Why does United States want an air base in Pakistan?

According to reports coming through western media the Government of Pakistan (GoP) refuses to publicly acknowledge that it has allowed the CIA operations and will want to proceed cautiously with a new relationship. In the recent past, the US has used a base in Pakistan to launch drone strikes against militants but, the facility had to be vacated in 2011, when US relations with Pakistan unraveled.

William J. Burns, Director CIA, recently made an unannounced visit to Islamabad to meet the chief of the Pakistani military and Head of the Directorate of Inter Services Intelligence. US Defence Secretary Lloyd J. Austin also has had frequent calls with the Pakistani military chief about getting the country’s help for future US operations in Afghanistan.

Historically United States has maintained bases in Pakistan and details can be tracked down starting from cold war era spying of USSR. At one time it became a security threat for the very existence of the country.

During long Afghan war the bases located in Pakistan were to be used for logistic support, but their use for drone attacks was common. While the rulers tried to cover up the deal, public dislike got louder with the passage of time.

The saga of the use of these bases is very interesting, at one time air support was provided to Afghan fighters, known as Taliban involved in Jihad against USSR. However, in post 9/11 era these bases were used against the same Taliban, labeled bad Taliban. In this regard Shamsi base remained in limelight for a long time.

All the times the United States has used ‘arms twisting’ tactics to get control of airbases in Pakistan. In this regard, a conspiracy theory got public attention, when the aero plane of chief of Pakistan Air Force was blown up in air. A number of other senior officers on board were also killed. It was said that his plane was blown up only because he was vehemently opposing establishment of the US air bases in Pakistan.

Alleged killing of air chief, makes solving of jigsaw puzzle easy. Afghanistan is a landlocked country and air support from Arabian Sea is not only too expensive, but time consuming also. Therefore, base/bases have to be established in countries enjoying common border with Afghanistan.  

India could be used but it is too far. United States does not enjoy cordial relations with Iran. Qatar is also too far. In such limiting conditions only Pakistan offers sustainable and cost effective option.

For the incumbent government of Imran Khan allowing establishment of the US bases in Pakistan is not an easy task. It is but obvious that this decision could become a security threat for Pakistan.

 

An uneasy calm prevailing in Pakistan’s neighborhood

Having lived in turmoil area for decades, I feel a bit uncomfortable when a clam prevails in Pakistan’s neighborhood, because it is usually followed by some uncalled-for incident. 

Most of us know that focus of the United States has shifted away from South Asia and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to South China Seas. India is still struggling to control widespread pandemic. Iran is getting ready for Presidential elections scheduled for 11^th June 2021. On top of all a ceasefire has been established between Israel and Hamas.

Afghanistan

As per plan, most of the US soldiers will leave Afghanistan over the next few weeks, which will require ensuring greater air-surveillance and setting up quick response teams to tackle any emergency, mainly because uninterrupted supply lines have to be maintained for thousands of the US contractors that will continue to work in Afghanistan after the departure of troops.

One of the fears is that Afghanistan will once again plunge deep into civil war. This time the situation will be more alarming because of presence of groups supported by United States, Russia, China, India and Iran. In the past Pakistan had faced influx of Afghan refugees, but this time the threat is greater, because of presence of hundred and thousands of militants, who may slip into Pakistan in search of safe heaven.      

India

At present India faces multiple issues, besides COVID. These include boarder issues with China, growing resentment in Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Lately, Maldives has also been offended because of Indian infiltration in its affairs and India not supporting Palestinian cause. India also faces expulsion from Iranian Chabahar port after Iran and China signed various economic cooperation agreements with Iran.    

Iran

A rather complex situation has emerged after the announcement of Presidential elections in Iran. Not only number of candidates is large, but internal rifts are being created to show cracks in the system. The biggest setback is slow down of JPCOA negotiations. It is also becoming evident that there is no likelihood of easing of sanctions in near future. Pakistan has been a victim of imposition of US sanctions on Iran, particularly due to abandoning of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline.

