Ukrainians prepare for war with Russia as military aid arrives

Ukraine is getting ready for war after the United States sent a plane carrying military equipment and munitions to the capital, Kyiv. The third shipment of a US$200 million security package is intended to help Ukraine amid the looming threat of a Russian military incursion.

“Our partners are increasing the amount of military assistance, and today we are meeting the third aircraft from the United States government as part of this assistance,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told reporters before the plane landed.

Ukraine Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said the country was more organized today than in 2014, the last time Russia invaded it.

“We didn’t have the army then as it is now,” she said. “We didn’t know what Russian aggression looked like. We were thinking that a full-fledged war would take place in our territory, so we were preparing for the massive protection of our territorial integrity without the resources for it.”

After eight years of Ukraine fighting “Russian aggression,” the country had “military resilience as well as a resilience to hybrid threats,” Stefanishyna said.

Ukraine would be ready for all scenarios, she said, adding that the two main scenarios were a military invasion or a continued escalation without an invasion, which would be damaging to the Ukrainian economy, she said.

Ukraine would need “a package of economic assistance” to be part of the talks that took place between US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders on Tuesday, Stefanishyna said.

In addition to the US plane, the UK last week supplied 2,000 short-range, anti-tank missiles and sent British specialists to provide training. It has also provided Saxon armored personnel carriers. Estonia is sending Javelin anti-armor missiles, and Latvia and Lithuania are providing Stinger missiles.

Turkey has sold Ukraine several batches of Bayraktar TB2 drones that it deployed against Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbass region, infuriating Moscow. The Czech Republic last week said it planned to donate a shipment of 152-mm. artillery ammunition.

The improvements to Ukraine’s defenses have given regular citizens a sense of security and confidence.

“When I heard news of the US withdrawing its diplomats from Ukraine, I was a little nervous,” said Roma, who expressed slight nervousness only because his father serves in the Ukrainian Army. “But I believe it will be fine.”

“I think the conflict is a provocation for Ukraine and a political show to make the Ukrainians panic,” he said. “That’s why I don’t read the news. When you just live your life, you’re normal. But when you see (in the news) that there will be a war tomorrow, and you need to stock up, it’s all you think about.”

Lena said she was under stress because her boyfriend and some of her friends live in Russia, meaning they have not been able to see each other recently.

“If we want to see each other, we need to fly to Turkey or Cyprus,” she said.

Lena said she was not concerned about a war breaking out.

“I feel good, and my friends feel good,” she said. “I have a friend who works in a military department, and he tells me that everything is okay.”

Dimitri said he was not sure if there would be a war because it would be expensive for both Ukraine and Russia. He still thinks there is a possibility because “there is one crazy man who is a dictator in Russia, and who knows this crazy man? Maybe he only wants war.”

Dimitri said he was certain that if there is a war, he will be fighting for his country.

“I think like Israelis,” he said. “If there is war, I’ll fight, and if there is no war, then I will move on.”

The Ukrainian government said the Israeli perspective could be of use because of the way it deals with conflicts.

“We have made sure we have good cooperation with the Israeli government in terms of their experience and best practices when it comes to the hybrid attacks and military development of the military service,” Stefanishyna said. “The dynamics are very positive.”

Dimitri’s patriotism reflects a level seen now among Ukrainians that was not as prevalent during the 2014 Russo-Ukrainian war.

“We are definitely more patriotic now,” Sergei said.

“I believe in Ukrainians,” Roma said. “I believe in our army and that our politicians can stabilize the situation.”

Mia said she felt strongly about her Ukrainian nationality and would not be okay with Ukraine becoming a part of Russia. She said she argues every week with her grandfather, who lives in Russia.

“He always tells me that Russia would be best for the Ukrainian people,” she added.

The best assistance Ukraine’s allies could give would be “political pressure on Russia and military support,” Stefanishyna said.

 

ReconAfrica: An emerging energy giant from Canada

ReconAfrica is a Canadian oil and gas company engaged in the opening of the newly discovered deep Kavango Sedimentary Basin, in the Kalahari Desert of northeastern Namibia and northwestern Botswana. The Company holds petroleum licenses comprising approximately 8.5 million contiguous acres.

