British-Russian Naval Confrontation

A Minister said that Britain was prepared to sail naval vessels through disputed waters near Crimea again, a day after a confrontation between a British warship and Russian forces in the Black Sea.

Environment Secretary George Eustice disputed claims from Moscow that Russian warplanes dropped bombs and a patrol boat fired warning shots at a British destroyer it claims entered into its territorial waters in the Black Sea.

"This is a very normal thing," Eustice told Sky News. "It's quite common, actually, what was actually going on is the Russians were doing a gunnery exercise and given prior notice of that, they often do in that area. So I think it's important that we don't get carried away."

Russia said HMS Defender went three kilometers inside its territory off Cape Fiolent in Crimea, just before noon on Wednesday. A nation's territorial waters extend 12 nautical miles from its coastline; any foreign warship going past that limit would need permission of the country to do so, with a few exceptions.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine after a military intervention in the region in 2014. The international community opposed that annexation, and still considers Crimea as Ukrainian territory.

Eustice insisted the vessel was making a legal passage under international law to Georgia via Ukraine. Asked if the UK would sail through disputed Ukrainian waters again, he replied: "Yes ... because we never accepted the annexation of Crimea."

On Thursday, Kremlin officials accused the UK of a "deliberate, planned provocation" and said it had the right to "bomb on target" when foreign ships violate its sea borders.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on a conference call with journalists that Russia is "obviously concerned about such actions of the British ship."

"What can we do? We can appeal to common sense, demand respect for international law. If this does not help, we can bomb not only in the direction, but also on target, if our colleagues do not understand," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said, according to Russian state media TASS.

On Thursday, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab described Moscow's version of Wednesday's incident as "predictably inaccurate," saying "no shots were fired at HMS Defender."

A BBC reporter on the ship said he witnessed Russian warplanes and naval vessels buzzing the destroyer during the flare-up on Wednesday.

Shortly after the British ship crossed the territorial boundary, an Su-24M attack jet dropped bombs and a coastal patrol ship fired warning shots in front of the British destroyer, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a report.

The UK Defense Ministry had previously denied Moscow's accusation, saying that its ship was making a legal and innocent passage.

The UK ambassador to Moscow was due to visit the Russian Foreign Ministry Thursday after being summoned over the incident, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on state TV. On Wednesday, Zakharova accused the UK of spreading lies about the incident.

"So, who's lying: the British Defense Ministry, the British BBC reporter or the British Embassy in Moscow? There is an answer. This time -- the British Defense Ministry and the British Embassy ... London has lost its manners. I advise the British partners to knock if they want to 'peacefully enter' next time," Zakharova wrote on Telegram.

Biden-Ghani meeting

Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani wrapped up two days of meetings with lawmakers and administration officials on Friday, capped with a visit to the White House to meet with President Joe Biden.

At the meeting, Biden pledged the United States would remain committed to Afghanistan with political and economic support even as the US military withdraws from the country.

“The senseless violence has to stop, but it’s going to be very difficult,” Biden said.

“But we’re going to stick with you, and we’re going to do our best to see to it you have the tools you need.”

Earlier in the day, Ghani held a meeting with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon.

At that meeting, Ghani brushed off concerns that his government could fall as soon as six months after US troops depart.

“There have been many such predictions and they have all proven, turned out, false,” Ghani said when reporters asked about the US intelligence assessment.

Ghani also refuted the idea that the United States is walking around from his country is “The false narrative of abandonment is just false,” Ghani said.

At the White House, he also compared his country to pre-Civil War America, saying Afghanistan is in an “1861 moment, like President Lincoln, rallying to the defense of the republic, determined that the republic is defended.

“It's a choice of values, the values of an exclusionary system or an inclusionary system,” Ghani continued.

“We are determined to have unity, coherence, national sense of sacrifice and will not spare anything," Ghani insisted

 

USS Ronald Reagan to Cover Withdrawal of Troops From Afghanistan

United States Navy’s Japan-based carrier strike group is now operating in the North Arabian Sea to support withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. 

USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), guided-missile cruiser USS Shiloh (CG-67) and guided-missile destroyer USS Halsey (DDG-97) crossed into US 5th Fleet from 7th Fleet on Friday.

While in the US 5th Fleet area of operations, the Ronald Reagan CSG will operate and train alongside regional and coalition partners and provide airpower to protect US and coalition forces as they conduct drawdown operations from Afghanistan.

Reagan will take the place of USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) and its escorts that have been operating in the Middle East since April this year to provide air cover for the withdrawal. Ike is expected to soon begin its journey to its Norfolk, Va., homeport following its second deployment within a year.

Reagan had just completed high-end drills on Thursday with the Indian Navy ahead of entering 5th Fleet.

The Reagan move is the first time the US Japan-based carrier has been routed to the Middle East since the former USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63) supported the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Reagan’s move to the Middle East has raised new questions at how present the Navy will need to be in the region versus the stated goal of the Biden administration to focus resources on the Pacific and competition with China.

Aside from brief gaps, a US carrier has been on station on a small patch of ocean in the North Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman continuously since May 2019 at the request of US Central Command Commander Gen. Kenneth McKenzie.

For the Navy, a major outcome of the ongoing Pentagon-led global force posture review will be how carrier strike groups are apportioned across the global combatant commands.

Oman urges Israel to create Palestinian State

Omani Foreign Minister told his Israeli counterpart he hopes Israel's new government will take concrete steps towards creating an independent Palestinian state, with east Jerusalem as its capital, reported Omani state media said on Thursday.

Oman's Badr al-Busaidi spoke by phone to Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, according to ONA, the state news agency of Oman, which has a longstanding policy of neutrality in the turbulent region and often acts as a mediator.

In February this year, Busaidi said Oman was satisfied with its current relationship with Israel, even after fellow Gulf States the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalized ties with Israel last year under US-brokered accords.

Lapid will travel to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) next week in the first official visit by an Israeli minister to the Gulf state since they established diplomatic relations. He will inaugurate the Israeli Embassy in Abu Dhabi and the Consulate General of Israel in Dubai.

Israel and Oman enjoy bilateral relations. In line with the Arab League position in relation to Israel, Oman does not officially recognize the state of Israel and took part in the boycott of Israel during much of the 20th century.

It may be recalled that in 1994, the two countries established unofficial trade relations, which were discontinued in 2000. In 1994, then-Prime Minister of Israel Yitzhak Rabin visited Oman, where he was greeted by Sultan of Oman; Qaboos bin Said al Said in Muscat.

Among other things, the two sides discussed issues such as sharing water and how to improve water supplies.

In 1995, a few days after Rabin was assassinated, then-acting Prime Minister Shimon Peres hosted Omani foreign minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah in Jerusalem.

In January 1996, Israel and Oman signed an agreement on the reciprocal opening of trade representative offices.

In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led a delegation to Oman and met with Sultan Qaboos and other senior Omani officials.

In February 2019, Omani foreign minister, Yusuf bin Alawi, said that Oman will not normalize its relations with Israel until a sovereign Palestinian state has been established.

Settlement reached over ship stuck in Suez Canal

Reportedly, the owner and insurers of the mega container ship that blocked the Suez Canal for six days in March 2021 and disrupted global shipping have reached a settlement with the Egyptian authorities.

The insurer's statement did not specify the amount, but said that once the settlement is formalized, the ship ‑ Ever Given ‑ after nearly three months of haggling, finger-pointing and court hearings - would finally complete its journey through the canal.

"Following extensive discussions with the Suez Canal Authority's negotiating committee over the past few weeks, an agreement in principle between the parties has been reached," said a statement from the insurer UK P & I Club. "Together with the owner and the ship's other insurers, we are now working with the SCA to finalize a signed settlement agreement as soon as possible."

Since the ship was freed in a huge salvage effort, about six days after running aground across the Suez, the canal authority had been locked in an often acrimonious stand-off with the ship's owner and operators over what the authority said it was owed for the incident.

