Is west ready to bargain with new Iranian president?

For years, Iranian moderates, such as former President Hassan Rouhani, tried but failed to reach an understanding with the West. Now, a hardliner is in charge. Does President Ebrahim Raisi’s election spell the end of what Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei once called Iran’s ‘heroic flexibility’ in dealing with the West? In the wake of the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, the question now matters even more.

The answer is yes as well as no. Raisi is not going to take up the mantle of attempting to reconcile with the West. The ideological confrontation with the United States is central to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s fundamentalist identity.

Moreover, both moderates and radicals in Iran still view the strategy of building a proxy-supported Iranian ‘empire’ across the Middle East—advanced by the late military commander Qassem Suleimani, who was assassinated by the US last year—as vital to uphold and advance the Islamic Revolution’s purpose. No true rapprochement is possible between the West and Iran, especially now that hardliners are fully running the show.

It’s also worth noting that ‘heroic flexibility’ never applied to Iran’s dealings with Israel—another fundamental bugbear. Raisi’s administration will certainly maintain Iran’s shadow war with the ‘Zionist entity’.

Iran’s recent attack on an Israeli-managed cargo ship near Oman in the Arabian Sea has been viewed by some as a kind of strategic shift—or, at least, escalation—as it represented a blatant violation of freedom of navigation in international waters. But, in truth, it is merely a continuation of a war in which both Iran and Israel have never shown much regard for international norms.

Israel assumed that, by not using its own merchant fleet—99% of its foreign trade is handled by international ships, it could avoid such assaults. But just as Iran’s forces in Syria are vulnerable to Israeli attacks, Israeli-linked entities in the Arabian Sea, a theatre thousands of miles from the country’s coast, but close to Iran’s mainland are vulnerable to Iranian attacks.

Iran will not forgo the opportunities this represents, not only to impose direct costs on Israel, but also to undermine the Abraham Accords, which, by establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and four Arab states, are viewed by Iran as a strategic setback. Already, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are reaching out to Iran, out of concern that US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy in the region won’t protect their interests.

But none of this means that Iran is gearing up for a direct confrontation with the West. Raisi has inherited an economy on life support. The Covid-19 pandemic and Western sanctions have cost Iran about 1.5 million jobs. Moreover, oil and gas export revenues have plummeted; annual inflation has reached almost 50%, with the cost of basic foods soaring by nearly 60%.

Clearly, Khamenei’s 2011 vision of a self-reliant Iranian ‘resistance economy’ hasn’t been realized. Furthermore, now that Raisi is President, Iran’s hardliners can no longer blame pro-Western moderates for Iran’s economic woes. To stave off potential unrest, Iran’s government must stem the economy’s decline by persuading the international community to ease sanctions, which will require it to reach some sort of understanding with the US over its nuclear program.

Russia and China are Iran’s more natural allies, but neither country will give Iran the resources it needs to sustain its costly proxy wars or reverse its economic decline. China, in particular, views Iran as a pawn in its broader chess match with the US, one that it would willingly sacrifice for, say, an agreement on vital trade issues.

An Iranian empire in the Middle East is simply not a strategic priority for China. At the same time, Iranian fundamentalists can’t be too happy with their Chinese ally’s brutal crackdown on its Muslim Uyghur population. The bilateral relationship thus does not represent a way out of Iran’s current predicament.

A new nuclear agreement is an existential imperative for Iran. And, as much as he dislikes the idea of striking a deal with the US, Khamenei understands this. Remaining on the threshold of nuclear breakout, a position it attained following America’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018, without actually crossing it may be Iran’s current bargaining position. This is what Raisi might have meant when, prior to his election, he upheld Iran’s need to return to the JCPOA in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

But the real bone of contention lies not in whether the parties are willing to go back to the old JCPOA, but the terms on which Iran would accept the US demand for a new, long-term deal once the JCPOA expires. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has unrealistically called for a ‘longer and stronger’ accord, one that stops Iran from amassing nuclear material for generations, halts its missile tests and ends its support of terrorist groups.

