Saturday, 19 August 2023

If ECOWAS takes military action against Niger

The West African regional bloc says it has agreed on a "D-Day" for military intervention in Niger to restore the deposed President Mohamed Bazoum.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) made the declaration at the end of a two-day meeting of West African army chiefs in Ghana's capital Accra, where they have been carefully discussing the logistics and strategy for a possible use of force in Niger.

ECOWAS has not disclosed a date for when a military intervention will take place, saying it will resort to the use of force if diplomatic efforts fail. The 15-member bloc has insisted that it will not be holding endless talks with the military rulers. The bloc did, however, say that any military action would be considered as a last resort.

"We are ready to go anytime the order is given," ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Abdel-Fatau Musah said during the closing ceremony. 

"The D-Day is also decided, which we are not going to disclose."

Musah has said that a peaceful resolution remains the bloc's preferred option in the path ahead. 

"As we speak we are still readying (a) mediation mission into the country, so we have not shut any door... (but) we are not going to engage in endless dialogue."

There was no immediate response from the defiant military rulers in Niger, who have insisted they will defend their country against any foreign aggression. 

Critics have accused the United States and France of fueling the prospects of war to maintain their military presence in Niger. They also accuse the US of driving a wedge between Niger and its neighbor Nigeria. 

Niger’s military officers deposed President Bazoum on July 26 and have strongly defied calls from ECOWAS and Western leaders, in particular the United States and former colonial power France, to reinstate Bazoum, prompting ECOWAS to order a standby force to be assembled.

The military in Niger has said they have gained enough evidence to prosecute Bazoum for high treason and undermining the security of the country. 

“The Nigerian government has so far gathered enough evidence to prosecute the deposed President and his local and foreign accomplices before the competent national and international bodies for high treason and undermining the internal and external security of Niger,” a Colonel-Major said on state TV. 

The new military leaders have formed a new government with a civilian prime minister. 

They have also slammed former colonial power France for meddling in their country’s domestic affairs and fueling instability while demanding all French forces leave their country immediately. 

Critics have accused the United States of using the pretext of fighting extremist militants to plunder Niger’s natural resources, such as its vast uranium, which is used for nuclear energy and amounts to around seven percent of the world reserves, as well as the country’s oil reserves. 

The military leaders have accused the United States and France, both of whom have military bases stationed in Niger – in an agreement with deposed President Bazoum – of increasing insecurity and stability in their country. 

There have been demonstrations in support of the military, with protesters holding up signs against France and ECOWAS; but the African bloc has refused to take the use of force off the table. 

"We've already agreed and fine-tuned what will be required for the intervention," Musah said, declining to share how many troops would be deployed, which states will contribute and other strategic information.

According to ECOWAS, most of its 15 member states are prepared to contribute to the joint force with the exception of those already under military rule such as Mali and Burkina Faso as well as Guinea and Cape Verde.

In a sign of how fragile the situation could become, Mali and Burkina Faso have stated that any military intervention in Niger would be considered a “declaration of war” against their nations. This could see a military coalition between the three nations that could drag any ECOWAS military intervention beyond Niger’s borders. 

Neighboring state Algeria has also expressed its opposition to the use of force. Russia has taken a similar position. 

Some analysts have pointed out that ECOWAS’s credibility is at stake because it had warned that it would not tolerate any further coups in West Africa. 

"The decision is that the coup in Niger is one coup too many for the region, and we are putting a stop to it at this time, we are drawing the line in the sand," Musah said.

Any armed intervention would spell further turmoil for West Africa's impoverished Sahel region, which is already battling a decade-old militancy and a deepening hunger crisis.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue. 

An Islamic delegation from Nigeria met with Niger’s military last week, in a move that was warmly welcomed by peace advocates. 

The United Nations special envoy for West Africa and the Sahel, Leonardo Santos Simao, held talks with the military’s new civilian prime minister Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine on Friday. 

Simao said in comments broadcast on Niger's state television that he wanted to listen to the coup leader’s point of view "to study together a way for the country to return as quickly as possible to constitutional normality and legality too. We are convinced that it is always possible with dialogue."

