Trump fires Biden appointees and Hook

According to The Hill, US President Donald Trump announced the firing of four high-profile presidential appointees just after midnight Tuesday. These include a top envoy to Iran during his first term, Brian Hook, and retired Gen. Mark Milley, whom Trump tapped as Joint Chiefs chair in 2018.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that fired Hook from the Wilson Center; Milley from the National Infrastructure Advisory Council; celebrity chef and humanitarian José Andrés from the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness and Nutrition; and Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, from the President’s Export Council.

“Our first day in the White House is not over yet! My Presidential Personnel Office is actively in the process of identifying and removing over a thousand Presidential Appointees from the previous Administration, who are not aligned with our vision to Make America Great Again,” Trump posted on Truth Social just past midnight Tuesday. 

“Let this serve as Official Notice of Dismissal for these 4 individuals, with many more, coming soon,” Trump said before listing off the four officials in the post that ended with “YOU’RE FIRED!” 

Milley, the former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was given a preemptive pardon by former President Biden in the final hours of his presidency. Milley has at times forcefully criticized Trump, and Trump has suggested he should be court-martialed and executed.

The retired general’s portrait at the Pentagon, hung in the Joint Chiefs hallway, was taken down Monday less than two weeks after it was put up.

Hook, who served under former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during Trump’s first term, was an Iran hawk who supported sanctions the Trump administration imposed on Iran. 

Bottoms was a senior adviser on Biden’s reelection campaign, after deciding against running for a second term as Atlanta’s mayor.

Andrés, the founder of World Central Kitchen, has questioned whether Trump can carry out his ambitious deportation plans, and seems to be considering a future in politics himself.

In a flurry of executive orders Trump signed Monday, he also ordered federal workers return to the office five days a week.

 

Trump's decisions good or bad

In a nearly 30-minute speech, Donald Trump called for “change” after he claimed a litany of national failures under Biden’s watch. His first standing ovation came after announcing that he would declare a national emergency at the Southern border, a move that will allow the Pentagon to deploy troops to the region.

The declaration would also free up resources to build a wall at the US-Mexico border, an effort he was forced to abandon at the end of his last administration.

Trump later said he would reinstate service members who were fired for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine and give them full back pay.

The GOP has long vowed to reinstate troops fired for refusing the vaccine. They slipped in the 2024 defense authorization bill a requirement for the Pentagon to consider reinstatement for that reason.

Trump also said he would stop “radical political theories” and “social experiments” for members of the armed forces. “It’s going to end immediately,” he said.

Trump vowed to “build the strongest military the world has ever seen.”

In addition, he said the US will once again become a “growing nation,” vowing to take back the Panama Canal during his inauguration speech.

The newly sworn-in president added that he wants his legacy to be that of a “peacemaker and unifier” as he touted the release of Israeli hostages a day before his inauguration.

One notable omission from his inaugural speech was the Russia-Ukraine war, soon to enter its third year. Trump has promised to end the conflict war even before he was sworn in.

The immediate visible effects of the new Trump administration could be found at the Pentagon, where a portrait of retired Gen. Mark Milley, the former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who has feuded in highly public spats with Trump, was taken down on Monday. No reason was given for the change.

Trump has clashed with Milley over several national security issues during his first time in the White House, with Trump once suggesting that the four-star general deserved to be executed. Milley, who retired in 2023, has called Trump a fascist.

In his last few hours in the Oval Office on Monday, Joe Biden issued pre-emptive pardons to Milley and several other people, which he said were not an admittance of guilt but were issued for their service.

 

US imposes sanctions on Yemen-Kuwait Bank

According to Reuters, the United States on Friday imposed sanctions on a Yemen-based financial institution that Washington accused of financially supporting the Houthis, as President Joe Biden's administration sought to further pressure the militant group before Biden leaves office.

The US Treasury Department in a statement said it imposed sanctions on Yemen Kuwait Bank, accusing it of helping the Houthis exploit the Yemeni banking sector to launder money and transfer funds to allies, including Lebanon's Hezbollah.

The Houthis have carried out more than 100 attacks on ships since November 2023. They have sunk two vessels, seized another and killed at least four seafarers. The intensity of the attacks has disrupted global shipping and prompted route changes.

The attacks have disrupted international commerce, forcing some ships to take the long route around southern Africa rather than the Suez Canal, leading to increases in insurance rates, delivery costs and time that stoked global inflation fears.

The Houthis seized power in Yemen in late 2014 and control most parts of the country including the capital Sanaa. They have also launched missiles and drones towards Israel, hundreds of kilometres to the north. Israel has responded by striking Houthi areas on several occasions. Last week Israeli warplanes bombed two ports and a power station.

The US alongside Britain launched a multinational operation in December 2023 to safeguard commerce in the Red Sea, and has repeatedly conducted air strikes on Houthi strongholds targeting weapons storage facilities.