The authority had sought up to US$ one billion in compensation, a figure that included the cost of tugboats, dredgers and crews hired to salvage the ship as well as the loss of revenue while the canal was blocked.

Under the standard terms that shipping companies are required to accept before traversing the Suez Canal, ships are liable for all costs or losses they cause in the canal.

Still, the authority never provided a detailed breakdown of how it had arrived at such a large amount.

The sum does not cover the disruption to worldwide shipping, including delayed cargo and costs to other shipping lines, which experts have said could ultimately soar into the hundreds of millions.

Physically, at least, the Ever Given was long ago declared fit to move on. But until compensation is paid, the ship and its crew will remain impounded in the Great Bitter Lake, a natural body of water that connects the section of the canal where the ship was stuck to the next segment, according to SCA Chairman, Osama Rabie.

An Egyptian court had ordered the ship held until the financial claims were settled, a move that drew protests from the Ever Given's Japanese owner, Shoei Kisen Kaisha.

For more than three months, they faced off in an Egyptian commercial court and in the local press.

The Egyptians insisted that the captain - who, under SCA rules, bore ultimate responsibility for commanding the ship despite the presence of Suez pilots who directed steering and speed - was to blame.

Whatever were the Ever Given's objections, the canal having a reputation for demanding large liability sums from ship-owners, enjoyed a strong hand in the negotiations.

The months of negotiations left the ship's crew of 25 Indian seafarers stuck in the middle, unable to leave the Ever Given until the bargaining ends, but for a few cases in which the Egyptian authorities granted crew members' requests to leave after their contracts ended or for family reasons.

India-US begin joint drills in Indian Ocean

According to Hindustan Times, Indian Air Force and Navy on Wednesday kicked off two-day drills with the US Navy in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) amid China’s attempts to expand its presence in the strategic region. The exercise will also involve the US Navy’s Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group (CSG).

The IAF takes part in the exercise with its Jaguar fighters, Sukhoi-30 MKIs, Phalcon AWACS (airborne warning and control system) aircraft, Netra AEW&C (airborne early warning and control) aircraft, and Il-78 mid-air refuellers. The US Navy’s air assets will include F-18 jets and E-2C Hawkeye AEW&C aircraft, the officials said.

Indian warships INS Kochi and Teg along with P-8I submarine hunter planes and MiG-29K aircraft are also taking part in the exercise.

The exercise comes a week after Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh called for an open and inclusive order in the Indo-Pacific region, including the South China Sea, with respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries. Singh reiterated New Delhi’s support to freedom of navigation, over-flight and unimpeded commerce for all in international waters in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

IAF spokesperson Wing Commander Ashish Moghe said the IAF has extensive experience in maritime operations in the IOR. “This has been consolidated over the years by the conduct of exercises from the country’s island territories…This engagement with the US CSG offers one more opportunity to undertake joint operations in the maritime domain with a friendly foreign power.”

He said the exercise will focus on multiple areas including enhancing aspects of interoperability, nuances of international integrated maritime search and rescue operations, and exchange of best practices in the maritime airpower domain.

The navy said in a statement that the Indian warships along with aircraft from the Indian Navy and IAF will be engaged in joint multi-domain operations with the CSG comprising Nimitz-class aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Halsey and Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Shiloh. “High tempo operations during the exercise will include advanced air defence exercises, cross-deck helicopter operations, and anti-submarine exercises. The participating forces will endeavour to hone their war-fighting skills and enhance their interoperability as an integrated force to promote peace, security, and stability in the maritime domain.”

The Indian Navy is carrying out round-the-clock surveillance in the IOR, which, it believes, China will inevitably try to enter in its quest to become a global power, just as it has laid claim to large portions of the disputed South China Sea.

Prospects of US joining JCPOA getting bleaker

According to an AP report, Biden administration officials are insisting that the election of a hard-liner as Iran’s president won’t affect reviving the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. But, there are signs that prospects of concluding a deal are getting bleaker.

