What could be likely impact of Gaza crisis on South Asia?

While some analysts may say South Asia is not a party to the Gaza conflict, the region is still vulnerable to its potentially destabilizing effects. It poses security risks within the region, including violent protests and terrorist attacks.

It is worth exploring what the crisis means for South Asia, which does not have common border with the Middle East. India and Nepal have long-standing links to Israel and Bhutan normalized ties in December 2020. As against this Pakistan fully support the Palestinian cause.

India has strengthened its ties with Israel significantly. Relations between the two countries have grown stronger under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He became the first sitting Indian prime minister to visit Israel. India has supported the Palestinian cause in the past. In 2018, Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit the Palestinian territories too.

India’s ambassador to the United Nations issued a bit confusing statement on the conflict. He condemned Palestinian violence and described Israel’s use of force as retaliatory, but in the same breath affirmed India’s strong support for the Palestinian cause and two-state solution.

As against this, Pakistan has put to rest all lingering speculation that it could be one of the next countries normalizing ties with Israel. Pakistan made it clear that it will only recognize Israel when a Palestinian state is established.

Some analysts say the current conflict also poses security risks for South Asia. It could spark pro-Palestinian protests that could lead to violence. They also fear that some non-state actors or miscreants hiding in Afghanistan may enter Kashmir and try to put the valley inferno.

Washington must actively manage Israel-Palestine conflict it can’t end

The administration of US President Joe Biden entered office expecting to take a less proactive approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than many of its predecessors. Four days into the recent war between Israel and Hamas this approach was evident. 

Biden responded to a question,“I have spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel had a right to defend itself, and that he hoped the fighting would be over sooner rather than later.”

The conflict requires management, because conditions simply do not exist for its resolution. Sadly, Biden administration has not yet put an ambassador in Israel (even an interim one) or a consul general in Jerusalem to deal with the Palestinians. Instead, management was left to one poorly staffed, midlevel official in the State Department. The Biden administration deserves credit for intervening at a higher level to get Netanyahu to stop the evictions, marches, and Israeli police violence in East Jerusalem.

Before the outbreak of this latest conflict, there was hope that a new government would be formed in Israel that would put an end to Netanyahu’s rule. Yair Lapid (the head of the Yesh Atid party) and Naftali Bennett (the head of the Yamina party) were about to cobble together a left-center-right coalition that would depend on the support of Arab parties to scrape together a majority vote of confidence.

Then a shocking spate of mob violence broke out between Jews and Arabs, spreading from Jerusalem to other Israeli cities. This severely complicated the task of building a government. Even if a unity government emerges, its first prime minister will be Naftali Bennett. Among Israel’s leaders, he is the most dedicated opponent of an independent Palestinian state and the most dedicated proponent of annexing the West Bank.

In the coming days, once the IDF has completed its destruction of Hamas’s infrastructure and eliminated as many of the leaders of its armed wing as it can find, Netanyahu will likely be willing, too. Usually cautious, he will not want to go into a fifth election with a war raging. Already, he is being blamed for the disruption to Israeli life. 

The world has seen Israel-Hamas wars before—the last one was in 2014. This time it is alleged that Hamas, with the assistance Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad, fired rockets indiscriminately. Israel retaliated disproportionately. The United States supports Israel's right to defend itself. Europe wags its finger at Israel. Hamas eventually decides it has made its point. Qatar and Egypt mediate a cease-fire based on the usual “quiet for quiet” deal. Both sides bury their dead, clear the rubble, and go back to business as usual while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas’s Ezzedeen al-Qassam Brigades prepare for the next round.

The Biden administration’s approach suggests that Washington will be comfortable with another ceasefire, as it has other priorities. These include pandemic, economic recovery, climate change, China’s rise and Iran’s nuclear ambitions, to mention a few. The president’s deference to Netanyahu’s timetable is indicative of this change in approach, in which the parties are left to deal with the conflict.

