Israel occupies vast land of Syria

According to the Hebrew media Israeli military has occupied more than 370 square kilometers of Syria that is larger than the besieged Gaza Strip. 

On Tuesday, it was reported that Israeli infantry was advancing in some neighborhoods of the city of Hader in Quneitra province, southwestern Syria.

The Israeli news television channel i24 NEWS stated that Israeli ground forces destroyed Syrian army military sites and assets in southern Syria.

The Israeli news outlet indicated that the activity was approved by the necessary levels and carried out with the assistance of armored battalions deployed in the region and infantry fighters.

According to the Israeli military correspondent Yinon Shalom Yitah, the operation targeted military infrastructure belonging to the Syrian army.

Since the fall of the Syrian president, the Israeli army continues to seize territory, after occupying Jabal Sheikh (Mount Hermon) and the buffer zone in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

The occupation forces are now only 15 kilometers away from the international highway between Damascus and Beirut.

They have also seized the most significant freshwater sources in southern Syria, located along the Yarmouk River. 

For decades, a large portion of Syrian households and businesses have relied on these basins along the Yarmouk River for sanitized water supplies. 

The Israeli occupation continues its attacks on military positions to neutralize Syria’s combat capability. 

The Israeli army claimed that its attacks over the past few days have “severely damaged Syria’s air defense system,” destroying “more than 90% of strategic surface-to-air missiles.”

Meanwhile, Israeli occupation forces continue a ground invasion into southern Syria, expanding its control over new Syrian villages along the border with Lebanon.

Israeli occupation forces have brought in engineering equipment towards the slopes of Jabal Sheikh (Mount Hermon) in a bid to dig trenches and prevent any potential connection with Lebanese territories.

Pakistan: SBP cuts policy rate by 200bps

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of  the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its meeting on December 16, 2024 decided to reduce the benchmark policy rate by 200bps to 13.00%.

The MPC highlighted that despite falling inflation, core inflation remains sticky, with near-term inflation likely to remain volatile.

Additionally, growth prospects have improved as reflected by the recent uptick in high-frequency indicators, with the impact of the easing beginning to unfold.

Improving business confidence and easing financial conditions are expected to support economic growth. Accordingly, the MPC expects the real GDP growth in FY25 to remain in the range of 2.5% to 3%.

On the external front, strong remittances and exports along with favorable international commodity prices, are expected to keep current account deficit below1% of GDP in FY25.

Resultantly, foreign exchange reserves held by SBP are anticipated to exceed US$13 billion by end June 2025.

On the fiscal front, declining yields will lead to a sizeable saving in interest payments on domestic debt compared to the budget estimates. However, achieving the target for primary surplus will be challenging.

The M2 growth has decelerated mainly due to drop in Government borrowing. Meanwhile, credit to private sector has picked up as banks have expedited lending to meet ADR thresholds by Dec’24.

Finally, factors contributing to the NCPI fall are likely to continue, going forward.

 

 

Al-Jolani: A terrorist being used against Iran

The man who helped oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last week embodies a blend of traits drawn from some of Washington’s most infamous creations: The attire of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, the terrorist background of slain Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, and the strident anti-Iranian rhetoric of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Washington’s US$10 million bounty on Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s head hasn’t stopped Western media from trying to sanitize his image. In an interview with CNN a few days before the fall of Assad’s government, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader was introduced as a misunderstood revolutionary, whose youthful exuberance somehow prompted him to behead civilians on a regular basis. 

“I never had the intent to do these things. [I was] at a certain state of consciousness and young age back then,” he told the CNN reporter, while the female journalist nodded her head in understanding.  The terror leader added that the only threats against Syria were Iran and Hezbollah.

As the world ponders whether it should give the Al-Qaeda and Daesh affiliate a second chance, Iran is likely to reach a clear conclusion sooner. The reason? Al-Jolani seems adamant about sticking to part of his character inspired by Netanyahu.

In similar remarks to his CNN interview on Saturday, al-Jolani said the HTS has no animosity towards the Iranian people, a line usually used by Netanyahu whose biggest dream is to pummel Iran and divide the country into different states.

While he also spoke about his intentions to “unite Syria” and respect all groups in his potential future government, al-Jolani failed to roll out any plans about the elephant in the room, Israel’s recent occupation of new regions in Syria, and its nonstop bombardment of the country in the past week.

The HTS leader said Syria will not be engaging in any military conflict with Israel because it is “not ready”. He did, however, say that Israel has no reason to attack Syria, as “Iranian forces have left the country”. Israel has bombed Syrian soil on over 2000 occasions since December 08.  According to the regime, over 80% of Syria’s military infrastructure now lies in ruins.

