Iranian efforts to improve relations with Afghanistan

Iran will make every effort to give fresh impetus to its interactions with Afghanistan along the border. Masoud Pezeshkian made the comment in a televised address to the people at the close of his trip to the eastern Iranian province of South Khorasan, which borders Afghanistan.

“Many of the needs could be met, and this is possible,” he explained.

He said the provincial governor has been authorized to expedite engagement with neighboring Afghanistan.

Iran’s trade volume with Afghanistan is currently described as decent by economic reports, with Tehran investing significant effort into maintaining commerce since the Afghan government was toppled in 2021. The Taliban, who were ousted by US forces in 2001 and faced a 20-year occupation, swiftly returned to power following the American withdrawal. 

Since then, the new rulers have managed to improve security, with terrorist attacks becoming less frequent. Yet, the country remains burdened by the remnants of the occupation, facing escalating poverty and unemployment.

Although trade continues, Iran has yet to officially recognize the Taliban. Tehran remains at odds with the group over a host of issues, including the withholding of Iran’s water rights from the Hirmand River, the ongoing influx of refugees, and the lack of inclusivity within the new government. Nevertheless, Iranian officials have kept their embassy in Kabul active and continue to engage in regular discussions with Taliban leadership.

Tehran has also been working to establish deeper ties between the Taliban and Afghanistan’s other neighbors, none of whom have officially recognized the group’s government. 

To this end, Iran hosted a meeting in Tehran last week involving representatives from Afghanistan’s neighboring countries and Russia. During the summit, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized the significance of stability and security, noting that Afghanistan’s integration into the region would be mutually beneficial. He described Afghanistan as possessing unique human, economic, and natural potential, historically serving as a bridge between neighboring regions.

Afghanistan’s relationship under the Taliban has been specially friction-ridden with Pakistan. The two countries engaged in a brief military conflict earlier this year; while a ceasefire is currently in effect, it is widely considered to be fragile.

 

PSX: 7 IPOs worth PKR4.3 billions issued during 2025

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed momentum in initial public offering (IPO) activity during 2025, with a total of 7 offerings recorded during the year, including two GEM Board listings and one migration. This momentum mirrors 2024, when the bourse also hosted seven IPOs, underscoring sustained capital market activity.

The total amount raised from investors through the 7 offerings (including migration) in 2025 aggregated to PKR4.3 billion as against PKR8.4 billion last year. Despite the lower quantum of funds raised, investor appetite remained robust, as all offerings were oversubscribed, reflecting strong market enthusiasm.

This sustained IPO momentum is largely a continuation of last year’s trend, driven by macroeconomic stability under the IMF programme, improving investor confidence, positive equity market sentiment, and a declining interest rate environment.

The benchmark Index surged significantly by 47.9% in PKR terms and 47.1% in US$ terms in 2025 to date, reflecting overall positive sentiment and renewed investor interest.

The average daily traded volume has also increased by 40%, reaching 797 million shares, while the daily traded value has risen by 64% to PKR36.6 billion during 2025 to date.

In 2025, new listings on the main board included Zarea Limited (ZAL), Barkat Frisian Agro Limited (BFAGRO), Image REIT (IRIET), and Pak Qatar Family Takaful (PQFTL). There was one migration of BlueEx from GEM Board to Main board while two companies were added to GEM board which are Nets International Communication (GEMNETS) and Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (GEMPACRA). To highlight, out of 4 main board listing, Topline was advisor in 2 listing in 2025.

In terms of performance, ZAL was the best-performing IPO in 2025, delivering a return of 202% in 2025TD, in which topline was the advisor.

The global IPO market has also gained momentum. According to Ernst & Young (E&Y), a total of 914 IPOs were recorded through 9M2025, raising US$110 billion, as compared to 870 IPOs that raised US$78 billion during the same period last year. The growth in IPO activity is primarily driven by larger deal sizes, supported by robust equity markets, monetary easing, and more accommodative financial conditions. Despite ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, investor sentiment continues to improve. Geopolitical risk is increasingly being viewed as part of the “new normal”—a persistent backdrop to market dynamics rather than a one-off shock.

Topline Securities expects IPO activity in 2026 to remain strong compared with the current year, supported by a healthy pipeline of offerings, improving economic conditions, and a lower interest rate environment.