Iran has been openly accused of proxy wars in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Israel has drilled into the minds of Arabs, “Iran is a bigger threat as compared to Israel”. This has not only smashed unity of Muslim Ummah, but also causing transfer of billions of dollars to the United States and other countries manufacturing lethal arms.

Is Israel handing over control of Gaza to Egypt?

There are many rumors that the Egyptians are planning to return to the Gaza Strip. Many people here are convinced that the Egyptian-sponsored reconstruction work is part of a plan to pave the way for a permanent Egyptian security presence in the Gaza Strip.

The Egyptians are working to achieve Palestinian national reconciliation and reunite the West Bank with the Gaza Strip. Egypt has invited representatives of several Palestinian factions to Cairo as it supports the establishment of a Palestinian state comprising of West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem.

It may be recalled that during the 1948 War of Independence, the Arab League established the “All-Palestine Government” to govern the Egyptian-controlled Gaza. Palestinians living in the enclave were issued “All-Palestine” passports. Egypt did not offer them citizenship. After the dissolution of the All-Palestine Government in 1959, Egypt continued to control the Gaza Strip until 1967. The Egyptians never annexed Gaza and chose to administer it through a military governor.

After the establishment of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on 21^st May 2021, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi has pledged US$500 million to help rebuild the houses and buildings that were destroyed during the fighting. Dozens of Egyptian bulldozers, cranes and trucks entered the Gaza last Friday. This created an impression among the Palestinians that Egypt is planning to return to the coastal enclave it ruled between 1948 and 1967.

It is not clear if Egypt wants to go back to the days when it was administering the Gaza. But Sisi’s decision to contribute to the reconstruction effort shows that he wants to be heavily involved with everything concerning Gaza.

Some critics go to the extent of saying that the presence of the Egyptian construction teams in the Gaza means that Hamas and other Palestinian factions will not be able to resume the rocket attacks on Israel.

They say, “It will be hard for Hamas to initiate another round of fighting with Israel when there are many Egyptians inside the Gaza Strip. If Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad starts firing rockets at Israel while the Egyptian construction teams are working in the Gaza, the two groups will get into trouble with Egypt.”

The Head of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service, Abbas Kamel, last week made a rare visit to the Gaza, where he met with leaders of Hamas and other Palestinian factions and discussed with them ways of maintaining the ceasefire and the reconstruction efforts.

It is on record that relations between Egypt and Hamas were strained after Sisi came to power in 2013 after deposing President Mohamed Morsi and outlawing the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2015, an Egyptian court listed Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, as a terrorist organization. Morsi and other members of the Muslim Brotherhood were later charged with spying for Hamas and Iran.

Until a few years ago, Egypt’s state-controlled media had accused Hamas of helping Muslim terrorists who attacked Egyptian security forces in the Sinai. Hamas has strongly denied the charges, saying it does not meddle in the internal affairs of any Arab country. The relations between Egypt and Hamas have improved over the past few years.

Jerusalem flag march cancellation gets mixed response from Muslims and Zionists

A flag march through the Old City of Jerusalem was called off on Monday after Israel Police rejected the organizers' request that participants be allowed to march through the Old City's Damascus Gate. The march was viewed as a possible way to set off violence on the eve of the swearing in of a new government in the Knesset.

Defense Minister Benny Gantz held a briefing on Sunday to discuss the march and urged the police to cancel it. 

On Sunday, Hamas Spokesperson Khalil al-Hayya warned that ‘provocations’ against Palestinians should be stopped, including the flags march, so that this upcoming Thursday ‘is not like 11^th May, or Jerusalem Day, when rockets were hurled towards Jerusalem.

In protest, Palestinian activists groups are planning a counter-march for Thursday, N12 reported.

Israel Police emphasized that the current route of the march has been rejected, but that it could be approved if the route were to change to exclude Damascus Gate.

