Omar New Chief Minister of Jammu & Kashmir

Omar Abdullah was sworn in as the chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir on Wednesday. Abdullah, the chairman of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) party, is now the leader of Kashmir's first elected government since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) revoked the region's special semi-autonomous status in 2019.

Now Jammu and Kashmir is directly administered by the Indian federal government in New Delhi. 

The swearing-in ceremony took place in the city of Srinigar, the largest city in Jammu and Kashmir. 

Abdullah's JKNC won the most seats in a three-phase election prior to his swearing-in.

The JKNC is staunchly opposed to Modi's move to abrogate Kashmir's Article 370 of semi autonomy, with the JKNC's victory seen as backlash against Modi's decision. 

Manoj Sinha, a member of the ruling BJP, administered the oath of office to Abdullah. Sinha serves as the Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, a position that was created by the 2019 Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act in the wake of Article 270's abrogation. 

Modi, in a post on X, congratulated Abdullah on becoming chief minister: "Wishing him the very best in his efforts to serve the people." 

The JKNC is allied with the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which is led by India's largest opposition party, the Indian National Congress.

Rahul Gandhi, a member of the Congress Party who serves as leader of opposition in the Indian parliament's lower house, or Lok Sabha, was present at Abdullah's swearing in.   

Gandhi extended his congratulations to Abdullah in a post on X. At the same time, he said "government formation without statehood felt incomplete today."

"Democracy was snatched from the people of Jammu and Kashmir, and today we renew our pledge to continue our fight until statehood is fully restored," Gandhi said. 

 

Biden administration persistently lying

Reportedly the Biden-Harris administration has sent a letter to Israel saying that if Israel doesn’t take steps within 30 days to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza, it “may have implications for US policy” under laws prohibiting US military aid to countries that block US humanitarian aid.

Israel has already blocked US humanitarian aid to Gaza for months, meaning US military aid to Israel is already illegal. And this is not simply a “humanitarian crisis” that can be solved with humanitarian aid; this is genocide. 

Humanity and US law both demand a weapons embargo now, not vague statements that Israel “may” face future “implications” for continuing to commit genocide.

The Biden-Harris administration’s statements cannot be taken at face value after over a year of zero accountability for the most serious crimes against humanity.

Secretary of State Blinken already lied to Congress to cover up previous findings of Israel blocking US humanitarian aid, but he has not been held accountable.

Earlier, President Biden said that Israel invading Rafah would be a red line for US support, yet Biden continued his unconditional support for Israel after it invaded Rafah.

Now the 30-day timeline for the Biden-Harris administration’s vague warning of possible implications falls conspicuously after the November election, denying voters any opportunity to hold the administration accountable for failure to deliver.

To be honest, the Biden-Harris administration has repeatedly lied in order to give unconditional support to Israel’s genocidal war.

The administration has faced no accountability for its crimes, nor has it held Israel accountable for its crimes.

Now they are transparently trying to avoid accountability from the voters while continuing their unconditional support for genocide. 

The US citizens must demand a weapons embargo now - anything else is just empty rhetoric from habitual liars to provide political cover for genocide. 

Voters must not let them fool people into thinking the Biden-Harris administration is planning to suddenly change course after the election when their leverage as voters is gone. Voters must use the power of their vote to stop this genocide.

 

US sending troops and munitions to Israel

The United States said on Sunday it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced US anti-missile system, in a highly unusual deployment meant to bolster the country's air defenses following missile attacks by Iran.

US President Joe Biden said the move was meant "to defend Israel," which is weighing an expected retaliation against Iran after Tehran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel on October 01.

The United States has been privately urging Israel to calibrate its response to avoid triggering a broader war in the Middle East, officials say, with Biden publicly voicing his opposition to an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites and his concerns about a strike on Iran's energy infrastructure.

Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder described the deployment as part of "the broader adjustments the US military has made in recent months" to support Israel and defend US personnel from attacks by Iran and Iranian-backed groups.

But a US military deployment to Israel is rare outside of drills, given Israel's own military capabilities. US troops in recent months have aided Israel's defense from warships and fighter jets in the Middle East when it came under Iranian attack.

But they were based outside of Israel.

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, is a critical part of the US military's layered air defense systems and add to Israel's already formidable anti-missile defenses.

