US threatens ICC over Israeli arrest warrants

In another sign United States allowing Israel to violate international law, Washington stands accused of threatening a UN court from issuing arrest warrants against the Israeli leaders.

Senior Republican officials say President Biden’s administration backs their stance toward the International Criminal Court (ICC) if the body goes ahead with its plan to issue arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Speaking to reporters, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson says there is support among Democrats in the White House for the ICC to withdraw its position amid reports the UN Court is set to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu as well as other high-ranking officials including War Minister Yoav Gallant and military chief of staff Herzi Halevi for war crimes. 

In a direct threat to the ICC, Johnson underlined that “they’d better not do that … I think that it would make us as a nation respond in kind to the ICC”. 
“I think a group of senators and House members who would move expeditiously and we might just turn the table on the ICC. They better be careful,” the Republican leader warned. 
According to Johnson, who spoke to Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday, the Biden administration totally agrees.  

Blinken “confirmed that the position of the White House is our position … they are calling for the ICC to stand down,” Johnson told reporters. 

According to Axios, Congress has informed the ICC that any arrest warrants against Israeli leaders will be met with US retaliation with legislation to that effect already in the works. 

In a statement, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, echoed those warnings from his party leadership.

The Israeli occupation regime does not recognize the authority of the ICC, but issuing warrants would mean that the 124 countries that have signed up to the body, including some of Tel Aviv’s closest Western allies, would be obliged to arrest Israeli officials if they enter their territory.

Many have called out the US hypocrisy in its response to war crimes investigations against the Israelis, whose war on Gaza has so far led to the murder of around 35,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children. Using starvation as a weapon of war in Gaza is another Israeli war crime that reports indicate the ICC is pursuing the arrest warrants for. 

Last year, Biden welcomed an ICC decision to issue an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying it was justified over what the US president said was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia says the warrant against Putin is a meaningless campaign by the West to damage Russia’s reputation and denies war crimes during its military actions against the US and NATO-backed Ukrainian army. 

“This is evidence of the stratification of consciousness,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a post on social media in which she hinted that Israel is a satellite of the United States. 

“On the one hand, the ICC judges are under US sanctions; on the other hand, Washington fully supported, if not stimulated, the issuance of ICC warrants against the Russian leadership; on the third, the American political system does not recognize the legitimacy of this structure in relation to itself and its satellites.” Zakharova pointed out. 

The Russian diplomat was responding to White House Press Secretary Karin Jean-Pierre who stated, “The US authorities believe that the investigation of the International Criminal Court into Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip, as well as the issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli high-ranking officials in this regard, goes beyond the jurisdiction of the court.”

ICC arrest warrants would be one of the most severe diplomatic setbacks for the Israeli occupation regime and its political and military leadership since the start of the war on Gaza.

Tel Aviv is already facing a genocide case, brought by South Africa, at the International Court of Justice as well as widespread accusations of indiscriminately carpet-bombing civilian infrastructure in Gaza and causing famine by preventing aid supplies from entering the enclave. 

Experts have highlighted that they do not believe the prospect of any ICC action would derail negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, saying such reports emerging in the US are part of wider tactics being deployed by Washington and Tel Aviv to delay the warrants being issued. 

Israeli media say Netanyahu is worried about the ICC issuing an arrest warrant against him, as reports indicate the US is lobbying its Western allies to pile pressure on the top UN Court. 

 

Understanding Middle East grand bargain

The Biden administration and Saudi Arabia are finalizing an agreement for United States security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance, even as an Israel-Saudi normalization deal envisioned as part of a Middle East “grand bargain” remains elusive, reports Reuters.

A working draft lays out principles and proposals aimed at putting back on track a US-led effort to reshape the volatile region that was derailed by Hamas’ October 07, 2023 attack on Israel and the outbreak of war in Gaza.

It appears to be a long-shot strategy that faces numerous obstacles, not least the uncertainty over how the Gaza conflict will unfold.

The US and Saudi negotiators have, for now, prioritized a bilateral security accord that would then be part of a wider package presented to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who would have to decide whether to make concessions to secure historic ties with Riyadh.

“We’re very close to reaching an agreement” on the US-Saudi portion of the package, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday, predicting that details could be ironed out “in very short order.”

