Friday 23 August 2024

Red Sea Crisis Top Concern

In the most recent poll on Seatrade Maritime News, majority of readers said that attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea was their top concern, likely to impact their business the most in the second half of 2024.

The attacks that started in late 2023 have seen a large number of vessels re-routing via the Cape of Good Hope, adding significantly to the length of voyages between Asia and Europe, the Mediterranean Sea and the Middle East.

Readers were given five options: Port congestion, Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, cybersecurity, compliance with regulations, and availability of qualified seafarers.

A majority of readers, 52%, said that Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea was their top concern.

Interestingly, diversions have in many cases proved beneficial to shipping markets but have also added to fuel costs and emissions.

For vessels that continue to transit the Red Sea the threat of attack from the Houthi continues with ships often subject to multiple attacks from both air and sea.

The second top concern among readers, some 27% was port congestion, an issue which in some cases can also be linked to the disruption caused by the Red Sea crisis.

Of the three other issues 10% put compliance with new regulations as their top concern, 6% the availability of qualified seafarers, and 5% cybersecurity.

 

PSX witnesses 27%WoW increase in trading

Pakistan Stock Exchange mostly maintained a positive momentum throughout the week ended on August 23, 2024, primarily driven by declining T-Bills yield and favorable corporate results. The benchmark index closed the week at 78,801 points, up 756 points or 1.0%WoW. Market participation surged by 27%WoW, with the average daily traded volume rising to 468 million shares from 368 million shares a week ago.

In Wednesday’s T-Bills auction, cut-off yields witnessed a significant decline, which brought the 3-month yield down to 17.49%, indicating market expectations of a rate cut exceeding 100bps in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for September 12, 2024. These expectations of rate cut led to the rerating of high dividend yielding stocks, notably FFC and UBL.

Additionally, NBP stood third in terms of index points contribution, driven by expectations of lower-than-expected provisioning related to pension case in its upcoming financial results.

Pharmaceutical sector also performed well, buoyed by better than anticipated financial results by the players, supported by the deregulation of non-essential drugs.

On the macro front, the anticipated timeline for IMF Executive Board approval was pushed to September from the previous August due to unmet debt rollover requirements.

The Finance Minister remains optimistic about securing Board’s approval by next month. The current account remains in control, reporting deficit of mere US$162 million for July 24, big thanks to remittances.

PKR largely remained stable, closing the week at PKR278.50/US$.

Major news flows during the week included: 1) July FDI inflow in July was up 64%YoY to US$136.3 million, 2) LSM sector in FY24 grew 0.92%YoY, 3) RDA attracted US$161 million in first month of the current financial year, and 4) Banking sector deposits increased 19% to PKR30.6 trillion in July 2024.

Woollen, Jute, and Leather and Tanneries were amongst the top performing sectors, while Tobacco, Automobile assembler, and Textile weaving were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Insurance companies with a net sell of US$6.3 million. Mutual, Banks and Companies absorbed most of the selling.

Top performing scrips of the week were: NBP, PGLC, SRVI, HINOON, and BNWM, while top laggards included: YOUW, CEPB, SML, ISL, KTML.

Looking ahead, market is expected to continue its positive momentum due to August 2024 lower inflation reading, upcoming MPC outcome and positive development on the IMF negotiations.

AKD Securities opines that sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms would remain in the limelight. Additionally, with declining fixed income yields, high dividend-yielding stocks are expected to remain in focus.

Germany: NATO air base on high security alert

A major NATO air base in Germany is maintaining a high security alert on Friday, according to a military spokesman.

“At the moment we are still at alert state Charlie,” Donny Demmers, a spokesman for NATO Airbase Geilenkirchen said, noting that the security situation is being closely monitored.

Security alert “Charlie” is implemented at NATO bases when there is an incident or intelligence suggests a likely terrorist action or targeting of personnel or facilities.

The airbase heightened its security level on Thursday based on intelligence indicating a potential threat.