A THAAD battery usually requires about 100 troops to operate. It counts six truck mounted launchers, with eight interceptors on each launcher, and a powerful radar.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned earlier on Sunday that the United States was putting the lives of its troops "at risk by deploying them to operate US missile systems in Israel."

"While we have made tremendous efforts in recent days to contain an all-out war in our region, I say it clearly that we have no red lines in defending our people and interests," Araqchi posted on X.

Still, experts say Iran has sought to avoid a direct war with the United States, making deployment of U.S. forces to Israel another factor in its calculus going forward.

Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel in April. Then on October 01, Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel amid another escalation in fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Many were intercepted in flight but some penetrated missile defenses.

US officials did not say how quickly the system would be deployed to Israel.

The Pentagon said a THAAD was deployed to southern Israel for drills in 2019, the last and only time it was known to be there.

Lockheed Martin, the biggest US arms maker, builds and integrates the THAAD system, which is designed to shoot down short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Raytheon, under RTX, builds its advanced radar.

Israel, Iran, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, THAAD system,

Indonesia urges recognition of Palestine State

Indonesia has called on East Asian nations to officially recognize the state of Palestine and urged the international community to uphold international law and principles of humanity.

Speaking at the East Asia Summit in Laos, Indonesian Vice President Ma'ruf Amin warned that failure to adhere to international law could lead to the emergence of new conflicts.

“As leaders, we must take a stance and side with international law and humanity. Do not be selective in implementing international law. If this continues, I am afraid that many new conflicts will emerge,” Amin said, as reported by Antara News.

Amin also urged countries that have yet to recognize Palestine to do so immediately, stressing the importance of universal respect for international law without exceptions.

Currently, 146 countries recognize the state of Palestine, with recent additions including Spain, Norway, Ireland, and several Caribbean nations.

His remarks come amidst ongoing Israeli military actions in Gaza. Despite a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire, the conflict has claimed the lives of over 42,000 people, mostly women and children.

 

Treacherous Geopolitical Conditions

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Friday warned about potential risks in the future for the economy, citing the war in Ukraine and Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah.

“There is significant human suffering, and the outcome of these situations could have far-reaching effects on both short-term economic outcomes and more importantly on the course of history,” Dimon said in the bank’s third-quarter results release, CNBC reported.

JPMorgan Chase posted earnings showing a 2% loss in net income from the year before, down to US$12.9 billion. Revenue was up 6% to US$43.4 billion, the report showed.

CNN reported that Dimon had warned that while inflation appears to be slowing and the country has avoided recession, “several critical issues remain, including large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world.”

“While inflation is slowing and the US economy remains resilient, several critical issues remain, including large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world,” Dimon said, according to CNBC.

To Dimon’s point, CNBC reported last week that the Russian government approved a draft budget that upped defense spending by 25% from 2024.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange posts 2.3%WoW gain

Pakistan Stock Exchange began the week ended on October 11, 2024 on a strong positive note, sustained its momentum through the initial days, with the benchmark index rising to a record high of 85,669 points on Wednesday. However, concerns in the power sector amid the termination of IPP contracts, coupled with some profit-taking in the last two sessions, dragged the index to close at 85,483 points on Friday, posting an increase of 1,951 points or 2.3%WoW gain.

Overall positive sentiments were largely driven by improved liquidity in equity market, as local funds continued to shift flows from fixed-income assets due to declining interest rates.

Investors’ optimism was further bolstered by the visit of a Saudi delegation, which resulted in the signing of 27MoU’s worth US$2.2 billion, and discussions surrounding the Reko-Diq stake sell.

The GoP finally terminated Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) with five Independent Power Producers (IPPs) during the week, with discussions regarding 17 more IPPs lined up for future negotiations to shift from Take-or-pay model to Take-and-pay.

On the macroeconomic front, workers' remittances inflow remained robust in September 2024, totaling US$2.85 billion or 29%YoY increase.

While the trade deficit for the month was reported at US$1.78 billion, current account is expected to remain stable, with a potential surplus for the period.

Moreover, in efforts to address the tax gap from the 1QFY25 deficit, GoP communicated likely tax hikes to the IMF, particularly on direct imports (mainly machinery) and advanced import taxes.

Furthermore, a tax on agriculture is expected to be implemented from July 2025, according to the Finance Minister.

