Bangladesh: Opposition Fears Sanctions

Politicians, economists and analysts on Saturday said that the ruling Awami League (AL) will be responsible mainly if any Western sanctions or restrictions are imposed on Bangladesh as the government remains largely indifferent to their repeated calls for upholding democracy and human rights.

On Friday, making an oblique reference to the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said that the party is plotting to create a famine situation in February–March with the support of some foreign countries.

Earlier, in a recent statement AL General Secretary, Obaidul Qauder said that the BNP is relentlessly conspiring to have sanctions imposed against the people of the country with false and fabricated information.

Former President of Communist Party of Bangladesh Mujahiul Islam Selim told New Age that the AL government has no wish for holding inclusive and credible elections and it will be responsible if any sanctions are imposed for undermining the democratic electoral process and violating human rights as well.

The ruling AL and all other political parties and the people as well know that no free, fair and credible general elections can be held under a partisan government, said Selim.

Moreover, the AL also knows that they will invariably lose if a free, fair and credible general election is held, said the senior politician.

For this they became eager to hold a false and farcical general election, Selim added.

The government could still hold an inclusive general election by following the special constitutional clause and convening parliamentary sessions to pass the bill of caretaker government, he said.

Referring to the Prime Minister’s complaint that Bangladesh may face a famine after the general election, Selim said that such a comment can be a foreboding sign for the country and the wrong policies of the government would be responsible for that.

BNP standing committee member Abdul Moyeen Khan said, “If this were to be true that the BNP is responsible for the Western sanctions imposed on certain Bangladeshis who are undermining a free and fair election process then this would pre-suppose that BNP is running the decision making process of the Western Governments ! The absurdity of such Awami allegations is obvious to everyone and doesn’t deserve any consideration whatsoever.”

“The fact of the matter is, the forthcoming elections have already been rendered into a sham election by way of publicly horse trading the parliament seats not only between their partners but also with their domesticated opposition aspirants well before the actual election has even taken place. Such an election caricature cannot be acceptable to any democracy loving people whether inside or outside the country,” he observed.

Former cabinet secretary Ali Imam Majumder told New Age that if any sanctions are imposed on Bangladesh from the Western countries, alongside economic impact it would be shameful for the nation.

Former diplomat Humayun Kabir said that accusing the opposition for possible sanctions is nothing but a political rhetoric.

 The European Union and United States are major markets for Bangladesh’s garment sector. If any sanctions are to be imposed on this sector, it will be dangerous for Bangladesh.

Economists said that the country’s foreign exchange reserve and import payments would be badly affected, if any kinds of economic sanctions are imposed on the country in such a struggling economic situation.

Former World Bank Dhaka office chief economist Zahid Hussain said that any kinds of sanctions or trade penalties would create impact on the country as the economy has already been struggling due to shortage of dollars.

‘If any sanctions affect the country’s export-oriented industries, mainly the readymade garment industry, it would create an adverse impact on the country’s foreign exchange reserve and employment as well,’ he added.

Asked about the risk of famine by March 3 and whether the government has taken adequate measures to tackle such a crisis, he said that the government has to disseminate what kind of measures it has taken to overcome the situation.

Dhaka University economics professor MM Akash said that any kind of economic sanctions or penalties would create dollar shortages to lead to a crisis in the imported goods.

The chance of famine is little if the government takes adequate early measures as the country’s agricultural sector is quite strong. The poor people will not be affected much. But, the middle and higher income groups will suffer the brunt of crisis as they would not be able to use imported goods due to dollar shortages.

On September 22, the US Department of State said that they had started imposing visa restrictions on individuals involved in undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.

Under this policy, the US said that it would be able to restrict the issuance of visas for any Bangladeshi individuals believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.

 

Dismay over US veto on Gaza ceasefire

Arab and Muslim ministers, led by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan, expressed their resentment over the United States' use of the veto, preventing a UNSC resolution for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza during an official meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The ministerial committee, assigned by the Joint Arab-Islamic Extraordinary Summit, emphasized their demand for the United States to take responsibility and necessary actions to compel the Israel to immediate cease fire.

They reiterated their united stance against the continued Israeli aggression on the Palestinian people in Gaza, renewing the call for an immediate and comprehensive cessation of hostilities, ensuring the protection of civilians in accordance with international humanitarian law.

The committee members expressed their rejection of any forced displacement operations carried out by the occupation. They underlined the importance of adherence to international law and humanitarian law, committing to confronting such actions on all levels.