“All non-mission essential personnel have been sent home as a precautionary measure. The safety of our staff is a top priority. Our critical operations will continue as planned,” Demmers said.

The Geilenkirchen base, near the western city of Aachen, houses NATO’s AWACS surveillance aircraft, which provide air and sea surveillance and serve as a flying command center in combat operations.

In recent years, NATO AWACS aircraft have conducted hundreds of flights over Eastern Europe to monitor Russian military activity near the alliance’s borders.

Thursday 22 August 2024

USS Abraham Lincoln arrives in Middle East

The USS Abraham Lincoln strike group has arrived in the Middle East following a recent order from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, according to a statement issued by US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Wednesday.

"The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), equipped with F-35C and F/A-18 Block III fighters, has entered the US Central Command (USCENTCOM) area of responsibility,” CENTCOM announced on X.

The flagship of Carrier Strike Group 3, the USS Abraham Lincoln, is accompanied by Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 21 and Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 9.

This deployment follows the Pentagon's earlier decision to bolster military assets in the Middle East in anticipation of potential retaliation by Iran against Israel.

Secretary Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to accelerate its transit to the Central Command area, adding to the existing capabilities provided by the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group. The deployment also includes the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) guided missile submarine.

These moves come in response to escalating tensions in the region, particularly following the assassination of Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 and the Israeli airstrike that killed senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30.

Both Hamas and Iran have accused Israel of these actions, though Israel has not confirmed its involvement. Iran has vowed "harsh punishment" in retaliation for the killing of Haniyeh on its soil.

The escalation is part of a broader context of ongoing conflict, with Israel's offensive against the Gaza Strip resulting in the deaths of over 40,170 Palestinians since October 07, 2023.

Wednesday 21 August 2024

Deteriorating Israel-Turkey Relations

Middle East Institute has scheduled an event titled Israel-Turkey Relations: How Can the Negative Momentum Be Reversed?

Our reply is simple, “There is pressure of Turkey to sever its diplomatic relations with Israel after the genocide of more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children in Gaza enclave”.

We also suggest our readers to register to listen and participate the live debate and make up their opinions. Please remember that at present the United States and European countries are working on “Abraham Accords II”, after Abraham Accords lost it value.

During the discussion the participants will make effort to find replies to various questions that include:

Can Turkey-Israel ties survive the current crisis?

What would it take to turn the trajectory of relations around?

Who could potentially drive positive change on both sides?

As the bargain hunter, the Middle East Institute has invited many to a virtual panel discussion featuring prominent Israeli, Turkish, and American experts who will seek to answer these and other questions related to the future of Turkey-Israel relations.

The harsh reality is that Turkey-Israel relations have gone through many ups and downs over the past 75 years but never touched the present low level. The current bilateral crisis may be the most serious yet. Following a period of positive momentum, which peaked in September 2023, relations have deteriorated since the beginning of the war in Gaza.

The institute believes that the harsh political rhetoric, limits on direct trade, and a halt to people-to-people exchanges have all taken a toll.

It has a strange rationale that despite these growing challenges, the two countries still share many strategic interests; while non-governmental players and key business sectors — which often do not share their national leaderships’ ideologies or value systems — continue to seek ways to bilaterally engage.

 

 



 

China: Outage of Microsoft Office Alternative

According to South China Morning Post, WPS Office, a suit of cloud-based office software sold by Chinese developer Kingsoft as an alternative to Microsoft Office, was down for hours on Wednesday, disrupting the operations of companies nationwide.

Social media reports of the outage began surfacing in the morning, as users took to the internet to complain about difficulties opening, syncing and uploading WPS documents. Others said they experienced network latency when working on files. The topic #WPSCollapse became the fifth trending term on microblogging site Weibo.

At 3.33pm, Kingsoft announced on its Weibo account that WPS service had “resumed after emergency repairs by engineers”, without elaborating on the scope and reason for the breakdown. To placate users, the company is offering everyone a free 15-day membership, to be claimed on Thursday.