What is clear is that Washington should do all it can to encourage Iran’s ‘heroic flexibility’. After America’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the last thing the US needs is even more chaos in the Middle East. Likewise, the victory in Afghanistan of the Sunni Taliban, staunch ideological enemies of Shia Iran, should strengthen Iran’s commitment to avoid stoking conflict with the West. Now might be as good an opportunity as the US is going to get to reach a lasting nuclear agreement with Iran.

Bennett exposes his anti peace policy

Palestinians on Wednesday strongly denounced Naftali Bennett for his statements on the eve of his visit to the US and said they do not expect anything to come out of the first meeting between an Israeli Prime Minister and President Joe Biden.

Bennett’s statements show that there is no real difference between him and his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Palestinian officials, who accused the prime minister of “sabotaging” efforts to revive the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Bennett, in an interview with The New York Times, said there would not be resolution of the conflict with the Palestinians for the foreseeable future. He said that his government will neither annex any part of the West Bank nor establish a Palestinian state.

Peace talks will not happen, partly because the Palestinian leadership is fractured and rudderless, he said.

“This government is a government that will make dramatic breakthroughs in the economy. Its claim to fame will not be solving the 130-year-old conflict here in Israel,” he said.

Bennett said the government will continue the standard policy of “natural growth” in the settlements, adding that “Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. It’s not the capital of other nations.”

In response, the Palestinian Authority Foreign Ministry said that Bennett has “clearly and frankly exposed his anti-peace positions” on the eve of his meeting with Biden.

The ministry pointed out that Bennett affirmed ahead of his visit to Washington his opposition to a Palestinian state and his support for settlement “expansion,” as well as his refusal to hold peace talks with the Palestinians.

 “These statements constitute redlines and preconditions ahead of Bennett’s meeting with Biden,” the ministry said in a statement. “This is an attempt to stave off pressure or advice from the Biden administration regarding Israeli-Palestinian relations, settlements, or any American effort to pave the way for the resumption of the peace process.”

The PA ministry accused Bennett of “disregarding” the Biden administration and international resolutions pertaining to the Israeli-Arab conflict.

It also accused him of “sabotaging” Arab and American efforts to “create a positive atmosphere for relaunching meaningful negotiations” between Israel and the Palestinians.

“It’s clear that Bennett is trying to create confusion in order to influence the priorities of US foreign policy with the purpose of marginalizing the Palestinian issue,” the ministry charged.

It claimed that the prime minister was trying to hide his “extremist right-wing” positions by offering the Palestinians a number of gestures as part of confidence-building measures between the two sides. The gestures he is talking about are already part of Israel’s obligations as an “occupying power,” the ministry argued.

“Bennett departed to the US, leaving behind occupation bulldozers that are devouring Palestinian lands for building and expanding settlements,” it said.

AZZAM AL-AHMAD, a senior official with the ruling Fatah faction headed by PA President Mahmoud Abbas, said the Palestinians were not pinning any hopes on the Bennett-Biden talks. The visit will not produce anything meaningful for the peace process, Al-Ahmad said.

He called on the Arab countries and European Union members to pressure the Biden administration to clarify its policies toward the Middle East, specifically the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Another senior Palestinian official in Ramallah said the Palestinians were ready to return to the negotiating table with Israel, “but only under the umbrella of the United Nations and the international community.”

The Palestinians, however, do not believe that the Bennett government is interested in resuming peace talks with the Palestinians, “because it includes far-right parties and politicians who are strongly opposed to the two-state solution,” the official said.

“Bennett’s remarks on the eve of his visit to the US are a clear indication that the Biden administration is wasting its time by talking about the revival of the peace process and its support for the two-state solution.”

