Sunday, 2 June 2024

OPEC Plus extends deep oil production cuts

OPEC Plus agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts for 2024 but to start phasing them out in 2025, as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid global demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival US production. OPEC Plus will hold its next meeting on December 01, 2024.

Oil prices trade near US$80 per barrel, below what many OPEC Plus members need to balance their budget. Worries over slow demand growth in top oil importer China have weighed on prices alongside rising oil stocks in developed economies.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC Plus, have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.

OPEC Plus members are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand.

The cuts include 2 million bpd by all OPEC Plus members, the first round of voluntary cuts by nine members of 1.66 million bpd, and the second round of voluntary cuts by eight members of 2.2 million bpd

OPEC Plus extended the first round of cuts until the end of 2025 from the end of 2024, the group said in a statement.

It also agreed to extend the third round of voluntary cuts into the third quarter of 2024, OPEC Plus sources said, adding that more details were being worked out and would be announced on Sunday.

The countries which have made voluntary cuts in the second round are Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and Gabon. The same countries except Gabon participated in the third round.

The group also agreed to allocate the United Arab Emirates a higher production quota of 3.5 million bpd in 2025, up from the current level of 2.9 million.

OPEC Plus also postponed the deadline for an independent assessment of its members' production capacities to the end of November 2025 from June 2024. The figures will be used as guidance for 2026 reference production levels.

 

 

What after verdict against Donald Trump?

The guilty verdict against former President Donald Trump is a historic milestone, marking the first time in US history that a former president has been held criminally accountable for his actions. This landmark decision has captured significant media attention and spurred widespread discussion about its implications.

However, amidst this focus, there are broader concerns regarding the actions of past and current US presidents in international conflicts. These concerns include illegal invasions, bombing of civilians, and ongoing military support to nations accused of committing war crimes. These critical issues have not received the same level of scrutiny.

Recently, CBS News correspondent Ed O’Keefe questioned National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby about the US administration's role in international conflicts, specifically the ongoing situation in Gaza. This questioning brought to light President Biden's recent three-point plan to address the conflict, which critics argue lacks measures to ensure Israeli compliance with ceasefire agreements and does not condition military aid on adherence to international law.

The call for greater accountability and a shift in US foreign policy is growing louder as the nation approaches its upcoming elections. There is a strong push among citizens to hold leaders accountable for their actions and to support campaigns that prioritize peace, justice, and humanitarian values. This reflects a deepening desire for substantial changes in both domestic and foreign policies to better align with ethical standards and international obligations.

Saturday, 1 June 2024

Has the world formally recognized Taliban regime in Afghanistan?

No country in the world has formally recognized the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, where the group seized power in 2021. Still some of the countries operate embassies in Kabul and have accepted diplomats appointed by the Taliban, which controls Afghan missions in some 14 nations in the region.

Russia is the latest country that is set to expand diplomatic ties with the militants. Moscow appears poised to delist the Taliban from its list of terrorist groups.

“This could be a step toward the Taliban gaining regional legitimacy,” said Graeme Smith, a senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Many countries have tied recognition to the Taliban establishing an inclusive government, ensuring women’s rights, and breaking ties with extremist groups — issues that the militants have refused to budge on.

Afghanistan’s neighbors, concerned about security, trade, migration, and drug trafficking, have been more open to establishing ties with the Taliban, said Smith.

The militants face major hurdles in gaining international legitimacy, and many Afghan missions around the world are still run by diplomats appointed by the former internationally recognized Afghan government.

The hardline Islamist group appears to be making headway in its strategy to gain recognition from countries in Afghanistan’s backyard.

RUSSIA

Russia is one of the few countries that maintain its embassy in Kabul. In April 2022, Russia handed over the Afghan Embassy in Moscow to Taliban, becoming the latest country to accredit Taliban-appointed diplomats without officially recognizing the Taliban-led government. Commenting on removing the Taliban from Russia’s list of terrorist organizations, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on May 28 that Moscow should build relations with the group.

CHINA

In January, Chinese President Xi Jinping formally accepted the credentials of a Taliban-appointed ambassador, becoming the first head of state to do so. The Chinese Foreign Ministry clarified the move did not mean Beijing officially recognized the Taliban-led government. But Taliban celebrated the move as a major diplomatic victory.

PAKISTAN

The Taliban gained control of the Afghan Embassy in Islamabad in October 2021. It was one of the first Afghan missions the group took over after regaining power. Pakistan is a longtime ally of the Taliban, although the sides have fallen out recently over Taliban’s alleged support for the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan.

