Why Trump Refuses to Accept Failure in Iran

Once again, Iran has moved to the center of global headlines, accompanied by renewed threats from US President Donald Trump and fresh speculation about regime change. The language may sound forceful, but the strategic reality is far less dramatic. Nearly five decades after the 1979 revolution, the world’s most powerful country has failed to dismantle Iran’s clerical system. This is not a matter of opinion; it is a matter of record. What remains puzzling is Washington’s persistent refusal to accept this failure.

Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the United States has employed every conceivable pressure tactic—crippling economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, covert operations, cyber warfare and sustained political hostility through regional allies. If the objective was to topple the “Mullah regime,” the outcome is self-evident. The system remains intact, resilient and, in some respects, more consolidated than before.

Ironically, sanctions—long projected as a non-military means of forcing political change—have produced results opposite to those promised. Instead of empowering reformist forces, they have weakened Iran’s middle class, historically the most potent driver of political evolution. At the same time, state-linked institutions, particularly those associated with security and defence, have expanded their influence over the economy. External pressure has also enabled the ruling establishment to frame dissent as foreign-sponsored, thereby justifying tighter internal control.

Washington’s reluctance to admit strategic failure is understandable, though not defensible. Acknowledging defeat would challenge the credibility of sanctions as a global policy tool and expose the limits of American coercive power. Yet denial comes at a heavy cost. Persisting with a failed approach deepens instability, prolongs economic suffering and increases the risk of miscalculation—without delivering political transformation.

Even more alarming is the absence of any credible post-clerical roadmap. History offers sobering lessons. Iraq, Libya and Syria demonstrate what happens when regimes are dismantled without a viable alternative governance structure. Iran’s opposition remains fragmented—divided ideologically, geographically and socially, with much of its leadership disconnected from realities on the ground. There is no unified transitional plan, no agreed security framework and no consensus on state reconstruction.

In this context, calls to arm “rebels” or encourage violent uprising are deeply troubling. The militarization of dissent has repeatedly produced chaos rather than peace. From Syria to Libya, weapons fractured societies, empowered militias and destroyed state institutions. Iran, with its dense urban population and complex social fabric, would be particularly vulnerable. Street violence may dismantle authority, but it cannot build a stable political order.

If peace and stability are genuinely desired, policy must shift from illusion to realism. Political change cannot be imposed through threats or sanctions alone. Gradual economic engagement, calibrated sanctions relief and regional dialogue offer more sustainable pathways. Strengthening economic normalcy and civil society may not yield immediate results, but they create conditions under which internal evolution becomes possible.

The lesson is clear. Pressure has failed, and force will fail again. Peace in Iran—and across the region—will not emerge from regime-change fantasies, but from strategies grounded in historical experience, restraint and political realism.

Gulf states warn Trump against sending help to Iranian protesters

Arab Gulf states have been warning the Trump administration not to strike Iran after Trump and White House officials stated on Tuesday that military action was more likely than not, according to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report. According to the WSJ, Iran's rival Gulf states have largely avoided addressing the protests that have spread across Iran since late December, leaving thousands dead.

Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar informed the White House that even attempting to overthrow the current Iranian regime would destabilize the global oil market and ultimately hurt the American economy, according to WSJ.

A White House official told the WSJ that Trump was unlikely to heed these warnings outright, saying, “the President listens to a host of opinions on any given issue, but ultimately makes the decision he feels is best."

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump said that "help is on its way" to Iran and asked Iranians to keep protesting against the Islamic Republic regime.

"Iranian Patriots, keep protesting - take over your institutions! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price," Trump shared on Truth Social. "I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. Help is on its way. MIGA!" he assured.

Trump's comments come as he is expected to convene senior administration officials on Tuesday to discuss possible courses of action regarding Iran. The meeting will be "significant," several US officials told The Jerusalem Post.

Around 3,000 people have been killed in Iran amid the ongoing protests, an Iranian official told The New York Times on Tuesday.

An additional source, speaking to Reuters, blamed “terrorists” for the deaths of civilians and security personnel.

In addition, UN human rights chief Volker Türk said on Tuesday that he was “horrified” by mounting violence by Iran’s security forces against peaceful protesters.

Meanwhile, sources have told The Jerusalem Post that in the western Iranian provinces of West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and Ilam, entrances to many cities have been blocked, and numerous checkpoints have been set up.

