The Ukraine war is one of the most important challenges in
the world of politics, especially between Russia and the West. The war began in
February 2014 with a speech by Russian President and continues until now.
Putin told the Russian people that he was conducting a
“special military operation” to “denazify” Ukraine and prevent NATO from
expanding to Russia’s borders.
Many in the West see the war, which they consider the most
disruptive conflict in Europe since 1945, as a war of choice by Putin, but he
says that NATO’s 2008 decision in favor of eventual Ukrainian membership
brought an existential threat to Russia’s borders.
This article aims at exploring the reasons for the war, its
process, and the costs.
Russia declared one of the reasons for starting the war to
help the Russians living in the two republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, two
separatist regions of eastern Ukraine in Donbas. Russia repeatedly stated that
the two regions have a Russian majority and should either become autonomous or
join Russia. The Kremlin declared racism against the Russians the reason for
the war.
After the annexation of Crimea, Russians established
self-rule governments in these two provinces. They were only able to take over
parts of the two provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, a struggle started to
conquer the two provinces.
Ukrainian government forces also engaged in a military
conflict against the separatists. As a result, more than 14,000 people were
killed and a many were displaced.
In 2015, with the mediation of France and Germany, an
agreement was signed between Russia and Ukraine, which became known as the
Minsk Agreement. The main goal of the deal was to end the conflict between the
Ukrainian army and Russian-backed separatists in Donbass. According to the
agreement, in exchange for regaining control of its borders with Russia, Ukraine
gave these two regions autonomy in many areas, which was supported by the
United States and its allies.
The agreement was annulled by the war, and once again
Donbass became the core of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine and Putin said
in his speech before the start of the war, the people's republics of Donbass
have asked Russia for help.
As stated, one of the most important reasons for the start
of Russia's war against Ukraine was Kyiv's decision to join NATO; in another
word, to expand the military coalition to Russia's borders and threaten the
country.
In his speech, Putin said, “I will begin with what I said in
my address on February 21, 2022. I spoke about our biggest concerns and
worries, and about the fundamental threats that irresponsible Western
politicians created for Russia consistently, rudely, and unceremoniously from
year to year. I am referring to the eastward expansion of NATO, which is moving
its military infrastructure ever closer to the Russian border. It is a fact
that over the past 30 years, we have been patiently trying to come to an
agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and
indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we invariably
faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail,
while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and
concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our
very border.
Some sources say that another reason for the start of the
war was Kyiv's threat to resume its nuclear program, and to prove it, they
point finger at the statements of Dmitry Medvedev, the former president and
prime minister of Russia and the current deputy of the Security Council of this
country.
Ukraine’s threats to resume its nuclear program were largely
the reason for Moscow’s special military operation, Medvedev said on Nov, 07,
2022.
One of the reasons for conducting the special military
operation was the threats by Ukrainian leaders that hinted resumption of the
nuclear program, which Kyiv relinquished under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994,
Medvedev wrote in a message on the country’s VK social network, according to TASS.
“What do we see in contrast next to our own borders? Poor
puppets from an inferior state, now weeping bitterly about the decision taken
under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 to withdraw the nuclear arsenal located
on their territory and inherited from the USSR,” Medvedev said, following
statements describing South Africa’s accession process to the Nonproliferation
Treaty.
Later, Medvedev said that Ukrainians always perceived Kyiv’s
accession to the international treaty as a forced step decided under harsh
pressure from Washington, adding that this was the case even though Ukraine did
not have the means to support the might (nuclear weapons) that had fallen to it
by chance.
He further said Ukrainian leaders, from former President
Leonid Kravchuk to current President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have expressed that they
would be happy to use it (nuclear weapons) against us (Russia) and their own
citizens (Ukrainians).
Whatever the reason for this war, it cost a lot for the parties, especially the
European Union, which was highly dependent on Russian energy.
This cost can be examined in two dimensions:
The war in Ukraine, which is called the most destructive in
Europe after World War II, has cost a lot to the parties involved.
Ukraine imports most of the weapons it needs. Although the
country does not pay for the purchase of these weapons, its supporters -
Europe, the US, and NATO - who are forced and committed to supplying Ukraine
with weapons, bear the most costs.
Although the exact costs of these countries cannot be
assessed, the cases announced by them show that Europe and the United States
have incurred a lot of costs, some of which are as follows:
Short-Term Military Support (US$17 billion): This
includes the transfer of weapons, both US weapons and those purchased from
allies, training of Ukrainian military personnel, and intelligence sharing.
Long-Term Military Support (US$10.4 billion): This
consists of money that Ukraine can use to buy new weapons, mostly from the
United States but also elsewhere.
US Military Operations (US$9.6 billion): In the spring,
the United States sent about 18,000 troops to Europe to strengthen defenses and
deter Russia. These deployments cost money above what was planned in the DOD
budget.
DOD General Support (US$1.2 billion): This covers a
wide variety of activities, some only tangentially related to Ukraine, to
prepare DOD for future conflicts.
Indirect costs can also be referred to human costs, war
refugees and the EU energy debate.
Europe, as a place on the front line of Ukrainian
immigrants, suffered from two aspects. First, Ukrainian refugees directly
entered Europe. Second, there was the issue of gas and energy crisis.
Nearly 8 million refugees fleeing Ukraine have been recorded
across Europe, while an estimated 8 million have been displaced within the
country by late May 2022. Approximately one-quarter of the country's total
population had left their homes in Ukraine by March 20, 2022.
Another impact of the Ukraine war was on the European
benchmark natural gas prices.
The countries of the European Union, as importers of Russian
gas, were deprived of energy due to their positions, and the energy challenge
has turned into a super crisis for several months.
The
benchmark price spiked to 227 euros after Russia invaded Ukraine on February
24, 2022, and to around 350 euros in late August. As of January 03, 2023, the
benchmark price is about 74 euros.
Of course, the same cases are also true for Russia; the
country has also suffered a lot of financial losses in addition to the loss of
lives.
The sanctions of the European Union and the United States
against this country, especially in the field of energy, are one of these
losses.