IRAN

Tehran also kept its embassy in Kabul open after the Taliban seized control of the capital. Iran formally handed over the Afghan Embassy to the Taliban in February 2023. Former foes, Iran and the Taliban have forged close ties despite sporadic border clashes.

INDIA

New Delhi reopened its embassy in Kabul last year. But Afghan diplomatic missions in India are in limbo as diplomats appointed by the former Afghan government have tried to stave off Taliban attempts to take over the embassy and two consulates.

KAZAKHSTAN

In December, Astana removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist groups. That came months after Kazakhstan accepted a new Afghan ambassador appointed by the Taliban.

UZBEKISTAN

Tashkent engaged the Taliban soon after the group returned to power. In February, the Taliban appointed a diplomat to take charge of the Afghan Embassy in the Uzbek capital.

TURKMENISTAN

Ashgabat accepted a Taliban ambassador in March 2022. The sides have worked closely on regional energy and transport projects. But there have been sporadic tensions and border clashes.

TAJIKISTAN

The Taliban controls the Afghan consulate in the eastern Tajik city of Khorog. But the embassy is run by the ambassador appointed by the ex-Afghan government. Tajikistan is the only neighboring country to publicly oppose the Taliban’s return to power, and Dushanbe has hosted some of the leaders of the National Resistance Front, an anti-Taliban resistance group.

AZERBAIJAN

Baku officially reopened its embassy in Kabul in March, following through on a pledge made last year. But it is not clear if there are any Taliban diplomats present in Azerbaijan.

TURKEY

The Afghan Embassy in Ankara is controlled by the ambassador appointed by the ex-Afghan government. But the consulate in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, is run by the Taliban. Several exiled Afghan political leaders are believed to reside in Turkey, including former Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum.

QATAR

Doha has hosted a Taliban political office since 2013. The Qatari capital was the scene of negotiations between Taliban and US officials that paved the way for the complete withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan in 2021. Qatar has engaged with the Taliban at the highest level and remains a key international interlocutor for its government, which controls the Afghan Embassy in Doha.

SAUDI ARABIA

Riyadh maintains an embassy in Kabul and continues to offer consular services for Afghans, thousands of whom work in the kingdom as laborers. After the Taliban takeover, Riyadh helped establish an Organization of Islamic Countries mission in Kabul. It is unclear if the Taliban controls all Afghan diplomatic missions in the oil-rich country.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

Abu Dhabi also maintains an embassy in Kabul. The Taliban has appointed diplomats to the Afghan Embassy in Abu Dhabi and the consulate in Dubai.

Courtesy: South Asia Journal

Israeli ministers threaten to resign over ceasefire proposal

Two Israeli far-right ministers have threatened to resign from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government over a ceasefire proposal outlined by US President Biden on Friday. 

Both National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on the social media platform X that the deal could not be forged unless the Palestinian militant group Hamas is destroyed first and that they would remove their parties from the coalition if the current proposal is adopted.  

Biden unveiled a new Israeli-led proposal that was submitted to Hamas through Qatar. It includes a three-part road map toward releasing all remaining hostages taken on October 07, 2023 and a pathway to a full ceasefire. It would include pulling Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from Gaza’s populated areas and include reconstruction efforts for the Gaza Strip. 

Ben-Gvir slammed the offer, saying the war would end without Hamas being wiped out. 

“This is a reckless deal, which constitutes a victory for terrorism and a security threat to the State of Israel,” he said Saturday on X. 

Smotrich had a similar assessment. 

“We demand the continuation of the war until Hamas is destroyed and all hostages return,” he said while also stating that he is opposed to returning displaced Palestinians to Gaza’s north side. 

Netanyahu said that the conditions for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war “have not changed.” 

“Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel,” he said on Saturday. 

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said he would back the hostage proposal if Ben-Gvir and Smotrich leave the government.

With both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir parties potentially leaving, the prime minister could lose the majority in the parliament. 

On the ground, the fighting has continued in Rafah, the city in the south of Gaza, the war, now getting close to eight months in duration. Since then, Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has killed over 36,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials.

 

US falsified report to claim Israel not blocking Gaza aid

The US State Department falsified a report to absolve Israel of blocking humanitarian aid from entering Gaza, disregarding the judgment of its own internal experts, the Guardian reported on May 31, 2024.

The Joe Biden White House, led by Chief of Staff Jeff Zients, and the US State Department, led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken have been strong backers of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, providing both weapons and funding needed to continue the slaughter of Palestinians.

According to Stacy Gilbert, a former senior US official who resigned this week, the report initially made clear that Israel was blocking US-provided humanitarian aid from reaching Gaza, based on the consensus of State Department experts consulted to draft the report.

