Saturday 17 August 2024

Bangladesh: Yunus faces a rough terrain

Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus has become the leader of Bangladesh's caretaker government on August 08, 2024 following weeks of turmoil that began when student-led protests rose up against the government and climaxed with the dramatic resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

As Yunus and the interim government have tough work ahead to quell social unrest, they also have to deal with mounting expectations for structural reforms and prepare for free and fair elections to be held sometime soon.

Who is this Nobel Prize winner, what sparked the rage that chased away Hasina and how are neighboring countries reacting?

Yunus is best known for his work with Grameen Bank, which traces its origins to small unsecured loans he began making to poor families in 1974. Hasina saw this champion of the underclass as a political threat, indicting him on what many saw as a long history of trumped-up charges.

Bangladesh was under the firm grip of Hasina until a few weeks ago. With her now out of the country, many citizens are waking up to a hopeful future for "a new Bangladesh" under the nonpartisan interim government headed by an 84-year-old economist, despite a series of economic challenges and the lingering effects of unrest.

Hasina enjoyed a good relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But in the wake of her resignation and fleeing the country, uncertainty hangs over the two nations. As India's biggest South Asian trading partner, Bangladesh has received much investment from its neighbor, politically and financially

Hasina had recently signed a slew of economic, trade and public health agreements with China. With the countries also having elevated their relationship to a "comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership," how will Beijing find working with the next government?

For Yunus, who will lead the caretaker administration, the first and most urgent task will be to reestablish the rule of law.

However, the bigger and more difficult tasks will be to prevent interference of United States and continue to receive aid/ financial support from China and Russia.

Yunus has to quickly come up with a “home grown plan” to break the IMF shekels. The largest source of foreign exchange for Bangladesh is “textiles and clothing” and the major buyers are United States and members of European Union, who may opt for pressure tactics to keep Bangladesh away from China and Russia.

Europe planning Abraham Accords II

According to the Tehran Times, France, Germany, and Britain intend to join the 146 countries recognizing Palestine as a state, contingent upon significant concessions from Iran, including its recognition of Israel and a halt to support for resistance groups in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria.

The initiative proposed by France and endorsed by Britain and Germany aims to offer additional protections for Israel but does not establish any conditions to safeguard Palestinians against Israel's apartheid policies in the occupied territories, its massacres in Gaza, the abuse of Palestinian prisoners, or the growing number of illegal settlements in the West Bank.

If the initiative is implemented, the European trio will align with their counterparts in Norway, Ireland, and Spain, who became the latest group of European countries to recognize Palestine as a state earlier this year. While the May decision drew fury from the Israeli regime, it failed to stop the ongoing suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied territories.

According to information gathered by the Tehran Times, White House officials have expressed their support for the European plan as they view it as a continuation of the 2020 Abraham Accords, which led to recognition of Israel's sovereignty over Palestinian territories by some Arab and African nations, including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.

Saudi Arabia was on the verge of joining the accords before the outbreak of the latest round of Israeli onslaughts in Gaza. 

Some critics in Europe and the US have warned that even if Iran were to acknowledge Israel and distance itself from the resistance, Israel would not be granted the security it desires. Rather, the move would reinforce the regime's unlawful practices and hinder any prospects for a genuine peace process. They highlight that the Abraham Accords did not stop the successful Hamas operation on October 7, when Palestinian fighters seized control of several Israeli settlements for hours and took some Israelis to Gaza.

Sources have told the Tehran Times that voices averse to the initiative believe Western leaders should recognize and respect Palestinians’ rights, instead of turning to regional countries to strengthen Israel’s hand. 

The Tehran Times understands that besides the perceived impracticality and ineffectiveness of the initiative, some in Europe and the United States also believe that Iran is highly unlikely to acquiesce to Europe's demands.

Nevertheless, the leaders of France, Germany, and Britain intend to promote the initiative in the future as a way to vindicate themselves following months of intense criticism regarding their support for Israel’s devastating campaign in Gaza. 