That part of the plan is likely to call for formal US guarantees to defend the kingdom as well as Saudi access to more advanced US weaponry in return for halting Chinese arms purchases and restricting Beijing’s investment in the country.

The US-Saudi security accord is also expected to involve sharing emerging technologies with Riyadh, including artificial intelligence.

The terms are expected to be finalized within weeks.

The conditions that Netanyahu will face to join a broader deal are expected to include winding down the war in Gaza and agreeing on a pathway to Palestinian statehood, both of which Netanyahu has steadfastly resisted.

US officials hope Netanyahu will not want to pass up the historic opportunity to open relations with Saudi Arabia, guardian of Islam’s holiest sites, but are mindful of the domestic political pressures he is under, including keeping Israel’s most right-wing government ever from collapsing.

A broader pact giving the world's biggest oil exporter US military protection together with normalization with Israel would unite two long-time foes and bind Riyadh to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region.

A normalization deal would also bolster Israel's defenses against arch-foe Iran and give US President Joe Biden a diplomatic victory ahead of the November 05, 2024 presidential election.

Overhanging these efforts is Netanyahu’s threat to launch a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are sheltering, despite US entreaties to refrain from an operation that could mean further heavy civilian casualties.

Call for single Palestinian government

In a joint statement, issued at the end of the meeting, the foreign ministers and representatives of the Arab and European countries pledged full support to the efforts to reach an immediate ceasefire, as well as to release hostages, and end the war in Gaza. The meeting also called for ending all illegal unilateral actions and violations in the occupied Palestinian territories, including East Jerusalem as well as for addressing the ongoing catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Foreign Minister of Norway Espen Barth Eide co-chaired the meeting between the Ministerial Committee, assigned by the Joint Arab- Islamic Extraordinary Summit on Developments in the Gaza Strip, and the European foreign ministers and representatives, to discuss the urgent need to end the war in Gaza and to take steps to implement the two-state solution.

The meeting stressed the need to intensify support for state-building efforts, support the new Palestinian government, and the importance of having a single Palestinian government in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.

The meeting underscored the importance of moving the conflict into a political track so as to enable a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Concrete steps towards realization of a Palestinian State in the context of the two-state solution were figured high in the meeting. An increased urgency to take such steps and the importance of coordinating positions were emphasized. The meeting also discussed the matter of recognition of a Palestinian State by countries that have not yet done so, and the timing and context of such recognition.

The ministers emphasized the importance of the need to adopt a holistic approach towards a credible irreversible track for the implementation of the two-state solution. This needs to be in accordance with international law and agreed parameters, including United Nations Security Council Resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative, among other initiatives.

The objective is to achieve a just and lasting peace that fulfills the rights of the Palestinian people and the security of Israel and the region. In return, this will pave the way for normal relations between countries in a region, where stability, security, peace and cooperation prevail.

The meeting was attended by foreign ministers and representatives of Algeria, Bahrain, Belgium, Egypt, the European Union, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Jordan, Arab League, Palestine, Portugal, Qatar, Slovenia, Spain, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates.

Can someone shut up Bezalel Smotrich?

It is highly disgusting that Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Tuesday openly demanded the the elimination of blockaded Gaza enclave, destruction of cities and refugee camps where 2.3 million Palestinians are still battling their survival.

"There are no half measures," said Smotrich at a government meeting. "Rafah, Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat—total annihilation."

"'You will blot out the remembrance of Amalek from under heaven,'" he added, quoting the biblical story of the nation of Amalek, whose people God commanded the Israelites to exterminate and which right-wing Israeli leaders have long invoked to justify the killing of Palestinians.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also referenced Amalek in the first weeks of Israel's current escalation against Gaza; Smotrich's comments came as he and other government officials pushed Netanyahu to forge ahead with a planned attack on the southern city of Rafah, where more than 1.5 million people have been displaced as other cities across Gaza have been decimated by Israeli forces.

Ibrahim Hooper, national communications director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), called on President Joe Biden to stop condemning thousands of US college students who have demanded a ceasefire and an end to military aid for Israel and direct his ire toward the Israeli government, which he has repeatedly insisted is targeting Hamas despite its genocidal statements and indiscriminate attacks.

