PSX benchmark index records nominal increase despite volatility

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PX) ended the week on a positive note, albeit remaining volatile throughout the week, pressured by investor skepticism given uncertainty stemming from heightened geopolitical tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Pakistan secured a staff-level agreement with IMF in its second review for the US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility program and first review of Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The benchmark index gained 708 points during the week, witnessing it’s second highest single-day gain of 7,033 points on Tuesday, up 0.4%WoW, to close at 163,806 level.

Market participation strengthened by 36%WoW with average daily traded volume reported at 2.2 billion shares, as compared to 1.6 billion shares a week ago.

On the macroeconomic front, petroleum imports for September 2025 were reported at US$1.2 billion, down 11%YoY.

Textiles and clothing exports for September 2025 were recorded at US$1.6 billion, down 2%YoY.

Roshan Digital Accounts inflows for September 2025 were recorded at US$196 million, up 17%YoY

LSM output increased by 0.5%YoY during August 2025.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$21 million to US$14.4 billion as of October 10, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan and Saudi Arabia agreed to explore new trade, investment avenues, 2) Shehbaz and COAS to visit Saudi Arabia from October 26, 3) Pakistan and Vietnam begin PTA talks to expand trade, investment, 4) Nepra gives the go-ahead to effect CTBCM, and 5) Petrol and diesel prices slashed.

Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Commercial Banks, INV.Banks/ INV.Cos/ Securities Cos, Power Generation & Distribution and Paper & Board were amongst the top performing sectors, while Close-end Mutual Funds, Leasing Companies, Modarabas, Textile Weaving and Leather & Tanneries were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds and Insurance aggregating to US$36.5 million, which was mostly absorbed by Companies recording net buy of US$30.3 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PSEL, BOP, SSOM, PSX, and LOTCHEM, while laggards included: GADT, PKGP, PABC, and JVDC.

According to AKD Securities, believes the bullish momentum o continue given successful staff-level agreement of the IMF’s second review, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the US and Saudi Arabia.

The outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities, offering attractive dividend yield.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, and INDU.

 

Dollar Bomb Ticking Faster and Louder

When I uploaded my post “Dollar Bomb Can Burst Any Time” on August 24, 2020, only a few took it seriously. Five years later, the warning sounds louder — and far more credible — as de-dollarization gains momentum across continents. The same excesses once confined to American finance have now evolved into a global geopolitical fault line. 

The warning signs are flashing brighter than ever. The scale of money creation in the United States has reached alarming proportions. With public debt now exceeding US$35 trillion and fiscal deficits continuing to mount, the Federal Reserve faces a trap of its own making. Keeping interest rates high risks plunging the economy into recession, while lowering them could reawaken inflation. Either way, the era of cheap money that once fueled global dominance of the dollar is drawing to a close.

Now critics openly say that the so-called “resilient” US economy rests on shaky foundations. Growth is being financed not by productivity, but by unprecedented monetary expansion. More than 60 cents of every dollar the federal government spends is borrowed or printed. This illusion of prosperity masks structural decay — the same speculative excesses and fiscal irresponsibility that triggered the 2008 financial crisis, now magnified many times over.

The repercussions are no longer confined to American borders. A growing number of countries are openly challenging the dollar’s hegemony. The BRICS alliance — now expanded to include energy-rich nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE — is laying the groundwork for a new trade settlement system that bypasses the US financial network. China is leading the charge, pushing for the yuan in energy transactions and bilateral trade, while Russia and Iran have turned to local currency arrangements to circumvent sanctions.

The Gulf states, long considered the backbone of the petrodollar system, are quietly rethinking their dependence on the greenback. Deals between Beijing and Riyadh to price oil in yuan have sent shockwaves through Washington. Once the world’s major energy producers start accepting payments in other currencies, the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency will erode faster than expected.

The US, meanwhile, continues to export inflation through its fiscal recklessness. Ordinary Americans face rising living costs, while policymakers keep resorting to debt-financed spending. Analysts warn that if confidence in the dollar falters, the US could face a sovereign debt crisis of its own — one that no amount of printing can avert. When foreign creditors and central banks begin to question Washington’s ability to repay without devaluation, the “safe haven” myth collapses.

Gold purchases by central banks have surged to multi-decade highs, underscoring a quiet but steady return to real assets. The shift is not just financial — it is geopolitical. The world’s emerging powers are building an alternative order that no longer depends on US control of money, trade, or technology.

If the dollar bomb bursts, the consequences will be global and enduring. Markets will convulse, commodities will reprice, and the old financial hierarchy will crumble. The illusion of endless American solvency will fade — replaced by a multipolar monetary world, one no longer bound by the dictates of Washington.

Gaza: Ceasefire Brings Pause, Not Peace

The guns may be silent, but Gaza’s agony speaks louder than ever.

A so-called ceasefire has brought convoys of aid — yet little real relief.

Food, medicine, and hope still arrive in drips, controlled by politics, not compassion.

Since the ceasefire, the World Food Program has doubled its food deliveries, moving over 30,000 metric tons into Gaza. UN agencies report that food parcels now reach around two million people, while a handful of bakeries and community kitchens distribute bread and cooked meals. Hospitals, crippled by months of bombardment, are receiving trauma kits and essential drugs. Fuel is trickling in to keep generators and water plants barely alive.

Beneath the headlines of “increased aid,” the reality is bleak. Bureaucratic controls, damaged crossings, and arbitrary inspections keep the flow of food and medicine painfully slow.

Relief convoys wait for hours—sometimes days—before getting clearance. Many trucks carry only a fraction of the approved supplies. Even after the ceasefire, Gaza remains under a suffocating blockade that decides who eats, who heals, and who waits.

