Has the game begun to promote Kamala Harris as next President of United States?

Reportedly poll numbers of Vice President Kamala Harris are rising, while numbers of President Joe Biden are falling. Kamala has rebounded in recent weeks, regaining her footing with approval ratings that now stand higher than Biden.

Harris got off to a rocky start at the beginning of the administration, including a botched response on why she hadn’t traveled to the Mexican border, when she said she hadn’t been to Europe either.

But her allies say Harris, whose difficult start provoked questions about her ability to be a future presidential candidate for the party, “has found her place” in the White House. 

“I think there’s definitely a feeling that things have been smoother,” said one ally. “It seems like they have ironed out some of the initial wrinkles.” 

Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, said Harris has “started to solidify her position and strengthen the office, gaining a sense — always difficult for a VP — of what her role should be in the administration.”

“The key will be how those numbers hold as policy controversies continue and politics heats up,” he added.

A Gallup poll last week showed 49% approved of Harris’s job as vice president, 6 points higher than Biden’s 43% approval rating. It’s a significant change for both Biden and Harris. The president fell 6 points since August and 13 points since June. Harris’s current approval rating is the same as Biden’s in 2009, when he served as Barack Obama’s vice president.

The September 22, 2021 Gallup poll — conducted earlier in the month — also revealed that the vice president performed better than Biden with independents, a stunning revelation for a man who was catapulted to the White House because of support from that demographic.

It’s unclear why Harris’s numbers have risen higher than Biden’s in some surveys, though Biden in the last two months has gone through the most difficult phase of his presidency so far. Biden has received bipartisan criticism related to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and has also taken some hits over the prolonged coronavirus pandemic.

The president has also been criticized over his handling of the border and immigration, taking hits from the left and the right over an influx of migrants from Haiti for the last few weeks.

Harris, in contrast, has been more in the background than the foreground on those controversies, though she did win headlines for criticizing the way some Haitian migrants were being treated by border agents.

Most Democratic strategists and observers say Harris hasn’t had a singular moment or two that has boosted her in the public realm. 

“Nothing specific,” said Basil Smikle, the Democratic strategist and former Executive Director of the New York State Democratic Party, when asked if there has been a standout moment for the vice president.

He suggested the White House could actually benefit by doing more with Harris.

Smikle said that while Harris has been accessible, for example by appearing at Howard University’s homecoming, “the White House could bring her in more closely — as other administrations have — but they seem to keep her at a little distance, which may have been helpful to her in the long run.”

Other strategists say Harris has benefitted from Republicans setting their sights on Biden in recent weeks. They have portrayed him as weak on the border and Afghanistan.

“My instinct is to say that so much fire has been aimed at Biden, Harris’s numbers have gone up by sheer virtue of being out of the spotlight,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer added. “She’s not giving anyone fresh reason to dislike her, so her polling numbers revert to the mean, with the country about evenly divided on the Black woman in the No. 2 spot.”

But Harris has appeared to settle into more of a role in her vice presidency. Last week, she hosted the leaders of Zambia, Ghana and India separately. On Wednesday, she hosted a meeting with five Latino small-business leaders.

Harris has been increasingly active politically too, giving a forceful speech for Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), fundraising for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe and attending an event at George Mason University for National Voter Registration Day. 

To be sure, Harris’s polling numbers are not spectacular. The same Gallup poll that showed her with a 49% approval rating showed she had a 49% disapproval rating. Other polls in the last month also show her with support in the low or mid-40s, though some polls in August had her hovering in the mid- to high 30s. 

Not everything has gone to plan for Harris either. Aides and allies grew frustrated last week after she was scheduled for an in-studio interview on “The View,” but two of the hosts were pulled from the set after they tested positive for COVID-19. 

Harris conducted the interview virtually as a precaution, even though she had flown from Washington to New York for the program. The hosts subsequently tested negative, and the tests were ruled a false positive. 

