Since launching Operation Epic Fury, US forces have
reportedly struck some 6,000 Iranian targets, damaging naval vessels, missile
launch sites, and other military infrastructure. The US Central Command says
more than 90 Iranian vessels have been neutralized. Experts argue that Iran
anticipated such attacks and structured its defense around confronting
conventionally superior foes.
Analysts note that Iran is deliberately prolonging the
conflict, betting it can endure military pressure longer than the US can
withstand domestic political fallout. Rising oil prices, disruptions in global
energy markets, and attacks on US allies in the Gulf have intensified the
economic and diplomatic costs of the war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz
has pushed oil prices near US$100 per barrel, adding further pressure on the
global economy.
Military
analysts suggest that Iran’s definition of victory is simple - survival.
Removing the current leadership in Tehran would require far greater military
commitment than the United States has so far deployed. Pentagon
officials reported that the war cost over $11.3 billion in just the first six
days. The conflict has also taken a human toll - seven American service members
have died, and roughly 140 have been wounded.
In his first statement as Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba
Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and continue military
pressure on regional adversaries. The US is considering naval escorts for oil
tankers through the waterway. Analysts warn that as the conflict drags on,
rising economic costs, political divisions in Washington, and potential
casualties could erode domestic support for what some critics describe as an
“optional war.”
While US
and Israeli forces dominate tactically, Iran’s endurance strategy could make
the political and economic cost of the conflict unsustainable for the United
States, leaving the regime in Tehran intact and the strategic balance in the
Gulf uncertain.