Gilbert was one of the department’s subject matter experts who drafted the report mandated under National Security Memorandum 20 (NSM-20) and published on May 10, 2024.

However, higher-ranking State Department officials edited the draft of the report, changing the conclusion to suggest that Israel was not blocking aid. 

Gilbert resigned earlier this week from her post as senior civil-military adviser in the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration in response to the change.

The final version of the NSM-20 report said the State Department did not currently assess that the Israeli government is prohibiting or otherwise restricting the transport or delivery of US humanitarian assistance in Gaza.

The change in the report’s conclusion assured that the US could continue to export weapons to Israel amid its ongoing assault on Gaza, which has killed over 35,000 people. Hundreds of thousands more are at risk of starvation.

Under a clause in the Foreign Assistance Act, the US is obliged to cut arms sales and security assistance to any country that has blocked the delivery of US aid.

Since October 07, 2023 Israeli leaders have openly stated they wish to prevent food and other aid from entering Gaza, while the Israeli army has killed aid workers, police providing security to aid convoys, and Palestinian civilians seeking to collect food aid.

Gilbert, who worked for the State Department for twenty years, including in several war zones, said that the report’s conclusion contradicted the overwhelming consensus of State Department experts who were consulted on the report.

She said there was general agreement that Israel was playing a role in limiting the amount of food and medical supplies crossing the border into Gaza.

“There is consensus among the humanitarian community on that. It is absolutely the opinion of the humanitarian subject matter experts in the state department, and not just in my bureau – people who look at this from the intelligence community and from other bureaus. I would be very hard pressed to think of anyone who has said [Israeli obstruction] is not an issue,” Gilbert said. “That’s why I object to that report saying that Israel is not blocking humanitarian assistance. That is patently false.”

“Sometime at the end of April, the subject matter experts were taken off the report, and we were told it would be edited at a higher level. So I did not know what was in the report until it came out,” she said. 

“But when the report came out, late on the Friday afternoon May 10, I read it and I had to reread it. I had to go back and print out that section and read it, because I could not believe it stated so starkly that we assess that Israel is not blocking humanitarian assistance.

“Two hours after it was released, I sent an email to my front office and the team that is working on this, saying I will resign as a result of this,” Gilbert said.

According to Democratic senator Chris Van Hollen, “Stacy Gilbert’s statements further corroborate the concerns I have expressed that the findings of the bureaus and experts most involved with the distribution of aid and compliance with international law were bypassed in favor of political convenience,” said Van Hollen.

 

US invites war criminal to address congress

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has officially been invited to deliver an address to Congress, reports The Hill.

Speaker Mike Johnson on Friday sent Netanyahu a formal invitation to speak during a joint meeting of Congress, and the invitation featured the signatures of all four Congressional leaders: Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

“We join the State of Israel in your struggle against terror, especially as Hamas continues to hold American and Israeli citizens captive and its leaders jeopardize regional stability,” the letter reads.

“For this reason, on behalf of the bipartisan leadership of the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate, we would like to invite you to address a Joint Meeting of Congress.”

The address is expected to take place as soon as the next eight weeks or soon after August recess. It would be Netanyahu’s fourth address to a joint meeting of Congress, following speeches in 2015, 2011 and 1996.

The invitation left Washington after weeks of delay from Schumer who, during a high-profile floor speech in March, declared Netanyahu had lost his way and called for new elections in Israel, drawing the ire of the longtime Israeli leader, Republicans and some Democrats.

Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish official in the US history, and his office on a number of occasions said the Senate leader was supportive of having Netanyahu address Congress, despite his sharp criticism of the Israeli leader, but the New York Democrat did not sign the letter until recently.

Netanyahu’s visit to the Capitol — if it comes to fruition — is certain to spark intense anger among liberals in both chambers who have denounced the conservative leader’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, especially as the number of humanitarian deaths in the Gaza strip continues to rise.

Those feelings deepened last week after a prosecutor with the International Criminal Court (ICC), which the US is not a party to, filed arrest warrants for Netanyahu and other Israeli and Hamas leaders, alleging that they bear criminal responsibility for a list of war crimes.

Some progressives in the House told The Hill last week that they would likely skip the speech if it materialized, taking aim at the Israeli leader’s conduct during the war.

“I think there’ll be a lot of people who wouldn’t go, just given the fact that he is pushing this war into a place that no one wants it to go into just to save his own butt, which makes Israel less safe and the region less safe,” said Rep. Maxwell Alejandro Frost, who added that he would “probably” boycott the event.

Rep. Jan Schakowsky, a Jewish Democrat who called Netanyahu a “menace,” said she “boycotted his last visit. I certainly will not attend this one.”