The Harris ally called the incident “unfortunate” while saying Harris needs to continue to up her national stature for her own political prospects. 

“I think we’re all happy to see her settle into her role and find her bearings, but I think even she knows she has a long way to go,” the ally said

Countering drug trade in Afghanistan

According to reports, Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) urged President Joe Biden administration on Wednesday to provide a plan on how it will counter the illicit narcotics trade in Afghanistan. 

Jordan asked the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) if the administration has a strategy in place to address Afghanistan's opium and heroin trade in light of the Taliban’s takeover of the country.

“The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan due to President Biden’s reckless and chaotic withdrawal has created a power vacuum that has emboldened terrorist groups and threatened our vital national security interests. It has also led to the Taliban seizing control of the illicit drug trade in Afghanistan that will help to finance its terror activities,” Jordan said.

The Republican congressman cited a July report from the ONDCP that said more than 80 percent of the global heroin supply originates in Afghanistan and that poppy cultivation increased in 2020, following a two-year decline. 

The Taliban said in August it would ban the production of opium poppies after years of profiting from it.

“To date, President Biden has not yet established a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy to tackle our country’s drug crisis. This failure is particularly concerning in light of the Biden border crisis and the surge of illegal alien encounters at the southwest border,” Jordan said.

He also asked if ONDCP meets with the State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, the Defense Department, and the Drug Enforcement Administration about drug eradication efforts, seizing illicit narcotics in transit, or deterring access to drug trafficking routes.

He questioned if ONDCP also works with those entities to enhance the capacity to stop the flow of illicit narcotics leaving Afghanistan and if programs the US had with Afghanistan to counter the drug trade have been terminated with the Taliban’s takeover.

Jordan requested answers from Regina LaBelle, acting director of ONDCP, by October 13, 2021. 

The July report from the ONDCP found that 90 percent of heroin seized and tested in the US originates from Mexico, despite the majority of the global supply originating in Afghanistan. The White House released the ONDCP report in July, prior to the fall of Afghanistan, and touted that President Biden’s budget request calls for US$10.7 billion in investments for populations at greatest risk or overdose and substance abuse.

Pakistan facing repercussions of “Absolutely Not”

On Wednesday the benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange lost about 2% (908 points). The fall has been attributed to a bill being moved in the US senate. Foreign Office spokesperson Asim Iftikhar Ahmad said that "unwarranted" references to Pakistan in a bill that was recently introduced in the United States Senate was "inconsistent" with the spirit of cooperation that had existed between the two countries on Afghanistan since 2001.

"We see that a debate is under way in Washington both in the media and on Capitol Hill to reflect on and examine the circumstances leading to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The draft legislation introduced in the US Senate by a group of Senate Republicans seems to be a reaction to this debate," he said in a statement.

However, the references to Pakistan in the bill were "completely unwarranted", he said. Terming those references as "inconsistent in spirit" with Pak-US cooperation on Afghanistan since the American invasion in 2001, he recalled that Pakistan had facilitated the Afghan peace process and helped evacuate citizens of the US and other countries from Afghanistan in August.

Ahmad reiterated that Pakistan had always maintained that there was no military solution to the conflict in Afghanistan. It had also stressed that a coercive approach would not work and the only way to achieve sustainable peace in the war-torn country was through engagement and dialogue, he added.

He noted that sustained security cooperation between Pakistan and the US would "remain critical in dealing with any future terrorist threat in the region".

"Such proposed legislative measures are, therefore, uncalled for and counterproductive," the spokesperson said.

Twenty-two US senators moved a bill in the Senate on Monday that seeks to assess Pakistan's alleged role in Afghanistan before and after the fall of Kabul and in the Taliban offensive in Panjshir Valley.

Senator Jim Risch, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and other Republicans introduced the Afghanistan Counterterrorism, Oversight, and Accountability Act to address outstanding issues related to the Biden administration's "rushed and disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan".