In mainboard, 4 companies raised funds through IPO. These companies represented various sectors including Technology, Food & Personal Care, Real Estate Investment, and Insurance.

Zarea Limited (ZAL):

Zarea is one of leading digital technology company specializing in the commodity trading market of Pakistan. The primary purpose of the IPO is to achieve growth by increasing their customer base and improving the user interface of its online platform. For this purpose, company is raising money to meet their working capital needs, establish its own logistic fleet, upgrade it online platform etc. The company offered 62.5 million shares at strike price of PKR16.5/ share, raising PKR1,031 million in February, 2025 with an oversubscription of 1.9x.

Barkat Frisian Agro Limited (BFAGRO): 

BFAGRO is the Pakistan’s only producer of pasteurized egg products. It is a Pakistan-Dutch Joint venture between Buksh Group and Frisian Egg International B.V. which is Dutch company. Company raised funds to setup new facility in Faisalabad which will increase production capacity by 12,000 tons totaling to 29,000. This expansion will enable the company to explore new export opportunities and target new customers in the local market. The company offered 67.7 million shares at strike price of PKR18.2/ share, raising PKR1,232 million in February, 2025 with an oversubscription of 16.25x.

Image REIT (IREIT): 

Image REIT is hybrid REIT scheme having both Rental and Developmental Component managed by Sino link RMC. The principal activity of IREIT is to invest directly in real estate assets with the objective of generating sustainable income and long-term returns for investors through rental income, capital appreciation, and value creation. The principal purpose of the Issue is to raise funds to complete the construction of the Developmental Component. The company offered 92.0 million shares at a strike price of PKR10.0/ share, raising PKR921 million in September, 2025 with an oversubscription of 2.1x.

Pak Qatar Family Takaful (PQFT): 

Pak Qatar Family Takaful Limited (PQFTL) is Pakistan’s largest dedicated family takaful company which offers comprehensive Takaful and investment solutions. The company raised funds to be utilized for: 1) Expansion of Digital Footprint, 2) Strengthening Solvency and Enhancing Underwriting Capacity, and 3) Compliance with Minimum Paid-up Capital requirements. The company offered 50 million shares at strike price of PKR18.0/ share, raising PKR901 million in December, 2025 with an oversubscription of 3.2x.

 

PSX benchmark index closes at highest ever 171,960 level on Thursday

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum during the week ended on December 19, 2025. The benchmark index achieved its highest ever closing on Thursday, at 171,960 points, witnessed some profit taking on Friday, closing the week at 171,404 points, up 1,539 points or 0.91%WoW. Market participation weakened by 5.6%WoW with average daily traded volume down to 1.2 billion shares, from 1.3 billion shares in the prior week.

Investors’ optimism was boosted following the announcement of a surprise 50bps rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as against market’s anticipation of status quo. Sentiments were further boosted after current account recorded a surplus of US$100 million for November 2025.

On the macroeconomic front, Textile exports for 5MFY26 increased by 3%YoY to US$7.8 billion, whereas, Petroleum imports declined by 2%YoY to US$6.4 billion.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$1.3 billion to US$15.9 billion as of December 12, 2025 after receiving IMF’s disbursement under the EFF and RSF.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Finance Minister rules out mini budget; insists revenue gap to be met via tax compliance, 2) Pakistan and Uzbekistan agree to extend PTA, 3) Pakistan seeks oil deal with Russia, 4) SIFC prioritizes brownfield refinery upgrades, and 5) Pakistan, China advance talks on US$2.2 billion industrial complex at Port Qasim.

Jute, Real Estate Investment Trust, Commercial Banks, Close – End Mutual Fund and Engineering were amongst the top performing sectors, while Woollen, Modarabas, Synthetic & Rayon, Textile Spinning and Vanaspati & Allied Industries were amongst the laggards.

Major buying was recorded by Individuals with a net buy of US$16.7 million, while foreigners and Insurance were major sellers with net sell of US$12.7 million and US$8.2 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: RMPL, PIBTL, NBP, UBL, and DCR, while laggards included: SSGC, BNWM, PIOC, IBFL, and PGLC.