Elsewhere in his remarks, al-Jolani said he will not be joining the Axis of Resistance in support of Palestinians.

For the most part, so far, al-Jolani has acted as the perfect Western puppet. He has changed his looks to better fit Western TV, he demonizes Iran, and he has a phenomenon indifference to Israeli aggressions against his country.

Much to the dismay of Washington and Al-Jolani’s second biggest supporter, Turkey, however, nobody knows when this carefully constructed façade of a reformed terrorist is going to crack and backfire on all involved actors. Some believe that day might be right around the corner.

“The sudden regime change in Syria is a short-lived victory. How this all plays out moving forward is almost impossible to say, other than it looks like there will be considerable chaos in Syria for the foreseeable future,” said John Mearsheimer, a renowned political science professor and theorist before condemning Western media for whitewashing HTS’s leader. “These journalists understand full well, most Americans understand… that the US is supporting terrorists.”

 

 

Turkey violated Doha agreement on Syria

The Turkish Foreign Minister has claimed that Turkey successfully persuaded Iran and Russia not to intervene militarily during the Syrian rebels' offensive which led to the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad's government in the early hours of December 08. 2024.

The information obtained by the Tehran Times suggests that this assertion contradicts the terms agreed upon in Doha on December 07 between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

In a recent interview with Turkey’s NTV, Hakan Fidan stated, "The most important thing we had to do was to talk to the Russians and Iranians to ensure they would not enter the (Syria) equation with military force. We spoke with the Russians and Iranians, and they understood the issue."

The information obtained by the Tehran Times shows the December 07 summit under the Astana platform saw Turkey agree to a framework enabling direct negotiations between the Syrian President and rebel forces, with Assad remaining in power.

“It was agreed that the Syrian conflict would be resolved through political means, with both the Assad government and the armed opposition entering into dialogue,” a source involved in the Doha talks told the Tehran Times.

“The agreement was signed by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Yet, developments on the ground in Syria on Sunday, December 09, show that Turkey did not adhere to what it had signed.”

Armed factions led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels launched a surprise attack against Syria’s northwestern Aleppo Province on November 27. The militants quickly advanced towards Damascus in the face of the Syrian army’s refusal to resist. 

Reports and evidence show the HTS and its allied factions have been receiving substantial financial and military support from Turkey, the United States, and Israel.

 

HTS: The B team of United States and Israel

The clandestine ties between Israel and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that took over Damascus last Sunday are coming under close scrutiny. It is our humble request to all the Muslims that they should try to understand the dirty drama being staged by United States with the connivance of Israel.

The HTS is originally an offshoot of ISIL, also known as ISIS and Daesh in Arabic, and al-Qaeda. It was previously referred to as the Nusra Front, underwent a rebranding in 2017 to alter public perception regarding its past actions.

Israel’s support for ISIL and al-Qaeda terrorists who fought against the Syrian government after the 2011 Arab Spring. Soon after the rebels seized the Syrian capital, Israel began a widespread bombing campaign pounding the country’s military facilities. The Israeli strikes were aimed at destroying Syria’s military capabilities amid fears that they could potentially be used against the regime. 

Israel also violated the 1974 agreement with Syria and deployed its ground troops into the Syrian territory.  The Israeli military has seized control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights in Syria that was created as part of the accord. Its forces have occupied some regions inside Syria beyond the zone.

The most striking is that HTS has kept mum about the Israeli airstrikes and ground incursion into Syria for several days. 

On Friday, Syria’s transitional government that operates under the supervision of HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – formerly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, condemned Israel’s aggression against Syria. 

In a letter to the United Nations, the new transitional government described Israel’s land grab in Syria as a serious violation of the1974 armistice agreement. 

The letter also rebuked Israel for conducting air raids across Syria. 

"The Syrian Arab Republic condemns in the strongest terms this Israeli aggression," it said. 

Syria’s current rulers have been under fire over their inaction in the face of Israel’s acts of aggression. 

The statement's issuance aims to redirect attention from the rebels' inaction regarding Israel's appropriation of land and its airstrikes in Syria.

HTS members, many of whom are former members of Al-Qaeda and ISIL, received support from Israel in the wake of the civil war in Syria that followed the Arab Spring. 

Israeli media disclosed in 2014 that the Israeli military not only offered medical assistance to terrorists fighting in Syria but also maintained connections with them. 

UN observers in the Golan Heights meticulously detailed instances of contact between Israeli troops and rebels, including Syrians being sent into Israel for medical treatment, and the transfer of items and containers, the Times of Israel reported in December 214, citing records maintained by the UN disengagement force in the Golan demilitarized zone.