The proposed legislation calls for a comprehensive report on who supported the Taliban during America's 20 years in Afghanistan, helped the group in capturing Kabul in mid-August and supported their offensive on Panjshir Valley.

The first report shall include "an assessment of support by state and non-state actors, including the government of Pakistan, for the Taliban between 2001 and 2020", including the provision of sanctuary space, financial support, intelligence support, logistics and medical support, training, equipping, and tactical, operation or strategic direction, according to the bill.

The legislation also requires "an assessment of support by state and non-state actors, including the government of Pakistan, for the September 2021 offensive of the Taliban against the Panjshir Valley and the Afghan resistance".

The proposed bill also seeks to impose sanctions on the Taliban and others in Afghanistan for terrorism, drug-trafficking, and human rights abuses, as well as on those providing support to the Taliban, including foreign governments.

It states that the US should not recognize any member of the Taliban as the ambassador of Afghanistan to the United States or as the ambassador of Afghanistan to the United Nations, and places restrictions on non-humanitarian foreign assistance to the war-torn country.

It also calls for a comprehensive review of foreign assistance to entities that support the Taliban.

Top US generals contradict President Joe Biden

Top US military officials told lawmakers on Tuesday that they had recommended 2,500 US troops remain in Afghanistan, contradicting comments made by President Joe Biden earlier this year.

Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of US Central Command, and Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, each acknowledged during public congressional testimony that they agreed with the recommendation of Army Gen. Austin Miller that 2,500 troops be left in the country, though they denied to detail what they advised Biden directly.

Biden announced his decision to end US military involvement in Afghanistan back in April.

“I won’t share my personal recommendation to the president, but I will give you my honest opinion, and my honest opinion and view shaped my recommendation. I recommended that we maintain 2,500 troops in Afghanistan. And I also recommended earlier in the fall of 2020 that we maintain 4,500 at that time. Those are my personal views,” McKenzie told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday under questioning from Sen. James Inhofe (Okla.), the panel’s top Republican.

McKenzie said it had been his view that the full US withdrawal would lead to the collapse of Afghan forces and government.

Milley said he agreed with that assessment and that it was his personal view dating back to last fall that the US should maintain at least 2,500 troops in Afghanistan to move toward a peace agreement between the Taliban and Afghan government. Milley declined to comment directly on his specific discussions with Biden when questioned by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.).

Asked whether Miller discussed his recommendation with Biden, McKenzie told lawmakers he believed his opinion “was well-heard.”

Republican lawmakers repeatedly raised the matter in the context of an interview Biden gave to ABC News in August during which he denied that his top military commanders recommended he leave 2,500 troops in Afghanistan.

“Your top military advisers warned against withdrawing on this timeline. They wanted you to keep about 2,500 troops,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos said to Biden in the interview.

“No, they didn't,” Biden replied. “It was split. That wasn't true.”

“Your military advisers did not tell you, ‘No, we should just keep 2,500 troops. It's been a stable situation for the last several years. We can do that. We can continue to do that’?” Stephanopoulos later pressed.

“No one said that to me that I can recall,” Biden replied.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki tweeted Tuesday afternoon that leaving 2,500 troops in Afghanistan would have escalated the conflict due to the Trump administration’s deal with the Taliban to withdraw.

“As @POTUS told ABC, ending the war in Afghanistan was in our national interest. He said advice was split, but consensus of top military advisors was 2500 troops staying meant escalation due to deal by the previous admin. @SecDef, the Chairman, and GEN McKenzie all reiterated,” Psaki tweeted.

Psaki further defended Biden's past comments during an afternoon press briefing, saying he was given a range of advice and that remaining in Afghanistan would have necessitated a further troop increase while risking lives of US service members. 

“The president is always going to welcome a range of advice. He asks for candor. He asks for directness. And in any scenario he’s not looking for a bunch of 'yes' men and women,” Psaki told reporters, adding that it is up to Biden to ultimately decide “what's in the best interest of the United States.”

