United States brokering Israel-Lebanon deal

The Biden administration is on the verge of a significant breakthrough in Middle East relations as it quietly pursues an agreement between Israel and Lebanon on territorial maritime borders.

The negotiations appear to be closing in on the finish line amid intensive negotiations between US, Israeli and Lebanese officials that took place last week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. 

The administration has taken pains to downplay the significance of the potential agreement — concerned that anything that appears to look like normalization between Israel and Lebanon would set off a catastrophic fight with Hezbollah, which has an estimated 150,000 missiles positioned on Israel’s northern border.

But if successful, an agreement between Lebanon and Israel — with Beirut implicitly recognizing Israel’s legitimacy while the two sides are at war — would mark a tremendous victory for the Biden administration’s use of diplomacy to advance Middle East stability. 

“It would be a very significant win for the Biden administration, and frankly it would be a significant win for regional stability and de-escalation of tensions,” said Mona Yacoubian, a senior adviser in the Middle East and North Africa Center at the US Institute of Peace. 

The negotiations are being led by ​​Amos Hochstein, Special Presidential Coordinator for International Energy. He launched mediations between Israel and Lebanon in mid-October, following up on talks that were initiated during the former Trump administration in 2020. 

The talks have gained little attention, in part because of greater world crises such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But this also reflects an effort on the part of the administration to maintain a low profile. 

“I think this is being managed quite well on the part of the administration and Amos Hochstein in particular,” Yacoubian said.

“He’s really been very diligent in his shuttle diplomacy. I think he’s demonstrating, really, and he’s embodying what the hard work of diplomacy looks like and, if there is a deal, what it can yield.” 

The agreement is expected to draw a border between Israel and Lebanon in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and demarcate claims that both Beirut and Jerusalem identify as their exclusive economic zone. It would sort out how the two nations could benefit from exploration of the Karish natural gas field.

Lebanese officials are signaling major progress in reaching a deal. Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati said during his speech at the General Assembly that “we have achieved tangible progress which we hope will reach its aspired conclusions soon.”

Part of the progress is a consensus between Israel and Lebanon on the benefits of resolving the maritime boundary. Israel wants to avoid conflict with Lebanon and generally advance its relations in the region, and Lebanon is in dire need of any economic benefit that would come from being able to explore gas extraction in this part of the Mediterranean Sea. 

While the agreement on the maritime boundary is unlikely to yield immediate economic benefits for Lebanon, which is viewed as being in a crisis economic state, it is viewed as a positive development. 

Energean, the Greek-British energy company that holds a license to develop the Karish gas field, said in a September press release, “It remains on track to deliver first gas from the Karish development project within weeks.”

The development of the fields could help European countries wean themselves off Russian natural gas.

“As Europeans seek substitutes for Russian energy sources, the eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly important in that regard,” Yacoubian said. 

Hezbollah that controls southern Lebanon and holds immense power in the country, has over the last few weeks increased the number of its threatening statements against Israel over the border negotiations and gas extraction. 

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah said last week, “We are following up on the negotiations and all our eyes are on Karish and our missiles are locked on Karish.” He warned Israel against extracting gas in the absence of an agreement with Lebanon. 

“The red line to us is that there should not be extraction from Karish,” he said, in televised remarks reported by the Naharnet news site. 

A spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid responded in a statement that gas extraction is not connected to the US-mediated negotiations. 

“Israel believes that it is both possible and necessary to reach an agreement on a maritime line between Lebanon and Israel. … The production of gas from the Karish rig is not connected to these negotiations, and the production of gas from the rig will commence without delay, as soon as it is possible,” the statement read.

In a briefing with reporters on Wednesday in New York, Lapid said, “Israel is strong and knows how to defend itself” if an agreement is not reached with Lebanon addressing Israel’s “security, diplomatic and economic needs,” Axios reported. 

Yacoubian, of the Institute of Peace, said that Nasrallah’s threats appear to be “theater.” 