Biden's action, ahead of the inauguration on Monday of President-elect Donald Trump, freezes any of Yemen Kuwait Bank's US assets and generally bars Americans from dealing with it. Those that engage in certain transactions with it also risk being hit with US sanctions.

 

 

Trump and his plutocrats

In one of my not so recent posts, US Election: Selecting Lesser (Bigger) Evil dated July 27, 2024, I had written whoever wins the US Presidential Election will have to work according to the wishes of three most influential groups of the country: 1) military complexes, 2) oil & gas exploration companies and 3) Wall Street. Donald Trump is schedules to take oath on Monday, January 20, 2025.

Today, I refer to an article by Trope Folarin, Executive Director of Institute of Policy Studies (IPS). The details are worth reading and should be an eye opener for those who are under illusion that Trump era-2 will bring peace and prosperity in the United States and around the world.

Trump will be joined onstage by Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and other billionaires. Despite Trump’s ostensibly populist campaign, the moment will symbolize his toxic linkage of extremist, far-right bigotry with the class interests of billionaires.

Their wealth is already skyrocketing. As Chuck Collins calculates from Forbes wealth data, at the end of 2024 there were 813 US billionaires with a combined total wealth of US$6.72 trillion. These billionaires and plutocrats are getting a front row seat in the next administration, Sam Pizzigati adds.

In another piece, Chuck highlights new data showing how fossil fuel barons are bankrolling Trump. It’s no wonder Trump is expected to immediately withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Accords (again) — a step the Climate Policy Program has condemned.

It is another irony that the inauguration will be held on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. 

As a courageous advocate of racial and economic justice, King would be disgusted by this display. But through the multi-racial, multi-issue Poor People’s Campaign he co-founded toward the end of his life, King also showed how these racist plutocrats can be defeated ‑ by coming together.

IPS is the research arm of the modern Poor People’s Campaign, a movement of poor people for peace and racial, economic, and environmental justice. And despite the crisis in the US politics, Americans see several signs people can still pull together to transform the system.

As Trump takes office, Peter Certo lays out five popular checks on Trump's agenda, building on some major wins in 2024 — from unionization campaigns to an invigorated peace movement, climate wins, and progressive victories at the state and local levels.

"Our politics are a mess right now. But our country isn’t 'lost' — only our leaders are,” he writes. “When Americans organize around our common decency, it’s going to get a lot harder for bullies like Trump to walk over us.”

 

John Feffer has also warned how Trump’s policies could deepen the global climate crisis. Hanna Homestead and Aspen Coriz-Romero explain how the US subsidizes militarism while underfunding climate solutions. Sulma Arias connects Trump’s looming immigration crackdown to the greed of private prison companies.

Christine Ahn explains in the Chronicle of Philanthropy how philanthropists can embrace a progressive feminist policy vision and fight militarism through their giving.

 

Trope Folarin, Executive Director IPA offers a bit of inauguration counterprogramming with his new piece in Places Journal, “The City Was All I Had.” 

 

PSX benchmark index up 1.8%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed volatility during the week ended on January 17, 2025 due to political uncertainty surrounding the announcement of the graft case involving PTI Chief, Imran Khan. However, following the verdict’s announcement on Friday, market regained momentum, with the benchmark KSE-100 posting a gain of 2,025 points, up 1.8%WoWto close at 115,272 points.

Overall, Banks, Power, and Pharma sectors were the primary contributors to the weekly index rally.

On the macro front, Pakistan’s current account for December 2024 recorded a surplus of US$582 million, driven by 9%YoY increase in remittances. This brings the 1HFY25 current account to a surplus of US$1.2 billion as against a deficit of US$1.4 billion during the same period last year.

Circular debt pertaining to power sector decreased by 11%YoY in November 2024, falling to PKR2.38 trillion, and the continuation of this trend is expected to improve the cash-flow situation for the country’s energy sector.

With easing prices of seasonal perishable food items, weekly inflation (SPI) declined to a 7-year low of 1.2%YoY. As against this, industrial activity remained subdued, with the LSM index down by 1.3%YoY in 5MFY25.

Market participation also dropped, with average daily traded volume falling by 29%WoW to 558 million shares, from 782 million shares in the earlier week.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose by US$30 million to US$11.7 billion as of January 10, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Saudi firm Manara likely to invest in Reko Diq mine 2) World Bank pledges US$40 billion to Pakistan under 10-year framework, 3) Urea sales increased by 58%YoY during CY24 to 6.6 million tons, 4) prices of POL products increased and 5) Car sales surge by 51%YoY in 1HFY25.

Refinery, Pharmaceuticals, and Power generation & distribution were amongst the top performing sectors, while Jute, Leasing companies, and Sugar were the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners and Mutual Funds with a total net sell of US$15.7 million. Individuals and Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$21.3 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: SEARL, GLAXO, ATRL, NRL, and PSEL, while laggards included: ENGROH, PABC, JDWS, AKBL, PGLC.

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities the PSX is expected to maintain its positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income securities to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

With easing inflation, the upcoming MPC meeting, scheduled on January 27, 2025, will remain a key focus.

