US and British forces no longer can pass Bab el-Mandeb Strait, declares Yemen

Yemen  has declared that the US and British forces can no longer pass through the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait as tensions grow in the region following US-led military strikes.

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the political bureau of the Ansarullah resistance movement, issued the warning on Monday after the United States and its allies bombed Yemen amid frustration with anti-Israel naval operations in the Red Sea.

He said that the Yemeni armed forces are developing their missile capabilities to bring new surprises soon.

“The American and British forces can no longer pass through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait,” a sea route chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and by extension the Indian Ocean, he added.

“The Axis of Resistance has regained control over the region. The Americans will regret their acts of aggression against Yemen and they will be a loser.”

The US and Britain, backed by Bahrain, Australia, Canada and the Netherlands, struck more than 60 targets at almost 30 locations in Yemen on Friday, killing five people and injuring six others.

On Saturday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that a follow-on action was conducted against a Yemeni radar facility by the Navy destroyer USS Carney using Tomahawk land attack missiles.

Bukhaiti said that the Yemeni forces are capable of confronting the Americans and that they will block the passage of US and Israeli ships through the Red Sea.

Earlier on Monday, the Yemeni forces hit a US-owned container ship with a ballistic missile off the coast of Yemen in the Gulf of Aden.

Centcom said that the attack on the Gibraltar Eagle caused no injuries or significant damage and that the vessel is continuing its journey.

The operation occurred two hours after another ballistic missile was fired toward the southern Red Sea.

Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Yemeni Armed Forces, said all American and British ships and warships participating in the aggression are hostile targets.

The US has offered untrammeled support for Israel during the onslaught that has so far killed more than 24,100 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and injured more than 60,834 others.

In solidarity with the Palestinians in besieged Gaza, the Yemeni armed forces have targeted ships in the Red Sea with owners linked to Israel or those going to and from ports in the occupied territories.

In response, the US has formed a military coalition against Yemeni forces in the Red Sea and endangered maritime navigation in the strategic waterway.

  

Iran strikes Mossad center in Iraqi Kurdistan

According to Tehran Times, on early Tuesday morning the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) fired barrages of ballistic missiles at Syrian positions of terrorists who were involved in the recent attacks inside Iran, as well as an Israeli Mossad espionage center in the Iraqi Kurdistan region.

The IRGC said the first missile strike targeted gathering places of commanders and main elements of recent terrorist attacks in the Iranian cities of Kerman and Rask.

The strike came after gathering points of the Daesh Takfiri terrorist group were identified in the occupied territories of Syria and destroyed with a number of ballistic missiles, the IRGC stated.

Daesh claimed responsibility for two suicide attacks that killed nearly 100 people and wounded 280 at a memorial service for top anti-terror commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani in the southeastern city of Kerman on January 03.

Last month, another terrorist attack hit a police station in the border city of Rask in the southeastern province of Sistan-Balouchestan, killing 11 police officers and injuring at least six others.

In a statement the IRGC announced that another missile strike has been launched at a main espionage center of the Israel's Mossad spy agency in the Iraqi Kurdistan region.

It said the strike was a sign of the IRGC’s full intelligence superiority over the Zionist regime's bases and activities in the region, Press TV reported.

The IRGC added that its missile strike on the Iraqi Kurdistan region has totally destroyed the Mossad center there.

The Mossad center was used to develop espionage operations and plan acts of terrorism across the region, especially in Iran, the IRGC said in its statement. 

The missile strike against the Mossad center, the statement said, was in retaliation for the recent assassinations of the resistance front’s commanders, especially those of the IRGC, by Israel.

General Seyed Razi Mousavi, a member of the IRGC serving as a military adviser in Syria, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike in a residential neighborhood in the suburbs of Damascus on December 25, 2023.

The IRGC also assured the Iranian nation that it will find the malicious terrorist groups that are active against Iran wherever they are and will punish them for their shameful deeds.

 

Iran registers highest oil output rise among OPEC members

A latest report released by the US Department of Energy stated that Iran has been the top OPEC member in terms of production increase in 2023, with an increase of 330,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) affiliated with the Department of Energy mentioned in its latest report that the total oil production of Iran was estimated at 2.87 million bpd at the end of 2023. Iran’s oil production stood at 2.54 million bpd in 2022.