The prospects of another conflict erupting in West Africa, this time between African states, could make the volatile region very vulnerable. 

Regional nations are already battling extremist militants with links to Daesh and al-Qaeda terrorist groups in the Sahel. 

Experts say the regional states themselves should take the leading role in defeating these terrorists, who have not only wreaked havoc and insecurity but also brought about a humanitarian crisis. 

Mali and Burkina Faso have already kicked out the armed forces of former French colonial power, saying the presence of the foreign forces only increased instability on their land. 

Analysts have pointed to the evidence so far that the presence of Western powers such as the United States and France has done little to bring security to the region. 

They also argue that France and the US are seeking to drive a wedge between Niger and its neighbors, especially the African powerhouse Nigeria.  

A point of view is also shared by the local population who have taken to the streets in large numbers in support of the military officers in Niger. 

There are also widespread fears that any military intervention would spell a wider humanitarian and refugee crisis, with many experts arguing that the last thing West Africa needs right now is another fresh armed conflict.

 

US proxy war in Ukraine: Keeping Moscow preoccupied to orchestrate moves against China

The United States always wanted to lock Moscow into a costly military quagmire with the goal of weakening Russia, and to this day it openly boasts about all this war is doing to advance US interests.

United States has kept this war going, using Ukrainian bodies as a giant sponge to soak up as many expensive military explosives as possible to drain Russian coffers while advancing US energy interests in Europe. The sole purpose is to keep Moscow preoccupied while the United States orchestrates its next move against China.

Last month The Washington Post’s David Ignatius wrote an article explaining why westerners shouldn’t feel gloomy about how things are going in Ukraine, writing the following about how much this war is doing to benefit US interests overseas.

“Meanwhile, for the United States and its NATO allies, these 18 months of war have been a strategic windfall, at relatively low cost (other than for the Ukrainians). The West’s most reckless antagonist has been rocked. NATO has grown much stronger with the additions of Sweden and Finland. Germany has weaned itself from dependence on Russian energy and, in many ways, rediscovered its sense of values. NATO squabbles make headlines, but overall, this has been a triumphal summer for the alliance.”

Everyone who has been supporting this horrifying proxy war should have that paragraph tattooed on their forehead

Bolton urges Congress to take closer look at cipher

The US Congress should look at the allegedly leaked cipher about ousting of Imran Khan, former prime minister of Pakistan, when it returns from summer recess, said a former US national security adviser John Bolton.

In an interview with VoA broadcasting service, recorded this week, Bolton said he worries about the Biden administration’s foreign policy about South Asia because it’s not clearly defined.

Asked if the language used in the cipher was usual for a State Department official, the former Trump and Bush administrations official said he saw the report published by The Intercept news site and noted that it was about an effort to get Pakistan’s support against Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

“I would be stunned if that’s exactly what they said. It would be remarkable for the State Department, under any administration, but particularly under the Biden administration, to be calling for Imran Khan’s overthrow.”

The purported cipher that the Pakistan Embassy in Washington sent to Islamabad in March last year, contained the embassy’s account of a meeting between US State Department officials, including Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu, and Pakistani envoy Asad Majeed Khan.

It quotes Lu as telling the Pakistani envoy, “I think if the no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister succeeds, all will be forgiven in Washington because the Russia visit is being looked at as a decision by the Prime Minister. Otherwise, I think it will be tough going ahead.”

Bolton said even if the text published by The Intercept was close to being true, it would be a problem. So, I hope that when Congress comes back from summer recess in early September, perhaps they can take a look at that and find out how accurate that report was. 

In reply to another question, Bolton said Biden administration officials don’t know what their strategic imperatives are. And it’s been confused and inarticulate on the situation in Pakistan.

Explaining his position on the current political situation in Pakistan, he said, “I do not agree with Imran khan on everything he has ever said, and he doesn’t agree with me but when the military take it to the point of dismantling a legitimate political party (and) putting … an elected leader like Imran khan in jail for no apparent reason, they are contributing to delegitimizing their own institution.”