“It’s not going to help move us forward — it’s a detriment,” she added. “Should he come for any reason, in any venue, I am not going to be there.”

During Netanyahu’s 2015 visit to the Capitol, the Israeli leader used his speech to attack then-President Obama over the Iran nuclear deal, an extraordinary display that was denounced by Obama’s Democratic allies.

The formal invite for Netanyahu to address Congress marks the culmination of a weeks-long discussion over whether the Israeli leader would be given the opportunity to speak to lawmakers in the Capitol.

The idea first cropped up in March, when Johnson said he planned to invite the Israeli leader to deliver an address following Schumer’s controversial comments calling for new elections in the Middle East country.

Johnson said he sent Schumer a draft letter inviting Netanyahu to the Capitol in mid-March. Invitations for foreign leaders to address Congress are typically extended on behalf of congressional leaders. There are not, however, formal procedures for inviting foreign leaders to address Congress, according to the Congressional Research Service.

In late-April, the Speaker said Schumer had not yet signed the letter, telling The Hill “it’s been sitting on Chuck Schumer’s desk.”

Responding to Johnson’s remarks, Schumer’s office told The Hill that the Democratic leader “intends to join the invitation, the timing is being worked out.”

Johnson upped the pressure on Schumer to sign the letter last week, when he said the House would move ahead with an invitation on its own if the Democratic leader did not join his letter soon.

Schumer again reiterated that he would support having Netanyahu visit the Capitol, telling reporters “I’m discussing that now with the Speaker of the House, and as I’ve always said, our relationship with Israel is ironclad and transcends any one prime minister or president.”

 

Dr. Susan Saxton, Interim President, Middle East Institute

The Board of Governors of the Middle East Institute (MEI) has announced the appointment of Dr. Susan E. Saxton as interim President and CEO of the Institute, effective June 01, 2023.

Saxton, who joined MEI in January 2024 as Chief Operating Officer, is assuming her new role following the departure of Dr. Paul Salem, who is relocating to the region to pursue an international role for the institute.

Saxton brings more than 25 years of expertise in education and business, focusing on transformational leadership and corporate strategy, most recently in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Previously, she served as Founding President at the American University of Bahrain, where she established a first-of-its-kind campus to deliver a unique style of education in the evolving Gulf-Cooperation-Council (GCC) market.

Dr. Saxton has held senior leadership positions within the Laureate Education network including Chief Strategy Officer, Chief Academic Officer, and Senior Vice President for the Global Products and Services Division; Chief Executive Officer and Senior Vice President for the University of St. Augustine for Health Sciences; and Chief of Staff for the ImagineAfrica Alliance, a public private partnership (PPP) supported by the Clinton Global Initiative, 4-H National Council, USAID, MasterCard Foundation, ImagineNations Group, DuPont, and Laureate Education, Inc.

In these positions, Dr. Saxton played a key leadership role in the acquisition and expansion of campuses, requiring extensive due diligence and regulatory negotiations, as well as the restructuring, transformation and scaling of institutions, and the development and growth of entrepreneurial initiatives.

She also served as Chief Strategy and Development Officer for the International Baccalaureate Organization (IBO) in The Hague, Dean of Students and Vice President of Strategy and Product Development at Kaplan University, and Founding Dean of the School of Business and Technology at Capella University.

Dr. Saxton has participated on the Boards of the American Chamber of Commerce (Bahrain), Glion Institute (Switzerland and UK), African Initiative for Agribusiness Research (Kenya), HSM (Argentina), Santa Fe University of Art and Design (New Mexico US), Touro College South (Florida US), and several other youth-oriented, business, and educational institutions. She served as a Non-Resident Senior Fellow (Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs) for the Atlantic Council, and is a member of the Climate Action Committee for MENA 2050.

Dr. Saxton taught and mentored at the masters and doctoral level, and has served as Editor-in-Chief for the Journal of Teaching and Learning in Higher Education, on the Editorial Board of the Academy of Entrepreneurship Journal, and on the Editorial Advisory Board for the HLRC Journal; and is the recipient of the Distinguished Research Award from the International Academy of Case Studies.

She has published numerous works including: The Impact of Conflict Management on the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Dispute Settlement System, Global Protection of Communities and the Trend Toward Harmonization of Law: A Historical Perspective and Best Practices for the Future, The International Baccalaureate (IB) Program: An International Gateway to Higher Education and Beyond, and Six Sigma and the US Army: A Potential for Excellence.  

Dr. Saxton holds the following degrees: PhD in Human Services, PhD in Organization and Management, LLM in International Business, MSBA in Finance, and BA in Mathematics.