Operations

Processing of the first 450 kms of 2D seismic data acquired in the Kavango Basin was recently completed with excellent results. The initial interpretation is near complete and has delineated a diverse group of high-quality prospects for the upcoming three to six well drilling program.

Relevant to the current list of seismically defined prospects, a second 2D seismic acquisition program comprising approximately 500 kms has been designed. As a result, a corresponding update to the seismic Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has been submitted to the Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism for approval. Subject to the appropriate approvals, the second 2D seismic program is scheduled to commence by the end of February 2022. A more detailed drilling schedule for H1 2022 will be provided as soon as all permits are approved by the Namibian government.

Environment, Social and Governance

As part of the previously announced comprehensive ESG program dedicated to the Kavango East and Kavango West regions, the Company is supporting the Namibian Ministry of Health and Social Service's COVID-19 response by donating N$15 million (CDN$1.27 million) for a proactive roll-out vaccination campaign for the hard-to-reach, remote villages, and settlements in Kavango East and Kavango West. In the first month, the campaign has recorded over 8,000 initial vaccinations, over 1,200 second doses and 100 boosters. 52 of the 81 planned villages have been covered to date. ReconAfrica is also assisting with oxygen provision and mortuary services support.

ReconAfrica conducts ongoing engagement programs, led by its Community Liaison Officers and Community Engagement teams, to ensure a steady flow of communication, in local languages, with impacted and interested stakeholders, Traditional Authorities, Conservancies, Communities and other interest groups. Specifically, the Company has conducted more than 300 community engagement sessions related to the drilling and 2D seismic programs to share information and track stakeholder feedback. 

Board of Directors

The Company is pleased to announce the appointment of Craig Steinke as a director and executive Chairman of the Board. Steinke, the founder of ReconAfrica, has played a pivotal role since inception in the development of ReconAfrica through his private energy consulting practice. Steinke has over 25 years of experience in identifying, successfully developing and financing oil and natural gas exploration and production projects in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia. Additionally, through his privately held company, Steinke plays an active role leading a diversified team, in generating new sources and technologies for sustainable energy.

Leaving the board of directors is Jay Park, one of the Company's early stage and significant shareholders, has served the Company and its predecessor Reconnaissance Oil as its Chief Executive Officer from May 2018 to August 2020, and then as the Company's executive Chairman. Park will continue to take the leading role in advising ReconAfrica on all oil and gas legal matters through Park Energy Law where he is Managing Partner.

Joining the Board of the Company is Dr. Joseph R. Davis. Dr. Davis has 40 years of experience as an oil and gas geologist focused on reserve estimation and understanding exploration risk. Dating back to 2013, Dr. Davis led the technical team in the original discovery of the Kavango basin. In 2015 Dr. Davis was a founding partner of a private US based natural gas company, focused on sustainable natural gas production, achieving natural gas production of over 800mmcf/day. Dr. Davis has a PhD in Geology from the University of Texas and serves as Secretary of the Trustee Associates of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Foundation. He also serves on the AAPG's Sustainable Development Committee, which provides industry leadership in technology and training for meeting United Nations sustainable development goals, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting ground and surface water supplies, and defining the reservoirs necessary for carbon storage and sequestration. 

Retiring from the board of directors but retaining an active role with the company as Geoscience advisor is Dr. James Granath, who has served as a director of the Company from August 2019. Dr. Granath's new role focuses on the structural geology aspects of exploring and developing the Kavango Basin. The Company thanks Dr. Granath for his major contribution to the Board of ReconAfrica and is pleased that he will be providing continued technical deliverables for the exploration and development of the Kavango basin.

IMF Forecasts Disrupted Global Recovery

According to an IMF communique the continuing global recovery faces multiple challenges as the pandemic enters its third year. The rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led to renewed mobility restrictions in many countries and increased labor shortages. 

