Why does United States want an air base in Pakistan?

According to reports coming through western media the Government of Pakistan (GoP) refuses to publicly acknowledge that it has allowed the CIA operations and will want to proceed cautiously with a new relationship. In the recent past, the US has used a base in Pakistan to launch drone strikes against militants but, the facility had to be vacated in 2011, when US relations with Pakistan unraveled.

William J. Burns, Director CIA, recently made an unannounced visit to Islamabad to meet the chief of the Pakistani military and Head of the Directorate of Inter Services Intelligence. US Defence Secretary Lloyd J. Austin also has had frequent calls with the Pakistani military chief about getting the country’s help for future US operations in Afghanistan.

Historically United States has maintained bases in Pakistan and details can be tracked down starting from cold war era spying of USSR. At one time it became a security threat for the very existence of the country.

During long Afghan war the bases located in Pakistan were to be used for logistic support, but their use for drone attacks was common. While the rulers tried to cover up the deal, public dislike got louder with the passage of time.

The saga of the use of these bases is very interesting, at one time air support was provided to Afghan fighters, known as Taliban involved in Jihad against USSR. However, in post 9/11 era these bases were used against the same Taliban, labeled bad Taliban. In this regard Shamsi base remained in limelight for a long time.

All the times the United States has used ‘arms twisting’ tactics to get control of airbases in Pakistan. In this regard, a conspiracy theory got public attention, when the aero plane of chief of Pakistan Air Force was blown up in air. A number of other senior officers on board were also killed. It was said that his plane was blown up only because he was vehemently opposing establishment of the US air bases in Pakistan.

Alleged killing of air chief, makes solving of jigsaw puzzle easy. Afghanistan is a landlocked country and air support from Arabian Sea is not only too expensive, but time consuming also. Therefore, base/bases have to be established in countries enjoying common border with Afghanistan.  

India could be used but it is too far. United States does not enjoy cordial relations with Iran. Qatar is also too far. In such limiting conditions only Pakistan offers sustainable and cost effective option.

For the incumbent government of Imran Khan allowing establishment of the US bases in Pakistan is not an easy task. It is but obvious that this decision could become a security threat for Pakistan.

 

Who has attacked Saudi oil facility?

Western media controlled by those having vested interest was prompt in spreading the disinformation about attacks on Saudi oil facilities. It has used following pointers: 1) Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group has claimed responsibility of attacks, 2) Kingdom’s output will be knocked out more than half, 3) oil prices will surge and 4) tension will rise in the Middle East.

This is exactly what western media has been doing for ages, only the operators have been changing. One must not forget that these attacks have come in the aftermath of earlier cross-border attacks on Saudi oil installations and on oil tankers in Gulf waters, which have failed in skyrocketing oil prices.

Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State of United States was prompt in accusing Iran of the attacks. In the same breath he ruled out Yemeni involvement and denounced Tehran for engaging in false diplomacy. He claimed “Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia. He accused Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif for pretending to engage in diplomacy.”

Apparently the Zionists were happy when US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from a 2015 pact and imposed a series of sanctions that could cripple Iran’s economy. But in recent weeks they were annoyed when Trump said he would be open to meeting with Rouhani on the sidelines of the United National General Assembly in New York later this month. Pompeo had also said such talks could take place without any preconditions.

Let us review the immediate response of the US which alleges Iran for the attack. The sole purpose is to diminish any and every possibility of reconciliation with Iran and keep it out of oil trade. The ultimate beneficiary of high crude price is United States as 1) its Shale oil producers remain competitive and 2) it keeps on selling arms to Saudi Arabia.

One could also recall that President Trump has often said “Saudis can’t survive without their (US) help.” As the Kingdom was going for IPO of Aramco, its production has to be suspended to make the IPO a big failure. The attack is also aimed at proving that Saudis can’t protect their assets and must ask the US to provide security. Interestingly, it is beyond comprehension how a Houthi drone attack could curtail Saudi crude production to half?

The sole purpose of spreading disinformation is to jack up crude price. Certainly, if output is curtailed by 5.7 million barrels per day the price could raise up to US$10/ barrel on Monday. Since the US has the largest surplus production capacity, it will be the only beneficiary. The attack is also aimed at reducing the importance of newly appointed Saudi Oil Minister.

To create uncertainty and make crude price volatile, the news have started pouring in. “Abqaiq is the nerve center of the Saudi energy system. Even if exports resume in the next 24-48 hours, the image of invulnerability has been altered,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Reuters.

A Saudi-led coalition battling Yemen’s Houthi group said it was investigating drone attacks against Saudi oil installations and would confront terrorist threats to global energy security. “Investigations are ongoing to determine the parties responsible for planning and executing these terrorist attacks,” said coalition spokesman Colonel Turki al-Malki. Analysts can’t rule out putting the entire blame on Iran.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi dismissed the US allegation as pointless. A senior Revolutionary Guards commander warned that the Islamic Republic was ready for full-fledged war. He went to the extent of saying, “All the US bases and its aircraft carriers in a distance of up to 2,000 kilometers around Iran are within the range of our missiles.”

