Iranian naval ship capsizes during repair

One of Iranian newest warships capsized in port over the weekend while undergoing repairs, an incident that could damage key war-fighting systems and put the ship out of commission for up to half a year, reports Saudi Gazette.

The 311-foot-long was at a dock in the port of Bandar Abbas when it “lost its balance” after water leaked into its tanks, according to a report from the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

A photo from the semi-official Tasnim News Agency showed the warship, with a displacement of about 2,000 tons, resting on its left side in the Bandar Abbas port.

The ship, which Tasnim said entered service in December 2018, is one of the bigger vessels in Iran’s fleet, equipped with antiship cruise missiles and an electronic warfare system.

Naval analyst Carl Schuster, a former US Navy captain, said it would take Iran four to six months to repair the ship once it can be refloated.

“Seawater severely damages electronics and gets into everything. So, all electronics will have to be removed and chemically cleaned to remove the salt,” he said.

It also affects mechanical parts, which could lead to engine failure if the parts are not thoroughly cleaned, he added.

“Salt encrustation destroys piston linings and turbine blades and interferes with combustion so if they take short cuts to get that ship back into service, they will pay a heavy price for doing so,” Schuster said.

Ships like the Sahand tend to have a lot of “top hamper,” weight from electronics and weapons above their center of gravity, Schuster said.

If lower fuel tanks are emptied, something prudent during a repair process, the higher up weight should have been removed to keep the ship in balance, he said.

“Otherwise, you risk capsizing the ship, particularly if there are high winds,” he said.

Schuster said the photo released by Tasnim suggests the ship rolled over quickly, rather than sinking and settling on the relatively shallow harbor bottom at Bandar Abbas.

“Its motion (was) stopped only by the mast and stack encountering the harbor bottom,” he said.

Several people sustained minor injuries in the incident and were taken to a hospital, IRNA reported.

The Iranian news agency reports said the warship was “being returned to balance.”

That’s a process likely to take a week or more, according to Schuster, with cranes, floatation bladders and portable pumps needed.

The Sahand is the most recent ship to carry that name for the Iranian navy. The previous Sahand was sunk by the US Navy in 1988 during Operation Praying Mantis, which launched after a US frigate was crippled by an Iranian mine in the Gulf

Lee Sasakawa Peace Foundation Visiting Fellow

The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars has appointed Shin-ae Lee as a Sasakawa Peace Foundation Visiting Fellow for summer 2024. 

Dr. Lee will spend two months as a residential scholar with the Wilson Center’s Indo-Pacific Program from July to August 2024.

Her research will focus on prospects for military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia and its impact on Indo-Pacific security relations.

Dr. Lee is currently a research fellow in the Security Studies Program at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, and also teaches part-time at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies.

Her academic interest centers on Japan’s security policy and relations between Japan, the ROK, and the United States.

 

Iran missile production, is it a hoax call?

According to Reuters, satellite imagery shows major expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities that two American researchers assessed are for boosting missile production.

Reuters reports, the enlargement of the sites follows an October 2022 deal in which Iran agreed to provide missiles to Russia, which has been seeking them for its war against Ukraine. Tehran also supplies missiles to Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, both members of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance against Israel.

Images taken by commercial satellite firm Planet Labs of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April show more than 30 new buildings at the two sites, both of which are located near Tehran.

According to Reuters, these images show many of the structures are surrounded by large dirt berms. Such earthworks are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating highly combustible materials in nearby structures, said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

The expansions began at Khojir in August last year and at Modarres in October, Lewis said, based on images of the sites.

Iran's arsenal is already the largest in the Middle East, estimated at more than 3,000 missiles, including models designed to carry conventional and nuclear warheads, experts say.

Reuters claims that Modarres and Khojir sites are being expanded to boost production of conventional ballistic missiles.

Reuters claims that some of the new buildings would also allow a doubling of drone manufacturing. Drones and missile components would be sold to Russia, drones would be provided to the Houthis and missiles to Hezbollah.

Iran's mission to the United Nations did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the expansion of the complexes. Tehran has previously denied providing drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis.

Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said a boost in Iran's weapons manufacturing would not have any impact in Yemen because the Houthis develop and manufacture aircraft independent of Iran.

Lewis analyzed the Planet Labs imagery with Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think-tank, as part of a Middlebury project that monitors Iranian missile infrastructure.

