Tuesday, 2 May 2023

Oil price slips to five week low on US default worries

Oil prices sank 4% to a five-week low on Tuesday along with a drop in Wall Street stocks on worries about a US bond default, weak economic data from China and expectations the US and Europe will raise interest rates again this week, reports Reuters.

Brent futures fell 4.0% to US$76.15 a barrel by 1444 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 4.2%, to US$72.47. That put both Brent and WTI in technically oversold territory and on track their lowest close since March 24, 2023.

Wall Street's main indexes DJI, SPX, IXIC fell after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US government could run out of money within a month, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

The cost of insuring against a US default hit fresh highs after Yellen said the government will be unlikely to meet all payment obligations by early June, prompting President Joe Biden to summon four top congressional leaders to the White House next week.

Oil prices also came under pressure after official data at the weekend showed manufacturing activity in China, the world's top crude importer, fell unexpectedly in April. This marks the first contraction in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index since December 2022.

"Most sub-indicators show that this might not be a short-term aberration," said Iris Pang, Greater China chief economist at financial services company ING, pointing to a weakening export market, lower imports in March and falling wages.

A cloudy economic outlook in other parts of the world also weighed on prices, analysts said.

"The unpredictable action of central banks in their mission to tame elevated consumer and producer prices, the rhetoric and action of consuming and producing nations have all cast a rather long shadow of doubt on prospects going forward," oil broker PVM's Tamas Varga said.

Investors will look for market direction from expected interest rate hikes by inflation-fighting central banks, which could slow economic growth and dent energy demand.

The US Federal reserve is expected to increase interest rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday.

The European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates at its regular policy meeting on Thursday.

On the supply side, the market shrugged off news that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) oil output fell in April, as sanctioned countries Russia and Iran continued to find outlets for their crude.

Iran's oil production has surpassed 3 million barrels per day (bpd), the country's oil minister said on Tuesday.

Iran pumped 2.4 million bpd on average in 2021 and has been under US sanctions since 2018.

Iraq, meanwhile, produced 3.938 million bpd of crude in April, down by 262,000 bpd from March, a source at state-owned crude marketer SOMO told Reuters.

Another factor that should provide some support for oil prices, a Reuters poll showed US crude oil stockpiles declined about one million barrels last week, putting inventories down for a third week in a row for the first time since December 2022.

The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.

 

Arab foreign ministers affirm priority of resolving Syrian crisis

The Arab foreign ministers affirmed on Monday the priority of resolving Syria's crisis through a political settlement that would safeguard its sovereignty and meet the people's aspirations.

During the meeting held in Amman with the participation of the foreign ministers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt, they called for creating proper conditions for safe and voluntary return of the Syrian refugees to their homeland.

Additionally, they called to rid Syria of terrorism, withdrawing all illegitimate foreign forces from the country and achieving national conciliation.

The foreign ministers also exchanged views on the efforts exerted to reach a political solution to the Syrian crisis, which would contribute to ending all its repercussions and preserving its unity, security, stability, and Arab identity.

This is in addition to returning it to its Arab surroundings, in a way that achieves prosperity for the Syrian people.

At the end of the meeting, they confirmed that there will be more meetings at this level in the future to work on attaining the objectives outlined in the Security Council Resolution 2254.

It is noteworthy that the meeting held in Amman comes as a follow-up to a gathering that comprised foreign ministers of the GCC states with their peers from Jordan, Iraq and Egypt on Syria, which was held in Saudi Arabia on April 14, 2023.

Monday, 1 May 2023

Iran Petrochemical Forum inaugurated

The 14th Iran Petrochemical Forum (IPF) kicked off at IRIB International Conference Center (IICC) in Tehran on Monday.

The inaugural ceremony of the event was participated by Rouhollah Dehqani-Firouzabadi, the vice president for science and technology, Majid Chegeni, the managing director of National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), and senior director of the country’s petrochemical sector.

Focusing on “Value Chain, New Opportunities”, the two-day forum revolves around eight topics, including: “Feedstock, products and supply chain”, “Solutions and advanced optimization technologies”, “Integration and coordination between petrochemical and refining complexes”, “Production process and market”, “Methanol market and its roles”, “Global energy crisis and future of the petrochemical industry”, “Investment and financial supply opportunities”, and “Energy optimization and production without pollution”.

As stated by the managing director of National Petrochemical Company (NPC), “Our today’s important objective of completing the production chain in the country’s petrochemical sector highlights the significance of holding this conference”, 

Morteza Shahmirzaei has expressed hope that IPF can pave the way to achieve all strategic petrochemical products in the world.

As reported, 15 countries, including the members of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as well as some European countries, are participating in IPF, which is a famous scientific conference in the world, and the latest products and achievements of the petrochemical industry are being presented and introduced in the two-day event.