Supply disruptions still weigh on activity and are contributing to higher inflation, adding to pressures from strong demand and elevated food and energy prices. Moreover, record debt and rising inflation constrain the ability of many countries to address renewed disruptions.

Some challenges could be shorter lived than others. The new variant appears to be associated with less severe illness than the Delta variant, and the record surge in infections is expected to decline relatively quickly. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook therefore anticipates that while Omicron will weigh on activity in the first quarter of 2022, this effect will fade starting in the second quarter.

Other challenges, and policy pivots, are expected to have a greater impact on the outlook. IMF projects global growth this year at 4.4 percent, 0.5 percentage point lower than previously forecast, mainly because of downgrades for the United States and China. In the case of the United States, this reflects lower prospects of legislating the Build Back Better fiscal package, an earlier withdrawal of extraordinary monetary accommodation, and continued supply disruptions. China’s downgrade reflects continued retrenchment of the real estate sector and a weaker-than-expected recovery in private consumption. Supply disruptions have led to mark downs for other countries too, such as Germany. IMF expects global growth to slow to 3.8 percent in 2023. This is 0.2 percentage point higher than stated in the October 2021 WEO and largely reflects a pickup after current drags on growth dissipate.

IMF has revised up our 2022 inflation forecasts for both advanced and emerging market and developing economies, with elevated price pressures expected to persist for longer. Supply-demand imbalances are assumed to decline over 2022 based on industry expectations of improved supply, as demand gradually rebalances from goods to services, and extraordinary policy support is withdrawn. Moreover, energy and food prices are expected to grow at more moderate rates in 2022 according to futures markets. Assuming inflation expectations remain anchored, inflation is therefore expected to subside in 2023.

Even as recoveries continue, the troubling divergence in prospects across countries persists. While advanced economies are projected to return to pre-pandemic trend this year, several emerging markets and developing economies are projected to have sizeable output losses into the medium-term. The number of people living in extreme poverty is estimated to have been around 70 million higher than pre-pandemic trends in 2021, setting back the progress in poverty reduction by several years.

The forecast is subject to high uncertainty and risks overall are to the downside. The emergence of deadlier variants could prolong the crisis. China’s zero-COVID strategy could exacerbate global supply disruptions, and if financial stress in the country’s real estate sector spreads to the broader economy the ramifications would be felt widely. Higher inflation surprises in the United States could elicit aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and sharply tighten global financial conditions. Rising geopolitical tensions and social unrest also pose risks to the outlook.

To address many of the difficulties facing the world economy, it is vital to break the hold of the pandemic. This will require a global effort to ensure widespread vaccination, testing, and access to therapeutics, including the newly developed anti-viral medications. As of now, only 4 percent of the populations of low-income countries are fully vaccinated versus 70 percent in high-income countries. In addition to ensuring predictable supply of vaccines for low-income developing countries, assistance should be provided to boost absorptive capacity and improve health infrastructure. It is urgent to close the US$23.4 billion financing gap for the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator and to incentivize technological transfers to help speed up diversification of global production of critical medical tools, especially in Africa.

At the national level, policies should remain tailored to country specific circumstances including the extent of recovery, of underlying inflationary pressures, and available policy space. Both fiscal and monetary policies will need to work in tandem to achieve economic goals. Given the high level of uncertainty, policies must also remain agile and adapt to incoming economic data.

With policy space diminished in many economies, and strong recoveries underway in others, fiscal deficits in most countries are projected to shrink this year. The fiscal priority should continue to be the health sector, and transfers, where needed, should be effectively targeted to the worst affected. All initiatives will need to be embedded in medium-term fiscal frameworks that lay out a credible path for ensuring public debt remains sustainable.

Monetary policy is at a critical juncture in most countries. Where inflation is broad based alongside a strong recovery, like in the United States, or high inflation runs the risk of becoming entrenched, as in some emerging market and developing economies and advanced economies, extraordinary monetary policy support should be withdrawn. Several central banks have already begun raising interest rates to get ahead of price pressures. It is the key to communicate well the policy transition towards a tightening stance to ensure orderly market reaction. Where core inflationary pressures remain subdued, and recoveries incomplete, monetary policy can remain accommodative.