The two US researchers said in separate interviews that it was not clear from the photos what kinds of missiles would be produced at the new facilities, which still appeared to be under construction.

Any increase in Tehran's missile or drone production would be concerning to the United States, which has said that Iranian drones help sustain Russia's assault on Ukrainian cities, and to Israel as it fends off attacks from Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah.

 

Reuters in February reported that Iran had sent surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Iran denied providing the weapons. Washington said it could not confirm the transfers but it assumed Tehran intended to provide missiles to Moscow.

On November 12, 2011, a massive explosion destroyed a large swath of Shadid Modarres associated with solid fuel missiles, killing 17 IRGC officers. They included Gen. Hassan Moqaddam, regarded by Iran as the "architect" of its ballistic missile program.

Construction at Shahid Modarres, which began again after the 2011 explosion, accelerated last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gaza deepening humanitarian crisis

Hundreds of trucks loaded with food and water have been stranded on a scorching Egyptian road, some for nearly two months, awaiting permission to deliver the much needed humanitarian supplies to war-torn Gaza.

About 50 kilometers from the Gaza border, trucks carrying flour, water and other aid line a dusty road in both directions. The drivers say they have been waiting for several weeks in the searing Egyptian summer heat.

The standstill is exacerbating Gaza's dire humanitarian crisis after nine months of war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas. Aid groups warn there is a high risk of famine across the besieged coastal territory.

The truck drivers, parked on the outskirts of the Egyptian city of al-Arish in the Sinai Peninsula, say they have been unable to deliver humanitarian supplies ever since Israel expanded its offensive on the Gaza-Egypt border in May.

Some food has had to be discarded, they said.

"I swear to God, before this load, we came here and stood for more than 50 days and eventually the load was returned because it had expired," said truck driver Elsayed el-Nabawi.

"We had to turn around and return it. We loaded another batch, and here we are standing again and only God knows if this load will make it before it expires or what will happen to it."

The Israeli military started its assault on the southern Gazan city of Rafah in May. The Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, a lifeline to the outside world for Gazans, allowing the delivery of aid and the evacuation of patients, has been shut since then.

Talks involving Egypt, the United States and Israel have failed to reopen Rafah, where Egypt wants a Palestinian presence restored on the Gazan side of the border. Israeli flags now fly over Gazan buildings destroyed along the border with Egypt.

"We've been stranded here for over a month waiting to deliver this load. We've waiting for our turn but nothing yet" said Ahmed Kamel, another of the truck drivers, who sit by their vehicles drinking tea and smoking cigarettes.

"We don't know our fate - when we will be able to enter? Today? Tomorrow? The day after tomorrow? Only God knows. Will the stuff we're carrying hold up or most of it will go bad?"

Aid and commercial supplies have still entered Gaza through other land border crossings, through air drops and by sea, but aid groups and Western diplomats say the supplies are far below needs. The drivers say they are waiting for Israeli permission.

 

Why a rush to join BRICS?

Last year, BRICS decided to expand its membership, inviting Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join the bloc.

BRICS is attracting Southeast Asian countries, with Thailand and Malaysia being the latest to express their interest in joining the bloc.

Last month, Thailand submitted a membership request, while Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said in an interview with Chinese news portal Guancha that his country would soon begin formal procedures.

“Being a member of BRICS would open up trade and investment opportunities, so the question is ‘why not?'” Piti Srisangam, the executive director of the ASEAN Foundation, told DW.

“The bloc has members from all over the world, but none from Southeast Asia yet,” he added.

According to James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, “both Thailand and Malaysia are seen as middle powers.”

“It’s better for them to join groups like BRICS so that they will have a larger voice in the international arena. But the major benefit will be trade,” he added.

Last year, BRICS — an acronym that was originally used to refer to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — decided to expand its membership, inviting Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join the bloc.

The name for the expanded group has not yet been officially announced, but it could be called “BRICS Plus”.

Combined, its members account for about 45% of the world population — around 3.5 billion people.

Their economies are worth around US$30 trillion (€28 trillion) — about 28% of the global economy, according to World Bank data.

The bloc “can help Malaysia’s digital economy grow faster by allowing it to integrate with countries that have strong digital markets and also take advantage of best practices from other members,” Rahul Mishra, associate professor at the Center for Indo-Pacific Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, told DW.