Every crisis creates an opportunity. Could the circumstances this time create an opportunity for Washington to step up its engagement? Could the United States progress toward its avowed goal of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

The answer, unfortunately, is no. The status quo actually suits both sides quite well and neither has an interest in changing it. Hamas was upset by the cancellation of Palestinian elections, in which it hoped to extend its influence to the West Bank. In exchange for that it took advantage of a confluence of Jewish-Arab confrontations in East Jerusalem to extend its influence there. It fired rockets toward Jerusalem. That in turn enraged Netanyahu, who was content to have Hamas rule in Gaza but not in the West Bank, and certainly not in East Jerusalem.

Hamas hopes to enhance its standing among Palestinians; Israel hopes to reestablish its deterrence against Hamas’s attacks on its citizens. Neither side is interested in having the United States broker a two-state solution. Hamas is dedicated to a one-state solution in which Israel does not exist; Netanyahu is committed to a three-state solution in which Hamas rules in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority presides over West Bank enclaves.

The third party to this conflict—Abu Mazen—would love to see the United States re-engage, because that would help make him relevant again. But American negotiators have had enough experience with Abu Mazen and believe that he is in no position to accept the compromises necessary to achieve a two-state solution. He fears, he will be denounced as a traitor by Hamas for any concession he makes to Israel, Abu Mazen intends to go into the history books as the leader who refused to compromise Palestinian rights.

Resolution to block arms sale to Israel won’t pass the Senate

An effort by Sen. Bernie Sanders to block a US$735 million arms sale to Israel appears doomed in the Senate. His effort is largely symbolic, and short-lived, as he faces multiple headaches that essentially guarantee his resolution won’t pass the Senate. 

Midnight Friday is the end of the 15 days for this particular commercial sale to Israel, and the export license can be issued after that. It is usually done so pretty much automatically when time expires.

“Our goal must be to bring, to do everything possible, under very, very difficult circumstances to bring the Israelis and the Palestinians together,” Sanders said. “That is the best way we fight terrorism, not just give support to Israel. We need an even handed approach.”

Typically when lawmakers try to prevent an arms sale — something Congress has never accomplished through a joint resolution — they are able to force a vote, with passage requiring only a simple majority in the Senate by using the Arms Export Control Act to bypass the 60-vote filibuster.

That means Sanders would need 51 votes, or 50 votes and Vice President Harris to vote against the administration’s arms sale.

With deep Democratic divisions over what tactics the administration should deploy against Israel, a long-time ally that typically enjoys bipartisan support, Sanders does not appear to have a path to the votes he needs.

Among those opposing the resolution is Sen. Bob Menendez, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. “I wouldn't be supporting it,” Menendez said.

Sen. Ben Cardin also said he isn’t on board, adding that he doesn’t think there are 50 votes in the Senate to try to block the sale. “I’m not supportive of his resolution,” Cardin said. “I have confidence that the Biden administration is handling it properly.”

Sen. Chris Murphy, who has used the same provision of the Arms Export Control Act to try to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia — said he was waiting to get briefed before taking a position on the sale to Israel.

Sen. Tim Kaine, a member of the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, declined to take a position on Sanders’s resolution but signaled that he trusted the Biden administration’s approach. “The sale is going to take place a year from now ... I hope they are talking to them about the proposed use of these weapons,” Kaine said.

While a growing number of Democrats, including leadership in both chambers, publicly backed efforts for a cease-fire, calling off the arms sale didn’t garner nearly as much support.

Even Sen. Rand Paul, a libertarian-minded Republican who typically supports blocking arms sales, said he wouldn’t back the resolution. "I have been opposed in the past to arms sales to people who I think are acting in a way that's sort of an undemocratic way, a tyrannical way," Paul said. "I think what I see Israel doing is acting in self-defense."

Most arms sales are subject to a 30-day congressional review period during which lawmakers can attempt to block the deal if they want. But some close allies, including Israel, are afforded a 15-day review period, which runs out this week.

