US aircraft carrier sails into Oslo

The world's largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, sailed into Oslo on Wednesday, a first for such a US ship, in a show of NATO force at a time of heightened tension between NATO and Russia over the war in Ukraine.

The ship and its crew will conduct training exercises with the Norwegian armed forces along the country's coast in the coming days, the Norwegian military said.

"This visit is an important signal of the close bilateral relationship between the US and Norway and a signal of the credibility of collective defence and deterrence," said Jonny Karlsen, a spokesperson for the Norwegian Joint Headquarters, the operational command centre of the military.

At one spot on the Oslo fjord, dozens of people of all ages gathered on the shore to observe the vessel as it cruised by, taking pictures and videos.

Norwegian media reported the aircraft carrier would sail north of the Arctic Circle. Karlsen declined to comment on the reports.

The Russian embassy in Oslo condemned the aircraft carrier's Oslo visit.

"There are no questions in the (Arctic) north that require a military solution, nor topics where outside intervention is needed," the embassy said in a Facebook post.

"Considering that it is admitted in Oslo that Russia poses no direct military threat to Norway, such demonstrations of power appear illogical and harmful."

NATO member Norway shares a border with Russia in the Arctic and last year became Europe's largest gas supplier after a drop in Russian gas flows.

The Norwegian military and NATO allies have been patrolling around offshore oil and gas platforms since the autumn, following explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

 

 

Iran hosts Asian Clearing Union summit

The 51st Asian Clearing Union (ACU) summit, mainly focusing on de-dollarization, kicked off on Tuesday at the Central Bank of Iran (CBI).

On the first day of the two-day event, expert committees from the delegations attending the summit held meetings to discuss preliminary issues.

The summit is attended by the governors of the central banks of the ACU member countries in addition to Russia.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina arrived in Tehran on Monday to attend the event.

In the 51st ACU summit, the members are set to discuss various issues including the amendment of the Union's statutes in order to facilitate the acceptance of new members, and determining the new currency basket of the member countries in order to settle exchanges without the need for euro or the dollar.

Exploring the feasibility of using digital currencies of central banks for cross-border payments and the unveiling of the interbank messaging network of the member states of the Union are also among the major topics on the summit’s agendas.

Asian Clearing Union is a payment arrangement whereby the participants settle payments for intra-regional transactions among the participating central banks on a net multilateral basis.

The main objectives of the clearing union are to facilitate payments among member countries for eligible transactions, thereby economizing on the use of foreign exchange reserves and transfer costs, as well as promoting trade and banking relations among the participating countries. 

Currently, the members of ACU are the central banks of Iran, India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar.

The central banking authorities of member countries have issued detailed instructions and modalities for channeling monetary transactions through the ACU. Membership in the ACU is open to central banks located in the geographical area of ESCAP and non-ESCAP.

 

South Africa faces threat of becoming a failed state

South Africa could become a failed state but has yet to reach that point, a senior official of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has said. The admission by ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula comes as South Africa experiences power cuts, known as load-shedding, of up to 10 hours a day.

“This load-shedding has just made a mess of our country,” he told the BBC’s HARDtalk program.

The power cuts have worsened South Africa’s economic crisis.

The country is also battling high levels of corruption, all of which has damaged confidence in the ANC government.

“If certain things are not resolved, we will become a failed state, but we are not journeying towards that direction,” Mbalula said in an exclusive interview with BBC HARDtalk’s Stephen Sackur.

“South Africa is undergoing challenges like many other countries but I think to put it into the category of a failed state is an exaggeration,” he added.

While external forces such as global economics, the impact of COVID and the war in Ukraine had all played a role in battering South Africa’s economy, blame also lay partly with “some of our own weaknesses in terms of managing the economy well”, Mbalula acknowledged.

South Africa has an official unemployment rate of about 33%, one of the highest in the world. One in two young South Africans is unemployed and 60% are living under the poverty line.

