehouse, as well as Republican Lindsey Graham on Wednesday applauded the Biden administration for sending tanks to Ukraine but quickly pivoted to a push for fighter jets and long-range artillery systems.

“The combination of tanks, fighter aircraft, and ATACMS will help Ukraine confront the upcoming Russian offensive and go on offense in both the east and the south in an attempt to further erode Russia’s capability to continue fighting in Ukraine,” the statement read. “Let’s give the Ukrainians everything they need to win — now.”

Most of the concerns around supplying advanced weaponry before — from the HIMARS rocket launchers to the western battle tanks — revolved around escalating tensions with Russia. 

But an increasing number of voices say that after the tanks, the F-16s are not likely to be seen as more of an escalation. 

Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institute, told The Hill that Russia “defines everything as an escalation.” 

“In reality I think there are some guardrails that have been established between the United States and Russia and there is a tacit understanding not to cross the lines,” she said.

At the same time, Adyintasbas said the US still probably won’t supply the F-16s anytime soon.

“We know the reason why,” she added, “Escalation management.”

 

US decides against sending tanks to Ukraine

A push to provide battle tanks to Ukraine is stalled after US officials this week expressed reluctance over difficulties in maintenance and training for the advanced tracked vehicle.

The US decision effectively prevents Ukraine getting tanks from other NATO allies as well, as Germany this week made clear it would only allow other countries to send German-made tanks if the US commits its own M1 Abrams tank first.

Ukraine has repeatedly asked for Western tanks to help in its fight with Russia, a topic that was front and center this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and will again be in the spotlight at a gathering of top defense ministers for a Ukraine Contact Group meeting on Friday. 

German officials have been mulling allowing Ukraine to have its Leopard 2 tanks, with speculation that the US and Germany may announce a deal on Friday to finally grant Kyiv’s wish for heavy tanks. 

But the United States believes it just doesn’t make sense for Washington to send over the Army’s main battle tank now, Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary, told reporters Thursday. 

“It’s more of a sustainment issue,” Singh said. “This is a tank that requires jet fuel. . . .. The maintenance and the high cost that it would take to maintain an Abrams, it just doesn’t make sense to provide that to the Ukrainians at this moment.” 

Months of pressure on the United States and Germany to hand over battle tanks appeared to make headway this week with the new appointment of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius as well as discussions on tanks at Davos and high-level NATO meetings in Brussels.  

Also viewed as positive momentum was the US, French and German commitment earlier this month to provide Bradleys, AMX-10 RCs and Marder fighting vehicles, respectively, the first time the countries have done so. 

But former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst — who on Monday said it appeared that a deal to allow tank exports to Ukraine had been worked out between Washington and Berlin — told The Hill Wednesday that it appears a wrench had been thrown into the process. 

“There’s a game that’s been going on involving Berlin and the White House for months, which is the Germans would say ‘we’re not going to send any Leopards until the Americans sends Abrams.’ … The Americans say, ‘yes, we have no objection to Germany sending Leopards, we’re not gonna send Abrams.’ And then both countries get to avoid sending something they consider provocative to the Kremlin,” said Herbst, now a senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. 

While the West hasn’t completely closed the door on committing tanks to Ukraine — with the United Kingdom last week announcing that it will send the nation 14 Challenger 2s — reluctance reigns on shipping other heavy tanks to Kyiv.  

Some experts agree the Abrams isn’t a prudent addition to Ukraine’s war effort at the moment due to the sheer amount of effort it would take to run it, said Jeffrey Pryce, a former Defense Department special counsel now at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. 

“The Abrams is a majestic tank, but it comes with corresponding logistical and maintenance burdens,” Pryce told The Hill. “What we’ve focused on is providing Ukrainians with capabilities that they can effectively use in the short term, and the Abrams doesn’t seem to be in that sweet spot.” 

He also disagreed with assertions that the U.S. was shying away from the system due to fears of escalating the conflict, pointing to Washington’s commitment to send such high-tech systems as the Patriot missile defense system and Bradley Fighting Vehicles. 

“I think it’s just a judgment as to what’s most helpful, what they can most efficiently absorb and effectively use in combat in the middle of a war,” he said. 

Late Thursday the United States announced a major US$2.5 billion weapons package for Kyiv, to include 90 Stryker armored combat vehicles but no Abrams tanks. The military aid was announced ahead of a gathering of the Ukraine Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, to be attended by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley and about 50 other top defense officials from NATO as they look to coordinate future lethal assistance to Kyiv.  

Leaders of Ukraine’s military, which until now have used Soviet-era tanks on the battlefield, insist more modern tanks are needed, and soon, as Russia appears to gear up for a renewed spring offensive. 

“There is no rational reason why Ukraine has not yet been supplied with Western tanks,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this month.  

On Thursday, Zelensky reupped the request, saying that the need for Western tanks is still a “pressing and very sensitive” issue for Ukraine. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday that he expected further announcements on military deliveries to Ukraine to come out of Ramstein but would not comment on whether Washington is pushing Berlin to give the green light for Leopard tanks for Kyiv. 

“On the question of, of tanks, and for that matter, any weapons system, these are sovereign decisions for each country to make,” Blinken said. 

On Thursday, Singh echoed that message, noting that Leopards are easier to fuel and maintain. 

“Ultimately this is Germany’s decision. It’s their sovereign decision on what security assistance they will provide. So we won’t be able to speak to them, but I think that we are certainly doing what we can to support Ukraine in what they need,” she said. 

“We’re continuing to work with other partners and allies around the world to see what else can be provided to Ukraine, and that’s the whole point of tomorrow’s meeting,” Singh added. 

While the Biden administration has offered little detail of its conversations with Germany, the German side has been clear about wanting the US to make the first move on heavy tanks, a message delivered by German chancellor Olaf Scholz in a call with President Biden and in-person to an American congressional delegation in Davos. 

Finland, Poland and the Baltic states all possess Leopard 2s in their own stocks and have publicly endorsed shipping the vehicle to Ukraine, but need Germany’s permission to do so due to German components within the tanks.  

The impasse has angered a number of American lawmakers, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who on Wednesday tweeted for the two sides to “stop bickering.”

“This impasse needs to come to an end. The tanks need to go to Ukraine from BOTH countries as soon as possible.  The future of Europe and a rules-based world is at stake,” Graham wrote. 

And Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Sen. James Risch (R-Idaho) on Thursday called for Germany to immediately allow Poland and Finland to contribute Leopards.  

The latest public statements from Berlin and Washington suggest Ukraine may have to keep waiting; however. All involved will be keeping a close eye on the meetings at Ramstein on Friday. 

 

“There’s a decision that’s going to have to be made and we’ll see if there’s an agreement at Ramstein,” Pryce said.