Media hype to jack up oil price

We are of the view that western media plays a role in keeping oil prices high to facilitate the fund managers to make quick buck. Media uses expressions like “fall in US strategic reserves”, “turmoil in Middle East and North Africa”, “imposition of sanctions on Russia”, “turmoil in Nigeria”, “Houthis attack oil tanker” and the latest is “oil fields shutdown in Libya”.

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after rebounding more than 7% over the previous three sessions on supply concerns prompted by fears of widening Middle East conflict and a potential shutdown of most of Libya's oil fields.

After the jump in oil prices on the back of geopolitical risk in the Middle East and a production halt in Libya, market participants are now holding back to assess further developments.

The 7% rise in Brent and 7.6% rise in WTI in the previous three sessions bucked a broader downtrend since hitting its 2024 peak of US$91.17 in April. The downturn was driven by concern over global crude demand, particularly from China and through the summer, which is typically a peak demand period.

On Monday, authorities in the Libya's east, where most of its oilfields are located threatened to halting production and exports, after a flare-up in tensions over leadership of the country's central bank. Those fields are responsible for almost all the country's 1.17 million barrels per day of crude output.

The jump in Brent has primarily been driven by short-term supply worries at the same time the weak demand outlook, especially for diesel, has driven down refinery margins across the world, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

"It highlights an oil market that, without a prolonged Libyan supply disruption, may struggle to move much higher, with the mid-80s potentially providing a ceiling for now," Hansen added.

There was no confirmation from the internationally recognized government in Tripoli or from National Oil Corp (NOC), which controls the country's oil resources.

Oil has also been supported by an escalation in conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, with a major exchange of missiles after the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month.

"Markets remain on edge as skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah intensify," ANZ analysts said in a note

A top US general said on Monday that the danger of a broader war had eased somewhat but that an Iran strike on Israel remained a risk.

Hezbollah Hybrid War Capabilities

Lebanon’s Hezbollah has kept Israel on its toes since launching a barrage of missiles and drones that targeted multiple sites including a major military intelligence base near Tel Aviv at the weekend.

Reports suggest that the Hezbollah attack dubbed Arbaeen Operation caused significant damage in Israel. The Benjamin Netanyahu regime has been accused of trying to sweep the losses and casualties under the rug.

Hezbollah fired more than 300 Katyusha rockets and a large number of drones at Israel on Sunday morning. That was an initial response to the Israeli assassination of its senior military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30.

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on Sunday evening that the main focus of the attack was the Glilot base north of Tel Aviv around 100 kilometers from Lebanon’s border. The facility is home to the Mossad intelligence service and the military intelligence group Unit 8200.

Nasrallah stressed that the attack struck deep into Israel in contrast to the resistance movement’s previous attacks, which largely hit northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights.

The Arbaeen Operation dealt a devastating and crushing blow to Israel’s security and intelligence systems.

This is because Israel had been on high alert since killing Shukr and awaiting a retaliatory attack from Hezbollah. But despite taking advantage of Western satellite technology, the Netanyahu regime failed to deter the Hezbollah strike.  

Facts on the ground indicate that the Arbaeen Operation substantially eroded Israel’s deterrent power and widened gaps within the Israeli establishment which is still reeling from the shock of a surprise military operation (Al-Aqsa Storm) carried out by Hamas on October 07.

The Al-Aqsa Storm highlighted Israel’s military and intelligence failures and the Arbaeen Operation reminded the regime that it will have to brace for more tremendous shocks, this is just the tip of the iceberg. 

Israeli media have confirmed that an Israeli soldier was killed and two others were wounded on a Dvora-class patrol boat off the northern coast of occupied Palestine near Nahariya.

However, Israel claims they were hit by shrapnel from an Iron Dome interceptor missile as the regime tries to downplay the Hezbollah attack. 

Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire since the day after the start of the Gaza war on October 07. 

Over the past months, Israel has threatened to launch an all-out war against Hezbollah if it does not stop strikes against the regime. 

Hezbollah has stressed that it will not stop its attacks as long as the Netanyahu regime continues the Gaza war which has so far claimed the lives of about 40,500 Palestinians. 

Although, Hezbollah did not use its strategic weapons during the Arbaeen Operation, Israel suffered a painful blow. 

Hence, in case of a full-blown conflict, the regime would have to wait for an apocalyptic scenario. 

Presently, Hezbollah is not only capable of hitting Israeli military sites on the ground but also its vessels which shows the Lebanese movement’s capability to wage a hybrid war against the regime. 