The figures show that total OPEC oil production was 26.89 million bpd in 2023 which shows 630,000 barrels fall year on year. OPEC produced 27.52 million bpd in 2022.

This report has put Iran's oil production in the last month of last year at 3.17 million bpd.

Iran was the third-largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq in December 2023.

The 330,000-bpd increase in Iran’s 2023 oil production indicates that sanctions have been ineffective on Iran's oil industry.

Back in June 2023, Bloomberg reported that the production and export of Iranian oil in 2023 reached record highs since the country came under US sanctions more than five years ago.

The report published in late June 2023 stated that Iran was shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite US sanctions.

Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the US unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018.

A Reuters report, also said in June last year, that Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

A large chunk of Iran’s crude oil goes to China which is the world’s major importer of energy. Several European customers including Germany, Spain, and Bulgaria also imported oil from Iran.

Iran has not released official figures about its oil exports over the past years amid efforts to evade Washington’s illegal sanctions.

 

Iran and India reach final agreement on Chabahar port development

Iran and India have reached the final agreement for the development of Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port. The agreement to develop the strategic port was reached during a meeting between Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash and Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

In this meeting, the Iranian minister proposed the formation of a joint transportation committee to expand cooperation between the two sides and stated that the formation of this working committee will enable the activation of transit capacities and the use of the North-South corridor.

The Indian minister, for his part, emphasized his country's readiness for new investments in the fields of transportation and transit in Iran and invited the Iranian minister to visit India.

As Iran's only oceanic port on the Gulf of Oman, Chabahar Port holds great significance for the country both politically and economically. The country has taken serious measures for developing this port in order to improve the country’s maritime trade.

The port consists of Shahid Kalantari and Shahid Beheshti terminals, each of which has five berth facilities. The port is located in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan Province and is about 120 kilometers southwest of Pakistan’s Baluchistan Province, where the China-funded Gwadar port is situated.

In May 2016, India, Iran, and Afghanistan signed a trilateral agreement for the strategically-located Chabahar port to give New Delhi access to Kabul and Central Asia.

Later, based on a separate deal with Iran, India agreed to install and operate modern loading and unloading equipment including mobile harbor cranes in Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar.

Under the framework of the mentioned agreement, the Indian side has been operating in Shahid Beheshti port in the form of a build–operate–transfer (BOT) contract; this is the first time that such a contract has been implemented in one of the country's ports with 100 percent foreign investment.

The first consignment of Indian equipment for the development of port activities at Chabahar port worth US$8.5 million arrived in the southeastern port in January 2021.

Back in last July, India’s ambassador to Tehran said Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port is a golden opportunity for India to expand its economic ties.

“Chabahar's position in the expansion of trade exchanges in West Asia, Eurasia, and even Europe is unique,” the envoy said during a visit to the port.

 

Friends and foes want Netanyahu out

Israelis are still reeling from the killing of 1,200 people, most of them civilians and kidnapping of 240 more, including children and elderly. Stunned by the massive security failure, many want Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu out.

A poll published by the non-partisan Israel Democracy Institute on January 02 showed only 15% of Israelis want Netanyahu to remain in office after the war on Hamas ends, in line with previous surveys that have shown his popularity sharply down.

The embattled leader, who for years has brandished a Mr. Security image, shows no sign of wanting to leave.

"He's defiant. He's apparently taken a strategic decision to survive politically even this. I think it's a quixotic aim and sooner or later I believe that his own colleagues will tell him that his time is up," said political analyst Amotz Asa-El.

Political change looks unlikely in the near term while fighting in Gaza still rages. Netanyahu meanwhile, has vowed to pursue war until complete victory over Hamas with security chiefs warning combat will run through 2024. There are signs within Netanyahu's government that some are jockeying for position.

Reports of wrangling within the security cabinet have been leaked to the Israeli press and far-right police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, largely cut out of any war decisions, has taken swipes at Benny Gantz, Israel's former centrist defence chief who has joined Netanyahu's emergency government and war cabinet.

