Saturday, 8 April 2023

United States always soliciting war, not peace

In a brilliant op-ed published in the New York Times, the Quincy Institute's Trita Parsi explained how China, with help from Iraq, was able to mediate and resolve the deeply-rooted conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, whereas the United States was in no position to do so after siding with the Saudi kingdom against Iran for decades.

The title of Parsi's article, "The US is not an indispensable peacemaker", refers to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's use of the term "indispensable nation" to describe the US role in the post Cold War world.

The irony in Parsi's use of Albright's term is that she generally used it to refer to US war-making, not peacemaking. In 1998, Albright toured the Middle East and then the United States to rally support for President Clinton's threat to bomb Iraq. After failing to win support in the Middle East, she was confronted by heckling and critical questions during a televised event at Ohio State University, and she appeared on the Today Show the next morning to respond to public opposition in a more controlled setting.

Albright claimed, "..if we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future, and we see here the danger to all of us. I know that the American men and women in uniform are always prepared to sacrifice for freedom, democracy and the American way of life."

Albright's readiness to take the sacrifices of American troops for granted had already got her into trouble when she famously asked General Colin Powell, "What's the use of having this superb military you're always talking about if we can't use it?" Powell wrote in his memoirs, "I thought I would have an aneurysm."

But Powell himself later caved to the neocons, or the "fucking crazies" as he called them in private, and dutifully read the lies they made up to try to justify the illegal invasion of Iraq to the UN Security Council in February 2003.

For the past 25 years, administrations of both parties have caved to the "crazies" at every turn. Albright and the neocons' exceptionalist rhetoric, now standard fare across the US political spectrum, leads the United States into conflicts all over the world, in an unequivocal, Manichean way that defines the side it supports as the side of good and the other side as evil, foreclosing any chance that the United States can later play the role of an impartial or credible mediator.

Today, this is true in the war in Yemen, where the US chose to join a Saudi-led alliance that committed systematic war crimes, instead of remaining neutral and preserving its credibility as a potential mediator.

It also applies, most notoriously, to the US blank check for endless Israeli aggression against the Palestinians, which doom its mediation efforts to failure.

For China, however, it is precisely its policy of neutrality that has enabled it to mediate a peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the same applies to the African Union's successful peace negotiations in Ethiopia, and to Turkey's promising mediation between Russia and Ukraine, which might have ended the slaughter in Ukraine in its first two months but for American and British determination to keep trying to pressure and weaken Russia.

Neutrality has become anathema to US policymakers. George W. Bush's threat, "You are with us, or you are with the terrorists," has become an established, if unspoken, core assumption of 21st century US foreign policy.

The response of the American public to the cognitive dissonance between our wrong assumptions about the world and the real world they keep colliding with has been to turn inward and embrace an ethos of individualism.

This can range from New Age spiritual disengagement to a chauvinistic America First attitude. Whatever form it takes for each of us, it allows us to persuade ourselves that the distant rumble of bombs, albeit mostly American ones, is not our problem.

The US corporate media has validated and increased our ignorance by drastically reducing foreign news coverage and turning TV news into a profit-driven echo chamber peopled by pundits in studios who seem to know even less about the world than the rest of us.

Most US politicians now rise through the legal bribery system from local to state to national politics, and arrive in Washington knowing next to nothing about foreign policy. This leaves them as vulnerable as the public to neocon clichés like the ten or twelve packed into Albright's vague justification for bombing Iraq: freedom, democracy, the American way of life, stand tall, the danger to all of us, we are America, indispensable nation, sacrifice, American men and women in uniform, and "we have to use force."

Faced with such a solid wall of nationalistic drivel, Republicans and Democrats alike have left foreign policy firmly in the experienced but deadly hands of the neocons, who have brought the world only chaos and violence for 25 years.

All but the most principled progressive or libertarian members of Congress go along to get along with policies so at odds with the real world that they risk destroying it, whether by ever-escalating warfare or by suicidal inaction on the climate crisis and other real-world problems that we must cooperate with other countries to solve if we are to survive.

It is no wonder that Americans think the world's problems are insoluble and that peace is unattainable, because our country has so totally abused its unipolar moment of global dominance to persuade us that that is the case. But these policies are choices, and there are alternatives, as China and other countries are dramatically demonstrating.

President Lula da Silva of Brazil is proposing to form a "peace club" of peacemaking nations to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine, and this offers new hope for peace.

During his election campaign and his first year in office, President Biden repeatedly promised to usher in a new era of American diplomacy, after decades of war and record military spending. Zach Vertin, now a senior adviser to UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield wrote in 2020 that Biden's effort to "rebuild a decimated State Department" should include setting up a "mediation support unit… staffed by experts whose sole mandate is to ensure our diplomats have the tools they need to succeed in waging peace."