Israel failed to continue the 2006 war against Hezbollah for more than 34 days. The resistance movement’s military capabilities are currently incomparable with that year. 

Hezbollah is underpinned by its sophisticated arsenal and has increased its stockpile of missiles from 14,000 in 2006 to about 150,000. The movement has also developed precision-guided missiles and its drone programs. 

The number of Hezbollah fighters who are ready to join a possible war against Israel has exceeded 100,000, according to the Hezbollah secretary general. 

Israel is well aware of the military capabilities of Hezbollah. As a result, it only threatens the movement with a direct war as part of its psychological warfare. 
 

 

US supporting Israel in genocide in Gaza

It has been reiterated that Israel is busy in genocide in Gaza and killed over 40,000 people, mostly children and women since October 07, 2023. United States, instead of stopping unabated killing, has been supplying tons of lethal weapons to Israel. Now it is bringing in warships in the Middle East to protect Israel. It looks completely meaningless that US wants truce without asking Israel to stop the genocide.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered two American carrier strike groups to remain in the Middle East on Sunday after intense cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah overnight.

The decision was detailed in a Pentagon readout of Austin's call with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant.

During the conversation, Austin discussed "Israeli actions to defend against attacks by Lebanese Hezbollah" and reiterated Israel’s right to defend itself.

He also emphasized the United States' "ironclad resolve" to support Israel’s defense against threats from Iran and its regional partners and proxies, according to Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder.

"As part of that support, the Secretary has ordered the presence of two Carrier Strike Groups to remain in the region.

The Secretary also expressed support for completing negotiations on a cease-fire and hostage-release deal," Ryder said in a statement. He used a variant spelling for "Hezbollah."

The US had previously acknowledged the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Groups to the region.

As reported by Reuters, on Sunday, Lebanese Hezbollah announced that it had launched hundreds of rockets and drones deep into Israel overnight Saturday as part of the “first phase” of its response to Tel Aviv's assassination of senior commander Fouad Shukr late last month.

This announcement came shortly after the Israeli army carried out large-scale airstrikes in southern Lebanon, claiming the strikes were aimed at preventing Hezbollah from launching an attack.

 

Uncertainties plague oil market

According to the Seatrade Maritime News, energy analysts point to a range of uncertainties that could influence oil demand, supply and price in the months ahead.

Unexpectedly weak oil demand in China so far this year is one of the factors that OPEC Plus members will be considering when they meet at the next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee at the beginning of October.

But there are a number of other factors which could affect their decision on whether or not to ease the 2.2 million barrels a day (bpd) of production cuts that are currently in place.

These cuts were originally agreed in 2020 when COVID struck and oil demand fell sharply. These were steadily eased as the pandemic passed but restrictions on output were introduced again in April 2023, which will be the subject of discussion at the October meeting.

Softer Chinese demand is mirrored elsewhere as geopolitical tensions and slower growth affect many regions. Global oil demand growth has slowed down over recent quarters even as some OPEC Plus members, notably Russia, exceed OPEC Plus output quotas.

Shipbroker Gibson notes that OPEC Plus recently cut oil demand growth expectations to 2.11 million bpd this year, but so far this increase has not materialized.

Further downward revisions to projections may be required and the issue casts doubt on the cartel’s forecast of a 1.78 million bpd demand increase in 2025.

The broker notes that the International Energy Agency has a more moderate demand growth forecast of 0.95 million bpd for next year.

Meanwhile, Poten notes that more non-OPEC production has come on stream since the pandemic, with the United States, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil increasing output and eating into OPEC’s share.

More non-OPEC crude will hit the market in 2025, as the International Energy Agency forecasts that supply is likely to rise by 1.75 million bpd, significantly more than likely demand growth of 1.0 million bpd.

Owners of smaller tankers will be closely watching developments in these non-OPEC countries where output is rising.

For VLCC owners, what happens in China is the most important factor because of the long-haul nature of the trade.

But the strategy that OPEC Plus members adopt at the October meeting is a key factor too.

If the cartel members decide to ease the present production restrictions, the process will take place gradually over time.

Poten observed, “If they start to roll back their production cuts, it will be very slow and in small increments, so as not to flood the market and undermine oil prices.”

Airlines cancel flights to Israel

Ten foreign airlines canceled their flights to Israel on Sunday amid escalating cross-border tensions with the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

According to Israeli public broadcaster KAN, major carriers, including Air France and the Dutch airline Transavia, have suspended their operations in Israel.