Commenting on Bennett’s statements, Hussein al-Sheikh, head of the PA’s General Authority of Civil Affairs, said that “Jerusalem is the capital of the State of Palestine, regardless of whoever admits it. Occupation and apartheid will not remain. The establishment of the Palestinian state does not require the permission of the occupation.”

Fatah Central Committee secretary-general Jibril Rajoub said the Palestinians were not surprised by Bennett’s statements, which came as a “blow” to the US administration and the international community.

“Those who should be surprised are the Biden administration and the international community, because these statements are a clear challenge to international resolutions,” Rajoub told the PA’s Voice of Palestine radio station.

Dimitri Diliani, spokesman for the Democratic Reform Current headed by ousted Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan, said that as far as the Palestinians are concerned, Bennett’s visit to Washington bears “no political significance,” because of the “weakness of the official Palestinian diplomatic apparatus.”

Diliani accused the PA of failing to keep the Palestinian issue at the top of the US administration’s list of priorities.

He said that Bennett’s remarks on the eve of his arrival in Washington exposed his “extremist right-wing agenda that is hostile to peace and stability.”

Diliani also said he does not expect the Bennett-Biden summit to produce anything good for the Palestinians, especially regarding the peace process with Israel.

Ill-timed visit of Bennett to United States

I may not be an admirer of Israeli Prime Minister, Natfali Bennett, but certainly dismayed at the bad timing of his visit to the United States. He has gone there with ambitious plan, but may not succeed in getting even sympathetic hearing.

His visit must have been scheduled, when no one had thought Taliban would be taking control of the entire Afghanistan. Now, the US president and his team are up to neck in Afghan due to very tight evacuation schedule and likely fallout, in case they fail in meeting 31st August 2021 deadline.

Despite hating it, the US is too eager in avoiding any bloody encounters at this juncture, resulting in accepting some of the conditions of Taliban. It is on record that Afghanistan has resumed buying petroleum products from Iran, despite the US sanctions in place.

Similarly, Iran-backed Hezbollah of Lebanon has announced to buy petroleum products from Iran. It has also warned all the foes not to make any attempt to stop movement of ships carrying Iranian products. Israel has expressed its dismay on the decision and it was feared that some mysterious actions may be taken to disrupt supply.

Naftali Bennett landed early Wednesday in the United States, kicking off his first state visit overseas since taking office.The trip comes in the midst of heightened tensions with Jerusalem’s regional enemy Iran, and as Israel grapples with a gradual resurgence of hostilities on its southern border with the Gaza Strip.

Bennett, who landed at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, was scheduled to meet Wednesday with senior US administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and on Thursday with President Biden.

In a statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office before his departure, Bennett said the top priority in his conversation with Biden would be Iran, “especially the leapfrogging in the past two to three years in the Iranian nuclear program.”

He said other issues would also be discussed, including preserving Israel’s qualitative military edge in the Middle East, confronting the coronavirus pandemic and economic matters.

Bennett has spoken out against the possibility of a new nuclear accord between Iran and world powers, and says that any agreement must also put the brakes on Iran’s regional aggression.

Earlier this week, Bennett told the cabinet that he would tell the American president “that now is the time to halt the Iranians, to stop this thing,” and not to reenter “a nuclear deal that has already expired and is not relevant, even to those who thought it was once relevant.”

Bennett repeated that stance Tuesday in a Zoom call with US congressmen.

 “There’s a new government in the US and a new government in Israel, and I bring with me from Jerusalem a new spirit of cooperation, and this rests on the special and long relationship between the two countries,” Bennett said before takeoff.

Bennett took office two months ago after cobbling together a ruling coalition of eight disparate political parties — ranging from right-wing parties to the Islamist Ra’am faction — that ousted longtime leader Benjamin Netanyahu from office following the country’s fourth consecutive parliamentary election in two years.