Commenting on the demand by some US lawmakers that Washington should raise this issue with Pakistani authorities, Bolton urged the Biden administration to take a clear position before the terrorists, China and Russia take advantage of the situation.

 

Iran requires US$9 billion for developing Makran Coast Line

The Secretary of Makran Coast Development Council said developing the cost line requires three years of work and US$9 billion of investment, Fars News Agency reported.

Speaking to Fars, Hossein Dehghan said the need for developing the cost line came under the spotlight nearly 15 years ago when stressed by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

“Over the past 15 years, important measures have been taken in this regard, however, it has not been enough,” Dehghan noted.

According to the official, distance from the center and lack of infrastructure have been the two main obstacles in the way of attracting investment in the mentioned region.

Makran is a historical region in Iran that runs from mountains west of Jask all the way to parts of Pakistan's Baluchistan province in the southwest along the Sea of Oman.

Iran has recently constructed significant nautical and commercial infrastructure in a number of Makran districts, particularly at Chabahar port, which serves as a vital trade route between the Indian Ocean and landlocked nations in Central Asia.

Earlier in June, the head of Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) announced a plan for attracting over US$390 million of domestic investment in the Makran Coast.

Ali-Akbar Safaei said that so far, the private sector has invested more than US$215 million in the region and the country’s small ports.

He also noted that good measures have been taken in the foreign investment sector, which will hopefully bear results soon.

Back in November 2022, President Ebrahim Raisi called for a quick development of the south and southeastern shores of Iran, namely the Makran coastline.

Raisi stated that plans for the development of the Makran coasts by the government and the private sector might assist the comparatively underdeveloped region.

Friday, 18 August 2023

Saudi crown prince meets Iranian foreign minister

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on Friday in the highest-level talks since the countries reconciled in March after years of bitter rivalry that destabilized the region.

The unscheduled meeting in Jeddah came a day after Amirabdollahian had declared ties between the countries were on the right track as he met his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan.

After the meeting, Iran's semi-official news agency Tasnim reported Abdollahian as saying the de facto Saudi ruler had accepted his invitation to visit Tehran.

The Saudi crown prince has pushed to reorient Saudi foreign policy in recent years amid troubles in its historically close relationship with the United States.

"Discussions were frank, beneficial and productive," Abdollahian said in a social media post after meeting the prince, adding that the countries agree on the security and development of all in the region.

Footage of the meeting on Iranian state media showed Prince Mohammed and Amirabdollahian smiling as they spoke, while Prince Faisal and the Iranian delegation looked on.

Rivalry between Iran's revolutionary, Shi'ite Muslim leaders and Saudi Arabia's Sunni ruling family dominated the Middle East for years as they competed for influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain amid a wave of sectarian bloodshed.

However, China brokered a rapprochement in March this year leading to a resumption of full diplomatic relations, which Saudi Arabia had broken off in 2016 when protesters attacked its Tehran embassy over Riyadh's execution of a prominent Shi'ite cleric.

Prince Faisal visited Tehran in June and said he hoped Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi would visit the kingdom at the appropriate time.

After years of rivalry, and with some of the main regional arenas for their competition more stable than in previous years, both sides have reason to change tack.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wanted to end political and economic isolation pushed by the United States and saw new relations with Saudi Arabia as a way to do so, Iranian officials have said.

Saudi Arabia had meanwhile lost confidence in United States commitment to shared regional security concerns and wanted to bolster ties with China, which has retained good relations with Iran. This month it succeeded in getting China to attend a diplomatic meeting on Ukraine that Beijing had earlier avoided.

Prince Faisal also spoke by phone with US Secretary General Antony Blinken, with the pair discussing more coordination to boost security and stability in the Middle East region, Saudi state media reported on Friday.

 

 

Saudi Arabia discusses defense cooperation

Saudi Assistant Minister of Defense Eng. Talal Al-Otaibi discussed various aspects of defense cooperation with senior officials of Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. The discussions were held on the sidelines of the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security.