The outage is the second one in China this week that involved a major online service. On Monday, NetEase Cloud Music, a music-streaming platform run by video gaming giant NetEase, experienced a widespread service failure that lasted over two hours. In the aftermath, the company gave users a free seven-day subscription.

WPS Office claims a more than 90% in mainland China’s market for mobile terminals. It is widely used in key sectors such as government departments, financial institutions and telecommunications network operators.

As of June, WPS had 271 million monthly active users (MAUs) on desktop and 328 million MAUs on smartphones, according to Kingsoft’s financial disclosure.

For general users on the mainland, WPS has long been seen as a cheaper alternative to Microsoft Office, although the commercial launch of the first WPS word processor in 1989 predated Microsoft’s set-up of a China office in 1992.

Today, the WPS website still markets its products as being “highly compatible” with Microsoft Word, Excel and PowerPoint.

However, WPS has previously been accused of censoring private user documents. In 2022, a Chinese novelist said WPS locked her out of her own work, with the software warning her that “the file may contain sensitive content”.

At the time, WPS said it “never censors, locks or deletes users’ local files”, but added that it “is obliged to review all content distributed through its platform” in accordance with Chinese laws.

 

China: Largest in maritime trade

Judging by the cargo flowing through Chinese maritime ports, the world’s export king still reigns despite efforts by the United States and Europe to diversify their trading relations.

That’s among the takeaways in the One Hundred Ports 2024 report this week from Lloyd’s List. China’s share of container volumes at the biggest 100 seaports globally rose to 41.3% last year, from 40.2% a year earlier, ten years ago the figure stood at 36.6%.

In a distant second place was the rest of Asia, which as a region had a 26.6% share, North America came in with 7.6% and Europe with 7.3%.

Linton Nightingale, deputy editor with Lloyd’s List, said China’s position as the Factory to the World “shows little sign of diminishing anytime soon.”

“Yes, shippers and manufacturers are looking to other countries to source goods in a bid to diversify supply chains — a trend that has accelerated off the back of the pandemic which caused a rethink on Chinese reliance,” he said. “But as our data shows, the world continues to rely heavily on its exports.”

Other key points from the report:

Of the world’s top 10 ports, measured by annual container throughput, seven are in China

The steepest climber on the list was China’s Jiaxing, which jumped 17 places to 58th

Rotterdam, a top-10 finisher in last year’s ranking, fell to 12th

Dubai climbed two spots to No. 9

The two biggest US ports each slipped two places — Los Angeles to No. 18 and Long Beach to 21st

In a world where trade is a key battlefield for opposing economic powers, the reason why rankings matter goes beyond bragging rights. Ports are on the front lines of three major transformations: protectionism, digitization and de-carbonization.

As a result, they’re neglected no more and stand to benefit from more than US$200 billion in investments annually over the next decade, according estimates reported in ‘Bloomberg’s Big Take’. The story zooms in on eight of the world’s most dynamic ports, each trying to adapt to new geopolitical and business realities.

“Trade flows are changing and are growing more complex as shippers redirect cargoes to skirt mounting geopolitical tensions,” Nightingale said.

In China’s case, “the trade war with US is the most disruptive,” he said. “However, Chinese goods are still entering the US and often via other emerging economies, whether Mexico, Vietnam or India, to circumvent tariffs.”

Those alternative routes are among the reasons that China is withstanding tariffs, export controls and other measures wielded by the US and Europe, and may continue to do so as it expands into more advanced manufacturing.

According to a new research report from Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, “China is largely undiminished as an industrial and manufacturing powerhouse.”

“Subsidies appear to be fueling a shift away from products that helped create the Chinese miracle of the 1990s and 2000s, like textiles and toys, into higher value-added products like computers and electric vehicles, driven by domestic Chinese firms,” Lazard’s report said.

“Geopolitical tension and economic struggles must therefore be weighed against the reality that China is still the largest global exporter of goods and may succeed in its pivot to more high-tech products.”