Renewing their commitment to a genuine political climate leading to a two-state solution, the committee members emphasized the establishment of a Palestinian State along the June 4, 1967 borders in line with relevant international resolutions.

They rejected any attempts to fragment the Palestinian cause and discussed the future of Gaza separately from the broader Palestinian issue.

Yemeni Resistance declares war against Israel

Few days after the outset of Israel’s savage invasion of Gaza, Yemeni Resistance declared war against Israel after the ultimatum it had set for cessation of aggression expired and Israel Occupation Forces kept intensifying the bombardment, claiming lives of thousands of Palestinian children and women.

The Yemeni Resistance’s war declaration was initially interpreted as its intention to target Israeli facilities within the range of its known conventional mid-range armaments in south of Occupied Palestine.

Speculation to a large extent, were focused on the ability of Israel’s AD systems and those of its allies in war against Gaza, especially US, but few were ready for what Yemeni Resistance had in sleeves.

After openly announcing that Israeli military and cargo ships are now the legitimate military targets, the Resistance in Yemen started sending warning signs to the Israeli ships which soon turned into a full-scale economic war against the Regime’s previously considered safe corridors.

Amid the conflict, the Yemeni Resistance combatants successfully boarded a cargo ship belonging to one of the most renowned Israeli merchants, directing it to a port in Yemen.

This persuaded nearly all Israeli shipping companies and those associated with them to change the shipping direction and avoid passage through the Red Sea which economically serves as the most convenient maritime transportation route for the Zionist Regime; an interim remedy which has increased the shipping costs drastically.

Since then, many have articulated their contemplations about the possible future of maritime transportation for Israel, as Yemeni Resistance does not seem keen towards the idea of letting Israel’s criminal aggressions go unpunished.

For instance, an Israeli media published a report describing the soaring costs of maintaining security for Israeli shipping companies and the scenarios before them in case the Resistance in Yemen would not accept loosening the rope just for a little.

In an article titled “The Israeli shipping companies are requesting expanded military protection within the Middle East [West Asia] routes”, the outlet discloses that although attacks against Israeli cargo ships are not new, but the scale and intensity is.

Recent attacks increases the fear over the threat Iran inflicts on the Straight of Hormoz; a narrow passage which separates Iran from the Persian Gulf countries and serves as a major bottleneck for export of gas and oil in the global scale.

Although the article has undertaken the same shabby strategy all Israeli media and officials resort to whenever they see the chance (that Israel’s problem is West’s problem, and Iran is the most important problem of Israel), but there are some interesting talking points in between the lines of the piece which can be considered indicators of a mentality trending among Israeli/ US decision makers.

The article quotes McNally, a former adviser to the President of the US, saying “There is a %30 chance of substantial perturbation of energy supplies in the region”, which is not neglect able.

Although Iran and the US are not interested in a direct confrontation, McNally believes, but the two sides might find engaging in unintended conflicts inevitable, which means widespread disruption in %40 of global oil trade just in regards with what might happen in the Straight of Hormoz. To emphasize the intensity of the situation, McNally also mentions this is besides the fact that one tenth of the maritime oil trade is done through the red sea.

To make sure that all westerners are on board, even those who are not clever enough, the article makes is explicitly clear that this is not just Israel’s problem, but all Europe’s problem.

The writer quotes the CEO of an advising company in field of maritime transportation, saying “The Red Sea routes are important, especially for the Europeans as they receive all of the oil and LNG they’ve purchased from the Middle East [West Asia] through the Red Sea”.

The Yemeni Resistance has time and again insisted that its targets are the Zionist Regime’s assets, not those of any country, and has proven this point in practice as well.

Nevertheless, it’s unlikely to see the westerners, especially Europeans, realizing that only the Israeli assets are at stake here. It is only a matter of time before we see the European politicians chewing rhetoric about how the Yemeni Resistance should be confronted; which doesn’t matter anyway.  
 

 

Exercise of veto leaves the US diplomatically isolated

The exercise of veto by the United States has left Washington diplomatically isolated on the 15-member council. Thirteen members voted in favor of the draft resolution put forward by the United Arab Emirates, while Britain abstained.

Deputy US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood said, "We do not support this resolution's call for an unsustainable ceasefire that will only plant the seeds for the next war."

The United States and Israel oppose a ceasefire, saying it would only benefit Hamas, which Israel has vowed to annihilate.