The rebels are currently attempting to obscure their connections with Israel under the guise of a new name, as they anticipate an increase in anti-regime sentiment due to its aggressive actions in Syria.

 

A prospective US war with Iran is pending

United States interference, at the behest of Netanyahu’s far-right Israel, has left the Middle East in ruins, with over a million dead and open wars raging in Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine, and with Iran on the brink of a nuclear arsenal.

The story is simple, in stark violation of international law, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers claim the right to rule over seven million Palestinians. When Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands leads to militant resistance, Israel labels the resistance “terrorism” and calls on the US to overthrow the Middle East governments that back the “terrorists.” The US, under the sway of the Israel Lobby, goes to war on Israel’s behalf.

The fall of Syria this past week is the culmination of the US-Israel campaign against Syria that goes back to 1996 with Netanyahu’s arrival to office as Prime Minister. The US-Israel war on Syria escalated in 2011 and 2012, when Barack Obama covertly tasked the CIA with the overthrow of the Syrian Government in Operation Timber Sycamore. That effort finally came to “fruition” this week, after more than 300,000 deaths in the Syrian war since 2011.

Syria’s fall came swiftly because of more than a decade of crushing economic sanctions, the burdens of war, the US seizure of Syria’s oil, Russia’s priorities regarding the conflict in Ukraine, and most immediately, Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, which was the key military backstop to the Syrian Government. No doubt Assad often misplayed his own hand and faced severe internal discontent, but his regime was targeted for collapse for decades by the US and Israel.

Since 2011, the US-Israel perpetual war on Syria, including bombing, jihadists, economic sanctions, US seizure of Syria’s oil fields, and more, has sunk the Syrian people into misery.

In the immediate two days following the collapse of the government, Israel conducted about 480 strikes across Syria, and completely destroyed the Syrian fleet in Latakia. Pursuing his expansionist agenda, Prime Minister Netanyahu illegally claimed control over the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights and declared that the Golan Heights will be a part of the State of Israel “for eternity.”

Netanyahu’s ambition to transform the region through war, which dates back almost three decades, is playing out in front of our eyes. In a press conference on December 09, 2024 the Israeli prime minister boasted of an “absolute victory,” justifying the on-going genocide in Gaza and escalating violence throughout the region.

The long history of Israel’s campaign to overthrow the Syrian Government is not widely understood, yet the documentary record is clear. Israel’s war on Syria began with US and Israeli neoconservatives in 1996, who fashioned a “Clean Break” strategy for the Middle East for Netanyahu as he came to office.

The core of the “clean break” strategy called for the Israel (and the US) to reject “land for peace,” the idea that Israel would withdraw from the occupied Palestinian lands in return for peace. Instead, Israel would retain the occupied Palestinian lands, rule over the Palestinian people in an Apartheid state, step-by-step ethnically cleanse the state, and enforce so-called “peace for peace” by overthrowing neighboring governments that resisted Israel’s land claims.

The Clean Break strategy asserts, “Our claim to the land—to which we have clung for hope for 2000 years—is legitimate and noble,” and goes on to state, “Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which the US can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon…”

In his 1996 book Fighting Terrorism, Netanyahu set out the new strategy. Israel would not fight the terrorists; it would fight the states that support the terrorists. More accurately, it would get the US to do Israel’s fighting for it.

 

As he elaborated in 2001, the first and most crucial thing to understand is this: There is no international terrorism without the support of sovereign states.… Take away all this state support, and the entire scaffolding of international terrorism will collapse into dust.

Netanyahu’s strategy was integrated into US foreign policy. Taking out Syria was always a key part of the plan. This was confirmed to General Wesley Clark after 9/11.

He was told, during a visit at the Pentagon, that “we’re going to attack and destroy the governments in seven countries in five years—we’re going to start with Iraq, and then we’re going to move to Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.”

Iraq would be first, then Syria, and the rest. (Netanyahu’s campaign for the Iraq War is spelled out in detail in Dennis Fritz’s new book, Deadly Betrayal. The role of the Israel Lobby is spelled out in Ilan Pappé’s new book, Lobbying for Zionism on Both Sides of the Atlantic). The insurgency that hit US troops in Iraq set back the five-year timeline, but did not change the basic strategy.

The US has by now led or sponsored wars against Iraq (invasion in 2003), Lebanon (US funding and arming Israel), Libya (NATO bombing in 2011), Syria (CIA operation during 2010’s), Sudan (supporting rebels to break Sudan apart in 2011), and Somalia (backing Ethiopia’s invasion in 2006).

A prospective US war with Iran, ardently sought by Israel, is still pending.