According to the sources, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces are stopping vehicles, searching them, and, in some cases, forcing citizens to unlock their mobile phones.

With the complete shutdown of the internet and telephone services, the only means of accessing news and information for many Iranians is currently satellite television, which is subject to heavy jamming in most cities. There have also been reports of security officials house-checking in cities such as Tehran and confiscating civilians’ satellite dishes.

The protests, which began on December 28, 2025 continue despite the communications restrictions and rising casualties.

 

Dishonest Western Media

I started this blog in June 2012 and the focus has remained on Geopolitics in South Asia and MENA. Over the years my conviction has got stronger that western media is dishonest. Since media is supported by conglomerates, especially ‘Military Complexes’ the focus remains on creating conflicts that can lead to proxy wars and ultimately sale of arms. Referring to two mantras: Presence of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and Iraq building weapons of mass destruction (WMD) may help the readers understand my assertion.

On Monday, 30 October 2023, I listed titles of some of my blogs and their links with a request to readers to spend a few minutes in reading these blogs and then decide does the western media publishes/ airs real stories or these are tweaked to achieve their ultimate objective of selling lethal arms to facilitate their military complexes working at the best capacity utilization.

To read details click the following links:

Ten dumbest things propagandists want people to believe

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2023/10/ten-dumbest-things-propagandists-want.html

Dishonest western media not reporting correct situation of oil market

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2022/07/dishonest-western-media-not-reporting.html

Media in United States in the grip of intelligence agents

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2019/10/media-in-united-states-in-grip-of.html

Time to mend Saudi-Iranian relationship

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2019/08/time-to-mend-saudi-iranian-relationship.html

Trump acts touching insanity

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2019/06/trump-acts-touching-insanity.html

As world faces Armageddon, west seems leaderless

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2019/06/as-world-faces-armageddon-western-world.html

Western Media is Key to Syria Deception

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2019/05/western-media-is-key-to-syria-deception.html

Syria planning another chemical attack, another hoax call by the US

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2017/06/syria-planning-another-chemical-attack.html

Anti Iran stance of western media

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2017/01/anti-iran-stance-of-western-media.html

What are the motives behind alleging Russia of hacking US election?

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2016/12/what-are-motives-behind-alleging-russia.html

The Long History of Lies about Iran

https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-long-history-of-lies-about-iran.html

 

Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting, help is on its way

US President Donald Trump urged Iranians on Tuesday to keep protesting and said help was on the way, without giving details, as Iran's clerical establishment pressed its crackdown against the biggest demonstrations in years.

"Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!... HELP IS ON ITS WAY," Trump said in a post on Truth Social, adding he had canceled all meetings with Iranian officials until the "senseless killing" of protesters stopped.

The unrest, sparked by dire economic conditions, has posed the biggest internal challenge to Iran's rulers for at least three years and has come at a time of intensifying international pressure after Israeli and US strikes last year.

An Iranian official said earlier on Tuesday that about 2,000 people had been killed in the protests, the first-time authorities have acknowledged the high death toll from more than two weeks of nationwide unrest.

The official, speaking to Reuters, said that people he called terrorists were behind the deaths of both protesters and security personnel. The official, who declined to be named, did not give a breakdown of who had been killed.

On Monday evening, Trump announced 25% import tariffs on products from any country doing business with Iran - a major oil exporter. Trump has also said more military action is among options he is weighing to punish Iran over the crackdown.

Tehran has not yet responded publicly to Trump's announcement of the tariffs, but it was swiftly criticized by China. Iran, already under heavy US sanctions, exports much of its oil to China, with Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and India among its other top trading partners.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told Al Jazeera on Monday that he had continued to communicate with US special envoy Steve Witkoff during the protests and that Tehran was studying ideas proposed by Washington.

Iranian authorities have accused the US and Israel of fomenting the unrest.

Russia condemned what it described as "subversive external interference" in Iran's internal politics, saying that US.threats of new military strikes against the country were "categorically unacceptable."

"Those who plan to use externally inspired unrest as a pretext for repeating the aggression against Iran committed in June 2025 must be aware of the disastrous consequences of such actions for the situation in the Middle East and global international security," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.