But a disagreement has cropped up over when the review window expires and, once it does, what it means for Sanders’s ability to force a vote. “I think procedurally he may be out of time,” Menendez said. “But I’m not sure, we’ll see what the parliamentarian has to say.”

The Senate aide and Cardin both said they expected that once the review window expires, Sanders’s resolution loses its privileged status that allows him to force a quick vote.

Under the fast-track procedures, Sanders still needs to let the resolution sit in the Foreign Relations Committee for 10 calendar days before he can try to bring it to the Senate floor. And the House is out of town until mid-June, well past the congressional review period.

What after ceasefire?

Israel and Hamas finally agreed to a ceasefire on Thursday, ending a bruising 11-day war that caused widespread destruction in the Gaza Strip and brought life in much of Israel to a standstill. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted the Egyptian proposal and Hamas was quick to follow the suit.

In a statement, Netanyahu’s office said the security cabinet unanimously approved the proposal after recommendations from the military chief of staff and other top defence officials. The statement boasted of significant achievements in the operation, some of which are unprecedented.

The agreement would close the heaviest round of fighting between the bitter enemies since a 50-day war in 2014, and once again there was no clear winner. Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hamas but was unable to prevent the rocket fire that has disrupted life for millions of Israelis for more than a decade.

The fighting began on May 10, when Hamas fighters in Gaza fired long-range rockets toward Jerusalem after days of clashes between Palestinian protesters and Israeli police at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound.

Israel launched hundreds of airstrikes targeting what it said was Hamas’ military infrastructure. Hamas fired over 4,000 rockets at Israeli cities, with hundreds falling short and most of the rest intercepted.

The OIC statement came after a virtual meeting in which Saudi Arabia condemned the violation of the sanctity of Muslim holy sites and evictions of Palestinians from their homes in East Jerusalem. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud urged the global community to end the escalation in violence and revive peace negotiations based on a two-state solution.

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates called for a ceasefire. "De-escalation and the highest degree of restraint are important to avoid dragging the region to new levels of instability," said UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem al-Hashimy.

“The massacre of Palestinian children follows the purported normalization,” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said. “This criminal and genocidal regime has once again proven that friendly gestures only aggravate its atrocities.” Zarif accused Israel of “genocide and crimes against humanity”.

"Each time Israel hears a foreign leader speak of its right to defend itself it is further emboldened to continue murdering entire families in their sleep," Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Malki told the Security Council.

The OIC video conference meeting attracted criticism on countries like Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates, which reached normalization deals last year to recognize Israel. Supporters of the Palestinians criticized the countries for recognizing Israel before the formation of an independent Palestinian state.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu joined Zarif in criticizing the normalization. Cavusoglu called for an international protection mechanism for Palestinian civilians and told the OIC that Israel should be held accountable for war crimes and that the International Criminal Court should play a role.

The United States told the United Nations Security Council that it has made clear to Israel, the Palestinians and others that it is ready to offer support should the parties seek a ceasefire to end the worsening violence by Israel in Gaza.

"The United States has been working tirelessly through diplomatic channels to try to bring an end to this conflict," US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the 15-member council. "Because we believe Israelis and Palestinians equally have a right to live in safety and security."

"We call upon the US to shoulder its responsibilities, take a just position, and together with most of the international community support the Security Council in easing the situation," said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who chaired Sunday's meeting because China is president for May.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the United Nations is "actively engaging all sides toward an immediate ceasefire" and called on them "to allow mediation efforts to intensify and succeed".

Way Forward

These quotes clearly indicate that the root cause of the problem is known to all and they are also aware of the solution. Following two states theory can help in establishing sustainable peace in the region. There is a need to convert ‘Gaza the world’s largest open air prison’ into home for Palestinians. United States and other world powers should support Palestine Authority (PA) to initiate economic activities. On top of all Israel must immediately stop eviction of Palestinians from Jerusalem and construction of settlements on occupied land.