Over the medium term, the KSE-100 is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum, primarily driven by the strong profitability of fertilizer companies, higher sustainable RoEs of banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.

 

Iran third largest oil producer of OPEC family

According to OPEC’s first report of 2025, Iran maintained its position as the organization’s third-largest oil producer in December 2024, with an average daily production of 3.314 million barrels.

Data from OPEC’s Secretariat revealed that the organization’s 12 member states produced a combined total of 26.741 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, marking an increase of 26,000 bpd from November.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq retained their positions as the top two producers, with daily outputs of 8.938 million barrels and 4.019 million barrels, respectively.

Production from OPEC Plus members, which includes OPEC countries and allied producers, reached 13.913 million bpd in December, a decrease of 40,000 bpd compared to the previous month.

Overall, the combined output of OPEC and its allies in December totalled 40.654 million bpd, slightly lower than November’s 40.669 million bpd.

Iran’s heavy crude oil price averaged US$73 per barrel in December 2024, reflecting 0.3% increase. For the entire year of 2024, the average price of Iran’s heavy crude stood at US$79.71 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the OPEC Reference Basket price averaged US$73.07 per barrel in December 2024, a 1.0%MoM increase.

OPEC’s January report forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 1.45 million bpd in 2025, reaching a total of 105.2 million bpd.

The organization also projects that global demand will rise by an additional 1.43 million bpd in 2026, bringing the total to 105.63 million bpd.

  

Red sea threats likely to prevail over

A potential end is in sight to the war between Israel and Hamas that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and upended international supply chains, although last minute wranglings over the terms of a ceasefire are ongoing.

A ceasefire in the conflict that sparked Houthi attacks on shipping in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will not immediately remove the risk to ships within the Houthis’ range of attack from the coast of Yemen.

Speaking to Seatrade Maritime News on January 14, Daniel Muller, Intelligence Analyst for the Middle East at Ambrey, said that the Houthi attacks on shipping are closely linked to the war in Gaza as a means of targeting assets linked to Israel and its allies. However, the point at which Houthi attacks will end is unclear, and there is a risk of a return to civil war in Yemen, he warned.

“It is assessed highly unlikely the Israel Defence Forces would withdraw from the Gaza Strip straight away. Therefore, it is assessed unlikely that a ceasefire would immediately result in the Houthi ceasing attacks on merchant shipping. Ambrey assesses the Houthi actions to be linked to Israeli military forces operating within the Strip,” said Muller.

While the details of the ceasefire agreement have not been officially announced, reports indicate that it will bring about a three-stage process, beginning in the first stage with a full and complete ceasefire for six weeks, the release of dozens of hostages, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas of Gaza.

The second stage would see remaining Israeli hostages released along with the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

The third and final stage is understood to be the reconstruction of Gaza, which has been devastated by Israeli strikes and invasion since October 2023.

“Ambrey assesses the Houthi actions to be linked to Israeli military forces operating within the Strip,” said Muller. If that assessment holds to be true, the Houthi threat to shipping would remain until the end of stage two of the peace process. The risk assessment for ships is complicated by a recent lull in attacks, due in part to reduced Houthi capacity and in part to a lack of viable targets as ships continue to avoid the area within Houthi targeting range. A long break in attacks will need to be assessed against viable opportunities to attack targets considered valid by the Houthis.

Whether the ceasefire progresses or not, the political situation in Yemen will remain of significance to the shipping industry, as developments there could lead the Houthis to target a wider range of vessels.

“A resurgence of the Yemeni Civil War remains possible, which could lead to a change in intent, targeting coalition shipping instead of Israel-affiliated vessels.

The US is reportedly attempting to garner the intelligence support of Saudi Arabia and the Internationally Recognised Government of Yemen to increase the effectiveness of US airstrikes against the Houthi.

“The Houthi have repeatedly warned Saudi Arabia not to intervene against the Houthi’s attacks on Israel. Any active support of US airstrikes in northwest Yemen may be construed as a direct attack against the Houthi and a revival of the Yemeni Civil War. Renewed clashes in Taiz in December 2024 did not lead to an escalation of the internal conflict yet indicated the fragility of the unofficial ceasefire,” said Muller.

Muller said a return to ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would be gradual, a point Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, agreed with.

“Xeneta does not expect a full return to Red Sea transits immediately. But the ceasefire may mean that more shipowners will look at the risk differently and therefore perhaps bring ships back.

At first those containerships with a capacity below 10,000 teu, lastly the very large 18,000-24,000 teu containerships,” Sand noted in a Linkedin post.

Sand said a return to the Red Sea will bring increased scrapping in the containership segment, as the market loses the roughly 1.8 million teu of capacity demand sustained by rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope. Plans will be in place for the return to the Red Sea, he said, a position supported by the new container alliances due to come online next month, which have published plans for both Suez Canal and Cape of Good Hope rotations.

Freight rates across the container, tanker and dry bulk markets are expected to fall significantly when the Red Sea reopens.