Other airlines that canceled flights include Hungary's Wizz Air, Malta-based Corendon, Ethiopian Airlines, and Greece's Aegean Airlines and Universal Airlines.

Air France, which canceled its flights between Paris and Tel Aviv, was one of the few major international airlines operating in Israel until now.

Since late July, 20 international airlines have canceled their flights to Israel, driven by growing concerns over a potential regional war in the Middle East.

On Sunday, Israeli warplanes launched over 40 airstrikes on southern Lebanon, marking the most severe attack since cross-border clashes with Hezbollah began on October 08, 2023. The Israeli army stated that the strikes aimed to prevent an impending Hezbollah attack.

In response, Hezbollah claimed it had launched hundreds of missiles and drones deep into Israel as part of the "first phase" of its retaliation for last month’s assassination of its commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut.

Since October 08, 2023, Hezbollah has engaged in daily exchanges of fire with the Israeli army across the Lebanese-Israeli border, resulting in hundreds of casualties, mostly on the Lebanese side.

Kamala Harris and her heap of lies

All week long, the US citizens watched as the true base of the Democratic Party – billionaires, celebrities, national security figureheads and moderate Republicans – repeatedly assured us that Kamala Harris will be a different kind of president. A president of “joy.” But many found little room for joy in her speech Thursday night.

Instead, it revealed a great deal about what we can expect if Kamala becomes president – and none of it is good.

In a speech that could have easily been delivered by Joe Biden himself, Kamala promised to:

Sign Biden’s inhumane, militarized “bipartisan border bill” with 80% of the funding allocated to hardening border security and doubling the number of border patrol agents.

“Ensure America always has the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world” with unchecked resources for the Pentagon to continue waging “wars around the world”.

Unconditionally supply Israel with endless weapons, as she repeated Israel’s discredited propaganda around the October 07 attacks and pointedly ignored the widespread reports of Israeli soldiers using sexual violence, physical and psychological torture against illegally incarcerated Palestinian prisoners.

Kamala absurdly claimed that she and Biden are “working around the clock” to secure a ceasefire for Gaza – even as they’ve authorized another US$23 billion in arms for Israel in August alone.

Now we learn that the Joe-Kamala administration has appointed Mira Resnick, perhaps the most hands-on State Department official involved in speed-running weapons to Israel since October 07, to replace Andrew Miller – the 1st official to resign in protest over Gaza.

Kamala’s heap of lies delivered on Thursday night firmly established that nothing will fundamentally change.

Kamala made it clear that she intends to continue this reckless path of capitalistic exploitation and global militarism, even fanning the flames with China and Iran as tens of thousands of the party faithful waved signs and shouted “USA! USA!”

The world finds no joy in any of this.

There are material conditions that must be urgently addressed for this country to meet the basic needs of its citizens and take the citizens off this death march into World War III and climate collapse. None of those policy solutions were present in her speech.

Instead citizens were promised more of the same. And much like Biden before her, that may prove to be the one promise that Kamala Harris keeps.

Kamala has shown her true colors, and we have a prudent choice to make this November.

There has to be a campaign to the White House this November that could set the US citizens on a radically different course – one that ends the genocide in Gaza and implement an immediate arms embargo on Israel.

There has to be a campaign with the credibility to address the climate emergency with the urgency it demands. There has to be a campaign with a radically transformative economic vision that will lift millions out of poverty and build a society free of injustice, inequity, hunger, and want.

There has to be a campaign that could challenge the empire both at home and abroad. In just over two months, Americans will have to make their voice heard at the ballot box.

 

Global leaders congratulate Abbas Araqchi

Several prominent international figures, including the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, as well as the foreign ministers of Germany and Iraq, have extended their congratulations to Abbas Araqchi on his appointment as Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Araqchi, known for his previous role as a nuclear negotiator, was appointed by President Masoud Pezeshkian and successfully secured a vote of confidence from the Iranian parliament, receiving 247 out of 288 votes.

In a phone call on Thursday, Borrell conveyed his congratulations to Araqchi, expressing optimism that political discussions and consultations between Iran and the European Union would not only continue but also expand under Iran's new government. 

The two officials also discussed ongoing negotiations aimed at lifting international sanctions against Iran and addressed recent developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly the situation in Gaza.

Araqchi announced Iran's willingness to manage tensions with the United States and restore relations with European nations, contingent upon these countries ceasing what he described as hostile actions against the Islamic Republic. 