Despite the protests, which come at a particularly vulnerable moment for authorities given the scale of economic problems, and years of external pressure, there are as yet no signs of fracture in the security elite that could bring an end to the clerical system in power since a 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Britain, France, Germany and Italy all summoned Iranian ambassadors in protest over the crackdown.

"The brutal actions of the Iranian regime against its own people are shocking," the German Foreign Ministry said on social media platform X.

Item 1 of 4 Iranian demonstrators gather in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency's value, in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026. Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Underscoring international uncertainty over what comes next in Iran, which has been one of the dominant powers across the Middle East for decades, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he believed the government would fall.

"I assume that we are now witnessing the final days and weeks of this regime," he said, adding that if it had to maintain power through violence, "it is effectively at its end".

Araqchi dismissed Merz's criticisms, accusing Berlin of double standards and saying he had "obliterated any shred of credibility".

The protests began on December 28, 2025 over the fall in value of the currency and have grown into wider demonstrations and calls for the fall of the clerical establishment.

Hengaw, an Iranian Kurdish rights group, has reported that a 26-year-old man, Erfan Soltani, arrested in connection with protests in the city of Karaj, will be executed on Wednesday. Authorities had told the family that the death sentence was final, Hengaw reported, citing a source close to the family.

"The rushed and non-transparent handling of this case has heightened concerns over the use of the death penalty as a tool to suppress public protests," Hengaw said on Monday.

Parliament member Mohammadreza Sabaghian, who represents an area in Yazd, in central Iran, said the government needed to resolve people's dissatisfaction, otherwise "the same events will occur with greater intensity".

 

 

 

Iranian Foreign Minister claims situation under control

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday that the situation in Iran is “under control” with “many terrorist operatives” arrested.

He told foreign diplomats in a televised meeting that “confessions will be released soon” and said there is “substantial evidence of foreign involvement.”

He also said Iran is ready to negotiate with the US based on “mutual respect and interests.”

“As I have said repeatedly, we are also ready for negotiations — but fair and dignified negotiations, from an equal position, with mutual respect and based on mutual interests,” Araghchi said.

The foreign minister’s statements came after US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Iran had “called to negotiate,” as his administration weighs potential military options for intervention against Tehran following the demonstrations.

The Iranian government has stated its readiness to negotiate several times in previous months.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the communication channel between Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff “remains open” and “whenever necessary, messages are exchanged through that channel.” He added that “certain points and ideas have been presented by the other side,” referring to the US.

Large crowds of people have gathered in various Iranian cities in support of the country’s regime, according to video broadcast by state media.

People can be seen carrying images of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, holding up copies of the Qur'an and waving Islamic Republic flags in demonstrations in cities including Kerman and Zahedan.

Iranian state agencies had called for nationwide marches on Monday in support of the regime which has faced down more than two weeks of growing protests fueled by spiraling anger over the economy, authoritarian rule and a deadly crackdown on demonstrators.

Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization said all flights are “operating normally and without problems” and airport services are fully functioning.

Majid Akhavan, spokesman for the organization, said travelers concerned about the status of flights because of recent internet-related issues “can obtain up-to-date information directly from airport sources”, the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported.

Iran's president said Sunday that his government is determined to address Iran’s economic problems amid ongoing protests in several parts of the country.

Iran’s “enemies are seeking to sow chaos and instability” following the country’s 12-day war last June with Israel, Masoud Pezeshkian told the state television.

His remarks were the first since protests that began last month over worsening economic conditions and the record depreciation of the national currency, the rial, turned violent last week.

Pezeshkian condemned recent attacks on public places, including mosques, in Tehran and other Iranian cities, blaming the US and Israel for the violence.

There are no official casualty figures, but some NGOs outside Iran estimate the death toll at 116, including both security forces and protesters, with over 1,000 injured.

Iranian officials have accused Washington and Tel Aviv of backing the increasingly violent protests, particularly in Tehran, where government buildings, banks, buses, and mosques have been set ablaze by armed protesters in recent days.

Internet connectivity has also been suspended across the country.

Pezeshkian accused the US and Israel of “training certain groups” inside and outside the country and bringing “terrorists from abroad” to set mosques, markets, and public places on fire.

“They have killed some with weapons, burned others, and beheaded some. Truly, these crimes are beyond our people’s nature. These are not our people. They do not belong to this country. If someone protests for this country, we listen and address their concerns,” he said.