“Thailand would also be able to draw investments in important industries including services, manufacturing, and agriculture,” he added.

Chin believes the trade ties that Malaysia and Thailand already have with China have influenced their decisions to join BRICS.

China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner for the past 15 years and Thailand’s biggest for 11 years, according to official data.

Both these Southeast Asian nations becoming BRICS members “will enhance their relationship with China,” Chin told DW.

Last month, Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa insisted that Bangkok did not view joining BRICS as an act of “choosing sides,” or as a way to counterbalance any other bloc.

“Thailand is unique in that we are friends with every country and enemies to none. We can act as a bridge between developing countries and BRICS members,” Maris said.

Apart from BRICS, Thailand has also applied to join the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which has 38 mostly Western members.

“Small and middle powers do not have many options,” Piti said. “What Thailand is doing is a balancing act — one foot with the Western liberal democracy and the other foot with the emerging economies.”

In Malaysia, public sentiment is currently more in favor of China, the world’s second-largest economy after the United States, according to a recent survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singaporean think tank.

Nearly three-quarters of the survey’s respondents said ASEAN should favor China over the US if the bloc were forced to align with one of the two rival superpowers.

In June, during the three-day visit of Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Malaysia, Anwar criticized “the incessant propaganda that we should cast aspersions and fear the dominance of China economically, militarily, technologically.”

“We do not. We in Malaysia, having a neutral stance, have the resolve to work with all countries and with China,” he added.

Malaysia and Thailand are not the only countries in Southeast Asia interested in joining BRICS.

In May, Pham Thu Hang, Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told a press briefing in Hanoi that “like many countries around the world, we are closely monitoring the process of BRICS membership expansion.”

Mishra believes Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia “could be the potential applicants” as they already have good ties with China, India, and Russia — all key players in BRICS.

“For Vietnam, which has been registering significant investments, it would be a good opportunity to further boost its trade beyond their traditional markets into the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa,” he added.

Ahead of the BRICS summit in South Africa last year, there had been speculation that Indonesia — the only G20 country in Southeast Asia that hopes to complete the accession process with the OECD within three years — could become a BRICS member.

But ultimately, Indonesian President Joko Widodo told the public that his government had decided not to submit a letter of interest. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said at a press conference in January that Jakarta was still weighing the pros and cons of the BRICS membership.

 

Pezeshkian initiates consultative process

Iran’s acting president, Mohammad Mokhber, met with the president-elect, Masoud Pezeshkian, on Sunday. During this crucial meeting, Mokhber presented a comprehensive report detailing the current state of executive affairs across various sectors, including political, economic, cultural, and social fields. This report aimed to provide the president-elect with a thorough understanding of the ongoing initiatives and challenges facing the nation.

Pezeshkian expressed his respect for the late President Ebrahim Raisi, acknowledging his tireless and dedicated efforts throughout his presidency. He also extended his gratitude to the administration's members for their relentless work following Raisi's martyrdom, highlighting the significant and effective steps taken by Mokhber to ensure the smooth operation of the government during this transitional period.

In another significant development, Saeed Jalili, the presidential election candidate and Pezeshkian's rival in the runoff election, met with the president-elect on Saturday night. 

This friendly meeting was marked by Jalili's congratulations to Pezeshkian on his election victory. The two discussed various national issues and Jalili shared his views and proposed solutions.

Pezeshkian emphasized the importance of not only having plans but also employing experts to ensure these plans are successfully implemented. He expressed his readiness to receive Jalili's opinions and suggestions, demonstrating a willingness to incorporate diverse perspectives into his administration.

Ali Akbar Nateq Nuri, the former Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, met with the president-elect on Saturday.

Nateq Nuri congratulated Pezeshkian on his victory in Iran's presidential elections, wishing success for the elected president of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Veteran parliamentarian Pezeshkian emerged victorious in Iran's runoff presidential election, as announced by the interior ministry. 

The election concluded a tight race, with voters turning out in significant numbers on Friday. Pezeshkian received over 16 million votes, surpassing his rival Saeed Jalili, who garnered more than 13 million votes from the total of over 30 million votes cast.

"By gaining a majority of the votes cast on Friday, Pezeshkian has become Iran's next president," stated the interior ministry. 

Pezeshkian's victory marks the end of an intense electoral process and positions him as Iran’s 9th president.