Anti-government street protests that had swept Israel for almost a year until the attack have been rekindled in recent weeks, calling for elections to be held. But those are still relatively small compared with the mass demonstrations of 2023.

"It's time for him to go home, said marketing manager Noa Weinpress, in Tel Aviv. "It should have happened on the eighth of October and if not, definitely now, after a hundred days."

Even some of Netanyahu's biggest fans seem resigned to the inevitable departure of a leader they still admire.

"I think he'll win the war and step down, with dignity," said Yossi Zroya, a member of Netanyahu's Likud Party and Shawarma stand owner in Ramla.

It was here Netanyahu was greeted with cheers of "King Bibi" 15 months ago at an election campaign event where he pledged to return security to the streets.

The sentiment was echoed by other supporters strolling through Ramla market. "Netanyahu is a genius. He's not to blame for what happened," said Rafi Kimchi, a diamond dealer visiting from nearby Herzliya. "But I think he's done. It's finished."

Eyeing disillusioned Likud voters, Ben-Gvir could be looking to set himself apart and leave the government ahead of a campaign, said Asa-El, who is research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.

Gantz, meanwhile, has seen his popularity soar in the polls, seen as a responsible man of the people. Numerous Likud veterans have long been vying to succeed Netanyahu, including Foreign Minister Israel Katz and lawmaker Yuli Edelstein.

Yossi Cohen, Israel's former spy chief and a frequent commentator on news shows in recent weeks, has also been floated as a successor, with some polls giving a party led by him around 12 of the Knesset's 120 seats.

"Nothing is out of the question," Cohen told N12's Uvda television show on Jan. 4. "I have not decided yet."

Asa-El predicted a "political bang" once fighting subsides, possibly a premature election. "There will be vast, big and multiple demonstrations if the politicians will try to drag their feet," he said.

 

 

IMF Executive Board Completes First Review of Stand-By Arrangement for Pakistan

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed the first review of Pakistan’s economic reform program supported by the IMF’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The Board’s decision allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 528 million (around US$700 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 1.422 billion (about US$1.9 billion).

Pakistan’s 9-month SBA was approved by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, for the amount of SDR 2.250 billion (about US$3 billion at the time of approval), aims to provide a policy anchor for addressing domestic and external balances and a framework for financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners.

The program is focused on: 1) implementation of the FY24 budget to facilitate Pakistan’s needed fiscal adjustment and ensure debt sustainability, while protecting critical social spending; 2) a return to a market-determined exchange rate and proper FX market functioning to absorb external shocks and eliminate FX shortages; 3) an appropriately tight monetary policy aimed at disinflation; and 4) further progress on structural reforms, particularly with regard to energy sector viability, SOE governance, and climate resilience.

Macroeconomic conditions have generally improved, with growth of 2% expected in FY24 as the nascent recovery expands in the second half of the year.

The fiscal position also strengthened in Q1FY24 achieving a primary surplus of 0.4% of GDP driven by overall strong revenues. Inflation remained elevated, although with appropriately tight policy, anticipated to decline to 18.5% by end-June 2024. Gross reserves increased to US$8.2 billion in December, up from US$4.5 billion in June 2023. The exchange rate remained broadly stable.

The current account deficit is expected to rise to around 1.5% of GDP in FY24 as the recovery takes hold. Assuming sustained sound macroeconomic policy and structural reform implementation, inflation should return to the SBP target and growth continue to strengthen over the medium term.

Following the Executive Board discussion, Antoinette Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director and Chair, made the following statement:

“Pakistan’s program performance under the Stand-By Arrangement has supported significant progress in stabilizing the economy following significant shocks in 2022-23. There are now tentative signs of activity picking-up and external pressures easing. Continued strong ownership remains critical to ensure the current momentum continues and stabilization of Pakistan’s economy becomes entrenched.