The Iranian president said his government admits to “shortcomings and problems” and is working hard to alleviate the people’s concerns, especially regarding the economy.

“Where in the world are such protests and behaviors accepted as protests? If this happened in the US, would Americans allow it? Would Europeans allow it? If someone attacked a military base or city center, would they say, ‘Go ahead and loot it’,” he said.

He insisted that those attacking public property are not protesters, but rioters, adding that the government is willing to meet with and listen to those who have legitimate concerns.

Pezeshkian said the US and Israel tried to bring Iranians “to their knees” during the 12-day war in June but failed, and now seek to do the same through “riots.”

“We will build this country with the people’s help and stand firmly against the external conspiracies and riots, with the help of producers and merchants. We will stop them with power,” he said, offering condolences to those who have died in the ongoing protests.

Before the protests turned violent on Thursday night, US President Trump tweeted that the US would “come to the rescue” of Iranian protesters if the government used lethal force against them.

His remarks drew sharp criticism from top Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, security chief Ali Larijani, and Foreign Minister Araghchi.

Pezeshkian accused the US and Israel of instigating Iranian youth.

“The same people who destroyed this country and killed our youth and children now instruct these rioters to destroy more.”

He reassured the public that his government will work to solve their problems and urged families “not to let their youth mix with rioters and terrorists who kill and behead.”

“Protest if you must; we will listen and solve your concerns. Let us work together to solve problems. But worsening the country’s economic situation through chaos serves no one,” he said.

Courtesy: Saudi Gazette

 

Iran: Don’t Impose Another Persian Dictator

As Iran edges closer to possible collapse amid renewed nationwide protests – particularly in Awdanan, Malekshahi (Ilam), Kirmashan, and Luristan in Eastern Kurdistan – international conversations are turning to what might replace Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Western powers – especially the United States and Europe – fear a power vacuum reminiscent of post-Saddam Iraq or post-occupation Afghanistan. But in their rush to prevent chaos, some think tanks and mainstream media risk endorsing another failed model - a centralized, Persian-centered state structure under a new name that has already proven repressive and unsustainable.

Since 1979, Iran has been governed through a Perso-Shi’ite ideological system. But the marginalization of non-Persian nations within its borders predates the Islamic Republic. The 1935 renaming of “Persia” to “Iran” was more than cosmetic – it was an assertion of a false, homogenized national identity. That change marked the beginning of a modern imperial strategy aimed at erasing the country’s multinational reality under the illusion of unity. It initiated a long-standing policy of suppression, executions, and forced assimilation, denying national, ethnic, and religious groups their cultural and political rights.

From the Pahlavi monarchy to the current theocracy, Persians have monopolized power, the military, and economic institutions while suppressing minorities seeking recognition, language rights, and political autonomy. Farsi was imposed as the sole official language. Shi’a Islam became the ideological foundation of the state. National and ethnic groups – including Kurds, Baluchis, Azeris, Arabs, Turkmens, Qashqais, Armenians, Gilakis, Tabaris, and Talyshis – as well as religious minorities such as Christians, Jews, and Baha’is, were excluded, persecuted, or violently repressed. The Islamic Republic did not break with Pahlavi chauvinism; it perfected it. The current regime has extended and even refined the ethno-nationalist policies of Reza Shah, and his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

The west cannot continue to treat Iran as synonymous with “Persian.” Iran is a state composed of many nations and ethnic groups, each with its own language, culture, and political will. Yet Western policymakers – along with much of the Iranian diaspora – default to a Persian-centric framework. Exiled elites often self-identify as “Persian” abroad, but when confronted with questions about Kurdish or Baloch rights, they invoke the slogan “We are all Iranian.” This is not a call for unity; it is a rhetorical sleight of hand that conceals decades of domination and cultural erasure.

Proposals to restore the monarchy through Reza Pahlavi are not solutions; these are a return to failure. During the 2022–2023 Jina uprising, Pahlavi failed to lead or inspire, particularly among non-Persian groups. Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo publicly highlighted reported ties between Pahlavi’s supporters and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, further damaging his credibility. Even at its peak, the Vekalat Midaham (“I give my mandate”) campaign barely exceeded 400,000 signatures. Though recently reactivated, it underscores his political irrelevance.

Pahlavi is not a unifying figure, but remains a symbol of exclusion. A spent force, he is irrelevant to Iran’s future and unqualified to lead.

