Pakistan: Foreign Policy Dilemma

It is often said that Pakistan enjoys geopolitically important position but this factor has become its worst enemy. Pakistan’s location has made it highly vulnerable country, be it global politics or ongoing war on terror. Since there are too many state and non-state operators in the region it is often difficult to distinguish between friend and foe.

It is evident that forces having conflicting interests are busy in establishing their hegemony in the region, often undermining Pakistan’s interest and at times subjugating its sovereignty. In such a delicate but complicated situation maintaining good relationship with immediate neighbors and regional and global super powers becomes extremely difficult. This often poses serious threats for the sovereignty of the country.

Pakistan’s top most concern is maintaining cordial relationship with three of its immediate neighbors namely, Afghanistan, Iran and India. In the regional context Pakistan also has to keep happy three regional powers i.e. Saudi Arabia, China and Russia. On top of all it has to follow instructions of United States, leading war on terror in Afghanistan. At time US mantra becomes unbearable because it is promoting India as regional super power and completely ignoring its ‘frontline partner in war against terror’.

A few days before dissolution of assemblies, PPP led coalition government transferred control of Gwadar port to China and commenced work on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. Some experts say that United States, Saudi Arabia and India are not happy with these decisions. They even go to the extent of saying that the two decisions were the reasons for PPP’s defeat in the general election.

Prime Minister, Mian Nawaz Sharif is too keen to grant India MFN status and consolidating trade and investment relationship with it. In this endeavor transfer of control of Gwadar port to China becomes a big stumbling block. India is not at all happy on this decision, as it considers presence of China in the Indian Ocean the biggest hurdle in achieving status of regional super power. India also considers Gwadar a big threat for Chabahar port, which it is building at distance of 70 kilometers from Gwadar in Iran. In this venture India enjoys complete support of United States as at no point in time India was warned of violating sanctions imposed on Iran.

Historically, Saudi Arabia has been kind enough to extend financial support to Pakistan and even at this juncture it is willing to offer US$15 billion bailout package to the country. While people many of Mian Sahib’s critics term the package a hoax call there are also growing apprehensions even in the minds of those who are termed ‘cool headed’. They say Pakistan will have to accept either Saudi bailout package or Iranian gas but can’t enjoy both.  Therefore, it is apprehended that Mian Shaib under the pressure of United States and Saudi Arabia may shelf Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, which will not be a good omen for Pakistan-Iran relationship.

Keeping this complicated scenario in mind, it was believed that Mian Sahib will appoint a well articulated full time foreign minister. Since the influx of experts from all the above stated countries is likely to increase in due course, it will be imprudent that prime minister negotiate with those dignitaries, who will not be enjoying the status of prime minister.

Experts also fear that Mian Sahib is likely to get overindulged in domestic issues, especially energy crisis and precarious law and order situation which will not allow him to spend around 10 to 12 hours a day on foreign policy issues.

Mian Sahib having decided to oversee this ministry has appointed two stalwarts to advise him on foreign policy, these are former foreign minister Sartaj Aziz and former senior diplomat Tariq Fatemi. However, the two are not on the same wave length and are likely to create more problems rather than ensuring smooth handling of crucial foreign policy issues.

Some experts say that Mian Sahib does not have any competent person to be appointed as foreign minister. PPP had chosen Ms Hina Rabbani as a replacement for Shah Mahmood Qureshi and appointed Ms Shery Rehman Ambassador in United States. Therefore, Mian Sahib needs two replacements, one to fill the slot of foreign minister and other to occupy the most important position in Washington. He may have to continue with the ambassadors stationed in Saudi Arabia, China, India, Russia and Afghanistan for the time being.

Pakistan to elect new Prime Minister

Pakistan’s Parliament is scheduled to elect its new leader of the house or prime minister on 5th June. The three proposed names are that of Mian Nawaz Sharif of PML-N, Makhdoom  Amin Fahim of PPP and Makhdoom Javed Hashmi of PTI.

Election of PML-N’s Ayaz Sadiq and Murtaza Javed Abbasi to the posts of speaker and deputy speaker of the assembly respectively has already set the stage and filing of nominations by PPP and PTI members seem a ritual. In fact this may be an exhibition of strengths held by the three leading parties. MQM’s decision to support PML-N has added additional weight to Mian Sahib, who already enjoys simple majority in the house.

