Is the US hegemony around the world ending?

The horrifying images of desperate Afghans trying to get out of Kabul after the US-backed government collapsed in August signify a major twist in world history, the end of the US hegemony had come earlier than anticipated.

The growing weakness of United States can be attributed more to the domestic issues rather than its overseas proxy wars. The country is gradually losing status of largest ‘economic power’ as well as its ability to fix internal problems.

The peak period of the US hegemony lasted less than 20 years, from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the financial crisis of 2007-09. The country was dominant in many domains of power—military, economic, political and cultural.

The height of American hubris was the invasion of Iraq in 2003, when it hoped to remake not just Iraq and Afghanistan, but the whole Middle East. The United States not only overestimated the effectiveness of its military power to bring about deep political change, but also underestimated the impact of its free-market economic model on global finance.

The decade ended with its troops bogged down in two counterinsurgency wars and a financial crisis that accentuated the inequalities of US-led globalization had brought about.

The degree of uni-polarity in this period has been rare in history, and the world has been reverting to a more normal state of multi-polarity ever since, with China, Russia, India, Europe and others gaining power relative to counter the US.

Afghanistan’s ultimate effect on geopolitics is not likely to be small. The US may have survived an earlier, humiliating defeat when it withdrew from Vietnam in 1975, but regained its dominance within little more than a decade. The much bigger challenge to the US global standing is domestic.

American society has become deeply polarized and has found it difficult to find consensus on virtually anything. This polarization started over conventional policy issues like taxes and abortion, but has since metastasized into a bitter fight over cultural identity.

Normally a big external threat such as a global pandemic should be the occasion for citizens to rally around a common response. But the covid-19 crisis served rather to deepen divide in the United States, with social distancing, mask-wearing and vaccinations being seen not as public-health measures but as political markers. These conflicts have spread to all aspects of life, from sport to the brands of consumer products that red and blue Americans buy.

Many analysts believe that the US influence abroad depends on its ability to fix its internal problems. Polarization has affected foreign policy directly.

During Barack Obama’s presidency, Republicans took a hawkish stance and scolded Democrats for the Russian “reset” and alleged naivety regarding Vladimir Putin.

Donald Trump turned the tables by embracing Putin, and today roughly half of Republicans believe that the Democrats constitute a bigger threat to the American way of life than Russia does.

There is more apparent consensus regarding China as both Republicans and Democrats agree it is a threat to democratic values. A far greater test of the US foreign policy than Afghanistan will be Taiwan, if it comes under direct Chinese attack. Will the United States be willing to sacrifice its sons and daughters on behalf of that island’s independence?

Would the US risk military conflict with Russia should it invade Ukraine? These are serious questions with no easy answers. A reasoned debate about the US national interest has to be conducted primarily through the lens of how it affects the partisan struggle.

The biggest policy debacle of President Joe Biden’s administration in its first year has been its failure to plan adequately for the rapid collapse of Afghanistan.

Biden has suggested that withdrawal was necessary in order to focus on meeting the bigger challenges from Russia and China. Obama was never successful in making a “pivot” to Asia because the US remained focused on counterinsurgency in the Middle East.

In 2022, the administration needs to redeploy both resources and the attention of policymakers to deter geopolitical rivals and engage with allies.

The United States is not likely to regain its earlier hegemonic status, nor should it aspire to. What it can hope for is to sustain, with like-minded countries, a world order friendly to democratic values. The ability do this depend on recovering a sense of national identity and purpose at home.

United States may send some evacuees back to Afghanistan

According to a CNN report, Biden administration is mulling plans to send some Afghan evacuees at a US military base in Kosovo back to Afghanistan, in case they fail to pass a vigorous vetting process. 

The option is one of several being considered by US officials who have not yet developed a wider plan for where to resettle Afghans who do not pass the security clearance process.

About 70,000 Afghan evacuees have come to the United States following the chaotic scramble to evacuate US forces and vulnerable populations from Afghanistan in August.