Europe intends to throw the ball in Iran’s court and blame it for the crisis in Gaza after Tehran rejects the initiative, the Tehran Times was informed. Rather than a genuine attempt at peace, Europe’s proposed recognition of Palestine is a calculated move to shift blame onto Iran. 

In the past 10 months, over 40,000 Palestinians have lost their lives as a direct result of Israeli attacks on the besieged enclave. War experts say at least 100,000 more people will end up losing their lives, due to the complete decimation of medical centers in Gaza, as well as an acute shortage of food, clean water, and medicine.

 

Uzbekistan and Afghanistan sign agreements

Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov arrived in Afghanistan on Saturday, marking the highest-level visit by a foreign official since the Taliban returned to power three years ago.

Aripov, leading a delegation, was welcomed at Kabul airport by Abdul Salam Hanafi, the Taliban’s deputy prime minister, and other senior government officials, according to a statement from Afghanistan's Ministry of Industry and Commerce.

During his visit, Aripov met with Taliban leaders to discuss bilateral relations, with a focus on strengthening trade and business ties between the two countries. The talks resulted in the signing of five trade and investment agreements.

Additionally, the officials are set to inaugurate an exhibition of Uzbek products in Afghanistan.

Earlier in the week, an Uzbek delegation engaged in meetings with Afghanistan's Ministry of Commerce. On Friday, Afghan media reported a trilateral meeting among the economy ministers of Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan in Kabul to explore ways to enhance trade relations.

Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, which share a 144-kilometer (89-mile) border, have seen a recent improvement in relations.

The Taliban, who seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021 as US and NATO troops withdrew, have yet to be recognized by the international community due to concerns over their restrictive policies.

 

Bangladesh: Breaking free from Indian octopus

We are pleased to share with our readers a letter by Mahmudur Rahman published in South Asia Journal. He has talked in the least number of words about Indian hegemony in the region,

In the later years of my life, I completed a PhD thesis titled “The Rise of Indian Hegemony in South Asia and the Security of Small States.” This work was finalized in mid-2022, a period marked by the authoritarian rule of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, who maintained a firm grip over a population of 180 million. In brief, the conclusions of my research were as follows:

• As soon as British colonial rule in the subcontinent ended in 1947, India embarked on a relentless quest to establish complete hegemonic control over the region.

• Despite being relatively weaker both militarily and economically, Pakistan emerged as the primary regional barrier to India’s ambitions. Beyond the region, China also posed a formidable challenge to India’s hegemonic aspirations.

• Indian hegemony has been thwarted in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Afghanistan, and the Maldives.

• India has only managed to establish hegemony over Bhutan and Bangladesh in the region. In the case of Bhutan, this dominance has been maintained through a treaty signed in 1949, allowing Delhi to exercise absolute authority to this day. Consequently, Bhutan has been prevented from establishing official diplomatic relations with any of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France. In contrast, India’s dominance over Bangladesh was achieved without any formal hegemonic treaty. Instead, India installed a brutally oppressive puppet government in 2009.

In the great revolution of August, the courageous students and citizens of Bangladesh, through unforgettable sacrifices and acts of heroism, have successfully overthrown the puppet regime installed by India. The murderous fascist Sheikh Hasina has fled to her master, India, to escape the public’s wrath. In a cruel twist of history, the very daughters of the fallen dictator Sheikh Mujib, who had come from Delhi in 1981 to execute India’s mission in Bangladesh, have now been humiliatingly forced to return to Delhi after forty-three years. The people of Bangladesh have, at long last, awakened. However, in the meantime, Hasina, a lackey of Delhi, left behind a trail of destruction, dismantling every institution of the state.

The judiciary has been so severely compromised that it no longer retains any semblance of legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Back in 2010, I authored an editorial titled

“A Farce in the Name of Independent Justice,” which resulted in my prolonged detention and torture by the Detective Branch and Rapid Action Battalion. The young heroes of today’s revolution may not even be aware of these incidents.

Due to Sheikh Hasina’s ruthless use of the police as her personal death squad, this essential state institution has become the object of extreme public hatred. Sixteen years of disgraceful sycophancy from the media have left the so-called fourth estate of the state devoid of any credibility.