Ahead of his US trip, Bennett told The New York Times in an interview published Tuesday that he would neither annex West Bank territory nor allow it to become a Palestinian state, since the left-to-right composition of his coalition government meant that drastic diplomatic moves in either direction were off the table for now.

Building resilience for Asia and Pacific countries

Countries meeting on Wednesday in Bangkok at the seventh session of the ESCAP Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction were called on to intensify their efforts to prepare for and tackle complex, overlapping crises as the region strives to increase the resilience of its people as well as its economies.

“Notwithstanding the progress made by many countries in devising more robust systems of early warning and responsive protection - with far fewer people dying as a result of natural disasters - the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that  almost without exception, countries around the world are still ill-prepared to deal with multiple overlapping crises, which often cascade, with one triggering another,” said Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of ESCAP. “Tropical cyclones, for example, can lead to floods, which lead to disease, which exacerbates poverty.”

Since the start of the pandemic, the region has been hit by multiple natural and biological disasters. At the same time, climate change has continued to warm the world, exacerbating the impacts of many of these disasters. The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2021, also launched today, shows that the pandemic, combined with the persistent reality of climate change, has reshaped and expanded the disaster “riskscape” in Asia and the Pacific.

The triple threat of disease, disaster and climate change is causing not only considerable human hardship but also significant economic losses. Currently, the annual average disaster-related losses are US$780 billion. This could nearly double, to around US$1.4 trillion, in a worst-case climate scenario. Choosing a proactive strategy of adapting to natural and other biological hazards would be far more cost-effective at an annual cost of US$270 billion.

In her statement during the opening session, the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, Mami Mizutori, voiced support for the Committee’s work and reiterated the need for immediate and decisive action to build disaster resilience.

“The string of record-breaking weather events show that we do not have the luxury of ‘waiting this out’ action must be taken now to address these risks,” she said. “This includes increasing international funding for disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation, especially for countries graduating from the least-developed category.”

Also speaking at the opening session, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, Petteri Taalas, emphasized the importance of climate change mitigation efforts.

“All in all, successful climate mitigation doesn’t affect our everyday life very much,” he said, “but if we fail with climate mitigation the impact is going to be felt for centuries, even millennia.”

The final speaker at the opening session, the Secretary-General of the International Telecommunication Union, Houlin Zhao, highlighted the need for countries in Asia and the Pacific to make progress on digital transformation.

“It’s time for the Asia-Pacific region to rely even more on ICTs (information and communication technologies),” he said. “I am confident that countries in the region will access the unique opportunity presented by Covid-19 to accelerate digital transformation and leverage the historic role of ICTs in tackling the dual challenges of climate-related disasters and Covid-19.”

Today also saw the return of the ESCAP Regional Conversation series, with a Ministerial Panel on Disaster, Climate and Health Resilience. This was the first in a series of four events that will bring together eminent personalities and thought leaders to exchange ideas and solutions to some of the key challenges facing Asia and the Pacific.

In her remarks, Ms. Alisjahbana highlighted the need to build universal resilience to address the vulnerabilities the pandemic has exposed and to tackle rising levels of inequality and poverty. She called for a paradigm shift in disaster risk management toward a focus on investing in prevention and the building of resilience.

Israeli weapons used against Taliban in Afghanistan

From drones to missiles and armored vehicles, Israeli-made weapons systems helped coalition forces against Taliban fighters. Though Israeli troops have never been on the ground in the war-torn central Asian country, numerous coalition nations used Israeli systems during the 20 years of fighting against the radical jihadist terrorist group.

While many Israeli defense companies have stayed mum on the use of their products in Afghanistan, according to multiple reports, countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and Australia have used their products for years.

Numerous countries used remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) to collect intelligence, and Israeli-made SPIKE missiles were used in battle. Troops were also able to drive around safely in high-intensity areas in Israeli-made MRAP (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected) military light tactical vehicles.

One of the main Israeli weapons systems used by foreign militaries in Afghanistan was drones.