Pezeshkian originally ran against a field of five candidates last week, winning the largest number of votes but falling short of a majority which sent him and Jalili to a second round.  

 

World must know ten things about Pezeshkian

After Ebrahim Raisi, an arch-conservative elected to the presidency in 2021, was killed in a helicopter crash in May, Iran had to call a snap election. The winner is 69 year old Masoud Pezeshkian, labelled reformist. As tensions continue to increase across the Middle East, and with Iran-United States relations at a low point, following are 10 things you should know about the new president.

1. Pezeshkian was one of only six candidates approved to run for president by Iran’s Guardian Council, which supervises the country’s elections, and the only reformist candidate among them. In Friday’s run-off, he defeated conservative hardliner Saeed Jalili. Eighty people had tried to run for president but almost all of them were blocked by the Council, including former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

2. While his late predecessor Raisi was a trained cleric, Pezeshkian is a medical doctor – a heart surgeon in fact. His political career began when he was appointed deputy health minister (1997-2001) and then health minister (2001-2005) in the government of the last reformist Iranian president Mohammad Khatami. He went on to become a five-term member of Iran’s parliament and a deputy speaker.

3. The new president takes a more liberal line on the enforcement of the compulsory headscarf in Iran. “If we want to ‘force’ hijab in the country,” he has said, “I don’t think we will get anywhere.” After the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, Pezeshkian wrote that it was “unacceptable in the Islamic Republic to arrest a girl for her hijab and then hand over her dead body to her family.”

4. Pezeshkian’s campaign slogan is “For Iran,” which is believed to be a not so subtle reference to the popular anthem supporting the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests called “Baraye”, or “For.” Shervin Hajipour, the Grammy Awarding-winning Iranian singer-songwriter behind “Baraye,” was sentenced to more than three years in prison in March for “propaganda against the system” and “encouraging people to protest.”

5. The new president says he wants better relations with the West and the United States, in particular, and seems to also want a return to the nuclear deal that Barack Obama signed, Donald Trump tore up, and Joe Biden has refused to resurrect. Pezeshkian even deployed former Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, one of the architects of the deal, as a surrogate on the campaign trail.

6. Pezeshkian, nevertheless, like most Iranian politicians, has a long history of denouncing the United States “The Great Satan”. In 2019, when Iran shot down an American drone, Pezeshkian said “the real terrorist is America” and described the targeting of the drone as “a strong punch in the mouths of the leaders of criminal America.”

7. Pezeshkian, a reformist, isn’t shy about defending the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has huge power and influence inside Iran. It was controversially designated a foreign terrorist organization by the Trump administration. The Iran-Iraq War veteran even once wore an IRGC military uniform in parliament as a show of support for the organization, which he says is “different” to what it was in the past.

8. Persians are the ethnic majority in Iran, but Pezeshkian is the son of an Azeri father and a Kurdish mother, and fluent in both Azeri and Kurdish. “I am not voting for Dr Pezeshkian because I am a Turk,” one Azeri voter told IranWire, “but because if he is elected, he will be the president of the oppressed and discriminated minority of this country.”

9. Like President Joe Biden, who lost his wife and young daughter in a car crash in 1972, the new Iranian president also lost his wife and young daughter in a car crash in 1994. Unlike Biden, Pezeshkian “never remarried and raised his remaining two sons and a daughter alone.”

10. Pezeshkian may have won his race thanks to a late surge in voter turnout. The first round of the election saw the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic, just 40%. But on Friday, in the run-off, it bumped up to around 50%.

For some Iranians, reported the Washington Post, “refusing to vote is an act of opposition in a country that quells political protests with violent force.” Others have embraced political apathy because of the failure of multiple presidents from across the political spectrum to effect social or economic change.

Pezeshkian has acknowledged the challenge ahead. “I will do everything possible to look at those who were not seen by the powerful and whose voices are not heard,” he told supporters earlier this week.

But what does “everything possible” look like for an elected Iranian president inside of a political system where most of the power remains in the hands of an unelected Supreme Leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei?

Can the Islamic Republic’s first reformist president for 19 years offer real hope or change to almost 90 million Iranians, more than half of whom are under the age of 30? That remains to be seen.

And how will the United States respond to an Iranian leader who wants to mend ties with the West?