“It’s a lot of saber rattling, but that might be because it’s a prelude to a negotiated agreement,” she said. 

“In other words, saber rattling as a way of Hezbollah establishing itself as an actor working towards Lebanon’s benefit — so that when this deal comes, they shape their role in that way, that it was partly their pressure, their strong line on defending Lebanon’s interests that helped get Lebanon a deal.”

Hawkish regional watchers believe Nasrallah’s threats are laying the groundwork for an outbreak of conflict. Israel views Hezbollah as one of its greatest security threats and an arm of Iran’s greater ambitions to attack the Jewish state.

“The Iranians, in their stomach, are trying to take revenge against Israel,” said Eitan Dangot, President of the Association of Oil and Gas Exploration Industries in Israel and former Chief of the Israel Home Front Command. 

“Hezbollah is not working for the defense of Lebanon; Iran is giving it the green light to open its missile storage on Israel.”

Hezbollah’s determined threats against Israel are a point the Israel Defense Forces constantly reinforce to the world. The IDF has destroyed, but preserved, at least half a dozen Hezbollah tunnels dug under Israel’s northern border.

They regularly bring international visitors to tour the tunnels, marching them 80 meters, or more than 260 feet, underground to view the sophisticated engineering needed to burrow through solid bedrock and demonstrate what they say is Hezbollah’s determination to wage war on Israel.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield visited the tunnels in November, and the IDF tweeted a photo of a delegation of ambassadors and diplomats visiting the tunnels in March.  

‏”Seeing the tunnel with your own eyes changes your perception completely. Only then can you truly understand the lengths Hezbollah goes to in order to harm Israeli civilians,” Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, IDF International spokesperson, told The Hill. 

 

 

Who will be next President of United States?

The statement of US President Joe Biden that it remains to be seen if he’ll run for reelection has prompted more Democratic chatter about whether they’ll have a different candidate for the White House in 2024. 

If Biden doesn’t run again, a number of Democrats are expected to wade into the presidential waters. Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t seen as a definitive leading contender in such a situation, Democrats acknowledge privately.  

“There’s not one clear candidate and there’s not a rising star,” said one top Democratic donor.  

Here’s who is generating the most talk and the most confidence.  

Kamala Harris 

While Harris, 57, has seen her own approval ratings fall at times during an up-and-down tenure as vice president, she remains the top non-Biden possibility for 2024.  

Strategists say it would be difficult to convince Black women — who helped catapult Biden to the White House — to vote for anyone else as the party’s standard-bearer.   

And as one strategist pointed out, “No one is going to win the nomination without winning in the South.” 

While Harris had a rocky start during the first year of the administration, generating headlines for both gaffes and a string of staff departures, she has settled into the role.  

She has also made women’s rights one of her issues out on the trail, an issue that can only help her political prospects with the Democratic base as the Supreme Court decision overturning the Roe v. Wade ruling on abortion rights continues to reverberate. 

Pete Buttigieg 

The Transportation Secretary has been a popular figure in the Democratic Party since his 2020 presidential run, when he surprised the base with his come-out-of-nowhere ascent.  

Buttigieg’s current role has sent him around the country to boast about popular infrastructure projects —something that can only help him down the road.  

Just last month, Buttigieg, 40, appeared in the swing states of Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada and Ohio.  Buttigieg’s stature with voters could have taken a beating with the railway strike earlier this month but after Biden’s late-hour intervention, it never amounted, solidifying his standing with Democratic voters. 

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer 

The two Biden administration fixtures are the top two non-Biden Democrats on our list. The most likely alternatives after them are two governors. The first is Michigan’s governor, who came closer than many realize to being Biden’s pick for vice president.  

Now Whitmer, 51, is catching the eyes of Democrats as she runs for reelection.  

This week, she opened up a 16-point lead over her Republican opponent Tudor Dixon in a Detroit Free Press poll.  

Whitmer has made it a point to lean in on abortion rights, in particular. At a recent event she highlighted her role in the fight.  

