India threatens to terminate Indus Water Treaty

India has announced to take a series of retaliatory measures, including its intent to terminate the Indus Waters Treaty. This significant development is likely to heighten geopolitical risks in the region.

The Treaty signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan under the mediation of the World Bank, governs the sharing of the waters of the Indus River and its tributaries. The treaty allocates the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) to India, and the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan, with limited rights for India to use the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes such as hydroelectric power generation.

The treaty has survived multiple conflicts and is considered one of the most successful examples of water-sharing agreements in the world.

If India were to unilaterally withdraw from the treaty, it would likely violate international law, as such agreements are generally considered binding and cannot be terminated unilaterally without consequences.

For Pakistan, any disruption to the flow of the western rivers could have severe implications for agriculture, which is the backbone of its economy, as well as for water availability in key regions. 

 

Iran condemns Kashmir terror attack

Esmail Baqaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry has condemned Tuesday’s terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which killed and wounded dozens of civilians, including foreign nationals.

Describing the assault as a “severe crime violating all international legal norms and human rights principles,” Baqaei expressed Tehran’s solidarity with New Delhi in an official statement, offering condolences to victims’ families and wishing injured survivors a speedy recovery.

The spokesperson reiterated Iran’s unwavering opposition to terrorism in all its forms, stressing the necessity for strengthened regional and global coordination to eradicate this scourge and hold perpetrators accountable.

He emphasized that Iran, as a steadfast advocate for multilateral anti-terror frameworks, urges immediate action to prosecute those behind the attack.

The attack in South Kashmir's Pahalgam Baisaran Valley, a popular tourist destination, has been described as the deadliest strike on civilians in the subcontinental area since 2019.

Preliminary reports indicate at least 30 deaths and dozens more injuries. 

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah called the incident “unprecedented in scale” compared to recent civilian-targeted violence, while authorities continue to verify the final casualty figures.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned the attack on X and wrote, “Those behind this heinous act will be brought to justice.”

 

 

India downgrades ties with Pakistan

According to Reuters, India has announced a raft of measures to downgrade its ties with Pakistan on Wednesday, a day after suspected militants killed 26 men at a tourist destination in Kashmir in the worst attack on civilians in the country in nearly two decades.

Diplomatic ties between the nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours were weak even before the latest measures were announced as Pakistan had expelled India's envoy and not posted its own ambassador in New Delhi after India revoked the special status of Kashmir in 2019.

Pakistan had also halted its main train service to India and banned Indian films, seeking to exert diplomatic pressure.

Tuesday's attack is seen as a setback to what Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party have projected as a major achievement in revoking the semi-autonomous status Jammu and Kashmir enjoyed and bringing peace and development to the long-troubled Muslim-majority region.

On Wednesday, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told a media briefing that the cross-border involvement in the Kashmir attack was underscored at a special security cabinet meeting, prompting it to act against Pakistan.

He said New Delhi would immediately suspend the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty "until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism."

The treaty, mediated by the World Bank, split the Indus River and its tributaries between the neighbours and regulated the sharing of water. It had so far withstood even wars between the neighbours.

Pakistan is heavily dependent on water flowing downstream from this river system from Indian Kashmir for its hydropower and irrigation needs. Suspending the treaty would allow India to deny Pakistan its share of the waters.

India also closed the only open land border crossing point between the two countries and said that those who have crossed into India can return through the point before May 01, 2025.

With no direct flights operating between the two countries, the move severs all transport links between them.

 

Cases dropped against Inauguration donors

A new analysis released on Monday, following the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, reveals that the Trump administration has dropped or paused federal enforcement actions against at least 17 corporations that contributed to the president’s inaugural fund.

The findings suggest that corporate donations to President Donald Trump’s second inauguration are yielding favorable outcomes for the companies involved.

Corporations facing federal lawsuits and investigations aren't giving millions to Trump's inauguration out of the kindness of their hearts. They're buying goodwill.

