Sunday, 22 June 2025

US attack on Iran condemned around the world

A growing wave of international condemnation has followed the recent US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The countries across West Asia and beyond denounce the move as a dangerous violation of international law that threatens regional and global security.

The strikes, which targeted nuclear sites in Natanz and Fordow in the early hours of Sunday, were publicly confirmed by US President Donald Trump via social media.

The unprovoked attack has triggered strong reactions from both regional governments and major global powers.

In Baghdad, a spokesperson for the Iraqi government called the strikes a “serious threat to peace and stability in the region,” warning that any attack on Iran’s peaceful nuclear facilities risks triggering wider conflict in West Asia.

Pakistan issued an even stronger rebuke. The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the assault as a breach of international norms, affirming that Iran has the legitimate right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. Senator Mushahid Hussain, Chairman of Pakistan’s Senate Defense Committee, labeled the strike a “war crime” and a case of “deliberate aggression,” criticizing the dominance of Israeli lobbying interests in US foreign policy and accusing President Trump of breaking his promises not to launch new military conflicts.

Foreign Ministry of Saudi Arabia condemned the US action, calling it a clear violation of Iran’s sovereignty. Riyadh urged the international community to intensify efforts toward a peaceful resolution and warned against further escalation.

Egypt joined the growing chorus of voices, with the Foreign Ministry in Cairo describing the strike as a provocative act that could severely undermine international and regional peace. Oman also voiced its alarm, stating that the US military operation was a breach of international law and a reckless act that could ignite a broader war.

President Joseph Aoun of Lebanan echoed the concerns, warning that the targeting of Iranian nuclear infrastructure could destabilize not only the region but also global security. “The threat of escalation is real, and the world must act to prevent further deterioration,” he said.

Qatar condemned the strikes as well, calling for an immediate cessation of Israeli-American military actions against Iran and advocating for a swift return to diplomatic engagement.

In a significant development, Foreign Ministry of Russia also issued a statement “strongly condemning” the US airstrikes, calling them “a gross violation of international law, the UN Charter, and UN Security Council resolutions.” Moscow warned that such actions could trigger dangerous consequences and undermine international mechanisms for conflict resolution.

Inside Iran, the reaction has been swift and resolute. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) condemned the strikes on its facilities in Fordow and Natanz as “brutal and illegal,” emphasizing that the sites operate under full supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as part of Iran’s commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). “These are peaceful, safeguarded nuclear facilities, and this assault constitutes a direct attack on international law,” the AEOI said.

“The attack was carried out with the indifference—or possibly the complicity—of the IAEA.” Calling on the international community to reject what it termed “jungle law,” the organization said it would pursue all necessary legal and diplomatic channels to defend Iran’s rights. “Despite these sinister efforts, the AEOI assures the great Iranian nation that the country’s nuclear progress will not be halted.” Diplomatic observers have warned that failure to respond decisively to the strike risks undermining the credibility of international law and institutions.

 

 

Regime change could make Iran more confrontational

Dina Esfandiary, the Middle East lead for Bloomberg Geoeconomics, outlined in an analysis this week, why regime change (were it to occur) could lead to a more confrontational Iran. Her replies were written before President Donald Trump launched airstrikes on Iran. Still, her replies are worth reading for the readers of this blog. 

How likely is regime change in Iran at this point, and what would that entail?

Regime change won’t come at the hands of Israel’s bombs. When an external enemy attacks, there tends to be a strong rally-around-the-flag effect in Iran, not unlike other countries. This means that whatever discontent Iranians feel — and that discontent has been rising — gets pushed aside momentarily so the country can unite in the face of an external enemy. For as long as these strikes continue, and the more images of death and destruction get shared, the stronger this sentiment gets. And this is exactly what Iran’s leadership wants, because it buys them some time and breathing space. 

You’ve written that the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could lead to an even more confrontational Iran, why is that?