“The only reason Michigan continues to be pro-choice state is because of my veto and my lawsuit,” she said, according to CNN. The remarks refer to a lawsuit Whitmer filed to prevent a Michigan abortion ban from happening.  

She often points out she filed the lawsuit even before Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court in June, a move that will surely appeal to the base in the coming years.  

Gov. Gavin Newsom  

At a time when Democrats have been craving a leader who would get in the faces of Republicans, Newsom, the California governor, appeared to do battle.  

Newsom, 54, made headlines in July when he took the fight directly to Ron DeSantis (R), running an ad in the Sunshine State blasting the Florida governor and the conservative culture there.  

“Freedom, it’s under attack in your state. Republican leaders, they’re banning books, making it harder to vote, restricting speech in classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors,” he said in the spot, which ran on Fox News programming throughout the state.  

Earlier this month, he continued his aggressive stance by paying for billboards in some conservative states including Mississippi, Texas, Indiana and Oklahoma. His message, Abortion is still legal in California. 

“He has still got a lot to prove but he has certainly made Democrats pay attention,” one strategist said.  

Sen. Elizabeth Warren

The one-time presidential hopeful has made it clear she has one race on her mind in 2024: her own reelection to the Senate.  

But Democrats say there would be a place for her if Biden decides not to run again.  

Warren, 73, has continued to be a top advocate on Capitol Hill for issues important to Democrats including climate change, abortion rights and gun safety.  

But when she’s asked about the next presidential election, she consistently punts.  

“We’ve got to stop the catnip about 2024,” she told Axios this summer. “If we start getting tangled up on 2024, and fail to pay attention to business in 2022, that is not only going to hurt us in 2022. It is going to bite us on the rear end in 2024.”  

Sen. Bernie Sanders

It’s tough for some Democrats to see the senator from Vermont launching another presidential campaign.

After all, he is 81 years old and — if elected — would be nearing 90 by the end of his term.  

But Sanders has become such a staple of the Democratic Party since his first White House bid in 2016 that it’s hard to rule out a run. And if he did compete, he’d definitely have support. 

Whenever there’s a debate that matters to the base — on student loans or climate change — he’s at the heart of it, one strategist pointed out.  

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Almost no one in the Democratic Party has had the meteoric rise of “AOC,” as she’s known.  

And while most strategists doubt that the congresswoman from New York will run for president just yet, her name is constantly bandied about when Democrats complain that their bench is weak.  

The number one question strategists ask when they talk about her is whether she’ll even be of age to run for the highest office in the land. The answer is just barely: she turns 35 a month before the 2024 election.  

Besides her age, another question that would undoubtedly come up is whether Ocasio-Cortez’s politics are too liberal to win a Democratic primary or general election.  

 

Volodymyr Zelensky: From comedian to an icon of Jew fraternity

The Jerusalem Post has released a report ‘Top 50 Most Influential Jews of 2022’. Guess who occupies the first position, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

There are not many political leaders who find themselves elevated to icon status, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky became one of them in year 2022.

First he was regarded as a curiosity – if someone outside Ukraine thought about him at all – because of having played the role of President of Ukraine in a sitcom before playing the role in real life.

But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February this year thrust him into the spotlight and tested him in a way that few leaders in today’s world have been tested.

With an artist’s keen eye for the importance of optics, Zelensky began exclusively wearing olive green T-shirts. He embarked on a world tour via Zoom to admonish Western governments for insufficiently helping him beat back Russia, customizing the speech to fit each capital’s history and concerns.

His toughness and courage have become legendary and earned him comparisons to Winston Churchill. There’s little evidence that he actually said “I need ammunition, not a ride” when US President Joe Biden offered to evacuate him from Kyiv, but it seemed like something he would say, and that was enough for the quote to go viral.

The embattled leader has changed the world order in a way not seen since the fall of the Iron Curtain in the late 1980s, getting almost the entire western world aligned against Russia and its powerful president, Vladimir Putin.