Tens of thousands of other evacuees were sent to sites across Europe and the Middle East to be processed before moving on to the US or a partner third country.

Administration officials have made clear that all Afghans looking to come to the United States must pass a security screening and vetting process and receive necessary vaccinations before they are permitted to enter.

But those whose cases required more intense vetting are being transferred to Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo, with roughly 200 individuals, including family members, now at the base. The administration and Kosovo’s government have an agreement to house evacuees there for up to a year.

Should an individual at Bondsteel not pass vetting, he/she could then choose to go back to Afghanistan and would not be sent back to the country against their will.

Before such a move, there would be a conversation to examine whether there was a third country where they could travel instead.

Sending evacuees back to Afghanistan without their permission would be a departure from the administration’s previous promise to transfer such individuals to a third country and raise human rights concerns and legal questions.

US officials have also been very vague about which countries would then take those individuals.

While nobody sent to Kosovo has yet been deemed unable to enter the United States, some US officials and lawmakers worry that should individuals not pass clearances there are limited options for them. They could, for example, be stuck on a base long-term.

One senior administration official told CNN that the security flags that have led to people being transferred to Bondsteel are usually not those “that can be resolved within hours or even within days.”

The US has not sent anyone back to Afghanistan, but the official said they “would leave all such possibilities on the table, which includes the fact that you might have evacuees for whom that is their preferred destination if the United States is not an option.”

Europe decoupling from China would not be right, says Merkel

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that decoupling from China is not the right option for Europe, despite tense relationship. The outgoing leader told Reuters in an interview that Germany may have been naive in some areas of cooperation with China.

“Maybe initially we were rather too naive in our approach to some cooperation partnerships,” she said. “These days we look more closely, and rightly so.”

But, she said it was important for Germany and the European Union to continue to cooperate with China and to learn from one another.

“Total decoupling wouldn’t be right in my view, it would be damaging for us,” she said.

Merkel also said, Germany was continuously in discussions with Beijing on intellectual property and patent protection, “both with regard to Chinese students in Germany and German enterprises operating in China”.

Merkel has sought to engage with China during her 16 years at the helm and helped to nurture EU-China ties. She did not seek re-election in the September election and will step down once a new coalition government is formed.

China became Germany’s biggest trade partner in 2016 and its rapid economic expansion has fuelled German growth throughout Merkel’s tenure. Some critics say Germany is now too reliant on China, and becoming too soft on Beijing on awkward issues such as human rights violations.

Merkel’s government has said she always addressed human rights issues on her official visits to China – she has visited the country 12 times as chancellor – and has sought to diversify trade in Asia.

Her remarks come as relations between China and the EU are at a low point over a growing list of issues, including Hong Kong and Xinjiang. In May, the European Parliament halted ratification of an investment treaty with China after the two sides imposed tit-for-tat sanctions over Beijing’s alleged human rights abuses against Uygurs in the far western Xinjiang region.

Beijing hits back at Western sanctions against China’s alleged treatment of Uygur Muslims.

Beijing has also been angered by some European nations seeking closer ties with self-ruled Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory. Brussels was preparing to announce a new strategic format for liaising with Taiwan on trade and economic issues this week, but it was postponed at the eleventh hour, sources told the South China Morning Post. It is expected to be revisited at a later date, according to a European Parliament source.

As Brussels tries to balance ties between Beijing and Taipei, China is trying to re-engage with Europe. Zhang Ming, China’s ambassador to the European Union, has said there are plans to hold an EU-China summit by the end of this year.

On climate issues, Merkel told Reuters that she had urged Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in a phone call to use cleaner technology if new coal-fired plants were being built in China.

“I have just spoken to the Chinese premier and discussed whether it would not be better, if his country is going to build coal-fired power plants, to at least build the latest generation,” she said.

Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union, is headed for the opposition and likely to take a “hawkish turn on China” after she steps down, according to Noah Barkin, a Europe-China expert at Rhodium Group.

“The government that replaces her will also strike a different tone because it will include two parties, the Greens and Free Democrats, who support a harder line,” Barkin said.