The Islamic Republic is no monolith. There are reformists, pragmatists and hardliners within the elites. There is also a rising cadre of young, more ideological elements within the system who believe that the Islamic Republic has lost its way, and call for a return to the tenants of the 1979 revolution. The system has been preparing for the Supreme Leader’s succession for several years now, with each faction within the political system jostling to get their preferred candidate in the winning seat. There is a chance that this young ideological cohort of officials are able to get someone in that represents their views, or that the Revolutionary Guards, who are traditionally more hardline on Iran’s foreign policy, are able to get someone in. That might make Iran more confrontational. 

If we did see regime change in Iran, what would you be watching next? Who gains, who loses, and how might markets respond?  

It’s really difficult to tell what will come next because there is no viable, organized opposition in Iran right now. There are a few figures outside the country, but they are divisive and unlikely to get much support inside the country. This means that the field will be open to those who are stronger inside. The vision of the next leader, along with what relationships that person has, inside and outside the country, will tell us a great deal about what direction they hope to take the country in. Will they be open to bringing Iran out of isolation or will they double down and harden Iran’s stance internationally? Markets are likely to panic at first, especially if the person is unknown.

Trump’s open declaration of war against Iran

President Trump announced Saturday night that the United States has bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, engaging US forces in a war that Israel launched two weeks ago. In a brief address on Saturday night, Trump warned of continued US attacks on Iran if “peace does not come quickly.” 

“This cannot continue,” he said, flanked by Vice President Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 

“There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” Trump said. 

The White House had said on Thursday that Trump would make a decision on bombing Iran within two weeks, but B-2 bombers started crossing the Pacific on Saturday afternoon. 

Trump announced the “very successful” strikes in a Truth Social post around 8.00pm EDT Saturday. In his remarks on Saturday night, the president said those facilities “have been completely and totally obliterated.”

Here are the key takeaways on the bombings:

US strikes three nuclear sites 

In his Truth Social post, Trump said “a full payload of BOMBS” was dropped on Iran’s primary nuclear enrichment plant, Fordow — a deep underground facility viewed as key to Tehran’s nuclear program — as well as on Natanz and Isfahan.

Multiple outlets reported that six “bunker buster” bombs were dropped on the Fordow facility, and that 30 tomahawk missiles were fired at Natanz and Isfahan.

Trump, in his address, said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine would give a press conference on the strikes at 800am EDT Sunday. 

Experts say the 30,000-pound bunker busters, officially known as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, could penetrate the mountain where Fordow is located, had reportedly been requested by Israel. 

In the hours before the US unleashed airstrikes, the Defense Department reportedly moved B-2 bombers, the only aircraft capable of dropping the GBU-57, from their holding base in Missouri to across the Pacific to Guam.

Iranian officials and state media have confirmed the bombings, but said the three nuclear facilities had previously been evacuated.

Lawmakers divided 

The immediate response from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle pointed to the deep divisions over whether the US should enter a new war in the Middle East.

“This is not constitutional,” Rep. Thomas Massie posted on X. 

Rep. Jim Himes struck a similar note, referencing Trump’s post announcing the attacks, which said, “Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

“According to the Constitution we are both sworn to defend, my attention to this matter comes befoe bombs fall. Full stop,” Himes wrote. 

Massie had sponsored legislation that would have required congressional approval for any strikes on Iran. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders reacted to the news during a rally in Tulsa, Okla., calling it “grossly unconstitutional” after the crowd chanted “no more war.”

Leading Republicans and at least one Democrat were supportive of the attacks. 

“The President’s decisive action prevents the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, which chants ‘Death to America,’ from obtaining the most lethal weapon on the planet. This is America First policy in action,” Speaker Mike Johnson wrote on X. 

“Good. This was the right call. The regime deserves it,” Sen. Lindsey Graham wrote on X. 

Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker, meanwhile, said Trump had made “a deliberate —and correct— decision to eliminate the existential threat posed by the Iranian regime.”

“As I’ve long maintained, this was the correct move by @POTUS . Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism and cannot have nuclear capabilities,” he wrote on X. 

Where U.S. troops are most vulnerable

Some 40,000 US service members are spread out across the Middle East at bases in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, offering Iran a broad opportunity to hit back at American citizens, equipment and interests.