Milley said during the hearing that the US would have been back at war with the Taliban if forces had stayed beyond August 31, 2021.

Military generals unanimously recommended that Biden stick to the August 31 withdrawal date on August 25, Milley said, when Biden was considering extending the deadline to accommodate the evacuation mission.

Asked about the ABC News exchange on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called Biden an “honest and forthright man.”

“Their input was received by the president and considered by the president, for sure,” Austin told Cotton when asked if Biden’s statement to ABC was true. “In terms of what they specifically recommended, senator, as they just said, they’re not going to provide what they recommended in confidence.”

Later during the hearing, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) grilled the witnesses on whether Biden made a false statement in the interview.

“That was a false statement, by the president of the United States, was it not?” Sullivan asked.

“I didn’t even see the statement, to tell you the truth,” Milley replied, adding, “I’m not going to characterize a statement of the president of the United States.”

In April, Biden ordered the full US military withdrawal from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021. US forces completed the withdrawal by August 31, capping a chaotic exit and evacuation mission from the war-torn country after the Taliban gained control of Kabul earlier the same month.

Miller appeared before lawmakers for classified testimony earlier this month. Tuesday's hearing was the first time that top military officials have testified publicly since the August withdrawal.

Investors getting jittery

USD traded sharply higher against all of the major currencies on Tuesday as Treasury yields surged and stocks plummeted. With several factors driving investors out of risk assets, FX traders need to beware of the possibility of risk aversion intensifying over the next few days. From surging commodity prices, the prospect of tighter monetary policies, risk of the US government shutdown and even a credit default, there are plenty of reasons to be worried.  

The cost of natural gas is skyrocketing and the increase is spilling over to oil. In the last 2 days, natural gas prices rose more than 10% and in the past year, it is up 180%. Heading into the cooler fall and winter months, households will be hit by significantly more expensive heating bills. The energy crisis is so severe that in countries like the UK and China, there have been forced blackouts and factory shutdowns.  In some Chinese provinces, traffic lights have been turned off. 

Aside from having a direct impact on pocketbooks, higher natural gas and oil prices is also a problem for inflation. In comments made today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that “it’s fair to say that” inflation is broader, more structural and more concerning than earlier this year. More specifically he said supply chain constraints like shortages of chips “have not only not gotten better – they’ve actually gotten worse.” Stickier inflation increases the need for less accommodation, which is positive for rates, negative for stocks and risk currencies. Considering that no one expects the energy crisis or supply chain bottlenecks to be resolved quickly, risk aversion could intensify, leading to demand for USD, JPY and Swiss Franc.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the government would not be able to make all of their payments if the debt ceiling is not raised by October 18th.  Companies like JPMorgan said they have begun preparing for a potential US credit default. Although it is very unlikely, if that happens the consequences for the markets would be brief but significant. Equities and currencies would fall sharply.

The government’s current funding expires on October 1st and lawmakers are rushing to pass legislation that would avoid a partial shutdown. There’s a lot going on in Washington this week and the battle on Capitol Hill is hurting and not helping risk appetite.  Consumer confidence weakened in September and given recent developments, we expect further deterioration this month.

With no major economic reports on the calendar on Wednesday, equities and Treasuries will drive currency flows. The Bank of England and Reserve Bank of New Zealand may be two of the least dovish central banks but their currencies have been hit the hardest by risk aversion.

The UK is dealing with its own petrol crisis worsened by driver shortage. EUR remains the most resilient, experiencing only modest losses due to euro’s low yield. Risk aversion is normally negative for USD/JPY but 10 year Treasury yields which rose to its highest level since June is having greater influence on USD flows.

Israel trying to buy out loyalty of Jordan

Israeli Channel 12 reported that Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has secretly met with King Abdullah of Jordan as Prime Minister Naftali Bennett embarked for New York where he was expected to meet with Bahraini and UAE ministers and speak at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). 