Biden's meager response to this call from Vertin and others was finally unveiled in March 2022, after he dismissed Russia's diplomatic initiatives and Russia invaded Ukraine.

The State Department's new Negotiations Support Unit consists of three junior staffers quartered within the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations. This is the extent of Biden's token commitment to peacemaking, as the barn door swings in the wind and the four horsemen of the apocalypse - War, Famine, Conquest and Death - run wild across the Earth.

As Zach Vertin wrote, "It is often assumed that mediation and negotiation are skills readily available to anyone engaged in politics or diplomacy, especially veteran diplomats and senior government appointees. But that is not the case. Professional mediation is a specialized, often highly technical, tradecraft in its own right."

The mass destruction of war is also specialized and technical, and the United States now invests close to a trillion dollars per year in it. The appointment of three junior State Department staffers to try to make peace in a world threatened and intimidated by their own country's trillion-dollar war machine only reaffirms that peace is not a priority for the US government.

By contrast, the European Union created its Mediation Support Team in 2009 and now has 20 team members working with other teams from individual EU countries. The UN's Department of Political and Peace Building Affairs has a staff of 4,500, spread all across the world.

The tragedy of American diplomacy today is that it is diplomacy for war, not for peace. The State Department's top priorities are not to make peace, nor even to actually win wars, which the United States has failed to do since 1945, apart from the reconquest of small neocolonial outposts in Grenada, Panama, and Kuwait.

Its actual priorities are to bully other countries to join US-led war coalitions and buy US weapons, to mute calls for peace in international fora, to enforce illegal and deadly coercive sanctions, and to manipulate other countries into sacrificing their people in US proxy wars.

The result is to keep spreading violence and chaos across the world. If we want to stop our rulers from marching us toward nuclear war, climate catastrophe, and mass extinction, we had better take off our blinders and start insisting on policies that reflect our best instincts and our common interests, instead of the interests of the warmongers and merchants of death who profit from war.

 

Friday, 7 April 2023

Pakistan Stock Exchange remains in the grip of volatility and uncertainty

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed volatility during the week ended on April 07, 2023 owing to economic uncertainty, further exacerbated by political tension that persisted within the country. However, the market showed some resistance, and moved into positive territory come Wednesday when the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked rates by lesser than expectations, by 100bps to 21%, contrary to market expectations of a 200bps increase.

News flows of a Saudi Arabia assurance of US$2 billion primarily helped boost investors’ confidence. However, the news of the cancellation of a Finance Minister’s earlier planned visit to the US for IMF and World Bank spring meetings, once again shattered investor confidence, resulting in the market closing in the red on the last trading session. The market closed almost flat.

Moreover, participation in the market improved, increasing by 19.4%WoW as the average daily traded volume was reported at 110.2 million shares, as against 92.3 million shares a week ago.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Country’s foreign exchange reserves eroded by US$56 million, 2) March inflation rose to 35.4%, highest since 1965, Pakistan fought war with India, 3) China rolled over US$2 billion loan, 4) trade deficit during first nine months of current financial year shrank to US$22.9 billion YoY, 5) GoP raised PKR2.24 trillion via T-Bills auction, 6) FBR suffered massive shortfall of PKR304 billion during July-March period.

Sector-wise, Modarabas, Woollen, and Miscellaneous emerged the top performers. As against this, Tobacco, Leather & Tanneries, and Close-end Mutual Funds were amongst the worst performers.

Flow wise, selling was led by Insurance companies with a net sell of US$4.8 million. Individuals absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$2.7 million.

Top performing scrips were: SML, PSEL, FATIMA, EPCL, and BNWM, while laggards included: PAKT, MUREB, AIRLINK, EFUG, and HCAR.

Market is expected to remain jittery until there is a clear picture on the IMF front, the news of the cancellation of Finance Minister’s visit has further added to the uncertainty in this matter. If political tension settles, the market's confidence may also be restored.

Until then, investors are advised to take a cautious approach while building new positions. Analysts continue to advocate the stocks with dollar-denominated revenue streams, i.e. Technology and E&P sector, to hedge against the currency risks.

China attains status of ‘Lender of Last Resort’

China has become a major rescue lender for heavily indebted countries. In 2022, loans to countries in debt distress accounted for 60% of China’s overseas lending portfolio – up sharply from just 5% in 2010.

Over the past two decades, Chinese institutions have provided US$240 billion in rescue lending to 22 developing countries. Of that sum, US$170 billion was provided through the People’s Bank of China’s swap line network – a system whereby central banks agree to exchange currencies.