Israel deceiving media

Lately, it has been observed that Israel is spreading disinformation at massive sale. The most naked proof of this campaign is this picture placed by The Jerusalem Post. Reportedly the bus was hit by an anti-tank missile. It is evident: 1) it is picture of a bus standing in some junk yard and 2) bus was not hit by anti-tank missile.

According to the The Jerusalem Post, Hamas's Izzadin Al-Qassam Brigades targeted a bus that had been carrying Israeli soldiers north of the Gaza Strip with an anti-tank missile and subsequently launched a barrage of mortar shells towards the site where the bus allegedly was targeted on Thursday morning. The IDF reported that the bus was empty and one soldier was slightly injured in the incident.

The driver of the bus told KAN news about the attack, saying "I dropped off the soldiers, turned around and then there was the hit. The whole vehicle shook, it was a miracle. About 30 soldiers got off a few seconds before and dispersed. I will continue to drive for soldiers. Thank God no one was hurt - the cabin is not protected, everything is plastic."

After the attack, residents of communities within four kilometers of the Gaza border were ordered to stay in their homes near shelters and residents of Netiv Ha'Asara were ordered to actually stay in shelters until further notice.

Time to dump Netanyahu

This morning, I was saddened as well perturbed after reading the details of conversation between the US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

President Biden told Netanyahu, he expects Israel to move towards a ceasefire with Hamas, but Netanyahu said Operation Guardian of the Walls will continue until Israeli citizens are secure.

Earlier, Netanyahu had said Israel does not have a set time by which it seeks to finish Operation Guardian of the Walls. The possible responses to Hamas are to either conquer Gaza or to deter them, he added.

In my opinion only Netanyahu can be held responsible for the present turmoil in the region. He went against the concept of ‘Two States’ and indulged in eviction of Palestinians from Jerusalem. He also continued construction of new settlements on ‘occupied land’.

Under the ‘Abraham Accords’, he was given an opportunity to normalize relations with Muslim countries, but he created a mess rather than building confidence. Now there is pressure on Muslim countries, which normalized relations, to bid farewell to these accords.

On can understand his haste, he was losing popularity in Israel. Four elections may have prolonged his rule, but criminal proceedings and ICC initiation of ‘war crimes’ proceedings shattered his dreams.

Instead of resolving the crisis with cool head, he opted for initiating war against Hamas or ‘conquering’ Gaza. This also backed fired because now followers of Judaism emerge his biggest opponent.   

Look at this picture, be it the residents of Israel or Gaza, they should not be exposed to this kind of torture. To establish sustainable peace in both the areas, the philosophy of ‘eliminating each other’ has to be given up. The prudent approach is, let both the people live in their own areas they way they wish.

It is also to remind that Netanyahu’s term has ended on 5th May 2021 and his stay in the office is ‘illegal’. He must immediately seek ‘vote of confidence’ or President of Israel must ask others to form a new government immediately.

To conclude, Netanyahu has ruled Israel for considerably long time and he must take an exit now. His effort to remain in power by promoting war with Hamas is killing hundreds and thousands of innocent people, both Jews and Muslims.

 

Sale of arms by United States to Israel exposes deep fault lines

The US$735 million weapons sale to Israel exposes deep fault lines in the US administration. The system is clearly split into: 1) diehard supporters of Israel and 2) those who consider Israel’s treatment of Palestinians as a social injustice.

Democratic leaders are paving the way for the sale of weapons, which the Israel Defense Forces can use to make precision strikes against Palestinians.

Democrats who have been critical of Israel’s strikes on Gaza, such as Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, said the weapons sale is a done deal and will not be unwound.

 “That arms sale was already noticed a long time ago. That has gone through a whole vetting process already,” said Menendez, a longtime supporter of Israel who opposed the Iran nuclear deal but has been critical of the recent strikes.