Sweden and Finland have applied to become members of NATO; unprecedented American and European Union sanctions have been imposed on Russia, its top officials and industries; and US weapons, until now not meant for export to Ukraine, have been sent to Kyiv. 

A lot of this is to the credit of Zelensky, who - through a sophisticated use of the media and diplomacy - got the world to take action in a way not seen for decades.

“The nations of the free world, inspired by the example of President Zelensky, are more united, more determined, and more purposeful than at any point in recent memory,” US President Joe Biden wrote in Time Magazine in May.

“With the support of the US and our allies and partners, he has left his mark on history and proved to the world that Ukraine will long endure and its people will ultimately realize the democratic future they have long desired.”

Zelensky’s Jewishness has made for an interesting subplot to the bigger picture. He was born to Jewish parents, and his grandfather’s father and three brothers were murdered in the Holocaust. As a teenager, he was offered a scholarship to study in Israel, which his father forced him to turn down. He later married a non-Jewish woman, and his children were baptized.

The fact that Zelensky was Jewish played no role in his 2019 election campaign, and the candidate himself downplayed it, saying “the fact that I am a Jew is about the 20th question among my characteristics.”

But with his country not only under attack, but under attack while Russian propagandists claimed that they were “de-Nazifying” Ukraine, Zelensky was ready to bring that characteristic to the fore. He and other Ukrainian leaders and representatives asked how his country could possibly be a Nazi state if it is led by a Jewish president.

Zelensky’s speech to the Knesset leaned hard on the theme of World War II and the Holocaust.

“They called it ‘the Final Solution to the Jewish issue.’ You remember that, and I am sure you will never forget,” he said. “Hear how these words are said again in Moscow ‘Final solution,’ but in relation to us, to the ‘Ukrainian issue.’”

The matter of Zelensky’s being Jewish has come up in his own pressure and that of others for Israel to take more action against Russia and in favor of Ukraine: “You can definitely help us protect... the lives of Ukrainian Jews,” he told the Knesset, asking why Israel hasn’t sent Kyiv weapons or imposed sanctions on Russia. “It is up to you, dear brothers and sisters... and you will have to live with this answer.”

For all of Zelensky’s influence on the world today, his Jewish background did not sway Israel to take what its leaders saw as too great a risk in light of the Russian army’s presence in Syria and the tenuous situation of Jews in Russia.

Yet, as he continues to lead Ukraine in the fight against Russia, in a war that has shaken the world’s energy and food markets and awoken Europe from a relatively comfortable and peaceful existence, Zelensky is one of the most influential people in the world today, period – not just the world’s most influential Jew.

 

China urges US to stop plundering Syrian oil

The Chinese government has called on the White House to stop plundering Syrian national resources, while calling on US officials to respect sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“We call on the United States to respect Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, unilaterally lift sanctions, and end the theft of Syria’s national resources,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a briefing.

Since early August, there have been at least 10 oil thefts by US troops in Syria. Some 800 tankers were used to transport stolen oil to US bases outside of Syria. In the meantime, Syrian people have had to queue for hours to fill up at the gas station.

According to the Asian spokesman, the US government has a duty to investigate robberies committed by intervening military forces, as well as to compensate for the damages caused.

In this sense, the diplomat said, “This is not the first time that the United States military has stolen oil from Syria and they seem to be becoming more and more uncontrollable.”

From this he cited Syria’s Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources, which said, “The US military and their backed armed forces exported 82 percent of the barrels of Syrian oil in the first half of 2022.”

For its part, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said last week that around 40 civilian facilities had been destroyed or damaged in fighting by US forces.

In return, the Syrian Foreign Ministry has condemned the serious damage inflicted by US forces and their armed groups in the oil and gas sector since the US intervention in the conflict.

 

Why is west critical of Iranian regime?

It is suspected that the recent protests being staged in Iran are funded from outside. The propagators have two objectives: 1) create unrest in Iran and 2) portray that the present regime of clerics is autocratic.