 

McCarthy pledges to invite Netanyahu to Washington

US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy arrived in Israel with a bi-partisan delegation of 19 other members of Congress to celebrate Israel’s 75th anniversary. He promised to bring Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Capitol Hill in Washington if US President Joe Biden continued to refuse to invite him to the White House.

"I'll invite the prime minister to come meet with the House. He's a dear friend, as a prime minister of a country that we have our closest ties with,” McCarthy told the Hebrew daily Yisrael HaYom on the first day of his two-day trip to Israel.

McCarthy arrived with a bi-partisan delegation of 19 other members of Congress to celebrate Israel’s 75th anniversary. He is expected to address the Knesset plenum on Monday, a rare move that has been done only once before by Newt Gingrich in 1998.

The bi-partisan delegation’s visit is viewed as symbolic of the strong Israeli-US ties at a time when tensions are high between Biden and Netanyahu over the latter’s judicial overhaul plan.

Netanyahu had expected to be invited to the White House after his new government was sworn in at the end of December. Despite initial promises that an invitation would be forthcoming, Biden publicly stated he had no plans to invite Netanyahu at this time.

The Biden administration fears that the overhaul would weaken Israeli democracy, while Netanyahu has argued that it would strengthen it.

McCarthy told Yisrael HaYom that too much time had lapsed.

"I think it's too long now. He [Biden] should invite him soon,” McCarthy said.

McCarthy has in the past spoken strongly in support of Netanyahu who he is expected to meet during the visit.

 

 

IsDB Annual Meetings being held in Jeddah

The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Group has announced to hold its Annual Meetings in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, from May 10th to 13th, 2023, under the patronage of The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.

The meetings will take place under the theme "Partnerships to Fend off Crises," highlighting the importance of collaboration in addressing challenges faced by IsDB member countries.

The IsDB Group Annual Meetings serve as a significant platform for global leaders, policymakers, development practitioners, and other stakeholders to come together and discuss critical development issues.

This year's meetings will also include the Private Sector Forum (PSF), hosted by the IsDB Group entities comprising the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC), the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC), and the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD). The PSF aims to provide a unique platform for networking, establishing business relations, and exploring investment and trade opportunities offered by member countries.

The four-day event will feature high-level plenary sessions, interactive panel discussions, technical sessions, and side events covering a wide range of topics, including poverty alleviation, infrastructure development, health, education, food security, climate change, and innovation. The Annual Meetings will provide a platform for member countries to showcase their development projects and initiatives, fostering partnerships for impactful outcomes.

In addition to the official program, the Annual Meetings will offer opportunities for networking, knowledge sharing, and engagement with global leaders and experts in the field of development. The IsDB Group will also host a dedicated exhibition space, showcasing the Group's innovative projects and initiatives, as well as the achievements and success stories of its member countries.

The 2023 IsDB Group Annual Meetings will bring together a diverse group of stakeholders, including ministers from the 57 member countries, senior government officials, heads of international organizations, representatives from the private sector, civil society, academia, and the media, among others.

The occasion will provide a conducive environment for dialogue and collaboration, with the aim of identifying actionable solutions to foster inclusive and sustainable development in IsDB member countries.

As IsDB Group continues its mission to promote economic and social development in its member countries, the Annual Meetings serve as a crucial platform to advance the bank's strategic priorities and initiatives. With the theme of "Partnerships to Fend off Crises," the IsDB Group is committed to fostering meaningful partnerships to address the challenges faced by its member countries and beyond and drive positive change.

 

 

Sunday, 30 April 2023

Jordan to host talks on Syria’s return to Arab League

Jordan will host a meeting of Arab foreign ministers and Syria's top diplomat on Monday to discuss Syria's return to the Arab League as part of a broader political settlement of Syria's more than decade-old conflict, officials said.

The meeting, to be attended by Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad and his counterparts from Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, would discuss a Jordanian plan to achieve a political settlement of the conflict, Jordanian government officials said.

The meeting comes two weeks after talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia between the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, failed to reach agreement on Syria's possible return to the Arab fold.

It is the first such meeting with a top Syrian official by a group of Arab states - most of whom endorsed the move to suspend Syria's membership of the League in 2011 after a crackdown on protesters denouncing President Bashar al-Assad's authoritarian rule escalated into a devastating civil war.

Arab states and those most affected by the conflict are trying to reach consensus on whether to invite Assad to the Arab League summit on May 19 in Riyadh, to discuss the pace of normalizing ties with Assad and on what terms Syria could be allowed back.

Officials said the Jordanian initiative calls on Damascus to engage with Arab governments collectively on a step-by-step road map to end the conflict.

It would include tackling the issue of refugees, the fate of thousands of missing detainees, drug smuggling between Syria and the Gulf through Jordan and the presence of Iranian militias in Syria.

Regional superpower Saudi Arabia has resisted normalizing relations with Assad but said after its rapprochement with Iran - Syria's key regional ally - a new approach was needed with Damascus, which is under Western sanctions.