The world celebrates “humanitarian access,” but it is access rationed by politics. The people of Gaza are being fed just enough to survive, not enough to recover. Hospitals still run without electricity, clean water is scarce, and disease spreads in overcrowded shelters. Aid workers describe the situation bluntly: this is not relief—it is controlled suffering.

If the international community truly wants peace, it must go beyond token shipments and staged announcements. Gaza needs unrestricted, sustained aid and a genuine commitment to rebuild lives, not just manage despair. Otherwise, the ceasefire will be remembered not as a turning point, but as another pause before the next tragedy.

 

All Is Not as Rosy as Stated by the State Bank of Pakistan

The State Bank of Pakistan’s Annual Report for FY25 paints a picture of economic stability — lower inflation, fiscal discipline, and an improving external balance. Yet behind this carefully crafted optimism lies a harsher reality: the recovery remains shallow, driven less by structural reform and more by temporary external support. To read details click https://shkazmipk.com/state-of-pakistan-economy-22/

Trump’s Dirty War in the Caribbean

Washington’s addiction to regime change has found a new victim — Venezuela

When power turns lawless, the result is not policy but brutality. The latest revelation that Donald Trump secretly authorized the CIA to conduct lethal operations in Venezuela exposes the United States’ old imperial reflex — to destroy what it cannot control. Cloaked in the language of “national security,” Washington is once again exporting death under the banner of democracy.

According to The New York Times, Trump’s inner circle — led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe — gave the agency sweeping authority to target Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with or without military coordination. This covert license coincides with Trump’s deadly boat bombings in the Caribbean that have already claimed civilian lives. What began as a “war on drugs” now reeks of a war for oil and geopolitical dominance.

The much-hyped “America First” doctrine has mutated into an unapologetic form of gunboat diplomacy. History is repeating itself — coups in Guatemala, Chile, and Nicaragua are being replayed in a new theater. By designating drug cartels as “terrorist organizations,” Trump has arrogated to himself the right to kill without consequence, erasing the last boundaries between law and lawlessness.

Human rights groups call it what it is — murder. Even Colombian President Gustavo Petro warns that a new war zone has opened in the Caribbean, a tragic reminder that Washington’s militarism remains as indiscriminate as ever. The Caribbean, once a symbol of trade and culture, risks becoming another testing ground for American aggression.

Trump’s Venezuela campaign is not a policy — it is a crime unfolding in real time. Behind the patriotic slogans lies the same old formula: destabilize, divide, and dominate.

Empires do not collapse when they are challenged — they collapse when they mistake impunity for strength. Trump’s dirty war in the Caribbean may well be remembered as that fatal arrogance, when America’s moral compass finally sank beneath its own waves.

Stock Market Investors: Sad One Day, Jubilant the Next

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continues to mirror the country’s volatility — euphoric one day, anxious the next. Despite its recent upward trajectory, warnings of a potential correction were largely ignored. When the inevitable dips arrived, they rattled investors, particularly amid heavy selling by mutual funds.

The start of the week was a rollercoaster. On Monday, the benchmark index plunged by 4,600 points as rising border tensions with Afghanistan, political instability in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and violent protests in Punjab weighed heavily on sentiment. Yet, within 24 hours, the market staged an extraordinary rebound — gaining nearly 7,000 points on Tuesday and recovering most of its earlier losses.

According to Yousuf M. Farooq, Director of Research at Chase Securities, the rebound was driven by an overnight easing of domestic unrest and improving signals on the Afghanistan front. His observation underscores how sentiment-driven and headline-sensitive the market remains, reacting more to news flow than to fundamentals.

Analysts agree that valuations still look attractive, with several sectors trading below their intrinsic worth. However, they also caution that risks persist. Any slippage on the current account or fiscal front could quickly reverse the recent gains. The macroeconomic environment remains fragile, and the market’s wild swings are a reminder that stability in the PSX cannot be achieved without stability in policy and politics alike.

In short, the stock market’s mood swings are less about numbers and more about nerves. Until investors see a consistent policy direction and improved economic fundamentals, the PSX will continue to oscillate — keeping investors, as always, sad one day and jubilant the next.

Gold Producers Mine, Speculators Shine

Gold’s shine now comes not from the mines but from trading screens. Speculators have turned the world’s oldest store of value into its newest illusion. When this paper empire collapses, even the glitter may not be enough to hide the dust.

Gold has long stood as the ultimate symbol of stability and value. But in today’s financialized world, even this ancient asset has been corrupted by speculation. Its price is no longer shaped by miners or jewelers, but by traders and investment funds sitting in New York and London.

Through paper-based instruments — futures, derivatives, and exchange-traded funds — the real gold market has been replaced by a digital mirage.

The volume of “paper gold” traded daily now exceeds the physical supply many times over. Most of these trades never result in delivery; these are mere wagers on price movements, structured to enrich financial institutions that thrive on volatility. Yet it is these speculative markets that set the global benchmark, dictating prices for producers who dig real gold out of the earth.

When prices rise, consumers are blamed for hoarding; when they fall, producers are accused of oversupply. The truth is far simpler — and more sinister. Speculators, hedge funds, and bullion banks create artificial swings to profit from chaos.

This is not a free market; it is financial exploitation disguised as efficiency. The nations that mine gold, particularly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, remain economically captive to benchmarks manipulated in the West.

This distortion mirrors what has already happened in the oil trade. Real producers carry the burden; paper traders pocket the rewards. Unless gold pricing returns to physical delivery and transparent regional exchanges, the world risks another systemic shock — one that could undermine confidence not only in gold, but in the global financial order itself.

Gold’s value lies in its physical reality — in what can be touched, stored, and trusted. Once that link is broken, even the world’s most trusted metal becomes just another speculative bubble. And when it bursts, the glitter will fade — leaving behind nothing but dust.