“In her final months in office, Merkel has been doing all she can to ensure that her dialogue-first approach to China remains in place after her departure. But the political mood in Germany, as well as China’s own trajectory, suggest otherwise.”

 

Iran keen in developing links with neighbors

Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran for Economic Diplomacy Mehdi Safari has said it is a priority to expand economic and trade cooperation with neighbors, saying the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) can help achieve this goal.

Safari made the remarks at a meeting with ECO Secretary-General Khosrow Nazeri on the eve of the ECO summit in Turkmenistan, Mehr reported on Wednesday.

ECO includes Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

At the meeting, the ECO chief presented a report on the process to prepare for the summit in Ashgabat and hailed Iran for its assistance in this regard.

Safari said expansion of economic and trade cooperation with neighbors is a priority of the new Iranian administration and stressed the role of ECO in achieving the goals of member countries.

The top diplomat said a plan by Iran to send a high-level team to the forthcoming summit signifies the prominent position of ECO.

Safari said Iran is ready help ECO members to implement important decisions at the ECO summit in Ashgabat.

Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister Rostam Qasemi said that positive agreements have been reached with neighboring countries, for expansion of transportation cooperation, especially in the aviation sector, IRNA reported.

Speaking at the ceremony on introducing the new head of Civil Aviation Organization (CAO), Qasemi said, “We recently reached agreements with Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, part of which is related to the development of aviation.”

According to the official, the expansion of transportation cooperation with other countries will lead to the expansion of trade ties and eventually will increase the country’s revenues.

“We have made plans for upgrading our transportation fleet. However, we need effective measures to be taken for the development of the aviation industry,” he stressed.

He further stated that the most important factor in the development of the aviation industry is the use of specialists to promote it, adding: “In order to empower the aviation industry to meet the needs of the country, we need more work to be done, and this capability exists inside the country.”

Elsewhere in his remarks, Qasemi mentioned the needs of other transportation sectors including road, maritime, and rail, and said, “The transport sector needs to modernize its fleet, and we have not yet achieved the goals of the program in the rail, sea, and land sectors.”

Ghasemi pointed to the existing problems in the railway fleet and also the incompleteness of the country’s railway corridors and said, "Conditions in the railway sector are not favorable, the average life of the road transportation fleet is high and in the sea sector, despite high capacities, the capacity of the country’s ports has not been used well."

 

Christmas without fanfare

Christmas is set to be spoilt for many Americans by rising prices. While retailers are forecasting a record holiday spending season, inequalities in the economic recovery will again be laid bare.

Inflation is especially taking a toll on lower-income families, who spend roughly a third of their earnings on essentials like food and energy, according to this report by Amelia Pollard and Olivia Rockeman.

It’s eating into recent wage increases, and the timing couldn’t be worse after federal pandemic relief expired for about 7.5 million people.

“Anything that in the very short run puts a lot of pressure on family budgets across the board will cause more stress and damage to low-income households because they just have less scope to absorb it,” said Josh Bivens, director of research for the Economic Policy Institute.

A majority of Americans flush with over US$2 trillion in excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are ready to splurge on gifts and holiday trips.

At the same time, more than 11% of Americans don’t plan to spend at all, the greatest share in at least 10 years and more than double that in 2020, according to a Deloitte survey.

And the Salvation Army is bracing for a holiday season similar to that after the 2008 financial crisis, according to National Commander Kenneth Hodder.

Nery Peña, a first-grade teacher and single mom of two in Washington, DC, says the child tax credit and stimulus checks were a lifeline this past year.

While she’s received around US$500 a month since July, the next tax-credit payment due around December 15, this year will be the last one unless Congress passes the social-spending package, and she’s already started to curb her spending.

“Food prices are going up, gas prices are going up — prices are going up everywhere,” said Peña. “Thank God my daughters understand, but as a mom, it just sucks to tell your kids Christmas won’t be that Christmassy this year.”