The watchdog group Public Citizen cross-referenced FEC data published on Sunday with its Corporate Enforcement Tracker, which monitors companies embroiled in federal legal actions.

According to the report, corporations under federal investigation or enforcement lawsuits contributed a total of US$50 million to Trump’s inaugural committee. Trump raised a record-setting US$239 million for his second inauguration, the filings show.

“Corporations facing federal lawsuits and investigations aren't donating millions out of goodwill,” said Rick Claypool, a researcher with Public Citizen. “They're attempting to buy influence. When a company is under investigation or prosecution, that influence can mean having cases dropped, settlements withdrawn, or even pardons granted.”

Notable companies whose federal enforcement cases were dismissed after donating to Trump’s inauguration include Bank of America, Capital One, Coinbase, DuPont, and JPMorgan Chase.

The report also highlights potential benefits for Google, which donated US$1 million. During an ongoing antitrust case, the Trump Justice Department abandoned a proposed breakup plan that would have required Google to divest its artificial intelligence assets. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google’s parent company, Alphabet, was among several prominent corporate leaders given high-profile roles during the January ceremony.

Other inauguration donors have reaped different rewards. For instance, after Intuit, the tax preparation giant, donated US$1 million, the Trump administration moved to dismantle the IRS’s free Direct File program—a move that critics say serves Intuit’s interests.

Former US Labor Secretary Robert Reich drew attention to the pattern on social media noted, Apple donated US$1 million. Trump exempted most of Apple's imports from tariffs.

Coinbase donated US$1 million. Trump's SEC dropped a major lawsuit against them.

Observers have raised growing concerns about apparent pay-to-play corruption in the early months of Trump’s second term. Critics argue the administration has effectively put a “For Sale” sign on the White House.

Further blurring the lines between governance and corporate influence, CBS News reported that this year’s White House Easter Egg Roll was largely sponsored by private companies—a departure from the traditional support of the American Egg Board. Sponsors included Amazon, YouTube, and Meta, which funded various stations at the event.

“Nothing says Happy Easter in Trump 2.0 like corporate sponsorships at the White House Egg Roll,” Public Citizen commented. “They never miss an opportunity for a little old-fashioned corporate bribery.”

Gold record run gains further traction

Gold remarkable run higher is reaching new heights, with the market touching US$3,500 per ounce as confidence in the US economy further erodes after President Donald Trump's renewed attack on the Federal Reserve chair. Spot gold was trading around US$3,428 per ounce by 1417 GMT, after hitting a record US$3,500.05 earlier in the session, reports Reuters.

Trump said on Monday the US economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately, repeating his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell as being slow to act and calling him a "major loser".

That was followed by a furious flight from US assets which undermined Wall Street and the dollar, while concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve piled fresh pressure on Treasuries.

"Gold is recalibrating to reflect what can only be described as epic changes in the global financial system. And those changes are a widespread and fundamental shift in confidence in the world’s reserve currency and its bond markets," said independent analyst Ross Norman.

Bullion, renowned as a hedge against uncertainties and a highly liquid asset, has surged more than US$800 since the start of the year. It surpassed US$3,300 last Wednesday, and its strong momentum pushed it up by nearly US$200 in just a few days.

Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, said central bank demand is very likely chasing gold's move higher, because Trump 2.0’s chaos only hardens gold’s appeal as a geopolitical asset".

In the final quarter of 2024, when Trump won the US election, central bank purchases accelerated 54% year-on-year to 333 tons, according to an estimate from the World Gold Council.

Data showed that China's central bank added gold to its reserves in March for the fifth straight month. China is considering setting up overseas warehouses to aid international settlement of specific products on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, its central bank said.

ANZ last week also raised its year-end gold price forecast to US$3,600.

Asked about a pause in the rally, analysts and experts said any correction is likely to be short-lived, and greater gains are most likely on the horizon if instability persists.

"It is hard just now to see a scenario where gold could correct sharply lower as a physical floor of Johnny-come-lately buyers would support or cushion the decline," said Norman.

Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said a major road block for gold would be a less confrontative President Trump, either on the side of trade or on the side of monetary policy - both of which seem rather unlikely at the moment.

Spot gold has hit 28 record highs so far in 2025, of which 16 are above the US$3,000/ oz milestone. Prices are up 31% so far this year, after ending 2024 with a 27% annual rise.

Pros and cons of importing US oil for Pakistan

Pakistan is considering importing crude oil from the United States to offset a trade imbalance that triggered higher US tariffs. However, many analysts question the economic viability of the proposal. Let us explore prose and cons of the proposal.

Pakistan imported 137,000 barrels per day of crude in 2024, mostly light grades from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates among its top suppliers. Oil imports amounted over US$5 billion in 2024.

In February 2025, Saudi Arabia, through the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD), extended a US$1.2 billion financing facility to Pakistan for the import of oil products for a year. The SFD has provided approximately US$7 billion to Islamabad for oil products since 2019.

While the Government seems adamant at importing crude oil from the United States, experts have to find credible replies in favor of the move.

​Importing crude oil from the US could be a strategically viable option for Pakistan, but it involves several economic, logistical, and technical considerations.​

Potential Benefits

Reducing Trade Imbalance and Tariffs
Pakistan is exploring the import of US crude oil to address a US$3 billion trade surplus with the US, which has led to a 29% tariff on Pakistani exports. By purchasing approximately US$1 billion worth of US crude, Pakistan aims to mitigate these tariffs and improve trade relations.

Diversification of Energy Sources
Currently, Pakistan relies heavily on Middle Eastern countries for its crude oil imports, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE accounting for over 95% of its supply. Introducing US crude into the mix could enhance energy security by diversifying supply sources.

Challenges and Constraints

Refinery Compatibility
Pakistani refineries are primarily configured to process Middle Eastern light crude. While the exact compatibility with US crude grades varies, historical challenges with processing non-Middle Eastern crude, such as Russian oil, suggest potential technical limitations.

Higher Transportation Costs
Transporting crude oil from the United States involves longer distances as compared to Middle Eastern sources, leading to increased shipping costs and logistical complexities.

Dependence on Existing Financial Support
Saudi Arabia provides significant financial assistance to Pakistan for oil imports, shifting a portion of imports to the US might affect these favorable financing arrangements.

 Infrastructure Considerations

Pakistan's current oil import infrastructure includes ports like Karachi and specialized facilities such as Cnergyico's Single Point Mooring (SPM), capable of handling large crude carriers. While these facilities can accommodate increased imports, the overall capacity and efficiency of the supply chain would need assessment to handle US crude effectively.

Importing crude oil from the United States presents an opportunity to Pakistan to diversify its energy sources and address trade imbalances. However, it requires careful consideration of refinery capabilities, transportation logistics, and existing financial dependencies.

 

Threat to Powell tanks markets

According to Bloomberg, President Donald Trump sent the US stock market plummeting again, this time with social media snark and derisive playground nicknames aimed at the Chair of the US Federal Reserve.

The president, under increasing pressure for singlehandedly destabilizing global markets with his trade war, has turned his attention to interest rates in a bid to avoid what economists increasingly fear is a recession dead ahead.

Trump’s public mulling over whether he can legally fire Powell have market watchers eyeing a potential broad-based loss of confidence in the US economy if he were to try it.

The 78-year-old Republican’s taunts came before he met with executives of major retailers at the White House—those whose businesses are set to bear the brunt of tariffs the White House has temporarily suspended. The Monday meeting was said to have included representatives from Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target. 

By the time markets closed, the S&P 500 and other major US stock indices had dropped around 2.5%, The gauge of the dollar weakened to a 15-month low. The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell with the yield reaching 4.4%.

As investors turned away from US securities, haven assets climbed. Gold jumped to another record, above US$3,400 an ounce, while the Swiss franc gained around 1% against the dollar.