Some of the critics say that filing of nominations papers by PPP and PTI is not a good omen because the country needed a consensus leader of the house who enjoys complete support on issues facing the country, worst being stopping drone attacks and overcoming energy crisis.

Many of the political pundits were little confused when MQM decided to sit on opposition benches but extending support to Mian Sahib clearly shows that the party wishes to sail in two boats simultaneously.

It also confirms the conspiracy theory that MQM just can’t afford to sit on opposition benches.

However, extending support to Mian Sahib can pose some serious problems for MQM in Sindh, where PPP is all set to form the government.

Another conspiracy theory is that extending support to Mian Sahib is part of the grand plan to retain the present governor of Sindh in the office. This deal can save Mian Sahib from a possible embarrassment of governor Sindh not ready to receive the elected prime minister at Karachi airport.

While some political pundits say that supporting Mian Sahib does not bode well for MQM, others say that supporting Mian Sahib is the only way to avoid operation against the party.

One can still recall Mian Sahib had said in the past, “If I come into power I will establish military courts in Sindh”. Even at that time it was taken as a potential threat for MQM because such operations were not aimed at rounding up PPP or ANP activists.

Some of the critics say that Mian Sahib has accepted the NP proposed person as Chief Minister of Balochistan just to avoid confrontation. Following the same strategy Mian Sahib may also concede to some of the demands of MQM Just to maintain peace and tranquility in Sindh, the life line of Pakistan.

The history shows MQM enjoys enough power to bring Karachi to grinding halt at the shortest notice. It is clear that if MQM opt for this confrontation with the PML-N, it will also be joined by PPP and ANP to bring the party enjoying the largest mandate under pressure.

It is not only the residents of Karachi but the entire Pakistan that wants peace to be maintained in the city so that economy of the country can be put on track. Keeping the city normal is also a must for ensuring collection of taxes. Karachi continues to contribute nearly 75 per cent of the total tax. Similarly suspension of activities at two ports of Karachi can cause disruption in the movement of import/export consignments.

Pakistan: Can the rulers develop consensus?

According to the results of recently held elections all the political parties enjoy the status of ruling junta. If members of some of these parties will be sitting on opposition benches in the national assembly, they will form the government at provincial levels.

Interestingly, MQM that has remained part of ruling junta has decided to sit on opposition benches at the federal as well as provincial levels. Under the emerging set up it is expected that the parties will preferably come up with policies through consensus and avoid confrontation.

The real test of their consensus is deciding fate of the drone attacks. All the parties during their election campaign were critical of these attacks and now the time has come to tell the super power ‘enough is enough’. It is expected that prime minister in waiting, Mian Nawaz Sharif may not be able to convince the United States alone but if he enjoys support of all the elected members, he can negotiate a better deal.

In the worst scenario Pakistan has the right to intercept and down any aircraft breaching its airspace. 

However, it is believed that these attacks enjoy the blessing of Government of Pakistan (GoP), which is also extending ground support. It is often alleged that Pakistan provide the necessary details for these attacks because at times undertaking such precise attacks are not possible from ground.

The classification of Taliban into good and bad and Taliban/TTP extending support to JI, JUI-F, PML-N and PTI is not likely to allow the ruling junta to continue support for drone attacks. Many questions bother Pakistanis, what is the reality of Taliban/TTP? Are they friend or foe? If they are friend why are they at war with Pakistan Army?

One of the ways to rationalize good or bad Taliban is, those who cooperate with US-led Nato forces are called good and those who consider them ‘occupier’ have been clasified bad. Though, it has been decided to withdraw Nato forces from Afghanistan, there are fears that there will never be complete withdrawal. United States will retain bases in Afghanistan, party to keep Iran under pressure and partly to get control over the goods going to Central Asian countries via Afghanistan.

In Afghanistan United States is also supporting India in maintaining its hegemony; in fact the US wants the countries located in the region to accept India as a regional power. This is aimed at keeping Pakistan under pressure. In such a scenario Mian Sahib may find granting India MFN status a difficult task. His other associates, religious parties are also not likely to support him in developing too cordial relationships with India.

To overcome energy crisis Mian Sahib is demanding Rs500 billion, which has to be mobilized through imposing new taxes and/or raising rates of existing taxes. It is feared that he may also resort to hike in electricity and gas tariff, which will not be endorsed by his opponents.

Ironically, Mian Sahib has not come up with any policy to contain rampant pilferage of electricity and gas and recovery of outstanding dues. It is necessary to remind him that hike in tariffs just can’t improve cash flow of electric and gas utilities.