As the monetary policy stance tightens more broadly this year, economies will need to adapt to a global environment of higher interest rates. Emerging market and developing economies with large foreign currency borrowing and external financing needs should prepare for possible turbulence in financial markets by extending debt maturities as feasible and containing currency mismatches. Exchange rate flexibility can help with needed macroeconomic adjustment. In some cases, foreign exchange intervention and temporary capital flow management measures may be needed to provide monetary policy with the space to focus on domestic conditions.

With interest rates rising, low-income countries, of which 60 percent are already in or at high risk of debt distress, will find it increasingly difficult to service their debts. The G20 Common Framework needs to be revamped to deliver more quickly on debt restructuring, and G20 creditors and private creditors should suspend debt service while the restructurings are being negotiated.

At the start of the third year of the pandemic, the global death toll has risen to 5.5 million deaths and the accompanying economic losses are expected to be close to US$13.8 trillion through 2024 relative to pre-pandemic forecasts. These numbers would have been much worse had it not been for the extraordinary work of scientists, of the medical community, and the swift and aggressive policy responses across the world.

However, much work remains to ensure the losses are contained and to reduce wide disparities in recovery prospects across countries. Policy initiatives are needed to reverse the large learning losses suffered by children, especially in developing countries. On average, students in middle-income and low-income countries had 93 more days of nation-wide school closures than those in high income countries. On climate, a bigger push is needed to get to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with carbon pricing mechanisms, green infrastructure investment, research subsidies, and financing initiatives so that all countries can invest in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

The last two years reaffirm that this crisis and the ongoing recovery is like no other. Policymakers must vigilantly monitor a broad swath of incoming economic data, prepare for contingencies, and be ready to communicate and execute policy changes at short notice. In parallel, bold, and effective international cooperation should ensure that this is the year the world escapes the grip of the pandemic.

 

Ukraine accuses Germany of encouraging Putin

Foreign Minister of Ukraine has accused Germany of undermining unity among the country's allies and of encouraging Vladimir Putin by refusing to deliver arms to Kyiv.

Earlier, German Defence Minister said Berlin would set up a field hospital in Ukraine amid the security crisis between the West and Russia. But Christine Lambrecht said that sending military aid now would not help defuse the crisis.

"Today, the unity of the West with Russia is more important than ever. To achieve it and deter the Russian Federation, we are all working together," Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba responded via Twitter.

"German partners must stop such words and actions to undermine unity and encourage Vladimir Putin to a new attack on Ukraine."

The Ukrainian foreign minister added that Kyiv was grateful to Germany for its support and diplomatic efforts in recent years. "But Germany's current statements are disappointing and run counter to this support and effort," he added.

The United States, the United Kingdom and the Baltic states have promised to send weapons to Ukraine to respond to the military threat from Russia, which has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops along the border.

Washington announced the first delivery of "lethal aid" to Kyiv late on Friday.

Moscow denies planning to invade Ukraine, but is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO, including a permanent ban on Ukraine joining the Western military alliance.

German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said in an interview with the Welt am Sonntag newspaper that the field hospital will be delivered in February, with training for staff provided, at a cost to Germany of €5.3 million.

"We have already provided respirators," the minister said, adding that Germany was already treating in German hospitals Ukrainian soldiers seriously wounded in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

"So we are standing alongside Kyiv. Now we should do what is within our power to defuse the crisis," Lambrecht said. However, "the delivery of weapons would not currently contribute" to achieving such a goal, she added.

This position formed a "consensus within the federal government" led by Olaf Scholz, the Defence Minister said.

Germany's refusal to send weapons to Ukraine contrasts with the positions of the UK, Poland and the Baltic states. The Defence Ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania issued a statement saying they received US approval to send Stinger air defense missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles to strengthen Kyiv's defences.

Lambrecht described as a "red line" for NATO the right of each sovereign state to decide whether to join the Western military alliance, saying Russia had no veto. But the West was ready for dialogue with Moscow and to take Russian interests into account, she said.