In the days before the US strike on Iran, Tehran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that any American military intervention in its conflict with Israel “will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.” 

And on Saturday, a news anchor on Iranian state television declared that Trump, “started it, and we will end it,” seeming to refer to a larger conflict between Washington and Tehran. The broadcast also showed a graphic of American bases in the Middle East with the headline, “Within the fire range of Iran,” as reported by The New York Times.

Experts say Iran within hours could decide to launch a retaliatory strike on the nearby Al-Asad Air Base in Iraq or other locations closest to its borders, and within minutes of such a decision could have its missiles delivered. 

“If Iran had the ballistic missiles ready to go, those strikes could happen in under 15 minutes. Launched to target,” retired Col. Seth Krummrich, vice president at security consultancy firm Global Guardian, told The Hill on Friday. 

A former Special Forces officer in Iraq and Afghanistan, Krummrich also predicted that if the US were to use the GBU-57, “you would see an Iranian missile strike aimed at one or multiple US bases.”

Tehran last significantly targeted US troops in January 2020 after Trump, in his first term, ordered an airstrike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force.

Iran reacted swiftly, days later hammering Al-Asad and another US base in Erbil with 13 ballistic missiles in the largest such attack ever against US forces abroad. No Americans were killed in the strikes but more than 100 were later diagnosed and treated for traumatic brain injuries.

Trump jumps gun on two-week timeline 

The strikes came less than 48 hours after Trump said he would make up his mind within two weeks, suggesting there was still time for a diplomatic solution. 

“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiation that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go in the next two weeks,” Trump said in a statement read aloud by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Friday afternoon. 

The US has reportedly maintained dialogue with Iranian officials since Israel first struck Iran on June 13, but Trump had expressed growing skepticism about the chances of a deal.  

Iran has reportedly agreed to resume direct talks with the US after a meeting between European foreign ministers and Iran’s top diplomat on Friday.

This weekend saw a flurry of diplomatic activity across the Middle East.

Ambassadors from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait on Saturday met with Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to express concerns about the consequences of a US attack. 

What happens next?

It could take days for the US, Israel and IAEA to assess the damage from the US strikes, which were carried out in close coordination with the Israeli Defense Forces. 

One of the key questions will be how much the US strikes, together with over a week of Israeli attacks, have set back Tehran’s nuclear program. 

Trump said in recent days he believed Iran was on the verge of being able to build a nuclear bomb, though U.S. intelligence agencies believed it would take more than a year for Tehran to turn enriched uranium into a usable nuclear weapon. 

Israeli officials have also suggested that regime change in Iran is among the goals of their war, and that Khamenei could be a target for assassination. 

Iran’s supreme leader, believed to be hiding out in a bunker, has named three senior clerics to replace him should he die, according to The New York Times. 

On Iranian state television after the attacks, an anchor said, “Mr. Trump, you started it, and we will end it,” along with a graphic of American bases in the Middle East within Iran’s reach, according to the Times. 

Both Russia and China had condemned Israel’s war on Iran and are certain to criticize the U.S. strikes too. However, Russia has shown little interest in sending military support to Iran. 

 

Saturday, 21 June 2025

United States Bombs Iranian Nuclear Facilities

According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump on Saturday said that a "very successful attack" on three nuclear sites in Iran had been carried out, including at Fordow. In a posting on Truth Social, Trump added, "All planes are safely on their way home" and he congratulated "our great American Warriors."

The action came as Israel and Iran have been engaged in more than a week of aerial combat that has resulted in deaths and injuries in both countries.

Israel launched the attacks on Iran saying that it wanted to remove any chance of Tehran developing nuclear weapons.

Diplomatic efforts by Western nations to stop the hostilities had so far been unsuccessful.

According to Saudi Gazette, Israel struck a nuclear research facility in Iran early Saturday and killed multiple senior Iranian commanders, as its military warned of a potentially protracted war aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure.

The Israeli military said the overnight strike targeted two centrifuge production sites near a mountain in Isfahan in a two-phase operation. It was the second attack on the city since the war began on June 13.

