When dozens of world leaders convene in Washington, DC, for
the NATO 75th anniversary summit next week, they won’t only be looking to
underscore the unity of the alliance — they will also be carefully watching US
President Joe Biden after his poor debate performance last week.
Biden’s showing at the CNN presidential debate was met with
shock and concern by diplomats around the world. Now, the president will be
under immense pressure to perform well at the high-stakes gathering and show
that he is still a viable competitor to former President Donald Trump, multiple
diplomats told CNN.
The
concern is compounded because many believe Trump poses a threat to the future
of NATO. He publicly railed against the alliance during his first term in
office and did so again recently on the campaign trail, even going as far as
suggesting Russia “do whatever the hell they want” to members who don’t meet
defense spending targets.
Questions about Biden and his political future inject
further uncertainty into a summit where key allies are also dealing with major
political changes.
The
Labour Party took power in the United Kingdom overnight for the first time in
more than a decade, putting a new prime minister — Keir Starmer — in place just
days before the start of the summit on Tuesday.
On
Sunday, the second round of French parliamentary elections is taking place,
which could potentially lead to a far-right prime minister taking office in a
massive defeat to President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition.
However, as one former senior US diplomat said, there will
“certainly be a spotlight” on Biden at the NATO summit.
“How does he look? And how does he sound? And how does he
move? Does he look fit? And I suppose he and his team (will) be trying to focus
on making him look spry and more with it,” said the former diplomat, who is a
veteran of several of NATO summits.
Biden will undoubtedly be feeling the pressure to perform
well, the former diplomat said.
The
three-day summit is highly choreographed, and typically little is left to
chance. It is preceded by months and months of prep work, discussion and
negotiations among the 32 member countries.
During the summit, there will be numerous opportunities for
counterparts to interact with Biden — the North Atlantic Council meeting,
formal bilateral meetings, a leader’s dinner.
The president will be supported and accompanied to key
meetings by Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other key national
security officials. Officials such as Blinken and Austin may have one-on-one
meetings with their counterparts as well.
Diplomats say the chances of Biden making a major blunder at
the NATO summit are limited, but one European diplomat said, that even if Biden
does well, “This will still leave doubt,” given how poorly he performed at the
debate.
“If there is another clear failure, this will feed into the
‘crisis mood,’” this diplomat said.
The allies are not expected to raise Biden’s debate
performance with him directly, but it is expected that they will discuss the
debate and their observations next week among themselves.
Another European diplomat said they believe the debate will
be used, “even subconsciously, as a benchmark in all kinds of contexts” between
now and Election Day.
CNN has reached out to the White House for comment. One US
official said they were not aware of concerns that Biden’s debate performance
would overshadow the NATO summit, saying that the leaders have spent a good
deal of time with the US president, including last month at the G7 summit in
Italy.
However, some diplomats were already concerned about Biden’s
endurance that summit.
Another source told CNN that British officials who spoke
with Biden during the G7 in June assessed he was fine and with it when it came
to topics discussed during meetings, but that there was a lot of concern after
the debate performance that he did not perform like the same person they
interacted with in the meetings.
Adding to the pressure is the increased significance of this
year’s NATO summit. The alliance will mark its 75th anniversary and seek to
shore up consensus on issues such as support to Ukraine, particularly ahead of
a potential change in leadership in the United States.
Trump’s
stance on the campaign trail that his adherence to the alliance would be conditional
has stirred concerns in the international community. Some question whether
Trump will seize the opportunity to again denounce NATO next week. The former
US diplomat remarked that “it’s hard to imagine him staying out of it.”
One NATO diplomat told CNN that the attention on Biden next
week is a double-edged sword — while they appreciate the immense attention on
the summit, there is concern that the actual substance will be lost as all eyes
are on the US president.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has sought to focus
attention on the content of the summit and away from Biden’s debate
performance.
“Next week, in Washington, DC, as you know, the historic
summit is to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding,” White House press
secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday.
“For 75 years, NATO has kept us and the world safer. And
under the president’s leadership, this president’s leadership, our Alliance is
stronger, it’s larger, it’s more united than ever.”