Ships continue to transit Red Sea

With the passage of time it is becoming evident that Houthis are targeting vessels with Israeli links or cargoes only. That is the reason ship owners are still sending vessels through the region.

The western media is portraying that Houthis attack any ship passing through the Southern Red Sea. Therefore, the ship operators are rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope.

According to the most recent poll conducted by Seatrade Maritime News when the respondents were asked, are some ship owners and charterers right in risking continuing to transit the Red Sea given the threat of attack?

The response to the question was very evenly split with 53% voting ‘yes’ they were right to continue transiting the Red Sea, while 47% said ‘no’ they should not transit the Red Sea.

The results in many ways mirror the industry’s reaction which has varied significantly by sector. Around two-thirds of all container ships have diverted via the Cape of Good Hope, with CMA CGM joining other top lines in this decision over the weekend. Similarly, LNG carrier transits of the Suez Canal 73% in January 2024 compared to November 2023, according to figures published by Kpler.

However, when compared tanker and dry bulk ship transits of the Suez Canal between January 2024 and November 2023 these reduced by just 23% and 27% respectively over the same period.

There would appear no resolution to the attacks on commercial shipping in the near term as the conflict in Gaza continues and Houthi rebels vowing to continue to strike at vessels with either Israeli links or cargoes.

This leaves it down to individual ship owners, operators, and charterers to weigh the risk to vessels, crew and cargoes of continuing to transit the Red Sea

 

Saudi Arabia: No Israel ties without recognition of independent Palestinian state

Saudi Arabia has clearly communicated to the United States that it will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without substantial progress on the Palestinian issue.

The Kingdom is demanding the recognition of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Additionally, it has called for an end to Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip and insists on the withdrawal of all Israeli occupation forces from the area as prerequisites for any future diplomatic engagement with Israel.

A statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs highlights that Saudi Arabia's position on the Palestinian issue is steadfast, emphasizing the necessity for the Palestinian people to obtain their legitimate rights.

This stance is particularly relevant in light of ongoing discussions between Saudi Arabia and the US concerning the Arab-Israeli peace process, further underscored by recent comments from the spokesperson for the US National Security Council.

This declaration is a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern politics, signifying Saudi Arabia's firm commitment to the Palestinian cause and setting clear conditions for any normalization of relations with Israel.

The Kingdom underscored that resolving the Palestinian issue is central to achieving lasting peace and stability in the region.

Saudi Arabia has also reaffirmed its appeal to the international community, especially urging the permanent member states of the Security Council that have not yet recognized the Palestinian state, to promptly do so.

The Kingdom advocates for the swift recognition of the Palestinian state within the 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital, aiming to empower the Palestinian people to attain their legitimate rights and to ensure a comprehensive and just peace for all.

MEI Outlines Expanded US Role to Counter Houthi Red Sea Strikes

The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Defense and Security Program published a memorandum, addressed to US President Joseph R. Biden, recommending an expanded role for the United States in countering the threat posed to global shipping by the targeting of vessels in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi militia. 

The memo, “A Strategy for Countering the Houthi Threat at Sea,” comes in response to the over 30 strikes conducted by Yemen’s Houthi militia on cargo and other vessels transiting the Red Sea since mid-November. It is co-authored by five members of MEI’s Defense and Security Program, including program Director Bilal Y. Saab, Vice Admiral (ret.) Kevin Donegan, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Mick Mulroy, Lieutenant General (ret.) Sam Mundy, and General (ret.) Joseph L. Votel.

The authors call for a continuation of retaliatory strikes by the United States and United Kingdom against Houthi leadership and infrastructure, but argue this strategy is insufficient, and proceed to offer several additional recommendations for the US to protect shipping and counter Iran’s malign activities in the region.

“For the first time in four decades, a core US interest in the region on which successive American presidents have based US Middle East policy — freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce — is increasingly at risk,” said Bilal Saab.

“In our memo to President Biden, we propose a strategy to effectively and sustainably counter the Houthi threat at sea.”

Among the recommendations is the establishment of an interagency effort led by US Central Command (CENTCOM) to deny the Houthis the ability to target Red Sea vessels, including through efforts to interdict Iran’s smuggling of arms to the group as well as through continued strikes on Houthi infrastructure and leadership.

The memo calls on the Biden administration to allow the US 5th Fleet Commander to assert “collective self-defense” of US flagged, owned, crewed, or operated vessels, or ships requesting US protection while transiting the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden. Additionally, the authors call for increased funding for added unmanned surveillance vessels (USV) to patrol Red Sea waters. 

Though calling for an expanded US role, the recommendations also draw attention to international tools at the United States’ disposal, such as partnerships with European and Arab allies, as well as re-investment in the UN Verification Inspection Mechanism (UNVIM) tasked with monitoring and facilitating commercial flows to Yemen.

Hamas still hounds Israeli forces in Gaza

According to Reuters, Palestinian gunmen kept up attacks against Israeli forces on Sunday in the Gaza, weeks after they were overrun by troops and tanks, a sign that Hamas still maintains some control.

Nearly four months into the war, there was persistent fighting in Gaza City in the north of the densely populated enclave and in Khan Younis to the south.

At the weekly Israeli cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said 17 of Hamas' 24 combat battalions had been dismantled. The rest, he said, were mostly in the southern Gaza Strip, including Rafah, on the enclave's Egyptian border. "We'll take care of them, too," he said, according to a statement from his office.

The prospect of a push into Rafah has piled pressure on the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians who have fled their homes elsewhere and are sheltering there.