Eng. Al-Otaibi, headed the delegation of the Saudi Ministry of Defense that participated in the conference. More than 800 delegates from 76 countries and six international organizations took part in the conference.

They included 26 defense ministers and 16 deputy defense ministers and chiefs of general staff in addition to senior defense and security policy makers from various countries.

Delegations from 12 more countries, led by department chiefs, as well as ambassadors and military attaches accredited to Russia also attended.

The conference aimed to discuss modern military challenges and threats, and to enhance the benefit and keep abreast of all that is proposed by decision-makers and experts interested in the fields of politics, defense and security in the world.

On the sidelines of the conference, Assistant Defense Minister Al-Otaibi met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin. During the meeting, they discussed ways to enhance defense cooperation between the two friendly countries.

A number of issues of common concern also figured in the talks.

During the meetings, they reviewed the bilateral relations between the Kingdom and friendly countries in the defense fields, and ways to develop and enhance them.

Al-Otaibi also met with Minister of Defense Li Shangfu, head of the Chinese delegation; Secretary General and Deputy Minister of Defense Hammood Uz Zaman Khan, head of the Pakistani delegation; and Deputy Chief of the General Staff Brig. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, the head of the Iranian delegation.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange returning to business as usual

The week ended on August 18, 2023 witnessed investors’ sentiments swaying in either direction owing to major developments on the political front. The caretaker set up was finally announced with Anwaarul Haq Kakar taking charge as Prime Minister and announcement of portfolios of 24-member cabinet. However, general elections seem to be delayed owing to higher population numbers requiring fresh constituency delimitations.

The first gift of the interim government was hike in fuel prices, said to be in line with global oil price hikes and IMF SBA requiring fiscal discipline. Further, hikes in power tariffs added to an already high inflationary environment, coupled with high interest rates have been hurting industrial output particularly the textile sector, which has been hit with added gas curtailments.

The latest LSMI numbers stand at 114.83 for FY23, indicating a drop of 10.26%YoY. Further, PKR remained under pressure against the US$ with the biggest issue being the spread between interbank and open market rate, at PKR295.78/US$, down 2.46%WoW).

The benchmark index opened the week at 48,424 points, and closing at 48,218 points, down 205 points or 0.43%WoW.

Average daily traded volume was recorded at 175 million shares, as compared to 255 million shares a week ago, down by 31.50%WoW.

The other key news driving the market during the week included: 1) RDA inflows exceeded US$6.5 billion, with accounts crossing 600,000 in number; 2) K-Electric recovering PKR24.5 billion from consumers, through PKR1.52/unit surcharge imposed; 3) Federal Government debt spiked by 21.38%YoY to PKR60.8 trillion in the last month of last financial year; 4) Debt servicing reached PKR5.8 trillion; 5) Pakistan’s total debt, liabilities surged to PKR77 trillion at the end of last financial year; 5) Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank were up by US$12 million to US$8 billion; 6) SNGPL based AGL and Fatima Fert (Sheikhupura plant) gas supply extended to March 2024 to address urea production shortfalls and 7)PRL dismissed news regarding inability to manage Russian crude oil processing.

Buying was witnessed in Automobile Parts & Accessories, emerging as the top performer recording gains, whilst Woolen saw major selling. Major selling was recorded by Banks/DFI with a net sell of US$3.89 million. Insurance companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$4.05 million.

Top performing scrips during the week were: SYS, PABC, THALL, JDWS, and AIRLINK, while laggards included LOTCHEM, FCEPL, CNERGY, ENGRO, and BOP.

Volume leaders were: YOUW; OGDC; DGKC; PPP; KHYT.

Analysts anticipate the market to remain on positive trajectory owing to a safe passage towards the caretaker setup. However, due to the IMF’s strict conditions with regards to fiscal discipline and a move towards the general elections, market performance may remain volatile with some cushion coming from bilateral/ multilateral inflow commitments and elevated reserves’ level compared to prior periods.

They continue to reiterate following a cautious approach to stock picking and continue to advocate dollar-denominated revenue stream scrips (Technology and E&P sector) to hedge against currency risk or high dividend yielding scrips.