 

 

India launches nuclear powered submarine

According to South Asia Journal India has launched its third SSBN (Nuclear Missile Submarine) at Ship Building Centre (SBC) in Visakhapatnam. Neither the Indian Navy nor the Ministry of Defense confirmed the news but according to the sources in the SBC and Indian navy, the launch of the submarine was confirmed. 

The newly launched SSBN called S4 could be critical for India’s credible nuclear deterrence like the previous two SSBNs and could have serious implications for South Asian security.

The submarine has been built jointly by the DAE (Department of Atomic Energy), DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization), Russian technicians and scientists, and Indian Navy personnel. The submarine has been relocated near the fitting-out wharf that was previously occupied by the INS Arighat which was launched in 2014 but still awaits its commissioning delayed due to pandemic.

As per the report, the satellite imagery shows that at 7,000 tons, the SSBN is slightly larger, with 125.4m load waterline measurement as compared to the 6,000 ton and 111.6m load waterline measurement of INS Arighat which is considered the lead boat in its class. Hence the S4 could be categorized as a successive boat of Arihant class variants.

The submarine shows the expansion of the vertical launch system of the submarine, it could support nearly eight launch tubes (missiles) which is double as compared to the previous SSBN. The submarine would be able to carry eight K-4 SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles) or 24 K-15 SLBMs with 3,500 km and 750 km strike range respectively.  However, the K-4 missile is still under development and has not been launched yet.

India in its quest to complete its nuclear triad plans to build six SSNs (Nuclear Powered Submarines). The naval platform is considered to be the most significant leg of the nuclear triad as it assures the second-strike capability of the state. But looking at India’s ambiguous NFU (No First Use Policy) such developments could become a huge threat to the strategic stability of South Asia.

The development of SSBNs by India is a matter of concern for not only Pakistan and the Indian Ocean littoral states but for the international community as well. With the development of nuclear-powered submarines, India has entered the club of a handful of countries that can construct, design, and operate such submarines.

The belligerent and aggressive attitude of India’s leadership raises serious concerns regarding responsible nuclear stewardship in India and threatens the strategic stability of South Asia. Construction of SSBNs and increased frequency of missile tests every year shows the aggressive posturing of India. Moreover, the deployment of nuclear weapons by India also requires the international community to reassess the non-proliferation benefits provided to India by various arms control and non-proliferation cartels.

Pakistan is also continuously strengthening its sea-based capabilities in order to deter India’s triad of land, sea, and air-launched nuclear weapons. There should not be any doubt about Pakistan’s capabilities and resolve to the challenges postured by the latest developments both in conventional and nuclear realms in South Asia.

Pakistan has already built Baber-3 (Sea Launched Cruise Missile) that has MIRV (Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle) capabilities to counter the growing submarine capability of India. It would provide a credible second-strike capability to Pakistan which would augment the existing deterrence considering the provocative nuclear posture and strategies in the neighborhood by developing ship-borne nuclear missiles and nuclear submarines.

Other than that, even though India had successfully tested K-4 missiles, its range still remains sub-optimal which would require the SSBN to operate at the Bay of Bengal’s northeastern fringes. This means that these submarines in order to target China’s economic and political hubs would have to travel around the Bangladeshi and Burmese littoral waters. Hence India’s sea-based deterrence capability would remain incomplete unless it is able to deploy an SSBN fleet with intercontinental-range missiles.

European Union can’t afford to antagonize Russia

The geopolitical standoff over Ukraine increasingly risks triggering economic pain, with the European Union (EU) having a lot more to lose than the United States.

As the threat of Russian military action against Ukraine looms, economists are beginning to tot up the potential economic losses if President Vladimir Putin decides to invade and other governments respond with sanctions. Russia has repeatedly denied such allegations.

Russia ranks the fifth-biggest trade partner of European Union and its top energy supplier, as against this United States barely makes the top 30, according to an analysis by Ben Holland and Anya Andrianova. Russia also draws in money from European household names such as Ikea and Volkswagen.