A meaningful transition after the Islamic Republic cannot default to Persian nationalism under a new label. Doing so would merely perpetuate the very systems that fueled decades of unrest. Stability will not come from resurrecting the past. It must come from a framework grounded in decentralization and inclusion, recognizing the rights of Iran’s nations to self-determination – including territorial autonomy or independence where demanded. These rights must be part of the post-Islamic Republic roadmap and order.

The illusion of national unity has cost Iran its future. Kurdish, Baloch, Ahwazi Arab, and other movements have long advocated democratic solutions grounded in local governance, cultural rights, and international engagement. Their voices must not be sidelined again in the name of imposed “stability.”

The international community must understand a fundamental reality - Iran is not a nation-state. It is a state of many nations and ethnicities – a nations-state. What is needed now is not the restoration of monarchy, but recognition of difference. The West must not trade one dictatorship for another, nor repeat the mistake of prioritizing top-down control over justice. Stability will not come from resurrecting a failed, British-imposed, Persian-dominated system.

Despite strong nationalist movements, non-Persian peoples were historically denied any path to self-determination, as Britain prioritized the territorial integrity of Persia – later Iran – under the Anglo-Persian Treaty of August 9, 1919, to secure control over land, customs, and oil resources. That legacy of imposed unity continues to haunt the present.

Supporting a truly inclusive post-regime vision requires abandoning the myth of a unified Persian Iran and embracing self-determination, justice, and the country’s multinational reality. Only then can any future government earn legitimacy among its peoples.

The Middle East must move forward – not backward – by rejecting imposed solutions that ignore realities on the ground.

Courtesy: The Jerusalem Post

Iran: Myth of Regime Engineering

Nearly half a century after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, one uncomfortable truth remains intact- the United States has failed to toppling Iran’s clergy-dominated political system. From covert operations to overt pressure, from sanctions to sabotage, Washington’s arsenal has been vast—but its outcomes limited. This reality challenges a deeply entrenched belief in Western policymaking circles that sustained external pressure can reengineer sovereign political systems.

The US–Iran confrontation began with high drama. The failed 1980 rescue mission to free American embassy staff in Tehran was an early signal that Iran would not bend easily. Since then, the playbook has expanded—economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, cyber warfare, targeted killings, and strikes on strategic installations. Each tactic was presented as decisive; none proved so. Even with Israel’s fullest political, intelligence, and military backing, the objective of dismantling Iran’s clerical power structure remains unmet.

Washington’s current emphasis on internal unrest follows a familiar pattern. Protests in Iran—whether driven by economic hardship, social restrictions, or political frustration—are quickly framed as precursors to regime collapse. Yet history offers little evidence that externally encouraged demonstrations can dismantle a deeply entrenched ideological state. On the contrary, such pressure often consolidates power by allowing the ruling elite to externalize blame and tighten internal control.

The comparison—explicit or implied—with Venezuela is particularly flawed. The assumption that methods used against Caracas can be replicated in Tehran ignores fundamental differences. Iran is not an oil-dependent, institutionally hollow state with fractured elite consensus. It possesses ideological cohesion, parallel power structures, and decades of experience in surviving siege conditions. The belief that eliminating a leadership figure—or fueling street unrest—can unravel this system reflects strategic illusion rather than informed assessment.

That said, dismissing Iran’s internal weaknesses would be equally misleading. Economic mismanagement, corruption allegations, demographic pressure, and social discontent are real and persistent. Sanctions have undeniably deepened hardship, but domestic policy failures have magnified their impact. Iran’s ruling establishment has often responded to dissent with rigidity rather than reform, narrowing its own margin for legitimacy. These internal contradictions—not foreign intervention—pose the most credible long-term challenge to clerical dominance.

The paradox is stark - US pressure has hurt Iranian society more than it has weakened the state, while simultaneously validating the regime’s narrative of perpetual external threat. Each failed attempt at coercion reinforces Tehran’s claim that resistance, not accommodation, ensures survival.

The lesson from five decades of confrontation is neither ideological nor moral—it is strategic. Regimes are rarely dismantled from the outside, especially those forged in revolution and sustained through resistance. Iran’s future will be shaped primarily by its own political evolution, not by foreign-engineered upheaval. Any policy that ignores this reality is destined to repeat past failures—at great human and geopolitical cost.