Yet Mbalula maintained the country was “recovering well” and defended the ANC’s economic record. The party took power in 1994, following the end of the racist system of apartheid.

“We have been able to cushion our people from the worst,” he said, after a legacy of “300 years of deprivation and a mismanaged country and economy”. But he admitted the power crisis was the ANC government’s “Achilles heel”.

According to South Africa’s central bank, it is costing the country at least 2% of gross domestic product (GDP). “We can’t afford that,” Mbalula said.

With elections due next year, the continued blackouts could have seismic political consequences for the ruling party. “It will affect the fortunes of the ANC to receive just an outright majority... if it is not dealt with decisively,” he said.

South Africa’s state-owned power utility Eskom has $26 billion of debt, old infrastructure, and power stations that do not work properly.

It has led to South Africa’s worst-ever power crisis, and Eskom has warned that the situation could worsen in the winter months of July and August.

Iran appoints Enayati new ambassador to Saudi Arabia

Iran has appointed Alireza Enayati, Director General of the Gulf Affairs Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as the new ambassador to Saudi Arabia, according to the Iranian media.

The Iranian semi-official news agency Fars and Iran judiciary’s news agency Mizan published the report about Enayati’s appointment as Saudi envoy. However, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is yet to confirm or comment over the media report about Enayati’s new assignment.

Enayati had served earlier as Tehran’s ambassador to Kuwait from 2014 to 2019. He previously served as assistant foreign minister of the country.

Enayati, a veteran diplomat who has extensive experience in Gulf affairs, was part of the delegation represented Iran in the rounds of talks with Saudi Arabia held in Iraq and China, to facilitate the resumption of diplomatic relations.

Saudi Arabia and Iran signed on March 10, 2023 a historic agreement, brokered by China, to re-establish diplomatic relations after a hiatus of seven years of severed ties at the end of tri-partite talks held in Beijing.

Under the historic deal, the two countries agreed to reopen embassies and consulates in each countries and implement security and economic cooperation agreements that were signed over 20 years ago. Saudi Arabia severed ties with Iran in 2016 following an attack by Iranian pro-regime protesters on its embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad.

The news of Enayati’s appointment came a few hours after the Iranian media denied the reports about appointment of Ali Shamkhani as new ambassador to Saudi Arabia, following his dismissal from the post of secretary general of the Supreme National Security Council.

The Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) had reported earlier last month that Enayati was one of the candidates, being considered for the post of Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia. It is noteworthy that an Iranian technical delegation visited Saudi Arabia on April 12, in preparation for completing the procedures for the reopening of Tehran’s embassy in Riyadh, and this was about a week after a high-level ministerial meeting.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian met in Beijing in their first official meeting between the two countries’ top diplomatic officials in more than seven years. Ahmadian said then that the announcement about appointment of the new Iranian ambassador to Saudi Arabia will be made in the near future.

Earlier this month, Abdollahian said that Saudi Arabia had introduced its new envoy to Tehran and that Iran would soon reciprocate by introducing its new envoy to Riyadh.

Iranian non-oil export to Pakistan up 41%

The value of Iranian non-oil export to Pakistan increased by 41% in the first month of the current Iranian calendar year, as compared to the first month of the earlier year, the spokesman of Trade Development Committee of the Iranian House of Industry, Mining, and Trade announced.

Ruhollah Latifi said that importing non-oil commodities worth US$116 million, Pakistan was Iran’s fourth export destination in the month under review.

As previously announced by the official, the value of Iranian non-oil export to Pakistan rose 18% in the Iranian calendar year 1401.

Latifi said that importing non-oil goods worth US$1.488 billion from Iran, Pakistan was the fifth top export destination of the Islamic Republic in the previous year.

Iran imported non-oil commodities valued at US$842 million from Pakistan in the past year, which was 170% higher than the figure of the preceding year, the official stated, adding that Pakistan was Iran’s fourth top source of import in the previous year.

