Iran to lose oil sales to Syria

According to Argus, the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from power over the weekend has not only dealt a major blow to Iran and its designs for the Levant region, but it has also eliminated a critically important outlet for Tehran's sanctions-hit oil. Iran produced around 3.33 million bpd during September-November.

Long considered Iran's top Arab ally, Assad enjoyed significant military and economic support from Tehran over the past decade, as Iran saw him as the focal point for its regional influence. Syria also provided the main supply routes to Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, the crown jewel in Iran's so-called ‘Axis of Resistance'.

Part of Iran's assistance was in the form of shipments of crude and refined oil products to help Assad's regime meet fuel demand in the areas under its control.

Once more than a 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) producer, Syria's crude output has been on the decline over the past three decades. Just before the start of the civil war in 2011, production had already slipped below 400,000 bpd. lately, it was less than 100,000 bpd, and only around 16,000 bpd of that comes from fields in areas under the former government's control.

This left Assad's regime — itself restricted by western sanctions — critically short of crude to feed its two refineries in Banias and Homs, even though both have been operating below capacity because of damage sustained during the civil war.

Iran helped plug the gap by sending crude and products to the 140,000 bpd Banias refinery on Syria's Mediterranean coast on an ad hoc basis.

Iranian crude exports to Syria averaged around 55,000 bpd in January-November this year, down from 80,000 bpd in 2023 and 72,000 bpd in 2022, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler.

Vortexa puts shipments higher at 60,000 to 70,000 bpd so far this year and 90,000 bpd in 2023. Iran has also been sending around 10,000 to 20,000 bpd of refined products to Syria in recent years, according to consultancy FGE. Iran's oil exports to Syria have mostly been in the form of grants to support the Assad regime. The government's collapse could put an end to these flows for the time being, while Tehran takes a wait and see approach to what comes next in Syria.

The first sign of that came over the weekend when the Iran-flagged Lotus, which left Kharg Island on November 11, destined for Banias, reversed course just as it was about to enter the Suez Canal. The tanker is now headed back through the Red Sea without specifying a destination.

Although supplies to Syria make up a very small share of Iran's overall 1.6 million to 1.8 million bpd of crude exports, Tehran may not want to lose it as an outlet for good, given the difficulties of finding a replacement while sanctions remain in place.

"The flow will stop, at least for the time being," said Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at FGE.

Iran will want to continue supplying this oil to Syria, or else it may be forced to cut production by anywhere between 50,000 to 100,000 bpd if it is unable to ultimately place those barrels in China. Alternatively, Iran could opt to build the volumes it holds offshore in floating storage.

"We usually see the same tankers shuttling between Iran and Syria," according to Vortexa's senior oil analyst Armen Azizian. "If that trade subsides, we could see some of these tankers unemployed or put into floating storage, which would rise, at least in the short-term," he said.

Lotus is one of these tankers, having made the trip to Syria and back five times in 2023, and twice so far in 2024. The crude cargo it is carrying now "could be returned to Iran and put into onshore tanks or go into floating storage off Iran," Azizian said.

 

What Ayatollah says on fall of Assad regime?

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei directly addressed thousands of Iranians from different walks of on Wednesday. He spoke on current regional matters, particularly the latest developments in Syria.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government collapsed on Sunday after his army refrained from countering a new terror insurgency that began in the country’s northwestern Aleppo region.

Here are seven questions Ayatollah Khamenei answered on Syria during his Wednesday remarks:

1. Who is behind the latest resurgence of terrorism in Syria?

A neighbor of Syria has been involved. But the main architects have been the US and Israel

2. How did the US and Israel aid terrorists in their offensive?

A joint US and Israeli blockade effectively sealed Syria's land and air borders, preventing the entry of both people and humanitarian aid.

3. Could Syria have foreseen the insurgency that ousted Bashar al-Assad?

Iran's intelligence services warned Syria of the impending attacks months in advance of their execution in late November.

4. What will happen to the Syrian territories recently seized by the US and Israel?

They will eventually be liberated by the courageous youth of Syria.

5. How did the Syrian government collapse?

The Syrian government collapsed because of a lack of resistance from the country’s national army, which prevented volunteer forces from other areas from intervening.

6. Why did Iran maintain a presence in Syria in recent years?

Tehran’s goal was to eliminate Daesh terrorists who were a threat to not only Iran but the entire region. Iran was never supposed to replace the Syrian army.

7. What lessons can be learned from the recent developments in Syria?

One must not be heedless of the enemy. One must not underestimate its enemies either.

 

Israeli attacks on Syrian military installations

Israel has confirmed it carried out attacks on Syria's naval fleet, as part of its efforts to neutralize military assets in the country after the fall of the Assad regime.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said its ships struck the ports at Al-Bayda and Latakia on Monday night, where 15 vessels were docked.