Palestinian UN envoy Riyad Mansour told the council the vote means that millions of Palestinian lives hang in the balance.

Ezzat El-Reshiq, a member of Hamas' political bureau, condemned the US veto as inhumane.

Israel's UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan said in a statement, "A ceasefire will be possible only with the return of all the hostages and the destruction of Hamas."

Has Hamas committed horrendous mistake?

Countries of all stripes – whether developed or underdeveloped, democratic or authoritarian – have been known to commit strategic military miscalculations. The United States, for example, won decisive wars against developed countries such as Germany and Japan, but blundered in wars against much lesser powers like Vietnam in the 1970s and Iraq and Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks.

Strategic military miscalculation usually results in the collapse of authoritarian regimes. The decision of Argentina’s military junta to invade the Falkland Islands in 1982 led to its defeat in the war against Britain and the fall of General Leopoldo Galtieri’s regime.

Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 led to a military disaster for the Iraqi army following Operation Desert Storm, paving the way for the 2003 US invasion of the country and the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Successful countries eventually accept the need to revamp their political systems, initiate democratic reforms and champion world peace.

It took Germany, whose army fought exceptionally well operationally and tactically, two world wars to metamorphose.

It took Japan’s disastrous defeat precipitated by the Pearl Harbor attack to convince Tokyo to change. Under the US direction, the two countries transformed into full-fledged democracies.

Since the turn of the 20th century, political leaders, heads of state and political movements in the Arab world have also shown a propensity for massive miscalculation.

Hamas October 07 attack is a prime example, but it was precipitated by several other cases that have shaped the region since World War I.

Hamas’ rationale for last month’s attack stemmed from its conviction that Israel, with United States backing and Arab acquiescence, intended to eliminate any possibility of Palestinian statehood.

By taking Israeli hostages, it also intended to secure the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners being held in Israeli jails, knowing that Israel has in the past been willing to conduct prisoner swaps.

In 2011, Israel released more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners to secure the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier detained by Hamas for more than five years.

 However, Hamas failed to consider the likelihood that Israel’s war Cabinet would launch an unprecedented air and ground campaign following its attack, the scale of which recalled the genocidal horrors ingrained in Israel’s collective consciousness.

Hamas expected Israel to plead for negotiations to secure the freedom of some 240 Israeli captives. Images from Gaza on October 07 showed Hamas guerrillas ecstatic about the possibility of a massive prisoner swap. But Israel instead unleashed a withering military campaign.

Moreover, Hamas did not inform Iran and its regional allies in advance about its plans. It assumed Hezbollah would join the fighting from southern Lebanon and that Iraqi militias in Syria would engage Israel from the Golan Heights.

Hezbollah’s unenthusiastic involvement in the war has cost it far more casualties than Israel and did not relieve even the slightest pressure on embattled Hamas.

Hamas was left stunned by its allies’ tepid response; having previously believed its attack would transform the Middle East and pave the path toward establishing a Palestinian state.

An extraordinary summit of Arab and Islamic countries held last month in Saudi Arabia resulted only in generic statements of support for the Palestinians and demands for the immediate cessation of hostilities.

Hamas counted on the outbreak of a third intifada, but Israel’s preemptive raids against West Bank activists ruled out this possibility as well.

Arab leaders, engrossed in a distorted worldview, tend to see the world through the prism of their domestic politics, often failing to comprehend the complexity of international relations.

Arabs in high office are autocrats who do not answer to anybody else, driving them to make fateful decisions.

Many Arab leaders live in echo chambers, making decisions premised on faulty assumptions, inattentive to how their antagonists might respond. The consequences have played out time and again, including today in Gaza.

Israel intensifies Gaza strikes

Israel sharply ramped up strikes on the Gaza Strip, pounding the length of the Palestinian enclave and killing hundreds in a new, expanded phase of the war.

The Israeli military said on Friday it had struck more than 450 targets in Gaza from land, sea and air over the past 24 hours - the most since a truce collapsed last week and about double the daily figures typically reported since then.

With the vast majority of Gazans now displaced and unable to access any aid, hospitals overrun and food running out, the main UN agency there said society was on the verge of a full-blown collapse.

Residents and the Israeli military both reported intensified fighting in both northern areas, where Israel had previously said its troops had largely completed their tasks last month, and in the south where they launched a new assault this week.