Bennett and President Isaac Herzog have also met with King Abdullah, in what is seen as a series of overtures to repair Israel's relationship with the Hashemite Kingdom that had become strained under former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure.

Lapid and King Abdullah discussed the tensions in Jerusalem, including around the Temple Mount, known to Muslims as al-Haram al-Sharif. The two men also spoke of ways to improve ties between Israel and Jordan, acceding to Channel 12.

It added that the Biden administration received a report of the visit.

Bennett's government has also signed a major water deal with the Hashemite Kingdom that almost doubled the amount of water Israel sends to Jordan. It also agreed to allow Jordan to increase its exports to Palestinian areas of the West Bank.

Israel's longest border is with Jordan and the stability of it is vital for Israel's security. 

Anti Iran stance of Bennett can’t make him true successor of Netanyahu

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett addressed the UN General Assembly for the first time, barely 100 days after he was sworn in, ending Benjamin Netanyahu's more than decade-long premiership. 

"For way too long, Israel was defined by wars with our neighbors," Bennett said in his address. "But this is not what Israel is about. This is not what the people of Israel are about. Israelis don’t wake up in the morning thinking about the conflict. Israelis want to lead a good life, take care of our families, and build a better world for our children."

Bennett warned the assembly that two problems – the coronavirus and political polarization – were "challenging the very fabric of society at this moment" and has the ability to "paralyze nations." 

“Israel had rejected polarization by forming the government he leads, what started as a political accident can now turn into a purpose," Bennett said. "And that purpose is unity. Today we sit together, around one table. We speak to each other with respect, we act with decency, and we carry a message: Things can be different."

As for the pandemic, Bennett said Israel had successfully developed a model for managing it by rejecting lockdowns and embracing booster shots. "Lockdowns, restrictions, quarantines – cannot work in the long run," he said. The government's decision to begin providing booster shots was a tough one, given the fact that the US Food and Drug Administration hadn't approved them, but it ultimately paid off, Bennett stated, saying that Israel "pioneered the booster shot."

Turning to the issue of Iran, Bennett blamed Tehran for funding, training and arming groups that "seek to dominate the Middle East and spread radical Islam across the world," as well as to destroy Israel. Furthermore, he said, Iran is trying to dominate the region by stretching its presence into Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza, and "every place Iran touches – fails."

Bennett also warned that Iran's nuclear weapons program had "hit a watershed moment, and so has our patience," saying that Tehran has crossed all red lines and ignored international inspections. "Words do not stop centrifuges from spinning," he said.

Bennett took the opportunity to criticize countries that took part in a commemoration marking the 20th anniversary of the adoption of the Durban Declaration and Program of Action.

"And to those countries who chose to participate in this farce, I say', Attacking Israel doesn’t make you morally superior, fighting the only democracy in the Middle East doesn’t make you "woke", adopting clichés about Israel without bothering to learn the basic facts, well, that's just plain lazy," he said.

The prime minister did not address the Palestinian issue after last week’s UN speech by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who delivered a one-year ultimatum to Israel to withdraw to pre-1967 borders.

Netanyahu’s Likud party quickly issued a statement criticizing Bennett’s speech and extolling his predecessor. “Netanyahu's speeches at the UN made waves all around the world and brought Israel's political interests to the forefront of international attention,” read the statement. “Unlike him, Bennett gave an empty speech in front of an empty hall and wasted empty words, instead of taking advantage of an important international platform.” 

The Palestinian ambassador to the UN, Riyad Mansour, told Palestinian radio station Ashams that Bennett had ignored not just the Palestinians, but also the international community, in his speech. "We will act on all fronts, especially the Security Council and the International Criminal Court and all the countries of the world, but the anchor will be the Palestinian people's unity and its hold on its land," he said. "The world remembers well what happened in May in the lands of Palestine," including within Israel's pre-1967 borders, Mansour added, referring to Jewish-Arab violence and rioting earlier this year during a military confrontation between Israel and Hamas.