The rest was offered through other means such as bridge loans or balance of payments support by Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises, including the China Development Bank. These loans are provided, generally with high interest rates, mostly to middle-income countries, which account for four-fifths of China’s overall lending. Low-income countries are given grace periods and maturity extensions.

These loans, often doled out as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, have been highly criticized for creating debt traps for cash-strapped borrowers. Countries like Sri Lanka, Zambia and Ghana are currently in talks with Beijing to restructure their debt.

More governments are struggling to make payments amid a global downturn. There is growing concern about China’s ability to refinance the loans and avoid financial problems at home if debtors can’t repay them.

 

Chinese refineries buying more oil from Iran

Chinese private refineries are buying more Iranian oil as competition for supplies from Russia rises, Bloomberg reported. The teapots are prioritizing the flows, with Russian supplies getting pricier as mainstream buyers such as state-owned Chinese refiners and Indian processors take a greater share, according to analysts and trade data.

In March 2023, China’s imports of Iranian crude and condensate jumped 20%MoM to 800,000 barrels a day, and are on track to extend gains in coming months, according to Emma Li, an analyst with data intelligence firm Vortexa Ltd.

While Iranian oil has long been sanctioned by the US, refiners in China have proved to be a consistent outlet. 

Most Iranian oil used to go to state-owned refineries but the private refiners in Shandong especially are now running the show, said Homayoun Falakshahi, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, the data and analytics firm.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has said that the oil and gas sector experienced a growth of nine percent in the past Iranian calendar year 1401 (ended on March 20).

Oil Minister Javad Oji has recently said that a new record high will be reached in the country’s oil export in the current Iranian calendar year.

The country’s oil export in 1401 was 83 million barrels more than that of 1400, and 190 million barrels more than the export in 1399, the minister announced.

Underlining that now oil export has reached the highest figure in the last two years, the official said, “Considering that the Oil Ministry is one of the main providers of the country's foreign currency; in the 13th government, despite the tightening of cruel sanctions, fortunately, thanks to the grace of God and the efforts of our colleagues in the country's oil and gas industries, there are good records in the field of exporting crude oil, gas condensate, and petroleum and petrochemical products.”

Despite the negative impacts of the U.S. sanctions, Iran has been ramping up its oil production and exports over the past few months.

In his remarks in November 2022, President Raisi highlighted the failure of the enemy’s policy of maximum pressure, saying the country’s oil export has reached the pre-sanction levels.

Back in January, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in a report put Iran’s average oil production in 2022 at 2.54 million bpd, 140,000 bpd more than the previous year.

Iran's oil production in 2021 was about 2.4 million bpd.

 

Raisi demands urgent OIC meeting over Israeli attack on Al-Aqsa Mosque

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has urged the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to requisite an urgent meeting to discuss the situation in the occupied Palestinian territories after Israeli forces stormed the al-Aqsa Mosque violently overnight, fired stun grenades, and attacked Palestinian worshipers.

During a phone call with his Indonesian counterpart Joko Widodo on Thursday, he demanded that the 57-member body call an emergency meeting to come to a consensus on how to defend the rights of defenseless Palestinians and confront the crimes of the Tel Aviv regime.

The Iranian president stressed that the support for the rights of the Palestinian nation and fight against the Zionist regime constitute an underlying principle of the Muslim Ummah, referring to Palestine as the beating heart of the Muslim world.

“The unity of the Muslim world remains essential in order to face down the aggression and crimes committed by the Zionist regime,” he continued.

The Iranian president stated that the Muslim world, as a powerful bloc in global politics, needs more unification.

Raisi declared that Iran supports any activity aimed at fostering better ties among Muslim nations as a result.

Widodo, for his part, supported his Iranian counterpart’s request for an urgent OIC conference on Palestine in the hopes that it would strengthen ties between Muslim-majority countries.

The OIC General Secretariat announced shortly after the call that an urgent, extended meeting of the Executive Committee at the level of Permanent Representatives would be held on Saturday at the OIC’s Jeddah headquarters to discuss the incursions and assaults committed by Israeli occupation forces against the al-Aqsa Mosque and its worshippers.

Israeli troops attempted to drive Palestinian worshipers from the holy site on Wednesday by firing rubber bullets and grenades during their second consecutive raid on the location. In reaction, worshipers flung items at the Israeli soldiers.

At least six individuals were hurt in the most recent flare-up, according to the Palestine Red Crescent Society.

Concern and dismay about Israeli soldiers’ invasions inside the mosque have been voiced by the UN, Iran, Turkey, and several other nations and organizations.