One completely fails to understand, if rules of a country do not allow certain attire or certain conduct, why should the west support the rebel group/groups?

In my view these rebel groups are created, provided funds and given excessive coverage by the western news agencies, which is often an attempt to create ‘a storm in a teacup.   

The latest round of mass protests in Iran erupted over the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman. Allegedly, she died on September16 at the hands of the morality police for violating Iran’s rules on mandatory veiling in public.

According to the Western media, Amini’s tragic death is yet another reminder of how the Islamist rulers in Tehran remain tone-deaf to the demands of the Iranian people. Opposition to mandatory wearing of the veil, or hijab, is one in a long list of public grievances.

It is being portrayed that the conditions that led to Amini’s death were not accidental. It is part and parcel of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s attitude toward any political dissent.

The western media accuses that he continues to believe that violent repression will drive protesters to retreat. But his policy choices are only deepening public anger against the Islamic Republic. Not only is Khamenei inciting the Iranian people against the regime, but his insistence on mandatory hijab-wearing is splitting the Islamic clerical class.

Western media goes to the extent of saying that Khamenei engineered for Ebrahim Raisi to become Iran’s president in sham elections held in June 2021. Once in office, Raisi was supposed to focus on creating jobs, building new housing, and tackling corruption.

None of these promises have been kept. Instead, the Raisi government has allocated additional funds to the country’s security forces to more strictly enforce Iran’s mandatory hijab law. There are reports that Iran is now looking to introduce Chinese-style mass electronic surveillance of the public.

Why focus on enforcing such a highly unpopular policy? In Khamenei’s mind, compromising with the Iranian people in one area will only result in a cascade of demands for change in others, from domestic to foreign policy. That’s why Khamenei, from the top, has given orders to crack down on the anti-hijab movement.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index witnesses 2.5%WoW decline

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained under pressure during the week ended on September 23, 2022, driven by renewed weakness in the PKR against the USD and concerns regarding the country’s fiscal health.

Participation in the market remained lackluster, with average daily traded volumes averaging 166.1 million shares during the week under review as compared to 183.2 million shares a week ago.

The benchmark index, KSE-100 Index lost 1,059.28 points during the week, depicting a 2.5%WoW decline. The PKR continued to lose value against the US$, depreciating 1.2% during the week.

Furthermore, the SBP conducted the T-Bill auction this week, where the central bank raised PKR1.3 trillion against a target of PKR1.5 trillion. The cut-off yields for the 3-month and 12-month tenors remained largely flat, whereas the yield for 6-month increased by 15bps to 16%.

Other major news inflows during the week were: Saudi Fund for Development confirmed a one-year extension of US$3 billion deposit, 2) Initial estimates pointed towards flood losses to be US$30 billion, 3) IMF announced that it would support Pakistan’s flood relief, reconstruction efforts under the current program, 4) Russia agreed to provide petrol to Pakistan on deferred payments, 5) In July 2022, LSMI output was down by 16.5%MoM, 6) SPI was down by 8.11%WoW, and 7) CAD dropped 42%MoM to US$703 million in August 2022.

The top performing sectors were: Tobacco, and Synthetic & Rayon, while the least favorite were: Close-End Mutual Fund and Oil & Gas Exploration Companies.

Top performing stocks were: PAKT, IBFL, UNITY, TRG and NESTLE, while laggards were: TGL, HGFA, CEPB, KEL and PPL.

Foreign investors emerged the major buyers with net buy of US$5.1 million, followed by Individuals (US$1.5 million). As against this, Insurance Companies were the biggest sellers with US$3.3 million, followed by Mutual Funds (US$2.4 million).

Going forward, the easing off in international commodity prices, particularly oil is expected to be a welcomed development as the pressures on the external account start to recede.

On the flip side, the strength in the US$ following the 75bps policy rate increase in the US is expected to put pressure on the exchange rate, which could murk sentiment.

Investors will be looking towards any policy action in the upcoming Monetary Policy, scheduled for October 10, 2022.