CNN reports Biden-Kamala rift

On Monday, White House made a concerted effort to defend Vice President Harris from media criticism, saying she is an important part of the team and signaling she’ll play a role in promoting the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

The pushback came after a CNN report that cast doubt on the vice president’s standing in the Biden administration and said there were rifts within the Biden-Harris operation.

It’s one of a few pieces that have appeared in recent weeks that have taken a critical eye of Harris or that have raised questions about her prospects as a potential successor to Biden as soon as 2024 if he changes his public position and declines to run for reelection. Last week, a Los Angeles Times column’s headline read: “Kamala Harris, the incredible disappearing vice president.” 

The officials dismissed talk of a rift as “gossip,” and a number of faces in Biden World offered on-the-record statements or tweets defending the vice president and pouring cold water on any suggestion that she feels constrained.   

The White House announced that Harris will visit Columbus, Ohio — the capital of a swing state — on Friday to promote the US$1.2 trillion infrastructure bill. White House press secretary Jen Psaki called Harris “a valuable member of our team.” 

“The president relies on the vice president for her advice, for her counsel,” Psaki said after she was pressed on the news reports suggesting Harris is unhappy in her position. “She is somebody who is not only taking on issues that are challenging; she is not looking for a cushy role here. No vice president, no president is.” 

“The president selected the vice president to serve as his running mate because he felt she was exactly the person he wanted to have by his side to govern the country,” she added.

Outside advisers also pushed back against the onslaught of negative coverage and said Harris’s main objective is to advance the Biden agenda.

“While it’s difficult to stop the endless swipes, past gripes or the inside the beltway second-guessing squad, it’s vital that Vice President Harris continue to take meaningful action in helping President Biden deliver for the American people,” said former Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Donna Brazile. 

“It’s untenable for modern vice presidents to succeed in their role as being No. 2. Thus, her number one goal must remain to support the president of the United States,” Brazile said.

On Monday, at least publicly, Harris and Biden seemed as close as ever.

They walked out with one another to the White House signing ceremony for the infrastructure bill. Harris delivered remarks alongside Biden, commending his leadership. Biden thanked the vice president and others for their work and noted that Harris would be among those promoting the bill.

Harris has seen her own approval ratings slide as Biden’s have been in the dumps.

A USA Today-Suffolk University poll out last week showed Harris with an approval rating of 28%, lower than Biden’s 38%. 

Supporters say media stories about strife between the vice president and Biden or their camps are not doing anyone favors.

“These stories don’t help anybody. And they don’t matter. All they do is embarrass the vice president, embarrass the president and hurt the party,” said one former Harris staffer who requested anonymity to speak candidly.

The former staffer said it didn’t matter who was doing the sniping but suggested it could have been former staffers or donors who are upset about not having the same level of access to Harris.

The source also pointed out that much of Harris’s staff are Biden people or were picked by Biden aides, which could also contribute to some of the feelings of dysfunction.

“People can be frustrated all they want, but it’s not helpful,” the former staffer said. “It’s not helpful to anybody, and it’s certainly not advancing the vice president’s political position. It makes her look weak.”

Harris just completed what was generally seen as a successful trip abroad to France to help bolster ties between Washington and Paris after a fallout earlier this year over a submarine deal with Australia. And her aides sought to minimize the CNN report as Beltway chatter. 

“It is unfortunate that after a productive trip to France in which we reaffirmed our relationship with America’s oldest ally and demonstrated US leadership on the world stage, and following passage of a historic, bipartisan infrastructure bill that will create jobs and strengthen our communities, some in the media are focused on gossip — not the results that the ‘resident and the Vice President have delivered,” Harris chief spokesperson and senior advisor Symone Sanders tweeted.

Harris is presiding over a difficult and expansive policy portfolio that includes immigration and voting rights.

She’s also leading the National Space Council and taking meetings with foreign leaders. While she’s been less visible in Biden’s effort to get the infrastructure bill passed, officials insist she is still playing a meaningful role. Harris was among a group that made calls alongside Biden earlier this month when the White House was trying to get the legislation across the finish line in the House. 