At the Jeddah meeting there was resistance to the move to invite Assad to the Arab League summit, with Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait saying it was premature before Damascus accepts to negotiate a peace plan.

Jordan's foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, met on Sunday with visiting US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, officials said.

Washington does not wish to change its policy towards the Syrian government which it terms a ‘rogue’ state, has urged Arab states that have shifted their stance to get something in return for engaging with Assad once again.

Get ready for ‘President Kamala Harris’

The White House is preparing for the massive role Kamala Harris will have to play in the 2024 campaign. She has taken multiple hits as vice president, and her political stock has plummeted following criticism on multiple fronts. 

Yet she remains a key player in Biden world, with even more importance in a reelection campaign where the 80-year-old president’s age will be a key issue with voters.

Now the White House is focused on building Harris up as it prepares for what could be a rematch next year with former President Trump.

“There is an effort to re-launch her. I think with the age thing, the VP becomes more important, and it’s not necessarily to improve her, but to make her higher profile,” said a former Democratic campaign official.

Speaking about the Biden team’s prior work to diminish Harris’s profile, the Democrat added, “I don’t think there are any regrets.”

Harris was featured frequently in Biden’s reelection launch video this week. She and second gentleman Doug Emhoff appear just 15 seconds into the three-minute clip, a sign the campaign will not shy away from her as an asset who can connect with key voting blocs.

White House officials believe she has hit her stride as a leading voice in the administration on fighting back against GOP efforts to restrict abortion access. Hours after Biden launched his campaign, Harris spoke at a political event focused on reproductive rights, where she was greeted with chants of four more years.

But while Harris’s allies are keen to promote her as a boost to the campaign, Republicans appear just as eager to frame her as a drag on the ticket, especially through the lens of Biden’s age.

“I think we can all be very clear and say with a matter of fact that if you vote for Joe Biden, you really are counting on a President Harris, because the idea that he would make it until 86 years old is not something that I think is likely,” Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said this week. 

“But really, are we willing to say we’re OK with a President Kamala Harris?” Haley asked.

Her comments underscore a looming balancing act for the Biden campaign: How to reassure voters about Harris when she is just a heartbeat away from the presidency without elevating her too much and drawing more attention to the issue of Biden’s age.

“Of course the Biden campaign is not going to make Harris more prominent, because they’re not going to want to send a signal that Harris is more important, because something might happen to Biden in office,” said Danny Hayes, a political science professor at George Washington University.

“Voters are still voting first and foremost for or against Biden, not Harris,” he added.

Harris entered the 2020 presidential race as a top-tier candidate for the nomination. But her campaign was plagued by personnel and messaging issues, and perhaps her most notable moment was a clash with Biden on the debate stage over student busing policy.

In her first year as vice president, Harris faced criticism over frequent staffing turnover and her handling of migration from Central America, a complex issue Biden tasked her with leading. Harris became a punching bag for Republicans who blamed her for problems at the southern border, and she drew criticism from Democrats when she told migrants not to come to the US.

Harris’s favorability rating has hovered in the low 40% range for much of her time as vice president. A Fox News poll published this week showed her favorability rating at 41%, including 73% among Democrats. The same poll put Biden’s favorability at 44%.

Harris has seemingly found her footing over the past year, leading the administration’s fight against abortion restrictions in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. In recent weeks she made high-profile trips to Africa and Tennessee, the latter coming after three Democratic state lawmakers were targeted for expulsion over gun violence protests.

“There is an effort to lift her up around the apparatus, but the other part of it is people are just now paying attention. She didn’t just start traveling, she didn’t just start lifting up these issues,” a source close to the vice president’s office told The Hill.

Harris has also taken on issues related to foreign policy, climate and small businesses. Over a year ago, she started traveling two to three times a week, including on five overseas trips.

“I’m actually thrilled to see her hitting a good groove, which to me sort of makes sense at this time of the presidential campaign. On abortion rights but also guns, you’ve seen her step up in a way that we haven’t up until this point,” said David Thomas, a partner at Mehlman Consulting and former deputy director of legislative affairs for former Vice President Al Gore.

Taking on those issues, especially reproductive rights, has elevated Harris’s profile and required her to traverse the country and meet with local officials, which can all be an asset to the 2024 ticket.

“Despite what maybe people think of her inside the beltway, she really excites the Democratic base, and that’s why we see her out in the country more often, talking to Democrats,” Thomas said.

After Harris’s challenges with staffing early on in the administration, she has brought on two top aides who her supporters say will be pivotal to her inner circle as the campaign picks up. Kelsey Smith, a longtime aide to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was hired as director of scheduling and advice for the vice president in January, and Lorraine Voles just hit her one-year mark as chief of staff.

There is also a belief Harris will be aided by the presence of Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, who worked with Harris when she was a California senator and when she ran for president in 2020.

“She’s got this challenge of how many reboots are they going do,” said one Democratic strategist. “For Kamala, it’s always going to come down to can she put a good team together and execute.”