Foreign reports state that Israel is considered a leading exporter of drones and has sold such systems to numerous countries including Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Mexico, Singapore and South Korea.

The German Air Force began operating the Heron TP, manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), in Afghanistan in 2010. They were involved in thousands of missions, logging thousands of flight hours.

The Heron TPs are IAI’s most advanced RPAs with 40-hour endurance, a maximum take-off weight of 11,685 pounds, and a payload of 2,204 pounds. They can be used for reconnaissance, combat and support roles, and can carry air-to-ground missiles to take out hostile targets.

The German pilots were trained in Israel regarding how to operate the RPA and learn about its surveillance capabilities.

The Canadian military and the Australians also flew IAI’s Heron 1 RPA in Afghanistan.

Equipped with satellite data link and electro-optical infrared sensors, the Heron 1 is not only able to provide reconnaissance to ground forces in combat situations, assist in convoying and patrolling, create movement profiles, and carry out long-term monitoring, but it is also able to track down explosives from the air.

Several of them crashed in Afghanistan.

But it wasn’t only the Heron that was flying in Afghanistan’s skies.

Since 2005, the Australian Army in Afghanistan has also flown the Skylark 1 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) manufactured by Elbit Systems.

The Skylark, measuring seven and a half feet, is used by troops for tactical surveillance and close-range counter-terror missions. It can be launched by one or two soldiers, and is operated on the roof of buildings or in the back of armored personnel carriers, providing live video to operators once airborne.

With a range of 10-15 km, the mini-UAV has an exceptionally quiet electric motor and outstanding observation capabilities giving troops beyond-line-of-sight intelligence, enhancing their performance in various mission scenarios.

Australia also flew the Skylark during missions in Iraq.

In addition to RPAs, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems’ Spike NLOS (Non Line Of Sight) missile was used by both the British and Canadians in Afghanistan.

The missile’s precision proved useful in battles against the Taliban. Although the Brits tried to keep its use quiet, they publicly admitted to using the missile, known as Exactor, in 2014.

The Spike NLOS is capable of penetrating 39 inches of armor, and can be operated in either direct attack or mid-course navigation based on target coordinates only. These modes enable the defeat of long-range hidden targets with pinpoint precision, damage assessment, and the obtaining of real-time intelligence.

It has a range of 25 km and can be used with a number of warheads such as heat, fragmentation, PBF (penetration, blast and fragmentation) and PBF/F suited for urban and high-intensity conflicts. The missile, which can be installed on a variety of platforms, provides the gunner with the ability to attack targets at stand-off range and get real-time intelligence and damage assessment following the strikes.

Though Israel does not comment on foreign reports, Iranian media reported in 2019 that troops were sent to Afghanistan to collect intelligence on Iranian military movement.

According to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, Israeli troops operated out of a United States Air Force base in Shindand in the western Afghanistan province of Herat some 75 km from the Iranian border and were collecting intelligence on Iranian movement around the Persian Gulf region.

Russia’s Sputnik News stated at the time that the Israelis were operating “under the flags of the United States and the United Arab Emirates.”

Sputnik quoted an expert on Israel as saying that the Israeli troops were operating under the framework of American forces stationed there, and that the activity was carried out with the knowledge and approval of the Afghan government.

As Western forces leave Afghanistan and the Taliban solidifies its power over the country, the jihadist group has also obtained advanced American weaponry, including some drones.

But with the Canadians, Brits and Germans having ended their fight several years ago, it’s unlikely that the Taliban got their hands on the Israeli-made systems that hunted them for so long.

Iran resumes fuel exports to Afghanistan at Taliban request

Iran restarted its petrol and diesel exports to Afghanistan a few days ago, following a request from Taliban, the Union of Iranian Oil, Gas and Gas Exporters announced on Monday.

The Sunni Muslim group seized power in Afghanistan last week as the United States and its allies withdrew their troops after a 20-year war.