Akbar Salehi, deputy governor for security affairs in Isfahan province, confirmed the attack caused damage but reported no human casualties.

An Israeli military official said recent operations had disabled over half of Iran’s missile and drone launchers. He described Iran’s retaliatory drone and missile barrage overnight as a “small-scale” attack that was mostly intercepted. “We’ve created a bottleneck,” the official said. “But Iran clearly retains capabilities.”

Meanwhile, Magen David Adom, Israel’s national emergency service, reported that a drone hit a residential building in northern Israel, though no injuries were reported.

Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin, Israel’s chief military spokesperson, said the army has been instructed to prepare for a “prolonged campaign” focused on eliminating nuclear enrichment facilities and missile infrastructure. “We are deepening our strikes night after night,” he said.

“We will continue until the threat is removed.”

Diplomatic talks in Geneva on Friday failed to yield a breakthrough.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remained open to diplomacy but would not engage with the US while Israeli attacks continued. “Iran is ready to consider diplomacy once aggression is stopped,”

Araghchi said, warning that any US military involvement would be “very dangerous for everyone.”

President Donald Trump is reportedly considering US intervention but has delayed a decision for up to two weeks.

Analysts note that only American “bunker-buster” bombs could reach Iran’s underground Fordo enrichment facility.

Since June 13, Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 722 people in Iran, including 285 civilians, according to an Iranian human rights group based in Washington. Over 2,500 people have been wounded.

Iran has launched more than 450 missiles and 1,000 drones at Israel, killing 24 and injuring hundreds.

Among the most high-profile killings, Israel confirmed the deaths of Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, Gen. Hossein Salami, and Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh in its opening strikes.

On Saturday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced the killing of Saeed Izadi, a senior Quds Force commander tied to Hamas, in an airstrike in Qom.

Another top Quds Force figure, Behnam Shahriyari, allegedly responsible for weapons transfers to Hezbollah and Hamas, was also killed in western Iran.

Israel further claimed it had eliminated a senior Iranian drone commander overnight.

On Friday, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi warned the UN Security Council of the catastrophic risk of targeting Iran’s only commercial nuclear reactor in Bushehr.

“A direct hit would result in a very high release of radioactivity,” Grossi said. So far, Israel has avoided striking the Bushehr plant, instead focusing on facilities at Natanz, centrifuge workshops near Tehran, laboratories in Isfahan, and the Arak heavy water reactor.

Iran, which once accepted international oversight under the 2015 nuclear deal, began ramping up enrichment and curbing inspections after Trump withdrew the US from the agreement.

On Saturday, senior adviser Ali Larijani threatened Grossi in a social media post, blaming his remarks for prompting Israeli aggression. “Grossi will pay after the war,” Larijani wrote, without elaboration.

While Iran insists its nuclear ambitions are peaceful, it remains the only non-nuclear-weapons state enriching uranium to 60%.

Israel, which has never confirmed possessing nuclear weapons, is widely believed to be the Middle East’s sole nuclear power

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, 20 June 2025

Iran likely to attack US bases in Middle East

More than 40,000 US service members and civilians — as well as billions of dollars in military equipment — are in the Middle East, spread out across bases in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Those working in countries closest to Iran, including Iraq and Kuwait, would conceivably have only minutes to prepare for an incoming Iranian strike. The Hill suggests, President Donald Trump should order the US military to join Israel’s bombing campaign.

Israel, last week unleashed a barrage of airstrikes on Iran that set off the largest conflict ever between the two regional adversaries, with Tehran responding with its own attacks.

Trump has not yet decided on possible US military action against Iran, telling reporters through his top spokesperson that he would make his decision within two weeks.

In response, Iran has threatened to directly attack US forces should they enter Israel’s war campaign, with the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning Wednesday, “Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.” 

Tehran’s threats aren’t idle, as the country has retaliated against Washington in the past, most notably in January 2020, when Trump in his first term ordered an airstrike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force.