As vice president, she would be considered among the front-runners to carry the party mantle should Biden opt not to run again in 2024. But others are also seen as positioning themselves for that race, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

“There is skepticism among the Democratic establishment that Kamala can be the standard-bearer of the party, and I’m not sure she’s done a lot to dispel that in the last year,” the former Harris staffer said.

At the same time, some Harris allies complained that the White House needs to continue to do more to help position her, especially if she is the heir apparent to Biden should he choose not to run for reelection in 2024. 

 “Simply put, I think people expected her to have a higher profile,” one ally said. “What happens if she runs in 2024? They’re not helping matters."

At the briefing on Monday, Psaki put it this way: “I don’t have any predictions of whether she will run, when she will run. I will leave that to her and they do not reflect his view of our experience with the vice president.”

Iran accuses US supporting ISIS in Afghanistan

Iran's special envoy for Afghanistan said on Monday that after the defeat in Afghanistan, the United States is trying to support the ISIS terrorist group.

"The aggressor country, which intended to rule Afghanistan for the past 20 years, is now trying to strengthen the takfiri groups in Afghanistan after its defeat," Hassan Kazemi Qomi said.

Arriving in Kabul, the Iranian diplomat told reporters that the purpose of his visit was to discuss political, economic, security and Afghan refugee issues with the officials of interim government.

"We respect the will of the Afghan people and our position is in line with the wishes of the Afghan people," Kazemi Qomi told a reporter when asked about recognizing the Taliban government.

Iran's special envoy for Afghanistan expressed hope that with formation of a strong government in Afghanistan, stability would prevail in the region.

The diplomat went on to say that "Afghanistan, like the Islamic Republic of Iran, is facing oppressive Western sanctions and the two countries will try to cooperate more by ensuring security in the borders."

The Iranian envoy in his remarks underlined that Iran had always stood by the people of Afghanistan and today stands by the people of Afghanistan in all aspects of security, economy and politics.

Referring to the US defeat in Afghanistan, the envoy said some countries are exploiting terrorism to launch a proxy war in Afghanistan.

Earlier, the embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Kabul announced the trip. It said, "Kazemi is scheduled to talk with senior Taliban officials on various issues such as regional issues, refugees, humanitarian aid, formation of an inclusive government and especially economic issues. Helping the Afghan people is a priority before the cold season."

Speaking at his weekly press briefing on Monday, Saeed Khatibzadeh, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that Qomi’s trip to Kabul will address the current and future status of the people of Afghanistan.

He then said that Iran has tried to make the Afghan people bear the least impact from the developments in Afghanistan and the catastrophic departure of the United States from the country.

The diplomat noted that the responsibilities of this governing body will be discussed.

“We are concerned about extremism and terrorism, and we have witnessed the disgusting act of terrorism in attacking worshippers, and it is the direct responsibility of the governing body to protect the security of worshippers and the people of Afghanistan,” he insisted.

He then said that Iran has news of the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan, which is worrying and is one of the topics that will be discussed during the trip by the special envoy to Afghanistan.

ISIS has been targeting worshippers since the Taliban took power in August. Its suicidal attacks on worshippers in Kunduz (northern Afghanistan) on October 8 and Kandahar (southern Afghanistan) on October 15 were horrific.

It also attacked a military hospital in Kabul on November 2. At least 25 people were killed and more than a dozen were wounded during the attack.

The attack, which included armed gunmen and at least one suicide bomber, targeted the 400-bed Sardar Mohammad Daud Khan military hospital.

Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Taliban, said the attack was carried out by several members of ISIS, including a suicide bomber who detonated his explosives at the gate to the hospital. A car full of explosives outside the hospital also exploded, wounding dozens, and several Taliban fighters were killed and wounded in the ensuing gun battle, Mujahid said.

Iran hosted the meeting of the foreign ministers of countries neighboring Afghanistan on October 27. The participants at the conference insisted on the need for security in Afghanistan and formation of an inclusive government among other issues.