“The authorities’ strong revenue performance in Q1FY24 as well as federal spending restraint have helped to achieve a primary surplus in line with quarterly program targets. However, in the context of pressures, including from provincial spending, efforts at mobilizing revenues and ongoing non-priority spending discipline need to continue to ensure that the budgeted primary surplus and debt goals remain achievable. Going forward, broad-based reforms to improve the fiscal framework—mobilizing additional revenues particularly from non-filers and under-taxed sectors and improving public financial management—are required to create fiscal space for further social and development spending.

“The authorities took challenging steps to bring both electricity and natural gas prices closer to costs in 2023. Continuing with regularly-scheduled adjustments and pushing cost-side power sector reforms are vital to improving the sector’s viability and protecting fiscal sustainability.

“Inflation remaied high, affecting particularly the more vulnerable, and it was appropriate that the SBP maintains a tight stance to ensure that inflation returns to more moderate levels. Pakistan also needs a market-determined exchange rate to buffer external shocks, continue rebuilding foreign reserves, and support competitiveness and growth. In parallel, further action to address undercapitalized financial institutions and, more broadly, vigilance over the financial sector is necessary to support financial stability.

“Boosting jobs and inclusive growth in Pakistan requires continuing protection of the vulnerable through BISP and accelerating structural reforms, most notably around improving the business environment and leveling the playing field for investors, advancing the SOE reform agenda and safeguards related to the Sovereign Wealth Fund; strengthening governance and anti-corruption institutions; and building climate resilience.”

 

Iran serves notice on Pakistan for delay in gas pipeline project

Reportedly, Iran has served a third notice to Islamabad, renewing its intention to move the arbitration court for not laying the pipeline as part of the Iran-Pakistan gas line project. The project has been facing delays since 2014.

It is believed that the Interstate Gas System (ISGS) has funds to lay down the 81-kilometer pipeline to partially become part of the project. Now it is time Pakistan should come out of US hegemony and complete this gas pipeline at the earliest.

Iran had asked Pakistan in its second notice to construct a portion of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project in its territory by March 2024 or be ready to pay a penalty of US$18 billion.

Tehran had sent a notice to Islamabad in February 2019 to move an arbitration court for not laying down the pipeline in Pakistan’s territory in the stipulated period under the IP gas line project. It threatened to invoke the penalty clause of Gas Sales Purchase Agreement (GSPA). The GSPA was signed in 2009 for 25 years but the project could not take shape.

Pakistan has been arguing that it could not materialise the project in its territory because of the US sanctions imposed on Iran, a view which authorities in Tehran have never subscribed, saying the US sanctions are not justified. Iraq and Turkey have been using gas from Iran for long as they have managed waivers on the US sanctions.

It is on record that India got a waiver for importing petroleum products from. Pakistan has, meanwhile, tried to contact the US authorities many times to know whether the US curbs on Iran would have any impact on Pakistan if it becomes a part of the IP gas line but the country has not received any response from Washington.

The GSPA (Gas Sales Purchase Agreement) was signed under the French law and the Paris-based Arbitration Court is the forum to decide disputes that arise between the two countries. The French arbitration court does not recognize the US sanctions.

It is believed that the top authorities in Pakistan have carved out a strategy under which it has been decided to partially implement the IP gas line project by laying down an 81-kilometer pipeline from Gwadar to the Iranian border, a point where Iran has already laid down its part of the pipeline from the gas field. This will help Pakistan avoid the expected penalty of US$18 billion if Iran moves the Arbitration Court.”

As per the plan, the 81-kilometer pipeline will connect Gwadar with the IP gas line project and the gas will be used in Gwadar initially. If the US does not invoke any kind of sanctions, then the pipeline will be extended from Gwadar to Nawabshah. If Washington imposes sanctions, then Pakistan will have valid reasons to abandon the project and this is how it would escape the US$18 billion penalty and arbitration court proceedings. To this effect, top-level leadership of both the countries is in constant touch at the ministerial level on a strategy to implement the project and the prime minister will be briefed by the authorities very soon and a go-ahead for the strategy will be sought.

The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has also been sensitized over the latest notice from Iran and the strategy carved out by the authorities concerned.

According to top sources in SIFC, Pakistan has to show seriousness by March 2024 towards the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline by laying down the 80-kilometer pipeline from Gwadar to the Iranian border or it would face the US$18 billion penalty.