Religious Zionist MK Bezalel Smotrich called the decision a shameful surrender to terrorism and Hamas threats. His fellow party member, Itamar Ben-Gvir, said that he would still march the planned route. "I do not plan to give up," Ben-Gvir said.

Likud MK May Golan, who was heavily criticized on Monday for referring to Yamina and New Hope Party leaders Naftali Bennett and Gideon Sa'ar as suicide bombers due to their decision to form a government without Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said she would join Ben-Gvir in marching anyway.

The Joint List released a statement in response to the cancellation which said that "Racist hate demonstrations and calls for murder are not protected under freedom of expression and protest. Especially when it comes to occupied territory."

"We will continue to stand firm against the Right's attempts to ignite Jerusalem and the entire region and lead to bloodshed," the statement added.

Originally, the march was scheduled to pass through the Damascus Gate near the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. Organizers said that the march was needed to make up for the one that was cancelled last month on Jerusalem Day due to the escalation in tensions on the Temple Mount and with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. 

A few hours before the controversial Flag March was scheduled to take place, the Sovereignty Movement is expected to launch the 'Greater Jerusalem' project, calling for the expansion of Jerusalem to include Gush Etzion, Mevaseret, Ma'aleh Adumim and parts of the Binyamin Regional Council.

The announcement of the project is scheduled to take place during the third Youth Sovereignty Conference in the Oz veGaon Nature Reserve in Gush Etzion and will "focus on the centrality of Jerusalem in the life of the people of Israel and the State of Israel," the group wrote in a statement.

The leaders of the sovereignty movement, Yehudit Katzover and Nadia Matar, said that the choice to focus on the conference on the centrality of Jerusalem in the life of Israel and the State of Israel stems, among other things, from a reaction to violent riots which shook mixed-ethnicity cities nationwide last month and the threats against Israel which were seen coming from Iran, Turkey, Hamas and Hezbollah.

"The struggle for the path of Zionism and the righteousness of the path of Zionism begins in Jerusalem," they said.

"The enemies of Israel clearly recognize the centrality of Jerusalem and they wave it again and again as a pretext for attacking Israel," the statement said, adding that last month's riots "also began under the pretext of Arab defense of Jerusalem."

"In the face of all this, the clear and distinct voice of the Israeli youth is imbued with the belief in the righteousness of his way, aware of his mission in the Zionist chain, and especially well aware of the importance and centrality of Jerusalem, the eternal capital of the eternal people," the statement continued.

According to Katzover and Matar, the conference's purpose is not just a celebration of Jerusalem. They are also hoping it leads to renewed calls for a unilateral annexation of territories which are currently under the control of the Palestinian Authority.

"In this spirit," Katzover and Matar said in their statement, "the third conference of the sovereignty youth will be held, and from it will emerge a renewed call for the application of Israeli sovereignty over the entire country from the Galilee through Judea, Samaria, Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley to the Negev."

Critics of unilateral annexation of the West Bank say that forcing a regime on Palestinians without supplying them with full and equal voting rights would result in a form of apartheid and that forcing one while supplying them with equal voting rights would mean an end to the Jewish majority in Israel. 

The organizers of the conference said that at the end of the gathering, which has so far enrolled hundreds of youths from all over the country, buses will allocated to take interested participants to the march.

The Sovereignty Movement released another statement after police announced the cancellation, saying "It is very unfortunate that we are folding under Hamas threats. The sovereignty of Jerusalem is violated and our dignity as a free people in our country and our capital is trampled."

"The enemies feel and understand the spiritual power of Jerusalem, they know very well that Jerusalem is the center of our being and therefore harm it," the statement said, again referring to Hamas.

The statement reiterated the 'Greater Jerusalem' project, saying "Jerusalem must grow, become stronger and become a metropolis with satellite cities in order for its national and international status to be strengthened, so that its demographics change with an absolute Jewish majority."

The Sovereignty Movement has not announced whether the buses to central Jerusalem will be called off due to the march's cancellation.