Amid the positive momentum, market participation also surged by 51.3%WoW, with average daily traded volume rising to 518 million shares, from 342 million shares in the earlier week.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$106 million WoW to US$10.8 billion as of October 04, 2024, a 2.5-year high.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Public debt in August 2024 surged to PKR70.4 trillion, 2) Task force to discuss mechanism for 35% gas sale to private firms, 3) Rebasing of electricity tariffs likely from January 01, 2025, and 4) Car sales surged by 24%YoY in September 2024.

Transport, Modarabas, and Woollen were amongst the top performing sectors while the laggards included: Power Generation & Distribution, Vanaspati & Allied industries, and Paper & board.

Major selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$18.9 million. Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$22.6 million

Top performing scrips of the week were: PTC, PSO, ATLH, LCI, and PPL, while top laggards included: HUBC, KOSM, NCPL, YOUW, and LUCK.

Going forward, the market is expected to remain positive, supported by declining interest rates, likely to continue driving flows towards equity market.

Despite recent highs, market remains attractive, trading at P/E of 3.7x and a dividend yield of 12.7%.

Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities recommend focusing on sectors that stand to benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yielding stocks, which are expected to rerate as yields align with fixed-income instruments. Top picks include: OGDC, PPL, MCB, UBL, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

 

 

 

US Enabled a Middle East Bully

According to Joe Macaron, one of the collateral damages of the Gaza conflict is the US global leadership. In the past year, the Biden administration was unable or unwilling to tame an out-of-control Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has gone beyond the retaliation to the October 07 attacks on the Gaza Envelope of southern Israel.

Netanyahu compared it to Pearl Harbor and 9/11, and the Biden administration has understandably embraced that,

However, this worn-out argument has unleashed a beast that is undermining US interests and failing to secure Israel in the long run.

Netanyahu is switching from one front to the other: Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Yemen with no internal or external constraint on his actions and the disproportional killing of civilians.

The Biden administration has initially advised Israel to agree on a ceasefire in Gaza and move to the second level of targeting Hamas commanders.

Netanyahu did neither; instead, he initiated another conflict in Lebanon with a death toll exceeding 1,000 since September 23, where not more than 3% of them were Hezbollah commanders.

Netanyahu’s discourse and policies are putting the Middle East in a perpetual security competition where Israel does whatever is necessary to ensure its self-defense while maximizing its force with an ambitious agenda to change “the balance of power in the region for years.”

It was enough to watch Netanyahu’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly to detect an egomaniacal discourse that is taking both Israel and the US on a dangerous path.

This overconfidence in Netanyahu’s discourse would not have existed without the air power dominance that the US provides, the Biden administration has yet to use this leverage of military aid to constrain Netanyahu. 

The US is now perceived as complicit with Netanyahu or unable to influence a key ally.

Beyond the immediate ecstasy of killing Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, Netanyahu has no clear plan or exit strategy, neither in Gaza nor Lebanon.

The Biden administration is enabling a bully by providing the tools and protection.

The excessive use of force will not secure the long-term stability of Israel nor sustain a moral and effective US global leadership.

Iran’s strategy for a year at least has been to intimidate the US military so Washington can exercise enough pressure on Netanyahu to agree on a ceasefire in Gaza, which was the safest path for the Iranian regime to avoid a direct confrontation with Israel.

The Biden administration has conveyed a clear message to Tehran not to attack American assets on the assumption that the US is committed to Israel’s security but is not directly involved in the conflict in Gaza and beyond.

It seems Netanyahu is pulling the US into a regional conflict rather than maintaining the stance from the first Iranian attack last April when Washington acted as a global leader managing the conflict between two regional powers. The US wants Iran to stay idle as Israel goes after its proxies one after the other.

Dealing with the threats of the Iranian regime and its proxies requires a long-term strategy because mass killing would only produce a radical generation in Gaza, Lebanon, and beyond.

Guaranteeing the silence of Arab autocrats is not enough to secure a long-term resolution of the Arab conflict with Israel.

In an insightful analysis in Foreign Affairs, Richard Haas argued, “America needs a playbook for difficult friends” and that Washington should have an independent policy when it disagrees with an ally as a subtle way to show objection without damaging the relationship.

The US should claim back its leadership role in the Middle East and send a clear signal that there is daylight between American and Israeli interests and that the US commitment to Israeli security is not a blank check.

The Biden administration’s blind support for Netanyahu is unprecedented and setting a dangerous precedence.

The damage to US image and interests in the Middle East should not be underestimated, and the long-term game is the most effective one; there are no quick fixes to the threats of the Iranian regime and its proxies.