If ECOWAS takes military action against Niger

The West African regional bloc says it has agreed on a "D-Day" for military intervention in Niger to restore the deposed President Mohamed Bazoum.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) made the declaration at the end of a two-day meeting of West African army chiefs in Ghana's capital Accra, where they have been carefully discussing the logistics and strategy for a possible use of force in Niger.

ECOWAS has not disclosed a date for when a military intervention will take place, saying it will resort to the use of force if diplomatic efforts fail. The 15-member bloc has insisted that it will not be holding endless talks with the military rulers. The bloc did, however, say that any military action would be considered as a last resort.

"We are ready to go anytime the order is given," ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Abdel-Fatau Musah said during the closing ceremony. 

"The D-Day is also decided, which we are not going to disclose."

Musah has said that a peaceful resolution remains the bloc's preferred option in the path ahead. 

"As we speak we are still readying (a) mediation mission into the country, so we have not shut any door... (but) we are not going to engage in endless dialogue."

There was no immediate response from the defiant military rulers in Niger, who have insisted they will defend their country against any foreign aggression. 

Critics have accused the United States and France of fueling the prospects of war to maintain their military presence in Niger. They also accuse the US of driving a wedge between Niger and its neighbor Nigeria. 

Niger’s military officers deposed President Bazoum on July 26 and have strongly defied calls from ECOWAS and Western leaders, in particular the United States and former colonial power France, to reinstate Bazoum, prompting ECOWAS to order a standby force to be assembled.

The military in Niger has said they have gained enough evidence to prosecute Bazoum for high treason and undermining the security of the country. 

“The Nigerian government has so far gathered enough evidence to prosecute the deposed President and his local and foreign accomplices before the competent national and international bodies for high treason and undermining the internal and external security of Niger,” a Colonel-Major said on state TV. 

The new military leaders have formed a new government with a civilian prime minister. 

They have also slammed former colonial power France for meddling in their country’s domestic affairs and fueling instability while demanding all French forces leave their country immediately. 

Critics have accused the United States of using the pretext of fighting extremist militants to plunder Niger’s natural resources, such as its vast uranium, which is used for nuclear energy and amounts to around seven percent of the world reserves, as well as the country’s oil reserves. 

The military leaders have accused the United States and France, both of whom have military bases stationed in Niger – in an agreement with deposed President Bazoum – of increasing insecurity and stability in their country. 

There have been demonstrations in support of the military, with protesters holding up signs against France and ECOWAS; but the African bloc has refused to take the use of force off the table. 

"We've already agreed and fine-tuned what will be required for the intervention," Musah said, declining to share how many troops would be deployed, which states will contribute and other strategic information.

According to ECOWAS, most of its 15 member states are prepared to contribute to the joint force with the exception of those already under military rule such as Mali and Burkina Faso as well as Guinea and Cape Verde.

In a sign of how fragile the situation could become, Mali and Burkina Faso have stated that any military intervention in Niger would be considered a “declaration of war” against their nations. This could see a military coalition between the three nations that could drag any ECOWAS military intervention beyond Niger’s borders. 

Neighboring state Algeria has also expressed its opposition to the use of force. Russia has taken a similar position. 

Some analysts have pointed out that ECOWAS’s credibility is at stake because it had warned that it would not tolerate any further coups in West Africa. 

"The decision is that the coup in Niger is one coup too many for the region, and we are putting a stop to it at this time, we are drawing the line in the sand," Musah said.

Any armed intervention would spell further turmoil for West Africa's impoverished Sahel region, which is already battling a decade-old militancy and a deepening hunger crisis.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue. 

An Islamic delegation from Nigeria met with Niger’s military last week, in a move that was warmly welcomed by peace advocates. 

The United Nations special envoy for West Africa and the Sahel, Leonardo Santos Simao, held talks with the military’s new civilian prime minister Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine on Friday. 

Simao said in comments broadcast on Niger's state television that he wanted to listen to the coup leader’s point of view "to study together a way for the country to return as quickly as possible to constitutional normality and legality too. We are convinced that it is always possible with dialogue."

The prospects of another conflict erupting in West Africa, this time between African states, could make the volatile region very vulnerable. 

Regional nations are already battling extremist militants with links to Daesh and al-Qaeda terrorist groups in the Sahel. 

Experts say the regional states themselves should take the leading role in defeating these terrorists, who have not only wreaked havoc and insecurity but also brought about a humanitarian crisis. 

Mali and Burkina Faso have already kicked out the armed forces of former French colonial power, saying the presence of the foreign forces only increased instability on their land. 

Analysts have pointed to the evidence so far that the presence of Western powers such as the United States and France has done little to bring security to the region. 

They also argue that France and the US are seeking to drive a wedge between Niger and its neighbors, especially the African powerhouse Nigeria.  

A point of view is also shared by the local population who have taken to the streets in large numbers in support of the military officers in Niger. 

There are also widespread fears that any military intervention would spell a wider humanitarian and refugee crisis, with many experts arguing that the last thing West Africa needs right now is another fresh armed conflict.

 

Can United States keep Niger under its claws?

The United States appears to be caught in the horns of a dilemma, trying to balance a desire to maintain relations with Niger whose government cannot legally receive US aid, and the consequences that would accrue if US-Niger relations were severed. The clock is ticking on the fate of US-Niger relations, and there seems to be little any US official can do to change the outcome.