AKD Securities foresees the momentum in the benchmark index to continue given successful third tranche disbursement under the EFF & RSF, monetary easing environment, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

This outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities, at a multiple of 8.1x while offering a dividend yield of 6.5%.

The top picks of the brokerage house include: MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, ILP and INDU.

Trump Keen on Turning Gaza into His Personal Property

Nothing has been more destructive for Gaza over the past two years than the bombs dropped with unwavering Western backing. Yet nothing has been more cynical than Donald Trump’s repeated appearances promoting his so-called “peace plan” for the besieged Strip. Wrapped in the language of diplomacy, Trump’s proposal reeks not of reconciliation but of ownership—an attempt to treat Gaza as a geopolitical asset to be managed, traded, and reshaped according to American convenience.

While Trump speaks of calm and reconstruction, Israeli aggression continues almost daily, violating ceasefire understandings with impunity. Washington, far from being an honest broker, remains the principal enabler—arming, financing, and diplomatically shielding Israel while performing concern for Palestinian suffering. Trump’s rhetoric cannot conceal this contradiction. Peace cannot be brokered by those underwriting the war.

As large-scale bombing subsided, a new phase of pressure emerged. Gaza became the subject of maps, crossings, donor conferences, and discussions about “the day after.” Central to this discourse is the idea of a “peace council,” international forces, and a transitional governing arrangement imposed from outside. These proposals move slowly because they are designed not to end occupation, but to recycle Western control while avoiding a frank admission of failure.

Trump’s plan—Israeli withdrawal in exchange for Hamas’s removal, followed by an internationally supervised administration—lays bare a colonial mindset. Gaza is reduced to a problem to be solved, not a people with rights. Palestinians are expected to accept a future negotiated in Washington, as if sovereignty were a favor Trump can dispense. The voices of those who endured siege and destruction are conspicuously absent.

What drives Trump’s sudden peace enthusiasm is not compassion but damage control. After a prolonged and devastating war, Israel failed to impose its will militarily, exposing the limits of US-backed force. The myth of invincibility collapsed, and global opinion shifted sharply. Trump now seeks to repackage defeat as diplomacy, positioning himself as a peacemaker while rescuing a deeply tarnished ally.

Reconstruction, under this framework, becomes another weapon. Aid is offered conditionally, tied to disarmament and political submission. This transactional logic—treating freedom as a commodity—has failed everywhere it has been tried, from Iraq to Afghanistan.

Gazans refuse to be reduced to property or a bargaining chip. Their resistance has transformed from a marginal humanitarian case into a global symbol exposing Western hypocrisy. Trump may imagine himself redesigning the region, but Gaza stands as a reminder that peace imposed through power, money, or arrogance is not peace at all.

Venezuela: US Regime Change Obsession

The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers by the United States is not an isolated enforcement action; it is the logical extension of a failed regime-change project. Having been unable to dislodge the Maduro government through sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and political engineering, Washington has doubled down on economic warfare—this time by targeting Venezuela’s sole economic artery.

Venezuela is not a diversified economy. Oil exports generate the bulk of its foreign exchange, fund public services, and pay for essential imports. Intercepting tankers is therefore not about legal compliance; it is about choking the economy into submission. When financial strangulation is designed to produce political collapse, it crosses from diplomacy into coercion—what many rightly describe as economic terrorism.

The justification offered by Washington is familiar - sanctions are portrayed as tools to restore democracy and punish alleged wrongdoing. Yet the outcomes tell a different story. Years of sanctions have neither produced regime change nor improved governance. Instead, they have devastated living standards, disrupted fuel supplies, and weakened healthcare and food security. Political elites adapt; ordinary citizens absorb the shock.

More troubling is the international silence. The seizure of commercial shipments bound for third countries raises serious questions under international law, yet few Western capitals have voiced concern. This selective outrage exposes a deeper truth, rules-based order often bends when great power interests are involved. Actions condemned as piracy if undertaken by rivals are quietly normalized when executed by Washington.

There is also a broader pattern at play. From Iran to Venezuela, energy-producing states that resist US strategic preferences face sanctions, asset freezes, and trade blockades. The message is unmistakable - control over energy flows remains central to geopolitical power. Democracy rhetoric provides cover, but energy dominance appears to be the underlying driver.