Targeted killing has once again resurfaced in Karachi and the worst victim is Shia community. Ironically, some of the religious parties and banned outfits enjoy most cordial relationship with PML-N. The time has come to catch the perpetrators and give them exemplary punishment.

Pakistan: Can Nawaz Sharif Redefine Priorities?

The process of oath taking by the elected members has started. On Wednesday the elected members of Sindh Assembly sworn in and shortly members of other provincial assemblies and National Assembly will also take oath. Mian Nawaz Sharif will create the history by becoming Prime Minister of Pakistan for the third time. All the fellow countrymen wish him the best and wish his government completes its term. The haunting memories of dismissal of his previous two governments are still fresh.

In these pages it has been highlighted repeatedly that it will not be the bed of roses for the rulers, particularly for Mian Sahib. His party will form government at federal because it enjoys simple majority and in Punjab it enjoys two-third majority. However, his worst critics and opponents will form the government in remaining three provinces.

Since all the parties want to put economy of the country on fast development, resolve energy crisis, curb militancy and establish writ of the government establishing good working relationship is a must because they have consensus on the issues and also on the priorities. The management gurus say ‘a problem well diagnosed is half solved’.

Fortunately or unfortunately all the parties have consensus on four basic issues facing the country that are: 1) balance of payment, 2) energy, 3) law and order and 4) internal and external threats. It may be another thing that they may not priorities the way these have been listed here. During the election campaign political parties have talked a lot about these problems and the root causes. Now the time has come to come up with policies through consensus and implement these in letter and spirit.

To begin with the new government will have to finalize details of Saudi bailout package and IMF extended financial facility.  The two options will help in different ways, Saudi package will help in containing further erosion of existing paltry foreign exchange reserves and IMF facility will provide the much needed breathing space to come up with a home grown plan for overcoming balance of payment crisis. Delaying the decision for next 100 days to witness the impact of policies can prove fatal if desired results are not achieved.

People are disappointed with the statement of Mian Sahib that energy crisis is far worse than estimated. They had got some idea when PML-N leadership extended the period from three months to three years and lost hopes with the announcement that the government needs 500 billion rupees or five billion dollars to overcome the issue. Even the experts wonder how such a colossal amount could be mobilized and what will be the required measures to pay off this debt.

Some cynics say the country does not needs money but a solid plan to resolve the crisis. Both electric and gas utilities have to overcome blatant theft and improve recoveries to improve cash flow. At present about 6000MW electricity is produced at hydel plants which don’t require even a drop of oil and remaining 6000MW electricity is supplied by IPPs.

If NTDC clears all the outstanding amounts IPPs will have enough cash to buy fuel. The much talked about debate that ministry of finance is not releasing the required amount is spreading disinformation rather than helping in resolving the crisis. The federal government can pay the amount pertaining to federal and provincial governments, state owned enterprises and make the deductions at source.

Law and order situation can be improved by taking action against the culprits irrespective of their association with political parties or religious groups. Let one point be very clear that economic prosperity can’t be achieved without ensuring security of people and their assets. Operation in a particular area or against a specific ethnic group can’t resolve the issue.

Once the economy is put on track, the government can address internal and external threats, worst being growing militancy and sectarian killing. The time has come to weed out foreign militants, who are also being used by various local groups for settling scores. Across the board operation is required against the perpetrators, irrespective of their association with local political parties and religious groups.

Pakistan: Limited Options for MQM

While Mian Nawaz Sharif, Chief of PML-N is anxious to assume charge of Prime Minister for the third time and create history, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) seems completely in quandary. It has not decided as yet whether to sit on opposition benches in National Assembly or become ‘me too’ by joining hands with PML-N.

The dissolution of Coordination Committee by founder and leader of MQM, Altaf Hussain and delay is announcement of new team is certainly making its vote bank uncomfortable, especially those who don’t wish to indulge in ‘confrontation’. Many in MQM believe that if something has to be done for the vote bank it can come only by maintaining amicable relationship with the ruling junta.

Many political pundits say, “Under the prevailing conditions, MQM is left with one option only that is to follow the decision of PPP, which has already nominated Khursheed Shah as leader of opposition in the National Assembly and also to become part of ruling junta in Sindh province”.

Political analysts also believe that if PTI, PPP, MQM and ANP join hands in National Assembly they can form a real strong opposition that will not allow Mian Sahib to do ‘whatever he wishes’. Certainly two of the biggest issues for Sindh and Karachi are: 1) overcoming energy crisis and 2) maintaining law and order.