Lately, Acting Deputy Secretary of State for the United States Victoria Nuland made her third visit to Niger in the past two years. She was in the African country to respond to the July 26 military coup, which saw the ouster of the constitutionally-elected President Mohamed Bazoum by a group of military officers, operating under the umbrella of the newly-formed National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, led by the commander of the presidential guard, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, who subsequently declared himself to be the new head of state. 

Niger and Nigeria are two separate countries in the African continent. Since they are neighboring countries with similar names, most people get confused about the difference between Niger and Nigeria. Niger is located in Western Africa. It is a landlocked country surrounded by Libya, Chad, Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Algeria. Niger is the biggest country in the West Africa with a land area of almost 1,270,000 square kilometers. However, about 80% of its land area lies in the Sahara desert. It has remained a French colony. The religion of the majority of the population in Niger is Islam. Niger ranks bottom in the United Nation’s Human Development Index. This country faces many challenges such as desert terrain, inefficient agriculture, overpopulation, poor educational level, poverty of people, poor health care, and environmental degradation. The main agricultural exports of Niger are peanuts and cotton. It is a big exporter of Uranium.

Nuland had sought a meeting with the ousted president, Bazoum, as well as the leader of the new military government, General Tchiani. She was denied both, and instead held a very strained dialogue with Tchiani’s military chief, General Moussa Salaou Barmou, who headed a delegation of lesser officers.

The reasoning behind the American game of semantics is that, by law, if the US recognizes the coup as a coup, then it must cease all military-to-military interactions between a force of some 1,100 US military personnel currently stationed in Niger, and its military counterparts, as well as all other forms of US-funded aid.

The law known as Section 7008 (of Public Law 117-328, Division K), specifically states that no funds appropriated by Congress in support of State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs (SFOPS) “shall be obligated or expended to finance directly any assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup d’état or decree.” 

During her 2-hour discussions with the Tchiani government delegation, Nuland made it clear that while US relations were currently suspended, they were not permanently halted. In a post-meeting video press conference, Nuland emphasized the consequences of the failure to return President Bazoum to power with General Barmou, a Nigerien special forces officer who had been trained at US military schools and had extensive interaction with US military trainers in Niger.

Barmou’s personal experience with the US military is in many ways the personification of a relationship that today serves as the foundation of America’s military presence and mission in West Africa.

The US, France, and other European partners have been engaged in a years-long campaign, together with their West African partners, to combat Islamic extremism in the Sahel region of Africa. Niger, which hosts two major US bases, one outside the capital of Niamey known as Base 101, and a second, Air Base 201, in Agadez – a city located on the southern edge of the Sahara. Both bases support US intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations conducted by MQ-9 Reaper drones and fixed-wing aircraft flown by a Joint Special Operations Aviation Detachment, as well as other US military operations, including military airlift and special forces training detachments (France also maintains a significant military presence in Niger, numbering over 1,000, and there are several hundred other military personnel from a variety of European Union (EU) nations.

With the collapse of the US, French, EU, and United Nations military presence in neighboring Mali, and in the aftermath of a military coup in Chad, Niger has emerged as the last remaining bastion of the US-led anti-terrorism effort in the Sahel. If the US were to cut relations with Niger because of the coup, there would be no Western-oriented anti-terrorism efforts remaining to counter the threat of Al Qaeda and Islamic State terrorism in the region.

From Washington’s perspective, the greatest threat that would emerge from any break in the military-to-military assistance between the US and Niger is not the potential spread of Islamic fundamentalist-inspired terrorism, but rather Russian influence, especially in the form of military security support allegedly provided by Wagner Group, a private military company whose African operations appear to operate in sync with Russian foreign policy objectives.

Prior to last month’s Russian-African Summit, Prigozhin had met with Wagner forces who had relocated to Belarus in the aftermath of the abortive June 23-24 insurrection – which resulted in halting Wagner operations in Donbass – during which he emphasized the importance Africa would play in future Wagner activities. Wagner's presence has been reported in several African countries, including the Central African Republic, Libya, and Mali. Members of the senior leadership of the coup have reportedly met with Wagner officials in Mali, to discuss security cooperation between Wagner and Niger. During her meeting with the coup government, Victoria Nuland singled out the potential deployment of Wagner into Niger as a worrisome development and indicated that she pressed upon her Nigerien counterparts her assessment regarding the detrimental role played by Wagner regarding African security. The reported meeting between Wagner and Niger representatives indicates that Nuland’s message did not resonate with hosts.

There is an option that neither Nuland nor her boss, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have yet given voice to. In early 2003, the US Congress amended Section 7008 to provide for the Secretary of State to seek a waiver on the grounds of the national security interests of the United States.

There are two major obstacles for the US when it comes to any such waiver. First is the amount of political capital that the US has expended in trying to return President Bazoum to power – to reverse now would be the kind of nod to Realpolitik that the Biden administration is loath to do. Second is the fact that Niger, having evaluated its options going forward, may no longer be interested in maintaining the close relations it previously enjoyed with the US.

Niger, like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea before it, has thrown off the mantle of its post-colonial relationship with France, a relationship that was closely linked with US national security policy in West Africa and the Sahel.