He emphasized that a key priority for the new administration would be the removal of sanctions, which would help normalize Iran's trade relations globally. 

Araqchi reiterated that reviving the 2015 nuclear deal remains a central objective, provided that Western nations show a willingness to engage constructively.

The signing of the 2015 nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with six world powers showcased Iran's commitment to demonstrating the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. However, the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA in May 2018 and the subsequent re-imposition of sanctions against Tehran have cast uncertainty over the future of the agreement.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also congratulated Araqchi, expressing hope that Germany and Iran could deepen their bilateral relations by overcoming existing challenges. 

During their conversation, Araqchi stressed the importance of mutual respect and focusing on common interests to strengthen ties between the two nations. 

The two diplomats also exchanged views on regional and international issues, emphasizing their shared commitment to resolving current problems through dialogue.

In another diplomatic outreach, Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom David Lammy extended his congratulations to Araqchi on his recent appointment as Iran’s foreign minister. 

During a phone call, Lammy expressed that the formation of Iran’s 14th government presents a fresh opportunity to enhance diplomatic consultations between the United Kingdom and the Islamic Republic of Iran. 

Lammy also addressed the ongoing conflict in Gaza, urging Iran to play a constructive role in de-escalating tensions in the region. He emphasized the importance of dialogue and diplomatic efforts in achieving stability, highlighting the potential for cooperation in easing the humanitarian crisis.

Responding to his British counterpart, Araqchi acknowledged the ups and downs in bilateral relations over the years. He reiterated that while Iran does not seek to widen the conflict or increase tensions, it will not relinquish its right to respond to the "criminal and terrorist actions" of the Zionist regime.

The conversation between the two ministers also covered other areas of mutual interest, including the ongoing negotiations concerning the lifting of sanctions on Iran. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continue these diplomatic consultations, signaling a desire for constructive engagement moving forward.

Franch Foreign Minister, Stéphane Séjourné, also reached out to Araqchi in a separate phone call to offer his congratulations. 

Séjourné conveyed France’s readiness to continue diplomatic consultations with Iran, focusing on both bilateral relations and broader regional and international issues. 

He highlighted the ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at securing a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict, stressing the need for dialogue with all involved parties to reduce tensions and achieve lasting peace.

Araqchi expressed appreciation for the French foreign minister’s congratulations and emphasized the longstanding historical relationship between Iran and France. He reiterated Tehran’s willingness to engage in constructive dialogue to expand cooperation between the two nations.

He urged France and other Western countries to focus on holding the Zionist regime accountable for these actions to prevent further escalation of the conflict.

The phone call between Araqchi and Séjourné also included discussions on other topics of mutual interest, such as consular issues, with both ministers agreeing on the importance of continued dialogue to address these concerns.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Mohammed Hussein was among the other leaders who reached out to congratulate Araqchi. 

He expressed hope that Iran and Iraq would continue their close cooperation on bilateral, regional, and international issues. 

Hussein also conveyed an invitation from Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani to President Pezeshkian to visit Iraq. 

Araqchi, in turn, highlighted the new Iranian government's commitment to deepening relations with its neighboring countries, particularly Iraq.

Araqchi received congratulations from Ararat Mirzoyan, the Armenian Foreign Minister, who expressed his country’s commitment to expanding relations with Iran. 

The two officials discussed issues related to the agenda of bilateral relations between Armenia and Iran, emphasizing the readiness of both sides to make continuous efforts towards further strengthening of friendly ties and strong partnership in areas of mutual interest. Reference was made to upcoming programs.

They also discussed the importance of supporting Armenia’s territorial integrity and the ongoing regional developments. 

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib offered his congratulations, expressing hope for continued cooperation between Iran and Lebanon, especially in resisting Israeli aggression.

In response, Iranian foreign minister thanked Bou Habib for his congratulations and emphasized his desire for fruitful collaboration to advance the interests of both the Lebanese and Iranian people, as well as the broader region. 

Araqchi confirmed his intention to visit Lebanon soon and expressed eagerness to host the Lebanese Foreign Minister in Tehran at the earliest opportunity.

Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad joined in the congratulations, reaffirming Syria's dedication to strengthening strategic relations with Iran. 

Both Araqchi and Mekdad emphasized the importance of ongoing consultations and coordination between their countries in the face of regional challenges, particularly regarding Israeli actions in the region.

These diplomatic engagements highlight the broad international response to Araqchi’s appointment, reflecting both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead for Iran's foreign policy under his leadership.