On April 30, Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Mohammad-Ali Hosseini and Pakistani Finance Minister Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar discussed the ways for increasing trade between the two countries in a meeting in Islamabad.

Expressing their satisfaction that the trade between the two countries exceeded US$2 billion, the two sides emphasized the need to take more effective steps to strengthen economic cooperation and help expand trade relations.

During the meeting, the Pakistani minister said that Pakistan attaches great importance to its relations with the friendly and brotherly country of Iran.

Appreciating the efforts of the Iranian ambassador during his diplomatic mission in Pakistan in order to strengthen the brotherly relations between the two neighboring countries, Senator Ishaq Dar praised the measures taken especially in the commercial and economic fields.

Expressing their satisfaction with the value of trade between Iran and Pakistan, which has exceeded two billion dollars, the two sides emphasized the need to identify new ways to help increase trade and develop economic cooperation.

Emphasizing the country's economic outlook, Pakistan's finance minister expressed confidence that despite economic challenges, Pakistan is on the path of progress and development.

Iranian ambassador to Pakistan for his part, appreciated the cooperation and support of the Pakistani government for the development of bilateral relations in various fields, and stated that the potential capacities of Iran and Pakistan are the main factor for the expansion of joint cooperation.

He added that bilateral trade between Iran and Pakistan has now reached US$2.4 billion, but it is not compatible with the good political and people relations of the two neighbors and more efforts should be made to support the business community of the two countries.

Back in January 2023, Iran and Pakistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to facilitate bilateral trade between the two countries.

The MoU was signed by the former Head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) Alireza Peyman-Pak and Head of the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) Muhammad Zubair Motiwala.

Based on the MoU, which was signed on the sidelines of Iran’s Exclusive Exhibition in Karachi, the parties pledged to exchange business information, support each other’s private sectors, and provide the conditions and context for the presence of their trade delegations in the other country.

It was also agreed that both sides would take all the necessary measures to facilitate holding exhibitions in the opposite country, whenever required.

Speaking in the signing ceremony, Peyman-Pak said that signing this MoU was indicative of the two sides’ determination for removing the obstacles in the way of bilateral trade and prepare the ground for the businesspersons of both sides to bolster cooperation.

He considered the holding of exclusive exhibitions, exchanging trade delegations and investment in joint production units as positive steps for knowing the capacities and needs of the two countries and expressed hope that such events would continue.

The TPO head further mentioned some obstacles and infrastructural problems that are hindering the two countries' mutual trade, including lack of banking relations, problems related to sea transportation and logistics, and tariff-related issues, saying that the Iranian government is willing to resolve such problems in collaboration with the Pakistani government.

Motiwala, for his part, said that the signed MoU is regarded as a major step to enhance bilateral trade to reach the target of US$5 billion annually.

 

Who should be held responsible for unabated smuggling of Iranian oil products into Pakistan?

In my earlier blogs I had raised concerns about influx of huge quantities of Iranian oil products into Pakistan. Lately, the oil marketing companies have accused Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) for the unabated influx of Iranian products into Pakistan.

The overwhelming perception is that being the regulatory authority entrusted with overseeing the petroleum sector, it is the responsibility of OGRA to take a proactive stance against the smuggling of Iranian petroleum products.

It is also being said that failure of OGRA to control this menace not only undermines the integrity of the regulatory, but also jeopardizes the national economy.

OMCs working under the legal ambient are already operating on a very thin margin. The smuggling of

Iranian products add to their miseries and make it even harder for them to compete with the vendors of smuggled products.

According to some sector experts, “OGRA is a ‘toothless watchdog’ and its prime duty has been to facilitate the government by raising prices of the petroleum products. It has failed in protecting the interest of consumers.” They add neither the Authority has the mandate nor the resources to curb the smuggling.”