The BBC has verified videos showing blasts at the port of Latakia, with footage appearing to show extensive damage to ships and parts of the port.

The IDF also said its warplanes had conducted more than 350 air strikes on targets across Syria, while moving ground forces into the demilitarized buffer zone between Syria and the occupied Golan Heights.

Earlier, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said it had documented more than 310 strikes by the IDF since the Syrian government was overthrown by rebels on Sunday.

In a statement, Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF was aiming to "destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel".

He added that the operation to destroy the Syrian fleet had been a "great success".

The IDF said a wide range of targets had been struck - including airfields, military vehicles, anti-aircraft weapons and arms production sites - in the Syrian capital, Damascus, as well as Homs, Tartus and Palmyra.

It also targeted weapon warehouses, ammunition depots and "dozens" of sea-to-sea missiles.

It added that it had done so to prevent them "from falling into the hands of extremists".

In a video message, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Syrian rebel group that ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), that Israel would "respond forcefully" if they allow Iran to "re-establish itself in Syria".

He has previously expressed a desire for peaceful ties with the new Syrian government, and cast its interventions as defensive.

Rami Abdul Rahman, the founder of the SOHR, described the impact of the strikes as destroying "all the capabilities of the Syrian army" and said that "Syrian lands are being violated".

Meanwhile, the IDF also confirmed it had troops operating in Syrian territory beyond the buffer zone bordering the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The IDF acknowledged that its troops had entered Syrian territory but told the BBC that reports of tanks approaching Damascus were "false".

It said some troops had been stationed within the Area of Separation that borders the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights "and then a few additional points".

"When we say a few additional points, we're talking the area of the Area of Separation, or the area of the buffer zone in vicinity," IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told the BBC.

BBC Verify has geolocated an image of an IDF soldier standing just over half a kilometer beyond the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, inside Syria on a hillside near the village of Kwdana.

On Monday, the Israeli military released photos of its troops who crossed from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights into the demilitarized buffer zone in Syria where UN peacekeepers are based.

A map showing the locations of Israeli strikes on Syria since 8 December, including Tartous, Masyaf, Qusayr Corssing, Al Mayadin, Mount Qasioun, Damascus and Khalkhala airport.

The IDF seizure of Syrian positions in the buffer zone was a "temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found", Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday.

"If we can establish neighbourly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire. But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel," he said on Monday.

Turkey’s foreign ministry condemned Israel's entry into the buffer zone, accusing it of an "occupying mentality" during a "sensitive period, when the possibility of achieving the peace and stability the Syrian people have desired for many years has emerged".

This buffer zone, also known as the Area of Separation was set up as part of Israel's ceasefire agreement with Syria in 1974 to keep Israeli and Syrian forces separated, following Israel's earlier occupation of the Golan Heights.

Israel unilaterally annexed the Golan in 1981. The move was not recognized internationally, although the US did so unilaterally in 2019.

A map shows the location of the Golan Heights, between Israel and Syria. A lighter shaded area along the right-hand border of it shows the area of separation.

Asked about the IDF strikes on Monday night, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel was concerned only with defending its citizens.

"That's why we attack strategic weapons systems like, for example, remaining chemical weapons or long-range missiles and rockets in order that they will not fall into the hands of extremists," he said.

On Monday, the UN's chemical watchdog warns authorities in Syria to ensure that suspected stockpiles of chemical weapons are safe.

It is not known where or how many chemical weapons Syria has, but it's believed former President Assad kept stockpiles.

Israel's attacks come after Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital, Damascus, as Assad fled the country, reportedly for Russia. He, and before him his father, had been in power in the country since 1971.

Forces led by the Islamist opposition group HTS entered Damascus in the early hours of Sunday, before appearing on state television to declare that Syria was now "free".

 

Al-Golani: Today's reflection of veni; vidi; vici,

History shows that the United States loves to create and then demolish the phantoms. There is a long list but the most recent creation is a big mystery. Abu Mohammed al-Golani is a perfect reflection of the phrase "Veni; vidi; vici" attributed to Julius Caesar. The sentence, which translates as "I came; I saw; I conquered," is a well-known quote from Ancient Rome.

The insurgency that brought down Assad this past weekend was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which many Western governments have designated a terrorist group. The head of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has a long history of militancy. After joining al-Qaida, he participated in the fight against US forces that invaded Iraq in 2003. He moved to Lebanon in 2006, where he supervised training for fighters for Jund al-Sham, a Salafist jihadi organization. He then returned to Iraq in 2008 to fight for the Islamic State group. The US Army briefly arrested him, and following his release, he moved to Syria after the 2011 uprising against Assad. He established the transnational jihadi al-Nusra Front, focusing on Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon.