However, the economic slowdown—an intended outcome of the SBP’s contractionary policies—and effects of floods across the country could adversely affect sentiment going forward. Investors are to stay cautious, while building new positions in the market.

Container spot rates plunge 58% since January

According to Seatrade Maritime News, container spot rates have fallen by 10% for the fourth week running as increasingly looks like the sector could be in for a hard landing.

The bell weather Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has lost another 10.4% over the last week to be recorded at 2072.04 some 240.61 points lower than week earlier.

The SCFI is now 59% lower than it was in January this year when it stood at all time high of 5,051 points.

It was a similar picture for the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) which reported a 10%WoW decline on Thursday to $4,471.99 per feu. It the 30th week in a row that the WCI has fallen and the index is now 57% lower than the same period last year.

According to Drewry spot rates on Shanghai – Los Angeles fell 11% or $473 to US$3,779 per feu last week, while rates on Shanghai – Rotterdam dropped by 10% to US$ 6,027 per feu.

Rates are expected to continue falling and Drewry said it expects the index to decrease in over the next few weeks.

As Seatrade Maritime News reported earlier lines have responded by aggressively pulling capacity from major trades ahead of the Golden Week in China, but still rates continue to fall. According to Xeneta capacity on the trade between Asia and the US West Coast is 13% lower than it was in the same period in 2021 – the equivalent of 21 ships of 8,000 teu – the average vessel size on the trade.

“And still, the spot rates are falling… which is bound to impact on the long-term contracted agreements in the near-to-mid-term. Are we beginning to see a wakeup call for carriers after such a prolonged period of growth?” said Peter Sand, Xeneta’s Chief Analyst.

Container line profits could come under pressure in the coming months as their customers look to renegotiate long term contracts fixed at the market’s peak.

Supply chain software company Shifl said there had been a recent acceleration in the drop in spot rates and carriers are attempting to renegotiate long term contracts secured when rates were higher.

High longterm contract rates are expected to support container line earnings well into next year, stretching the financial benefits to lines of the congestion-backed peak in rates last year.

Both Hapag-Lloyd and Yang Ming said shippers have asked to renegotiate deals, the former saying it is standing firm and the latter open to hearing customers’ requests.

 “With the increasing pressure from shippers, shipping lines may not have a choice but to accede to customer demands as contract holders are known to simply shift their volumes to the spot market,” said Shabsie Levy, CEO and Founder of Shifl.

The pressure on lines and shippers alike comes from a steep drop in spot rates. Shifl’s forwarded-driven rate index Shifex recorded its lowest rate for two years on the Shanghai-LA route; at US$3,500 per feu, the rate is down 80% on-year.

On the China-New York route, rates have held up slightly better but are still down 59% on-year at US$7,950 per feu compare to a high of US$19,600 in September 2021.

“While in July, there was a relatively steady decline in spot rates, the pace has definitely picked up as a milieu of factors continue to soften the market for containerized goods between China and the rest of the world.

Tightening monetary policy, a shift in consumer spending, bloated inventories in the US, and growing geopolitical tensions between the US and China continue to play a role in the movement of rates,” said Levy.

“With the latest dramatic slump in rates, the market is closer than ever to the pre-pandemic rate levels, especially to the largest entry ports in the USA - Los Angeles and Long Beach,” said Levy.

Shifl also noted a drop in transit times on Asia-US routes as congestion—one of the factors that supported high freight rates over the past two years—begins to clear.

Transit times on the main China - LA/ Long Beach route fell by 25% in August to 24 days, levels last seen in July 2021 and moving closer to pre-pandemic levels of 16 days.

That reduction is partly fuelled by a movement of cargoes from the West to East coast, however, and China-New York transit times edged up from 46 to 50 days in August.

“The ripple effect of the shift in cargoes from West Coast to East Coast is taking its biggest toll now in New York with an overflow of empties and shortage of chassis. We expect this to improve soon as lower volume forecasts will ease the pressure off the system,” said Levy.