PTI is likely to form government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwah and Dr. Arif Alvi elected on NA-250 from Karachi will have to play the role most prudently. Dr Alvi has emerged victorious after defeating MQM and JI candidates and now his responsibility should be to protect the rights of PTI vote bank.

Development of Sindh in general and Karachi in particular is linked with robust economic activities and ensuring peace. MQM is likely to learn a lesson from erosion in its vote bank and play the role of facilitator to peace and prosperity.

Historically, PML-N and MQM have hardly enjoyed enviable relationship. MQM leaders and workers have not forgotten Mian Sahib’s statement, “If we come in power we will establish Military Court to punish the culprits”. MQM rank and file still remembers operation undertaken during two of the past regimes of Mian Sahib.

It may be said that PPP has also undertaken operation against MQM in the past, but the two parties succeeded in maintaining good relationship as President Asif Ali Zardari and Governor Sindh Dr. Ishrat ul Ebad made the best effort to keep the coalition intact despite some difficult times.

With Pakistan facing internal and external threats all the political parties, which will enjoy double role, opposition in National Assembly and ruling junta at province levels must keep one point in mind that strengthening Pakistan should be their top priority. They should also remember that the leader of opposition is nothing less than the leader of the house.

Therefore, the logical choice of MQM should be to sit on opposition benches in National Assembly and join hands with PPP in Sindh. The earlier this decision is announced the better it will be for the MQM and its vote bank.

Pakistan: Who is pulling the strings?

PML-N leader Shahbaz Sharif has warned the caretaker prime minister not to make appointments to certain key posts at the behest of President Asif Zardari. He reminded him to respect the people’s mandate as he was legally, morally and politically obliged to respect this mandate and warned of a stern stance if the caretakers did not change their attitude.

Ahsan Iqbal, the PML-N’s deputy secretary general, wonders what is forcing the interim government to take important decisions while the new set-up is going to change within 10 days.

MQM has announced to boycott the re-poll in NA-250. In a press conference held on Friday evening, MQM’s senior leader Raza Haroon said that efforts were made to snatch the party’s mandate in Karachi. The ECP on Friday rejected the MQM petition which sought re-polling in the entire NA-250 constituency of Karachi.

The ECP declared that re-polling would only be held in 43 polling stations of NA-250 out of total 180 polling stations where allegedly polling was not held or delayed these stations on 11th May.

In a surprising development, the lawyer who had filed a petition in the judges’ detention case has withdrawn his complaint against former president retired Gen Pervez Musharraf. The decision by Advocate Chaudhry Mohammad Aslam Ghumman came a day before the hearing of the case on Saturday by the Islamabad Anti-Terrorism Court at former president Pervez Musharraf’s Chak Shahzad farmhouse which has been declared a sub-jail.

Lately, Wazir Ali Khoja was removed from his post of Chairman and Managing Director National Investment Trust (NIT). Before his dismissal the government had removed three heads of public sector organizations: 1) Arif Hameed, MD, Sui Northern Gas Pipelines (SNGPL); Zuhair Siddiqui, MD Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) and retired Brigadier Khalid Khokhar, MD Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation (PMDC). 

One completely fails to understand that the power has not been transferred to newly elected members, elected members have not taken oath and even the names of new prime minister and finance minister have not been announced officially but posting and transfers are being made.

Many political parties have been talking about pre-poll and during the poll rigging but none have raised voice against such terminations. If such moves are being made at the federal level one just can’t rule out such violations at the provincial levels.

Almost all the political parties, PML-N being on the top, were accusing PPP-lead coalition of posting the favorites, but dismissal of those even before assuming charge creates even worst examples of nepotism by PML-N.

There were complaints that PML-N that ruled Punjab for five years, kept the favorites in key position during the interim set up to influence polling results.

It is often said that appointment of professionals as heads of public sector enterprises was aimed at improving performance of these entities. However, often these heads are appointed to serve the political agenda of appointing authorities.

The key items on agenda are: 1) paving way for appointment of party activists, 2) allocating advertisements to favorite media houses and above all 3) siphoning of funds by granting contracts to favorite entities.

The public sector enterprises that have been ruined include PIA, Pakistan Steel, and electricity generation and distribution companies. Entities that have been used to generate funds to meet shortfall in revenue collection are OGDC, PPL, PSO and Sui twins.

