According to an article by Zeinab Mohammed Salih, the war
between Sudan’s generals is entering its fourth month with no deal in sight.
The conflict has receded from the headlines while negotiations have stalled.
Without a resolution soon, war and displacement threaten to destabilize the
entire region.
Sudan’s
war between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF),
currently raging in the capital city Khartoum and the Darfur and Kordofan
regions, has entered its fourth month with no sign of a deal to stop it.
The war has already claimed the lives of thousands of people
who have died from direct fire, and some from hunger—trapped inside their
houses and unable to find food due to intense street fighting. Many buried
their loved ones inside their own homes.
Some international and regional peace efforts took place at
the war's start but with insignificant effect on the situation on the ground.
Most notably, in the first few days, the United States and Saudi Arabia tried
to secure ceasefires to create humanitarian corridors. However, of the 12
ceasefires declared, none were successful. The fighting has never stopped,
leaving millions of civilians with zero access to lifesaving aid.
Sudan quickly fell out of the news cycle a few weeks after
the war began when foreign nationals were successfully evacuated—resembling
Afghanistan in August 2021 when the United States pulled out its troops after
20 years.
Stories
of Sudanese and their suffering have become far less interesting to
international audiences than the war in Ukraine and the quick response by the
West.
Sudan typically only makes it into the headlines if the
story is attached to Wagner Group and Russia. Though some reports suggested
that the Wagner group has links with the RSF, no evidence supports that
claim.
Intelligent
sources in Libya say that the RSF is getting support from the United Arab
Emirates through Wagner-controlled areas in the Central African Republic.
This may be correct, especially after the RSF captured the
strategic army base of Om Dafoug on the border between the two countries. The
RSF now has control all the way from Om Dafoug to Omdurman, the twin city of
Khartoum on the west bank of the Nile River.
This control makes it easy for them to smuggle weapons to
the capital city, Khartoum. A media report suggested that at least 28
flights between the UAE and CAR took place within two weeks in May, with stops
at the Entebbe airport in Uganda.
The US and Saudi Arabia, with their huge sway over the
fighting generals, Abdulfatah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese army, and Mohamed
Hamdan Daglo (better known as Hemti), head of the RSF, seem not to be bothered
about the struggle of millions of us who are now trapped in the cities of
Khartoum, Darfur and al-Obied. This was demonstrated very clearly when they
announced they would be pausing talks in Jeddah for Eid al-Adha festivals while
the Sudanese people remained under constant bombardment by the army’s air force
and heavy artillery and attacked in their houses by the RSF in the capital and
by its militias in Darfur.
Some economic sanctions have been imposed on both warring
parties by the United States, freezing the assets of some companies that are
known to support them financially. A similar step was taken by the United
Kingdom last week but had no effect. The warring parties have maintained their
businesses all along, as did the former regime of Omar al-Bashir, which
survived 20 years of sanctions by the US by forming alliances with China and
Russia. The army’s supporters here in Khartoum suggest the same to alleviate
pressure from these sanctions.
With its strong connections to Russia, the army sent a
delegation to Moscow earlier this month headed by Malik Agar, the new deputy
head of the sovereign council. The army showed its potential to follow in the
footsteps of Bashir by attacking Western representatives. Its delegates
declared the head of the United Nations mission in the country, Volker Perthes,
“persona non grata” two weeks after the army chief accused him of inflaming the
conflict and called for his removal. After that, they refused the initiative
from the regional body, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD),
currently headed by Kenya, instead accepting Egypt’s initiative, the summit on
Sudan, despite producing the same recommendations.
Eighty percent of hospitals have been forced to close, with
very few pharmacies still functioning. Food prices have increased sharply, and
many have limited access after the army hit many markets in Khartoum and
Omdurman, killing dozens of civilians, including women and children. Many
people have died of avoidable diseases for lack of healthcare. Furthermore, the
RSF bombed people inside their medical facilities.
About 50% of the city’s population has fled. Those who
remain are here for financial or health reasons, and many more who stay hail
from provinces where fierce fighting is ongoing, like Kordofan and Darfur in
Western Sudan.
The city and all its strategic locations have been occupied
by RSF fighters, except three, the Wadi Saeedna airbase, the engineer corps,
and the al-Shajara artillery corps in Khartoum.
It was not difficult for them to take control despite being
only half the size of the regular army, which controls 80% of the economy.
All the income goes to the pockets of the generals, while
the soldiers only earn about $16 a month. Despite this leverage, the RSF seems
more willing to negotiate, while army leaders refuse.
Many media reports suggest that former regime elements have been
fighting alongside the army. It seems that they have influenced decisions
within the army to the point where the former rulers, the National Congress
Party, issued a statement warning General Shams al-Din Kabashi, who announced
the potential start of negotiations with the RSF in Jeddah and that the army is
open to have a civilian government until upcoming elections, against such a
move.
In
order for the United States and the international community to make the army
and the RSF sit down and talk seriously to end the misery of the Sudanese
people, they need to use their leverage over the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
According to some reports from Chad, the UAE managed to send
military equipment through Amdjarass airport near the Sudanese border to the
RSF. Many reports have suggested that Egypt has also intervened militarily
using its air force to hit two RSF convoys, one coming from Libya and the other
from Kordofan to Omdurman. Unless pressure is put on the UAE and Egypt to stop
supporting the two warring sides, the prolonged conflict will destabilize the
whole region from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa.
The Kenyan president, William Ruto, has been the only public
leader to warn against crimes in Darfur that might reach the level of genocide
after the killing of thousands of civilians from the Massaleet community,
including the governor and the brother of the traditional leader, in one city
by Arab militias backed by the RSF. This has led to the displacement of
hundreds of thousands more people to neighboring Chad.
Monitoring the ceasefire needs on-the-ground mechanisms that
can be established through sending peacekeeping forces to Khartoum and Darfur
with a limited mission—all past ceasefires have been violated by the two sides
for lack of monitoring. The suggestion of the IGAD to send eastern African
forces might lead to huge resistance from the former regimes’ military
elements, which could lead to resurfacing of jihadist groups such as Boko Haram
and ISIS; all have cells in Khartoum and some of their members have broken out
of Sudanese prisons.
The best solution would be to exert pressure on both
sides—as the United States did when the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between
North and South Sudan was signed in 2005. In order to do so, it must get all
the rebel groups in South Kordofan and Darfur and the civilians in Khartoum to
participate.