An Israeli official told Reuters that the military would coordinate with Egypt, and seek ways of evacuating most of the displaced people northward, ahead of any Rafah ground sweep.

After conducting partial pullouts from Gaza City in the past few weeks that enabled some residents to return and pick through the rubble, Israeli forces have been mounting incursions. Netanyahu described these on Sunday as "mopping-up operations".

Covert Regime Change: An Integral Part of US Foreign Policy

A little deeper peep into the history shows that a principal instrument of US foreign policy is covert regime change. Under this an action is taken by the US government to bring down the government of the target country.

The key to covert operations of course is that these are secret and deniable by the US government. Even when the evidence comes to light, the US government rejects the authenticity of the evidence and the mainstream media generally ignore the story because it contradicts the official narrative.

The editors of mainstream outlets don’t want to peddle in conspiracy theories, or are simply happy to be the mouthpieces for officialdom; they give the US government a very wide berth for actual regime change conspiracies.

Covert regime change by the US is shockingly a routine. One authoritative study by Boston University professor Lindsay O’Rourke counts 64 covert regime change operations by the US during the Cold War (1947 and 1989), and in fact the number was far larger because she chose to count repeated attempts within one country as a single extended episode.

US regime change operations have remained frequent, such as when President Barrack Obama tasked the CIA (Operation Timber Sycamore) with overthrowing Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad. That covert operation remained secret until several years after the operation, and even then, was hardly covered by the mainstream media.

The great mantra of US foreign policy, and the activating principle of the CIA, is that a foreign leader is either with us or against us. Leaders who try to be neutral amongst the great powers are at dire risk of losing their positions, or even their lives, at US instigation, since the US does not accept neutrality.

Leaders seeking neutrality dating back to Patrice Lumumba (Zaire), Norodom Sihanouk (Cambodia), Viktor Yanukovych (Ukraine), and many others, have been toppled with the not so hidden hand of the US government.

Pakistan Stock Exchange witnesses 25%WoW decline in trading volume

During the week ended on February 02, 2024 activities at Pakistan Stock Exchange remained somewhat subdued. Overall trading volume declined 25%WoW, momentum largely driven by news-based events, particularly in the energy sector.

Monetary Policy decision came in as expected, with the central bank vowing to keeping rates unchanged, citing potential room for future easing, given that real interest rates are projected to remain positive over the next 12 months.

CPI for January was reported at 28.34%YoY, largely on account of positive energy and food price adjustments during the month.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves declined by US$55 million to US$8.22 billion. PKR continued to strengthen against the greenback, ending the week at PKR279.41/USD.

Motor Gasoline and Diesel prices were raised, attributed to higher shipping premiums due to increased risks associated with conflict in the Middle East.

Average trading volumes declined by 25%WoW to 312.8 million shares, from 415.8 million shares traded a week ago. The benchmark index lost 810 points during the week, depicting a 1.27%WoW decrease.

Other major news flows during the week were: 1) Pakistan asking China to rollover US$2 billion debt, 2) six-month budget deficit rising to 2.3% of GDP, 3) IMF lowering Pakistan’s GDP growth projection to 2% for current fiscal year, 4) persisting inflation challenges, and 5) rising Kibor.

Sector-wise, Exchange traded funds and Transport were amongst the top performers, whereas Automobile parts & Accessories, Chemical and OMC were amongst the worst performers.

While major net selling of US$9.7 million was recorded by Foreigner, Insurance companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$7.0 million.

Top performing scrips during the week were: MTL, OGDC, UNITY, MCB, and AKBL, while laggards included: YOUW, PTC, COLG, KEL, and PGLC.

Next week will be overshadowed by elections, and market participation is expected to remain subdued.

Following the successful completion of the elections, the market is anticipated to gain momentum.

Furthermore, circular debt settlement plan and industrial tariff rationalization plan, if passed through the IMF node, is likely to boost investors’ confidence.

Overall, analysts maintain a bullish outlook on the Banks, E&P, and OMC sectors, anticipating opportunities for potential earnings growth and attractive Dividend Yields.

We don’t know’ if Iran was involved in Jordan drone attack, says Austin

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Thursday admitted the US does not know if Iran was operationally involved in the drone attack in Jordan that killed three American soldiers. On the same day, US officials told CBS News that plans have been approved for strikes against Iranian personnel and facilities in Iraq and Syria.

When asked by a reporter how much Iran knew about the Jordan drone attack or if it was operationally involved, Austin said, “You know, we believe that this was done by an element of what is known as the Axis of Resistance, and these are Iranian proxy groups. And how much Iran knew or didn’t know, we — we don’t know, but it really doesn’t matter because Iran sponsors these groups.”

The US has said it believes the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iraqi militias, was responsible for the attack.

Kataib Hezbollah announced Tuesday it was suspending attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria, which was the result of pressure from the Iraqi government and Iran, making it clear Tehran does not seek more escalations in the region.

On Thursday, Reuters reported that Iran was reducing its presence in Syria after Israeli airstrikes on Damascus killed five members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on January 20. In December, Israel killed a senior IRGC officer who was based in Syria.

However, sources told Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen that it was not true that Iran scaled back its deployment of IRGC officers in Syria. But the sources indicated Iran was taking some steps for protection, with one saying that Iranian advisors have been asked to remain in Syria, but without their families.

Iran has vowed it would respond to any US attacks, whether they’re inside Iran or against Iranians elsewhere in the region. The US officials speaking to CBS said the plans to strike Iranians would be carried out over a number of days.

Austin told reporters that the US was planning a “multitiered response” but did not publicly say what the targets will be. We have the ability to respond a number of times depending on what the situation is, he said.