Interestingly nepotism, corruption and violation of good governance continued during the PPP led government despite the fact that Chaudhry Nisar Ali belonging to PML-N occupies the top slot of Chairman Public Accounts Committee.

Therefore, it may not be wrong to say that political parties criticize each other but have common motives. Surplus staff of PIA and Pakistan Steel just can’t be removed because activists of many political parties are there that follow the rule ‘I scratch you back and you scratch my back’.

Critics say political parties play ‘musical chair game’, let their favorites plunder and the next government allows them to go home without any accountability. Some cynics say that loyalties of turncoats are bought so that they could also help the new bosses in siphoning out funds of the public sector enterprises (PSEs).

It is o record that annually PSEs swallow around half a trillion rupees of tax payers’ money. A cynic commenting on metro bus project of PML-N said, ‘it was only to facilitate Ittefaq Steel (own by Sharif family) to sell its products’. 

It is only half truth because the project serves residents of Lahore only, whereas the condition of public transport throughout Punjab remains pathetic.

Pakistan Election: Accepting Results

By this time most of the results of recently held general elections in Pakistan have been announced, though unofficially. Those parties which have lost are framing rigging charges but it is a fact that barring a few constituencies the general consensus is that elections were fair, free and transparent. There was less bloodshed keeping in view the threats and attacks on ANP, MQM and PPP election offices and corner meeting.

The efforts to create an impression that polling has been rigged across the board will mar the credibility of elected representatives. However, one could talk specifically about a few constituencies and polling stations where imprudent acts were performed. It can’t be said that only MQM and PPP indulged in rigging but PML-N also indulged in unfair practice, as alleged by supporters of PTI.

A lot is being talked about NA-250, which could be termed exceptional but has to be condemned most vocally. This reminded Larkana election of 1977 when Mulana Jan Mohammad Abbasi of JI was abducted by some PPP supporters/bureaucrats only to prove that Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was elected unopposed. Even at that time many analysts were of the consensus that Mulana could have not won against Bhutto, but a silly move turned the table.

PML-N has won the largest number of seats in National as well as Punjab Assembly. However, it is being alleged for rigging by PPP and PTI because some of the results are beyond expectations. Some analysts say PPP was hoping against hope because it failed in managing affairs of the country prudently and diligently. PML-N had something to its credit and made sweeping victory in Punjab and also managed to get sympathies in Balochistan, though PPP has offered special package for the province.

It is an undeniable fact that ANP, MQM and PPP witnessed erosion in their vote bank. It is true that these parties came under Taliban/TTP attacks but it is also a fact that whiles these parties ruled, the country suffered from gross mismanagement, corruption and nepotism. A few elites may have benefited but masses suffered the most. Therefore, no one else could be held responsible for the fate except their own deeds. Pakistani politicians must learn lesson from rise and fall of Congress in India. It has often lost election as and when its performance was not at par.

PML-N has managed to won in Punjab only because it delivered. PTI has won modest number of seats and it should sit in opposition rather than making any attempt to form government with any other party. If PML-N forms alliance with JUI-F in Khyber Pakhtunkhwah it would be deviation from its manifesto because this religious party and its leaders have been the biggest beneficiaries during Musharraf as well as Zardari rules.

All those parties which have failed in wining substantial number of seats must also keep in view the fate of ANP in mind. Some of its ministers have been accused of worst corruption, which is an undeniable fact. Its role in Karachi often came under criticism only because it was involved in certain highly undesirable activities. Many Pakhtuns living in Karachi have been openly accusing local leadership of ANP of creating animosity with non-Pakhtuns for achieving their selfish motives.

Parties that have failed in winning over hearts of masses must review their policies and work for the welfare of their supporters. In many countries leader of the opposition is given as high a respect as given to the leader of the house. In last government Chaudhry Nisar Ali of PML-N was made Chairman Public Accounts Committee to monitor financial affairs of the government. Earlier Chief of JUI-F was also made head of Kashmir Committee. It is regrettable that despite enjoying power the two leaders failed to deliver.

PML-N leadership is also advised to work with an open heart and avoid its policy of victimizing leaders and activists of opponent parties. If there are evidences against erring people they must be brought to court of justice. An example to follow is Faisal Sallah Hayat, who gathered enough evidences against promoters of rental power plants as well as Raja Pervez Ashraf and helped the government in recovering billion of rupees given to the favorites.