"In case the Israeli government's genocidal intent in Gaza was unclear to anyone despite its daily war crimes against the Palestinian people, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's words should serve as another wake-up call," said Hooper.

"The intent of the Netanyahu government has always been Palestinian land without Palestinians, and violence has always been the route to achieve that heinous goal. Instead of condemning college students, President Biden must condemn Israeli leaders for making and acting on their genocidal threats."

In recent months, Israeli officials have stated that the "migration" of Gaza residents is their ultimate goal in relentlessly attacking the enclave, that all Palestinians in Gaza are "responsible" for a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in October and are legitimate targets, that the enclave should be "flattened," and that the Israel Defense Forces is fighting "human animals."

Journalist Mehdi Hasan sardonically suggested that Smotrich's comments will be deemed acceptable by the Biden administration, members of Congress, and the U.S. corporate media because he didn't "say it on a college campus."

"Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a member of the security cabinet, ought to be fired immediately over his latest remarks," read an editorial in Haaretz Tuesday night that was published as police in New York were storming Columbia University to arrest students.

"That's how any properly run country would act, and all the more so a country against which the International Court of Justice in The Hague has issued provisional measures requiring it to refrain from genocide, including one requiring it to deal properly with incitement to genocide."

Smotrich and others have objected to what National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Tuesday called a "reckless" deal that would allow for the release of scores of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners who have long been detained in Israeli jails. The deal would include a 40-day halt in fighting.

CAIR also pointed out Tuesday that five units of Israel's security forces have been accused of committing a "gross violation of human rights," according to a U.S. State Department analysis.

"Our nation's repeated claim that it supports international law and human rights," said national executive director Nihad Awad, "is a cruel illusion."

 

United States losing ground to Russia in Africa

The expected withdrawal of US forces from Niger will endanger US counter-terrorism operations and hand Russia more influence in Africa as American and western ties on the continent fracture, reports The Hill. 

Around 1,000 troops in Niger are expected to eventually withdraw from the country after the conclusion of ongoing high-level talks between Niamey and Washington following a military coup in the African country last year, the Pentagon has said. 

A forced withdrawal from Niger is a major setback for US military as it fights against Islamic extremist groups across the Sahel, a volatile region that stretches from Senegal in western Africa to the Red Sea.

At risk for the US is not just keeping ISIS, Boko Haram and other insurgent groups in check, but also the growing influence of Russia, Iran and China, all of which are jockeying for power in Africa along with the West. Western powers like the U.S. and European Union seem to be losing the battle in the Sahel.

“There’s been this hollowing out of all of the international security cooperation,” said  Joseph Siegle, director of research of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the Pentagon-funded National Defense University. “They were all part of a broader regional effort to try to support those countries.” 

Siegle attributes the shift to a series of governments being toppled by military juntas and an anti-western disinformation campaign supported by malicious actors in Russia or other hostile nations. But he said closer ties with Russia will harm those countries in the future, because Moscow is not investing economically into those nations.

“These countries are going to feel huge strains, and they’ll continue to try to put on a good face to show this is working, but it’s not something they’re going to be able to sustain,” he added. “Something’s going to have to give here.” 

The immediate risk of a Niger withdrawal is that the Sahel could erupt into more violence as the U.S. and France, along with other western powers, face eroding influence with military juntas that have close ties with Russia and other rival powers. 

Threats from al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked insurgent groups have already spiked in other countries ruled by military governments, including Mali, which booted French forces in 2022 but has since seen terrorist groups double their territorial control.

 

Iran and Russia: Deepening security relations

The analyst of the American think tank, Foundation for Defense Democracies (FDD), has expressed alarm over the deepening of security relations between Tehran and Moscow.

The think tank warned that Ukraine and Israel are two battlegrounds where Tehran and Moscow not only benefit from strengthening their relationship but also use them to rearrange the global order.

According to the Russian state media RIA Novosti recently reported that Russia has expressed readiness to expand military and technical cooperation with Iran. 

Russian and Iranian defense ministers discussed strengthening security relations between the two countries during a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Kazakhstan. The SCO is a security group with members including Russia, India, China, Iran, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

The think tank, citing media reports, stated that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu emphasized the significant increase in military contracts between Tehran and Moscow during a meeting with his Iranian counterpart.