Images showing Israeli security personnel abusing individuals at the Al-Aqsa Mosque surprised and disgusted UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, his spokesperson said on Wednesday.

According to Stephane Dujarric, Guterres found it particularly upsetting because the violence and beating took place during a time of a calendar which is holy to Jews, Christians, and Muslims that should be a time for peace and nonviolence.

He said, “Places of worship should only be utilized for lawful religious practices.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian criticized Israel for defiling the Al-Aqsa Mosque and asserted that the tide of Islamic world unity has bewildered the Israelis.

In a tweet on Thursday, he said, “The desecration of al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli forces and their night raid on worshipers of the holy site created painful scenes that are the result of the behavior of human rights advocates who turn a blind eye to Zionism’s crimes.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, 6 April 2023

Finland to buy David's Sling system from Israel

Finland will purchase the David’s Sling air defense system from Israel, its Ministry of Defence said. This is the first time that David’s Sling has been sold abroad. The announcement came late Wednesday, a day after the Nordic country was accepted into NATO.

The treaty’s newest member said the plans were to buy the defense system for €316 million, with a possibility for expansion.

 “The procurement contract will include a separate clause between the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Defence of Finland to ensure the security of supply of the system,” a Finnish statement said.

“The arrangement will ensure the availability of critical system components in all security situations.”

It added, the system will extend the operational range of Finland’s ground-based air defense capabilities significantly.

This decision was one of Finland’s first moves after officially being accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance. The nation saw Israel’s defense system as a crucial need to meet its defense needs.

“This acquisition will create a new capability for the Finnish Defence Forces to intercept targets at high altitude. At the same time we are continuing the ambitious and long-term development of Finland’s defense capability in a new security environment,” Minister Antti Kaikkonen said. 

How does the David's Sling system compare to prices of other Israeli missile defense systems?

The David's Sling system is pricier among Israeli missile defense forces. Each interceptor launched by Israel’s David’s Sling system costs an estimated US$1 million, but the army insists that the cost is irrelevant when launched to defend the home front. 

Israel’s air defenses also include the Iron Dome, which is designed to shoot down short-range rockets; and the Arrow system which intercepts ballistic missiles outside of the Earth’s atmosphere. Compared to the David’s Sling costly interceptor, each Iron Dome Tamir interceptor has a reported price of between US$100,000 and US$150,000.


  

Asian LNG spot prices slip to 21 month low

Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remained flat this week at the lowest level since July 2021 on muted demand and solid inventories in China, Japan and Korea.

The average LNG price for May delivery into northeast Asia was US$12.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), unchanged from the previous week, industry sources estimated.

Prices have fallen 55% year-to-date and more than 82% from the August 2022 peak of US$70.50/mmBtu.

"North Asian demand drivers are still errant, even for off- season speculative cargos. Pricing seems to be driven by sentiment correlated with euro hub markers," said Toby Copson, global head of trading at Trident LNG.

"I expect we will trade in this narrow range while we sit in shoulder season - until some impetus emerges for utilities as Chinese and Korean storage seems topped up," he added.

Tobias Davis, head of LNG Asia at brokerage Tullett Prebon, said the market has seen fresh bouts of demand from Thailand's PTT which lifted around 10 cargoes at US$12-US$13/mmBtu and is tendering for more volumes for May-September, while the Philippines secured its first LNG import cargo from Vitol and Indian end-users continue to pick prompt volumes.

"Prices below US$13/mmBtu continue to deter China, which remains quiet and on the sidelines with opportunistic bids, while healthy storage in Japan and Korea continue to keep that all important end-user demand at bay," Davis added.

Europe is still a favourable destination for cargoes, despite a series of strikes in France that have reduced the country's LNG imports by around one million tons in March, as cargoes have been diverted to neighbouring terminals.

Ken Kiat Lee, senior analyst at consultancy firm FGE, said that despite Europe's colder start to the shoulder season - the months after winter and ahead of summer - prices have continued to trade sideways with most markets sitting on above-average gas inventories.

S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily north-west Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in March on an ex-ship (DES) basis at US$12.374/mmBtu on April 5, a US$1.90/mmBtu discount to the May gas price at the Dutch gas TTF hub, according to Allen Reed, managing editor of Atlantic LNG.

Reed said that the spread between European gas and LNG prices hit a multi-month high on April 04, at a US$2.20 discount to Dutch gas prices for May - and was largely driven by strikes at French LNG terminals.

LNG spot freight rates have fallen amid softer gas prices and potential sub-charters entering the market, with Atlantic rates at US$42,000/day on Thursday and Pacific rates at US$62,750/day, according to Edward Armitage, an analyst at Spark Commodities.