OMCs have the right to ask the Government of Pakistan to take immediate and stringent measures to curb the smuggling of Iranian diesel/petrol.

These include strengthening border controls, enhancing coordination among the law enforcement agencies, and implementing robust monitoring mechanisms.

According to some analysts till recently the smuggled products were sold in Baluchistan Sindh, but now Punjab and even KPK are flooded with Iranian Petroleum products.

 

Iran: New Face of National Security

After ten years, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Shamkhani was replaced with Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a veteran Islamic Revolution Guards Corps commander who is set to transform the security body.

Rumors surrounding Shamkhani’s departure first came to the surface in January this year, when one of his close associates was put to death over espionage for the MI6. Nevertheless, Shamkhani remained in his post and continued to make the headlines by orchestrating a thaw in Iran-Saudi relations. Over the course of his tenure as a top security official, Shamkhani coordinated a lot of national security decisions ranging from nuclear talks to internal developments.

He is now being replaced with a hard-nosed IRGC general whose career within the IRGC is distinguished by strategizing and strategic planning. Ali Akbar Ahmadian is a quiet, cagey and taciturn general whose actions speak louder than words.

A dentist-turned-general, Ahmadian served in various positions in the IRGC and rose through the ranks to become the mastermind of many IRGC initiatives and policies. His entire career in the IRGC is characterized by leadership and strategic planning. The heady days of his youth coincided with the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, which left a formative impact on his career as a navy admiral. During the war, he participated in many operations, including at sea. In some cases, he personally played a role in some maritime retaliatory operations, an experience that he would use to develop strategies for reciprocal operations in the IRGC Navy.

After the war, he was appointed as the deputy commander of the IRGC Navy. In this position, he theorized the maritime experience of the war in countering the aggressions of the US. In a sense, he is seen as the main architect of the IRGC Navy.

Also, he is one of the masterminds who developed the asymmetric warfare doctrine, which he put into practice when he later became the chief commander of the IRGC Navy.

In addition, Ahmadian reshuffled the IRGC during this later tenure as the chief of the force’s joint staff. In this position, he put the IRGC’s house in order administratively, something that earned him the approbation of Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. Five years later, the entire IRGC entered a new administrative stage under the supervision of Ahmadian.

At the same time, Ahmadian was appointed as the commander of the IRGC’s Imam Hossein University, which played a great role in providing the force with the qualified cadets.

The new security chief has obtained a PhD degree in strategic management from the National Defense University. In September last year, Ayatollah Khamenei appointed him as a member of the Expediency Council.

Ahmadian is taking up the reins of Iran’s national security at a time when the country is navigating through sensitive issues at home and abroad. These issues range from Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, and Saudi Arabia to the now defunct 2015 Iran deal, which is formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Shamkhani handled some of these issues. He played a key role in paving the way for Tehran and Riyadh to sign a Chinese-brokered deal in Beijing on March 10 this year. The deal restored the Iran-Saudi diplomatic relations after seven years.

Shamkhani has held the position since September 2013. Since then, he has been overseeing major cases ranging from the nuclear talks to regional negotiations with Iran’s Arab neighbors.

In his recent weeks at the SNSC, Shamkhani highlighted the shift in the world order from unipolar to multipolar.

“We are now at a critically historical juncture, and a change in the world order is accordingly of paramount importance. The new world order and mechanisms to approach it would prompt us to review our macro policies,” he underlined.

The comments were delivered by Shamkhani in Tehran at the “New World Order Geometry” conference’s closing ceremony, which was held earlier in May 2023.

He stated that the opportunities and challenges of the new world order rely on how nations behave and prepare for such changes.

Shamkhani also remarked that the new world order may either present big and bright chances or pose threats and dangers.

“We must prepare ourselves and increase our resilience for global transformations,” he noted.

Shamkhani also emphasized the need of preparing for the conditions brought about by the new world order and the changes that follow, adding that being prepared for such developments will allow one to make the most of the new world order.