Optimism that a deal was imminent faded as the talks ended on Sunday without tangible indications of significant progress. On Monday, in his first public comments since the vote, incoming Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi rejected a key Biden goal of expanding on the nuclear deal if negotiators are able to salvage the old one.

Raisi is likely to raise the Iran’s demands for sanctions relief in return for Iranian compliance with the deal, as he himself is already subject to US human rights penalties.

“I don’t envy the Biden team,” said Karim Sadjapour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who has advised multiple US administrations on Iran. “I think the administration now has a heightened sense of urgency to revise the deal before Raisi and a new hard-line team is inaugurated.”

President Joe Biden and his team have made the US return to the deal one of their top foreign policy priorities. The deal was one of President Barack Obama’s signature achievements; one that aides now serving in the Biden administration had helped negotiate and that Donald Trump repudiated and tried to dismantle as president.

Despite Raisi’s impending presidency, Biden administration officials insist prospects for reaching an agreement are unaltered. They argue that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who signed off the 2015 deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will make the final decision, regardless of who is president.

“The president’s view and our view is that the decision leader is the supreme leader,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday. “That was the case before the election; it’s the case today; it will be the case probably moving forward.”

“Iran will have, we expect, the same supreme leader in August as it will have today, as it had before the elections, as it had in 2015 when the JCPOA was consummated for the first time,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said.

But hopes for substantial progress fizzled last week ahead of the Iranian election amid a flurry of speculation about the impact of the vote on the indirect talks between Iran and the US in Vienna. Diplomats and others familiar with the talks had thought the last round, the sixth, could produce at least a tangible result even if it fell short of a full deal.

Now, that round has ended and a seventh round has yet to be scheduled as Raisi, Iran’s conservative judiciary chief, brandished an absolute rejection of anything more than Iran’s bare minimum compliance with the 2015 agreement in exchange for a lifting all of US sanctions.

In his public comments Monday, Raisi brushed aside US calls for Iran to agree to follow-on discussions on expanding the initial nuclear deal to include its ballistic missile program and its support for regional groups that the US designates terrorist organizations.

“It’s nonnegotiable,” Raisi said’

Iran experts agree it will be a tough, if not impossible, for Biden to get Iran to go beyond the nuclear agreement.

“I’m very skeptical that once we’ve lifted the sanctions to get them to return they’ll feel any incentive to come back and negotiate more concessions,” Sadjapour said. “And, if we coerce them with sanctions to come back to the table, they’ll argue that we’ve abrogated our end of the nuclear deal again.”

Critics of the nuclear deal maintain that the administration has already given away too much in exchange for too little by signaling its desire to repudiate Trump’s repudiation of the nuclear deal. And, they say that even if Iran agrees to some sort of additional talks, the pledge will be meaningless.

“It was pretty obvious that the Iranians were never going to negotiate in good faith beyond the JCPOA,” said Rich Goldberg, a Trump administration National Security Council official who has espoused a hard line on Iran.

“But now, even if the administration gets some sort of face-saving language from the Iranians about future talks, Raisi has already said they’re not interested. The jig is up,” he said. “You can’t come back to a skeptical Congress, allies and deal opponents and say the promise means anything it means when Raisi has already said it doesn’t.”

But administration officials are adamant that as good as the nuclear deal is, it is insufficient and must be improved on.

“We do see a return to compliance as necessary but insufficient, but we also do see a return to compliance as enabling us to take on those other issues diplomatically,” Price said, adding that the point had been made clear to the Iranians “in no uncertain terms.”

An additional complication is that Raisi will become the first serving Iranian president sanctioned by the US government even before entering office, in part over his time as the head of Iran’s internationally criticized judiciary — a situation that could complicate state visits and speeches at international forums such as the United Nations.

Psaki and Price both said that the US will continue to hold Raisi accountable for human rights violations for which he was sanctioned by the Trump administration.

Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and set about a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that included re-instating all the sanctions eased under the agreement along with adding a host of new ones.