Gaza's health ministry reported 350 people killed on Thursday, bringing the death toll from Israel's two-month campaign in Gaza to more than 17,170, with thousands more missing and presumed buried under rubble. More strikes were reported on Friday morning in Khan Younis in the south, the Nusseirat camp in the centre and Gaza City in the north.

Israel launched its campaign to annihilate the Hamas that rules Gaza alleging Hamas killing 1,200 people and seizing more than 240 hostages.

Since then, the vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people have been driven from their homes, many forced to flee three or four times, with only the belongings they can carry.

With the fighting now extended across both halves of the Gaza Strip at the same time, residents say it has become almost impossible to find refuge.

Hamas reported the most intense clashes with Israeli forces were taking place in the north in Gaza City's Shejaia district, as well as in the south in Khan Younis, where Israelis reached the heart of the enclave's second-biggest city on Wednesday.

The Israeli military's Arabic-language spokesman posted to social media that troops were operating forcefully against Hamas and terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip, especially in the Khan Younis area and the northern Strip.

Reuters journalists in the southern Gaza Strip have seen dead and wounded overrunning the main Nasser hospital in Khan Younis, where there was no room on the floor on Friday for arriving patients sprawled across bloodsmeared tiles.

Reuters was unable to enter other parts of the enclave but reached residents by telephone. With the fighting now in all directions, there was no place left to flee.

Chinese exports grow first time in six months

Chinese exports grew for the first time in six months in November, suggesting factories in the world's second-largest economy are attracting buyers through discount pricing to get over a prolonged slump in demand.

Mixed manufacturing data for November has kept alive calls for further policy support to shore up growth but also raised questions about whether predominantly negative sentiment-based surveys have masked improvements in conditions.

Exports grew 0.5% from a year earlier in November, customs data showed on Thursday, as compared to a 6.4% fall in October. Imports fell 0.6%, dashing forecasts for a 3.3% increase and swinging from a 3.0% jump last month.

"The improvement in exports is broadly in line with market expectations... sequential growth in China's exports in the past few months has strengthened," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. "There are green shoots in other Asian countries' export data as well in recent months."

The Baltic Dry Index, a bellwether gauge of global trade, climbed to a three year high in November, supported by improved demand for industrial commodities, particularly from China.

South Korean exports, another gauge of the health of global trade, rose for a second monthin November, buoyed by chip exports, which snapped 15 months of declines.

Trade with China's major peers also painted a rosy picture, with exports to United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all up on October.

China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) last week showed new export orders shrank for a ninth consecutive month, while a private sector survey highlighted the struggles of factory owners to attract overseas buyers for a fifth month.

"While the level of export volumes hit a fresh high, (they were) supported by exporters reducing prices," noted Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

"We doubt this robustness will persist," Huang cautioned, "as exporters won't be able to continue cutting prices for much longer."

Factory gate prices in the official PMI contracted for a second month in November, while input costs expanded for a fifth straight month.

Still, some analysts point to quicker-than-expected growth in the third quarter and a run of mostly upbeat data from October to argue that recent hard data paints a less gloomy picture of the economic health of the Asian giant than the sentiment-based surveys. The hard data also suggest the support measures trickling out of Beijing since June have had some effect, they say.

"The data shows overseas demand is stronger than we thought and domestic demand is weaker than we thought," said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. "The biggest export items are still electrical machinery and cars, so demand in Europe and Russia will have bolstered outbound shipments."

Analysts say it is too early to tell whether the recent policy support will be enough to shore up domestic demand and how sustainable any uptick in overseas demand is, with property, unemployment and weak household and business confidence threatening a sustainable rebound at home.

The International Monetary Fund in November upgraded its China growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 by 0.4% percentage points each, but that came from a lower base. And Moody's on Tuesday slapped a downgrade warning on China's A1 credit rating.

The Chinese markets seemed to reflect that cautiousness, with the yuan easing against the dollar after the data, while country's blue chip CSI300 stock index fell 0.44% and Hong Kong's Hang's Hang Seng lost 1.46%.

China's crude oil imports in November fell 9.2% year-on-year, the first annual decline since April as high inventory levels and poor manufacturing activity took their toll on demand for products such as diesel. But iron ore imports climbed slightly last month.

"While export demand improved, it is unclear if exports can contribute as a growth pillar into next year," Pinpoint Asset Management's Zhang warned.

"The European and United States economies are cooling. China still needs to depend on domestic demand as the main driver for growth in 2024."