The strike, which happened as Soleimani traveled to Baghdad, prompted a swift response from Iran, which days later hammered Al-Asad Air Base in Iraq and another US base in Erbil with 13 ballistic missiles. While no Americans were killed in the largest ballistic missile attack ever against US forces abroad, more than 100 were later diagnosed and treated for traumatic brain injuries.

Reportedly, Trump is considering using the GBU-57 — known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator or so-called bunker buster bomb — to damage Iran’s Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, a similar attack from Tehran can’t be ruled out. Iran has the ballistic missiles ready to go, those strikes could happen in less than 15 minutes.

 

Iranian missiles hit Israeli port city

According to CNN, nearly two dozen people were wounded in parts of Israel on Friday after Iran unleashed a fresh barrage of missiles. Foreign ministers from the Britain, France, and Germany met their Iranian counterpart in Geneva on Friday.

The talks come as US President Donald Trump says he will decide within two weeks whether to join Israel’s ongoing military campaign against Iran, amid reports that Washington is actively considering intervention.

Iran said the latest attack targeted “military objectives, defense industries, and command centers” in Israel, a spokesperson for the country’s Revolutionary Guard said.

Haifa's mayor stressed need for peace after the Iranian missile barrage on Friday.

The “name of the game is peace,” Yona Yahav, mayor of the northern Israeli city, told CNN. He said the two-week deadline set by President Donald Trump to decide on whether the US will join Israel’s military action on Iran is too long.

Speaking to CNN’s Nic Robertson from the city in the aftermath of a fresh Iranian missile barrage, Mayor Yona Yahav confirmed that no one had been killed in the attack.

According to Israeli emergency services, a total of 21 people were injured in Haifa during the attacks, including three with severe injuries.

Yahav also said “I don’t like wars,” after having personally experienced 10 of them, adding that the “name of the game is peace.”

He said his culturally mixed city has been a mostly peaceful home to both Jews and Arabs for over 100 years.

When asked about the talks that are being held in Geneva between Iran and European countries, Yahav said he hoped that a peace treaty would be the ultimate end result.

The mayor said that the two-week deadline President Trump had given to decide US actions on Iran was “too much,” as he said it is difficult for residents to live while wrapped up in war.

“A fixed answer I can’t get from Trump, and this bothers me,” he said.

“Because I like stability, and I think that he has to give me this stability.”

PSX benchmark index down 1.74%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) maintained a bearish momentum during the week ended on June 20, 2025. The benchmark index closed the week at 120,023 points, down 2,120 points or 1.74%WoW.

Average daily trading volume declined by 9.4%WoW to 822 million shares, from 907 million shares a week ago.

The week began with the Pakistan’s central bank maintaining a status quo decision on Monday.

Several macroeconomic data points were released during the week: for May 2025 current account deficit was reported at US$103 million and net FDI inflow at US$194 million.

Auctions during the week witnessed a reduction in PIB cut-off yields, while there was an increase in T-Bill cut-off yields.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan rose by US$46 million to US$11.7 billion as of June 06, 2025.

PKR depreciated by 0.26%WoW against the greenback.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) LSM index was up by 2.3%YoY in May, 2) IT exports surged to US$3.5 billion in 11MFY25, up 19%YoY, 3) Urea/DAP sales rose by 5%YoY and 135%YoY during May, 4) GoP launched National Electric Vehicle Policy, and 5) Draft tariff policy for 2025-30 unveiled.

Woollen, Jute, Modarabas, Close-end mutual funds and Transport were amongst the top performing sectors, while Power, Engineering, Inv. Banks/ Inv. Cos/ Securities Cos, Glass & Ceramics, and Tobacco were the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net sell of US$9.9 million followed by Insurance companies with a net sell of US$3.4 million. Individuals absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$15.6 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: BNWM, YOUW, PABC, HGFA, and EFUG, while laggards included: PKGP, MUGHAL, KTML, TRG, and FCEPL.

 According to AKD Securities in the short term, market performance would be influenced by the ongoing regional conflict between Iran and Israel. However, the brokerage house expects the market to remain on positive trajectory.

The forecast is based on strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.