Syria to face Libya or Sudan like situation

In a commentary published on December 09, 2024, a Middle East security expert at Princeton University says once the Syrian opposition gets rid of their common enemy and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be. Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Following is the text of the article:

The Baathist system in Syria, after nearly 60 years of rule, has been overthrown and Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow. Syria stood alongside Iran during its invasion by Saddam Hussein, and Iran, in turn, stood with the Syrian and Iraqi governments during the assault by the Islamic State (IS) group and al-Qaeda on Syria and Iraq from 2011 to 2017.

The alliance of Russia, Iran and the Axis of Resistance led to the defeat of militant groups and the preservation of the sovereignty of these two Arab countries. However, at the same time, Assad's government had no alignment with democracy, and western and Arab leaders were fearful and angry about the extensive presence and influence of Iran and Russia in Syria. In any case, the overthrow of the Syrian political system has created a major shift in the region's geopolitics.

In the short term, Iran, Russia, Iraq and the Axis of Resistance will be the main losers from Assad's downfall. The collapse of the Assad government will be a major blow to the axis, weakening Iran's geopolitical influence in the region.

Syria has been the only land route for the supply and transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, and cutting off this route not only creates a strategic challenge for Hezbollah but also weakens Iran's leverage in the Palestinian issue. Moreover, the potential spread of insecurity to Iraq and Iran - and the weakening of Iran's diplomatic support - are significant consequences for Iran and the axis.

Turkey main winner

The fall of the Syrian government could also pose threats to Iraq's security, both in terms of the Kurdish region and from the aspirations of extremist groups for Sunni-majority areas in the country, as well as the potential activation of IS sleeper cells.

In the short term, Israel might find an opportunity to further weaken Hezbollah and the axis in the entire region. However, the activities of new Islamist armed groups at its borders, the rise of Islamist movements and the potential impact on Syria's future stance on the Palestinian issue and the occupied Golan Heights could increase long-term national security threats for Israel.

In the short term, the US and the West will be winners because the fall of Assad will significantly reduce Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

However, the Islamist group that seized Damascus and toppled Assad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was proscribed as a terror organization by the Britain in 2017 and the US in 2018 because of its links to al-Qaeda. HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa), who was designated a terrorist by the US in 2013.

It is uncertain how the collapse of Syria's secular government and the rise of Islamists will impact the long-term interests of the US, with the differing perspectives between the US and Turkey on the Kurdish issue, the ambiguity surrounding the future actions of the opposition and the prospect of increasing instability in the region.

Turkey is the main winner. Ankara may hope to resolve the Syrian refugee crisis in Turkey, exert more effective control over the Kurds and strengthen its role in the Palestinian issue, as well as cement alliances with like-minded groups in the region.

While Arab countries are also pleased with the reduction of Iran's influence in Syria, the military operations of HTS and other militant groups were managed and organied by Turkey, all of which have an affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Several Arab countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, are opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideology. Therefore, Turkey's power projection in the region and the Brotherhood's potential future dominance in Syria could be perceived as a new threat by some Arab countries.

Regarding the political future of Syria, two scenarios can be imagined: a peaceful transition to a new system; or a Libyan and Sudanese-style outcome.

A peaceful transition could be achieved if the opposition continues with its moderate rhetoric and actions. However, it is composed of diverse and fragmented groups that have united solely to eliminate a common enemy.

Once this shared enemy is removed and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be.

Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey's stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Another important factor is the conflicting interests of the many external actors, who will each try to increase their influence over Syria's situation in various ways.

In any scenario, future developments in Syria will have a significant impact on the region's geopolitics. Therefore, finding a solution that is acceptable to both regional and global powers is crucial.

In April 2017, at the Carnegie Conference in Washington, I proposed 10 principles for resolving the Syrian crisis: 1) Resolving the Syrian crisis through diplomacy, not war; 2) A face-saving solution for all the main parties involved;  3) Serious and collective cooperation to eradicate terrorism from Syria; 4) Preserving Syria's territorial integrity and sovereignty; 5) Preventing the collapse of the Syrian army and security institutions; 6) Forming an inclusive government in Syria; 7) Building a new Syria based on the will and vote of the majority of the Syrian nation; 8) Ensuring the protection of minorities in Syria; 9) Holding free elections under the supervision of the United Nations regarding the new government and constitution of Syria; 10) A comprehensive package of economic aid for Syria's reconstruction, the return of refugees, and other humanitarian issues.

Although there was no receptive ear for these ideas at that time, today, these 10 principles could still be a comprehensive and sustainable package to resolve the Syrian crisis.

Courtesy: Tehran Times