Ironically, such pressure often entrenches the very systems it claims to oppose. Economic siege fuels nationalism, strengthens hardliners, and closes political space. It also pushes targeted states toward alternative trading networks, accelerating the fragmentation of the global economic order—an outcome that ultimately weakens US influence rather than consolidates it.

For Venezuela, continued economic suffocation offers no path to stability or reform. For the world, accepting unilateral seizures as normal practice sets a dangerous precedent. If regime change pursued through economic destruction becomes an accepted tool of statecraft, global trade itself becomes hostage to power politics.

History suggests a simple lesson: coercion may punish, but it rarely persuades.

Gold March Toward US$5,000: A New Reality

Gold’s surge in 2025 — the strongest since the 1979 oil shock — would normally invite calls for a painful correction. Prices have doubled in two years. Yet this rally is not built on speculative froth alone. It is anchored in a structural shift that could carry bullion to US$5,000 an ounce by 2026.

Spot gold touched a record US$4,381 in October, crossing milestones once thought distant. The drivers are neither exotic nor temporary - persistent US fiscal deficits, an implicitly weak-dollar posture, geopolitical fractures from Ukraine to NATO’s eastern flank, and rising unease over the Federal Reserve’s independence. In such an environment, gold is not merely a hedge — it is a statement of mistrust in paper promises.

What distinguishes this cycle is the role of central banks. For five consecutive years, they have been diversifying away from dollar assets, stepping in when investor positioning becomes stretched and prices wobble. This behavior places a firm floor under gold, resetting its trading range far higher than in previous cycles.

JP Morgan estimates that while 350 tons of quarterly demand keeps prices stable, actual buying may average 585 tons per quarter in 2026 — a telling imbalance.

Investors are following suit. Gold allocations have risen to 2.8% of total assets, up from 1.5% before 2022 — elevated, but hardly extreme given the scale of global uncertainty.

Forecasts from Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and Metals Focus converge on the same conclusion, US$5,000 gold is no longer sensational. It is increasingly plausible. The real question is not how high gold can go, but how fragile confidence in fiat currencies has become.

Why Trump Is Edging Toward a Serious Conflict with Venezuela?

US President Donald Trump has significantly escalated pressure on Venezuela and President Nicolás Maduro through sanctions, military action, and economic measures, raising concerns about a potential serious conflict. The latest flashpoint was the US seizure of a sanctioned oil tanker en route to Cuba, part of a broader campaign targeting Maduro’s government, which Washington labels illegitimate and accuses of leading a drug-trafficking network.

Trump has justified his actions on multiple fronts. Migration is a central issue, with the president frequently blaming Maduro for sending criminals, gang members, and former prisoners into the United States. While Venezuelans now number around 770,000 in the United States as of 2023, they represent less than 2 percent of the immigrant population. Most Venezuelan migrants—over 80 percent—remain in Latin America and the Caribbean. Nonetheless, the issue has gained urgency after a Supreme Court ruling led to more than 250,000 Venezuelans losing Temporary Protected Status following the program’s expiration.

Drug trafficking is another pillar of Trump’s campaign. The administration accuses the Maduro regime of facilitating narcotics flows into the US, citing this as justification for lethal strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats near Venezuela. Since September, US forces have carried out at least 22 maritime strikes, killing dozens of alleged traffickers. These actions have sparked political controversy, particularly after reports that survivors of one strike were killed. While the administration claims these operations have sharply reduced maritime drug trafficking, lawmakers note that the vessels were believed to be carrying cocaine, not fentanyl, and that Colombia remains the region’s top cocaine producer.

Economic pressure, especially targeting oil, has intensified tensions. Oil accounts for nearly 90 percent of Venezuela’s export revenues. The seized tanker reportedly carried over one million barrels of oil, and analysts warn that continued seizures could amount to a de facto naval blockade, crippling Venezuela’s economy and limiting its ability to import food, weapons, and fuel.

Finally, regime change remains an underlying concern. Trump has said Maduro’s days are “numbered” and has deployed an unprecedented US military presence in the region, though he has not ruled out negotiations. Senior officials deny seeking regime change outright, but skepticism remains over whether any agreement with Maduro could be enforced.