That leaves EU officials nervous about imposing sanctions on Russia as they worry those as well as an outright war could choke off natural gas supplies in the middle of winter when these are needed the most.

“European energy prices are a major concern,” Tim Ash, Senior Emerging Market Strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television. He said Putin wants the EU “terrified about gas this winter and being cold. He doesn’t want them to do anything if he goes into Ukraine.”

Bloomberg Economics’ model of the euro zone reckons the hit from higher energy prices could be as much as 1% of gross domestic product.

Meantime, JPMorgan Chase economists drew eyeballs on Friday as they detailed what would happen if a skirmish between Ukraine and Russia helped lift oil to US$150/barrel this quarter. They estimated such a shock would be enough to drive global growth down to 0.9% in the first half of this year and worldwide inflation to surge above 7%.

Gas is a particularly sensitive matter now, with Russia holding back supplies for the past few months. Prices have tripled, boosting the cost of electricity across the continent. It’s the main reason Europe is suffering a bigger energy shock than the United States.

“Were sanctions to be placed on Russia’s energy exports or were Russia to use gas exports as a tool for leverage, European natural gas prices would probably soar,” said Capital Economics analyst William Jackson. “We think they would far exceed the peak reached last year.”

 

 

Supply Chain Delays Worsen in United States

While a growing number of Los Angeles-bound cargo ships are now biding time off the coast of Mexico, the supply chain crisis progressed this week as consumers found empty shelves in stores across the United States.

“There’s a big population of ships off the coast of Mexico,” Kip Louttit, Director of the Marine Exchange, told The Epoch Times. “If you look at the Pacific, it kind of makes sense to go down there. The weather is better the further south you go.”

The number of ships waiting to deliver goods in Los Angeles has jumped about 12% since October 2021, when President Joe Biden announced the ports would be opened around-the-clock to ease congestion.

The marine exchange reported 190 ships of all types were waiting in line to dock at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports on January 19, 2022. In mid-October, the number was about 170.

It also takes about two months longer to deliver goods from Asia to the Pacific Coast now than in 2019, before the pandemic, according to Flexport, a San Francisco-based freight-forwarding company.

In early January this year, Flexport found that westbound shipments from Asia took an average of 110 days, a 65-day increase and a new record high.

Meanwhile, consumers continued to express frustration across social media with supply shortages. Photos of empty meat sections at a Tennessee Walmart have been shared, as well as empty shelves in Ohio, Missouri and around the country.

Retail shortages are widespread, Geoff Freeman, President and CEO Consumer Brands Association, a retail advocacy group, told the Associated Press earlier this month.

According to Freeman, typically US grocery stores have 5 to 10 percent of their items out of stock. Now, that rate is around 15 percent.

According to a recent poll, by the Consumer Brands Association and Morning Consult, 70% of respondents said they experienced shortages at grocery stores in December last year.

But Biden told reporters January 19, 2022 that the supply chain crisis did not occur during the holidays last year.

Empty shelves and a shortage of car parts, electronic chips and certain food products are becoming commonplace among businesses of all sizes in California, according to California Retailers Association President and CEO Rachel Michelin.

“It’s not getting as much attention as we were getting before, but there are still challenges,” Michelin told The Epoch Times. “I would say that on the supply chain side, it’s not getting any better.”

Michelin said small businesses continue to be especially vulnerable, not only because of the supply chain crisis, but also increased crime that is being reported nationwide and the ongoing disruption of COVID-19. “It is layer, upon layer, upon layer,” she said.

As a result, customers will likely have to start paying even higher prices for goods in addition to the current 7% inflation rate, she said.

Meanwhile, officials have not yet been able to predict when the shipping backlog will ease.

Flexport reported earlier this month that the increased demand for goods in the US is expected to stay and fixes by the Biden Administration have not panned out.

“Despite attempts in October last year by the Biden administration to unclog US West Coast ports there is still evidence that logistics networks remain congested, and will remain so, potentially for at least another year”, Flexport reported.