Senior FDD analyst Behnam Ben Taleblu believes that Russia and Iran have increasingly been able to set aside areas of tension and disagreement between them in order to confront common enemies. 

He went on to point out that the decision of the two countries to strengthen their relationship is not in response to Western pressure, raising alarm bells for the West to increase pressure and raise the costs of this relationship for both sides. The West must work on a strategy that focuses on magnifying the differences between Moscow and Tehran and highlighting them.

Ivana Stradner another analyst from FDD believes that with the approval of new packages by the United States for Ukraine, Russia is seeking to attract more assistance from its allies. 

In fact, Russia’s victory is also a success for Iran. Tehran and Moscow believe that the United States is their common enemy, and for this reason, both countries have united against Washington.

This analytical report stipulated that the confrontation with America forms the basis of cooperation between Russia and Iran. 

The meeting of the defense ministers of the two countries took place after the disclosure of confidential Russian government documents on April 17. These documents emphasized the need for greater coordination between Moscow, Iran, China, and North Korea to change the global order under US tutelage. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin also welcomed cooperation with Iran in the energy, trade, agriculture, and technology sectors in December, following increased economic cooperation between Moscow and Tehran to bypass Western sanctions.

The FDD also mentioned Russia and Iran’s cooperation in drone technologies, stating that the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada imposed new sanctions on April 25 against entities supporting Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry.

The final part of this report claimed that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Tehran has provided hundreds of UAVs to Moscow in exchange for advanced military equipment.

Russia and Iran have both vehemently refuted allegations that Tehran sent Moscow drones to use in the conflict in Ukraine.

In July 2022, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan made the first anti-Iran claims, saying purportedly that Washington had information indicating that the Islamic Republic was getting ready to give Russia up to several hundred drones, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline for use in the conflict.

Experts and the media both emphasized the significance of Iranian drones, with much of the media coverage focused on increasing pressure on Iran. The Western media cannot deny the positive role of Iranian drones in the country's foreign policies.    

In an analysis, titled “Can Iran’s Shahed drones in Ukraine help ease tension with Russia?” military affairs expert and journalist Anton Mardasov discussed the impact of Iranian drones on the relations between Iran and Russia on the Al-Monitor website on August 06, 2023. 

According to Al-Monitor, low-cost Iranian drones have significantly impacted the battlefield. “Delivery of drones gave Iran the right to talk to Moscow on an equal footing,” Nikolay Kozhanov, a professor at the Persian Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, told Al-Monitor. 

 

 

Could Arabs join anti-Iran alliance?

On April 13, Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel, prompting Jordan to assist in defense. Initial reports suggested broader Arab involvement, indicating a potential shift in regional dynamics. However, these claims were later refuted. Despite this, Israeli leaders and some in Washington saw it as a signal of potential Arab alignment against Iran.

Israel's restrained response to the attack led to speculation about its role as a regional coalition leader against Iran. Yet, this perspective overlooks the complex realities in the region. Arab-Israeli cooperation faces challenges, including frustrations over Israeli policies in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

Arab states, often labeled as a "Sunni alliance," prioritize balancing relationships with Iran and Israel to avoid wider conflict and protect domestic legitimacy. While they provided assistance to Israel, it was driven by maintaining ties with the United States rather than aligning with Israel.

Efforts to counter Iran are driven by maintaining relations with the U.S. Gulf Arab states have engaged with Tehran to manage tensions, seeking diplomatic dialogue over retribution. Despite shared concerns about Iran's activities, Arab states prioritize normalization with Iran over direct confrontation.

Arab states are cautious about overtly supporting Israel due to domestic costs, especially concerning Palestinian statehood. They aim to balance multiple relationships and avoid alignment with anti-Iran blocs, preferring dialogue to prevent conflict escalation.

Arab states can play a crucial role in preventing escalation between Iran and Israel by facilitating communication and encouraging restraint. However, closer cooperation with Israel is hindered by ongoing conflicts, limiting political engagement and economic ties.

In the near term, efforts will focus on mediation and conflict prevention, with realistic expectations about Arab-Israeli cooperation. While technical collaboration on common concerns may continue, high-profile political engagement with Israel depends on resolving ongoing conflicts.