 “That’s the normal process. This is not an unusual process. This is the regular process, regular order on arms sales,” he added.

Opponents of the sale are scrambling for options to respond amid a rapidly closing window for Congress to block the deal.

Most arms sales are subject to a 30-day congressional review period where lawmakers can block a deal if they want. But some close allies, including Israel, are afforded a 15-day review period.

The administration notified lawmakers on 5th May that it had approved selling Israel US735 million weapons, mostly of Boeing-made Joint Direct Attack Munitions that can turn so-called dumb bombs into precision-guided missiles.

House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairwoman Betty McCollum and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders are increasingly pushing to place more conditions on or revisit the US$3.8 billion in military aid the United States sends Israel annually.

Party elders, including House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer are supporting US aid to Israel amid rising criticism of that country’s policies by progressives. They say Israel has a right to defend itself and that the US should provide support.

“Hamas is dedicated to the destruction of Israel. It does not believe that Israel has the right to exist,” Hoyer told reporters on Tuesday. “It is a complicated situation, but I share the president’s view that Israel has the right to defend itself.”

Religious tensions first boiled over at multiple sites in Israel earlier this month when Israeli police raided Al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem, one of the holiest sites in Islam, leaving hundreds of Palestinians wounded.

Hamas has since fired more than 3,000 rockets at Israel — most intercepted by the Iron Dome, a defense system supported by the US and the Israeli government has responded with scores of aerial bombings in Gaza. The number of Palestinian civilians killed and injured vastly exceeds the number of reported Israeli civilian casualties thus far.

President Biden hasn’t publicly demanded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agree to a cease-fire, but the White House said the president expressed support for a cease-fire when the two leaders spoke Monday.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi largely echoed Biden in a Tuesday statement that called for a cease-fire. But in one notable difference that reflects the pressures she’s facing from progressives in her caucus, she called a cease-fire necessary, a word Biden did not use.

“It is in the US national security interest to support security in Israel. Hamas exploited a volatile situation to initiate hostilities against Israel, launching more than 3,000 rockets, and as always, Israel has a right to defend herself,” Pelosi said.

“Now, after more than a week of hostilities, it has become even more apparent that a ceasefire is necessary,” she added. “There must be a serious effort on the part of both parties to end the violence and respect the rights of both the Israeli and Palestinian people.”

Neither Biden nor Pelosi called for an immediate cease-fire, as many liberals are doing. The two also did not call on Israel to change its course, as liberals in the party have demanded.

After news reports about the precision-guided munitions deal, progressive fumed. Rep. Ilhan Omar said it would be “appalling” for the sale to move forward; while Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian American woman elected to Congress, tweeted that there should be “no more weapons to kill children and families.”

On Monday night, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Gregory Meeks convened an emergency virtual meeting of Democrats on the panel to discuss both the arms deal specifically and the crisis in Gaza generally. At the meeting, Meeks told lawmakers he planned to send a letter to the Biden administration seeking a delay in the sale.

But by Tuesday afternoon, Meeks said he dropped the effort after administration officials agreed to brief lawmakers on the sale and the administration’s broader strategy to resolve the crisis.

Apart from arms sales, the United State supports Israel with US$3.8 billion in security assistance annually, as set in a 10-year memorandum of understanding that was signed by the Obama administration in 2016 and entered into force in 2018. The United States is supposed to provide US$3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing funds and US$500 million in missile defense assistance each year of the deal.

Even before the current conflict, McCollum proposed a bill that would bar US funding to Israel from being used to support military detention, interrogation, abuse or ill-treatment of Palestinian children, property seizures and forcible evictions in the occupied Palestinian territories or the deployment of personnel or equipment to annex territory in the West Bank.

Sanders, for his part, tweeted Sunday that we must also take a hard look at nearly US$4 billion a year in military aid to Israel. “It is illegal for US aid to support human rights violations,” he added.