Gasoline prices in Afghanistan hit US$900/ton last week as many panicked Afghans left towns fearing retaliation and a return to a harsh version of Islamic law imposed by Taliban when they were in power two decades ago.

To counter the surge in prices, the new Taliban government has asked Shia Iran to keep the borders open to traders.

“The Taliban have sent messages to Iran saying ‘you can continue to export petroleum products’,” Hamid Hosseini, member of the board of directors and spokesperson for the Iranian union in Tehran, told Reuters, adding that some Iranian traders had been cautious due to security concerns.

Iranian exports started a few days ago, after the Taliban cut tariffs on fuel imports from Iran by up to 70%, Hosseini added, showing an official document from the Afghan customs organization.

The main Iranian exports to Afghanistan are gasoline and diesel. Iran exported around 400,000 tons of fuel to its neighbor from May 2020 to May 2021, according to a report released by PetroView, an Iranian oil and gas research and advisory platform.

Hezbollah to arrange Iranian fuel for Lebanon in defiance of US sanctions

An Iranian fuel shipment arranged by Hezbollah for Lebanon is likely to sail on Thursday. The Group has cautioned its US and Israeli foes against any moves to halt the consignment aimed at easing an acute fuel crisis in Lebanon.

Hezbollah's opponents in Lebanon warned the move could have dire consequences. Saad al-Hariri, a former prime minister, said it risked sanctions being imposed on a country whose economy has been in meltdown for nearly two years.

Israeli military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Amnon Shefler declined to comment on whether Israel would take any military action to stop the shipment, but called it part of an Iranian scheme to export its revolution and promote its proxies.

The arrival of the Iranian fuel oil would mark a new phase in the financial crisis which the Lebanese state and its ruling factions, including Hezbollah, have failed to tackle even as fuel has run dry and shortages have triggered deadly violence.

There was no comment from the Lebanese government on the announcement made by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

The US ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, told Al Arabiya English that Lebanon didn't need Iranian tankers, citing "a whole bunch" of fuel ships off the coast waiting to unload.

The United States was in talks with Egypt and Jordan to help find solutions to Lebanon's fuel and energy needs, she said, speaking hours after Hezbollah's announcement.

Marking the biggest threat to Lebanon's stability since the 1975-90 civil war, the financial crisis has hit a crunch point, with hospitals and other essential services being forced to shut or scale back due to power cuts and the acute scarcity of fuel.

Fuel shortages have worsened since the central bank said last week it would no longer finance the imports at heavily subsidized exchange rates. The government has yet to raise official prices, however, leaving shipments in limbo.

Nasrallah said further Iranian shipments would follow to help the people of Lebanon.

"I say to the Americans and the Israelis that the boat that will sail within hours from Iran is Lebanese territory," Nasrallah said, suggesting that any action to stop it would be met with a response.

"We don't want to get... into a problem with anyone. We want to help our people," he said in a televised address.

Iran's semi-official Nournews said the fuel was all purchased by a group of Lebanese Shi'ite businessmen.

"The shipments are considered their property from the moment of loading," said the news website, which is close to Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

In June, Nasrallah said Iran was prepared to accept payment in the Lebanese currency, which has lost more than 90% of its value in two years.

US sanctions on Iran, reimposed in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran, aimed to cut its oil sales to zero.

Hezbollah, founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982, is also targeted by US sanctions.

Nasrallah did not say when or where the shipment would dock. One possibility is in neighboring Syria, where Reuters reported in April the group was readying fuel storage capacity as part of plans to respond to the crisis.

Hariri criticized Nasrallah for declaring the ships Lebanese territory, rejected what he described as Lebanon being treated as an Iranian province, and said the country could suffer the fate of Venezuela, which is under heavy sanctions.

Samir Geagea, a Christian politician and Hezbollah opponent, said that having usurped government authorities in security and military affairs, the group was now taking over economic decision-making to the detriment of the Lebanese.