After Assad regained control of Aleppo in late 2016, al-Golani changed the name of the group to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. He settled in the province of Idlib and established the Syrian Salvation Government, abandoning the doctrine of transnational jihad to focus on Syria instead. He declared that his goal had shifted to eliminating the Assad regime and establishing Islamic rule in Syria, saying that his membership in al-Qaida and association with the Islamic State group were a thing of the past. He consolidated his authoritarian control over Idlib and marginalized other opposition groups, both religious and secular.

 

 

Cosco to fund QatarEnergy LNG carriers

The company has approved is wholly-owned subsidiary, Cosco Shipping LNG Investment (Shanghai) to jointly invested in the second phase project of Qatar Energy, which will purchase 50% stakes of six singe-vessel companies established by Japanese owner MOL to build six QC-Max LNG carriers together.  

The QC-Max vessels, which will be built at China's Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard, are the largest LNG vessels ever built with a capacity of 271,000 cu meters each. 

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation said that with enhanced fuel efficiency and reduced emissions, the vessels are engineered to meet the highest safety and environmental standards, representing a significant advancement in sustainable innovation.

Meeting the long-term transportation demands of Qatar Energy, the six LNG carrier’s investment will further improve the company’s profitability, the company commented.

Courtesy: Seatrade Maritime News

Syrian Interim Leader

Syria's new interim leader announced on Tuesday he was taking charge of the country as caretaker prime minister with the backing of the former rebels who toppled President Bashar al-Assad three days ago.

In a brief address on state television, Mohammed al-Bashir, a figure little known across most of Syria who previously ran an administration in a pocket of the northwest controlled by rebels, said he would lead the interim authority until March 01, 2025.

"Today we held a cabinet meeting that included a team from the Salvation government that was working in Idlib and its vicinity, and the government of the ousted regime," he said.

"The meeting was under the headline of transferring the files and institutions to caretake the government."

Bashir ran the rebel-led Salvation Government before the 12-day lightning rebel offensive swept into Damascus.

Behind him were two flags - the green, black and white flag flown by opponents of Assad throughout the civil war, and a white flag with the Islamic oath of faith in black writing, typically flown in Syria by Sunni Islamist fighters.

In the Syrian capital, banks reopened for the first time since Assad's overthrow. Shops also opened again, traffic returned to the roads, cleaners were out sweeping the streets and there were fewer armed men about.

Two sources close to the rebels said their command had ordered fighters to withdraw from cities, and for police and internal security forces affiliated with the main rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) to deploy there.

HTS is a former al Qaeda affiliate that led the anti-Assad revolt and has lately downplayed its jihadist roots.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington fully supports Syria's political transition process and wants it to lead to inclusive and non-sectarian governance.

US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer told Reuters Washington was still working out how it will engage with the rebel groups and added that as yet there had been no formal change of policy and that actions were what counted.

Finer said US troops in northeastern Syria as part of a counter-terrorism mission would be staying there, and the top US general responsible for the Middle East visited them on Tuesday, as well as US-backed Kurdish Syrian forces (SDF).

Israel launches heavy airstrikes on Syria

Israel unleashed a massive wave of airstrikes on Syrian military sites on Tuesday, targeting weapons and installations to prevent them from falling into hostile hands following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. These strikes were among the most intense in the history of Israel’s operations in Syria, leaving significant damage across the country.

Syrian security officers and regional sources reported that Israeli strikes hit military bases, airfields, and Republican Guard assets, decimating dozens of helicopters, jets, and other military equipment. In Damascus, the Barzeh defense ministry research center—previously targeted by Western forces in 2018 for its alleged role in chemical weapons production—was reportedly destroyed.

The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has conducted over 300 airstrikes in Syria since the regime’s fall. Monday night, the Israeli Navy launched operations to destroy the former regime’s naval fleet, including vessels armed with sea-to-sea missiles at the Minet el-Beida bay and Latakia port.

“Israel is acting to ensure that advanced weapons and strategic assets do not fall into the hands of hostile forces amid the ongoing chaos in Syria,” said an IDF spokesperson.

After seizing control of the 1974 buffer zone in the Golan Heights, Israel denied reports of advancing beyond the zone or nearing Damascus. “IDF troops are present inside the buffer zone and at defensive positions close to the border to protect the Israeli border,” said Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman.

Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia condemned Israel’s seizure of the buffer zone, with Saudi Arabia warning that it could destabilize Syria further. UN special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen called on Israel to cease its operations, labeling the situation “extremely important” for regional stability.

Israel has consistently stated that it has no intention of intervening in Syria’s internal conflict and that its actions are defensive. “Limited and temporary measures” have been taken to protect Israel’s security, officials told the UN Security Council.

As the situation in Syria remains volatile, Israel has vowed to continue its strikes to neutralize threats while maintaining its defensive stance along the border.