While the probability of any attack on Iran remains low, the US will be able to achieve its prime objective, jacking up crude oil prices. Western media has already started saying, “Aramco has given no timeline for output resumption, but return to full oil capacity could take weeks, not days.” Traders and analysts say crude price may spike to as high as US$100/barrel if Riyadh fails to quickly bring back supply.

Pakistan: Can the rulers develop consensus?

According to the results of recently held elections all the political parties enjoy the status of ruling junta. If members of some of these parties will be sitting on opposition benches in the national assembly, they will form the government at provincial levels.

Interestingly, MQM that has remained part of ruling junta has decided to sit on opposition benches at the federal as well as provincial levels. Under the emerging set up it is expected that the parties will preferably come up with policies through consensus and avoid confrontation.

The real test of their consensus is deciding fate of the drone attacks. All the parties during their election campaign were critical of these attacks and now the time has come to tell the super power ‘enough is enough’. It is expected that prime minister in waiting, Mian Nawaz Sharif may not be able to convince the United States alone but if he enjoys support of all the elected members, he can negotiate a better deal.

In the worst scenario Pakistan has the right to intercept and down any aircraft breaching its airspace. 

However, it is believed that these attacks enjoy the blessing of Government of Pakistan (GoP), which is also extending ground support. It is often alleged that Pakistan provide the necessary details for these attacks because at times undertaking such precise attacks are not possible from ground.

The classification of Taliban into good and bad and Taliban/TTP extending support to JI, JUI-F, PML-N and PTI is not likely to allow the ruling junta to continue support for drone attacks. Many questions bother Pakistanis, what is the reality of Taliban/TTP? Are they friend or foe? If they are friend why are they at war with Pakistan Army?

One of the ways to rationalize good or bad Taliban is, those who cooperate with US-led Nato forces are called good and those who consider them ‘occupier’ have been clasified bad. Though, it has been decided to withdraw Nato forces from Afghanistan, there are fears that there will never be complete withdrawal. United States will retain bases in Afghanistan, party to keep Iran under pressure and partly to get control over the goods going to Central Asian countries via Afghanistan.

In Afghanistan United States is also supporting India in maintaining its hegemony; in fact the US wants the countries located in the region to accept India as a regional power. This is aimed at keeping Pakistan under pressure. In such a scenario Mian Sahib may find granting India MFN status a difficult task. His other associates, religious parties are also not likely to support him in developing too cordial relationships with India.

To overcome energy crisis Mian Sahib is demanding Rs500 billion, which has to be mobilized through imposing new taxes and/or raising rates of existing taxes. It is feared that he may also resort to hike in electricity and gas tariff, which will not be endorsed by his opponents.

Ironically, Mian Sahib has not come up with any policy to contain rampant pilferage of electricity and gas and recovery of outstanding dues. It is necessary to remind him that hike in tariffs just can’t improve cash flow of electric and gas utilities.

Targeted killing has once again resurfaced in Karachi and the worst victim is Shia community. Ironically, some of the religious parties and banned outfits enjoy most cordial relationship with PML-N. The time has come to catch the perpetrators and give them exemplary punishment.

Pakistan Succumbing to US Pressure

And finally Pakistan has opened Nato supply route, without demanding any transit fee on simple sorry by Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State.

In return Pakistan is likely to get US$1.1 billion due under Coalition Support Fund, which has been subject of wrangling between the two countries.

Pakistan’s claims often rejected and smaller sums approved by Washington for reimbursement. It is not a favor because the amount had been approved and already gone through the process and pertains to services rendered before closure of the supply route.

The announcement coming from the two governments suggest that the suspension of Nato supplies was not in the interest of Pakistan, which seem incorrect. In fact Nato had to incur almost three times the expense in using alternate routes. On top of all opening of route was necessary for withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, expected to commence in 2014.

Most offending is one of the editorials published in The New York Times alleging that the military of the 'crippled and chaotic' state continues to play a double game of accepting aid from America while enabling the Afghan Taliban. It also said that Pakistan's political system is growing ‘ever more dysfunctional’.

Pakistanis fail to understand because on one hand says the US administration says it needs Pakistan’s help in reopening a critical supply route to Afghanistan and in urging the Taliban to engage in peace talks so that combat troops can be withdrawn from Afghanistan by the end of 2014 and on the other hand Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says “reaching the limits of our patience.”

According to the editorial the US President, Barak Obama declined to hold an official meeting with President of Pakistan, Asif Zardari at the NATO summit meeting in Chicago in May. It also said The United States has little choice but to continue drone attacks on militants in Pakistan. It has urged India to become more involved in Afghanistan. Surprising was the phrase ‘Pakistan is paranoid about India’, which it sees as a mortal adversary.

Equally disturbing for Pakistan and United States should be the threats from Pakistani Taliban to attack Nato supply trucks and kill its drivers if they tried to resume supplies to troops in Afghanistan. Prior to the closure they have carried out dozens of attacks; disrupting supplies destined for Afghanistan, and have repeatedly warned of more if Pakistan reopened supply route.

Opening up of Nato route is likely to get fierce response from religious groups and politicians who have been demanding Pakistan should pull itself out of proxy US war in Afghanistan. Opponents of the present regime enjoy street power and if these demonstrations turn violent containing these would be difficult.