The civil administration has been debilitated by pervasive partisanship and corruption, while the nation has been plunged into insurmountable debt under the guise of fake development.

My sympathy lies with Dr. Yunus’s government, which has inherited this lamentable legacy. None of the statistics produced by the fallen government of Bangladesh can be considered credible.

Since 2018, I have repeatedly communicated with the World Bank, ADB, and IMF, bringing to their attention Sheikh Hasina’s corruption and the manipulation of statistics. However, my warnings have been consistently disregarded. Whether the officials in these institutions in Bangladesh were themselves complicit in Hasina’s corruption remains unknown, but how else could they have blindly accepted such false statistics year after year? Surely, they are not all fools.

The critical question now emerges, will India quietly endure this catastrophe?

The fall and flight of Sheikh Hasina in a bloodless revolution is not merely a diplomatic setback for Delhi; it represents the most devastating strategic defeat for India’s hegemonic ambitions in South Asia.

Even the humiliating defeat of the Indian military in Sri Lanka in 1989 is surpassed by the revolution in Bangladesh. The most remarkable achievement of the young revolutionaries lies in the fact that they accomplished this without any external support.

For fifty-three years, we have been paying for the assistance taken from India during the liberation war of 1971. While every political faction in the country, whether left or right, alongside the media and so-called intellectuals, has persistently invoked the memory of 1971, they have simultaneously exploited us economically and dominated our internal politics.

This time, no external power can claim any credit. The United States, despite its rhetoric on democracy and human rights, ultimately deferred to India’s stance on Bangladesh.

The people of Bangladesh have liberated themselves from the shackles of fascism through extraordinary courage and sacrifice, as exemplified by Abu Saeed’s martyrdom. We owe no debt of gratitude to anyone.

Internationally, Dr. Yunus is widely recognized for his close ties with the United States. However, neither he nor any other civil society figure played a pivotal role in this revolution.

Notably, I cannot recall any instance where Dr. Yunus has taken a decisive stance against Indian hegemony in Bangladesh, nor has he publicly condemned Hasina’s enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and human rights abuses. What he may have done behind the scenes is unknown to the public.

Indian Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has always been vocal against Modi’s Hindutva and misrule. Nevertheless, we want to hope that Dr. Yunus will now take a stand against Indian hegemony. As the primary beneficiary of the people’s revolution, he bears a responsibility to repay the debt he owes to the people of Bangladesh.

Although more than a week has passed since the formation of the new government, we have yet to hear any statements from those in power regarding the lopsided agreements with India.

This piece concludes with a call for the formulation of a strategy, in unison with the people, to free Bangladesh from the clutches of the Indian octopus. Long live the revolution.

Bangladesh Zindabad.

 

Friday 16 August 2024

Activists to defy Israeli blockade of Gaza

Peace activists from several countries are setting out on a converted trawler to defy an Israeli blockade and deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

"The purpose of this mission is to send a message that civil society is not OK with what's happening in Gaza," said Fellipe Lopes, the Portuguese media coordinator of the Freedom Flotilla Coalition on board the ship Handala during a stopover in Malta.

It will be a trip fraught with danger. Another coalition ship on a similar mission to Gaza in 2010 was stopped and boarded by Israeli troops, and nine activists died. Other ships were similarly stopped and boarded, without loss of life.

"We expect to encounter resistance throughout our mission," said Australian activist Michael Coleman.

"Ours is not an illegal activity in any shape or form. The International Court of Justice has asked them to grant unfettered access to aid into Gaza and I implore them to let us and other aids through immediately," he said.

The Handala was visited in Malta by 78-year-old retired US Army Colonel and diplomat Ann Wright, who was on board another coalition ship boarded by Israeli troops in 2010, in the incident in which nine activists died.

"These people are very brave, because we don't know what's going to happen. If the Israelis stop them, we know it'll be brutal," Wright said.

The brightly colored Handala carries activists from Italy, France, Norway, Australia, the Netherlands, Syria and a number of Palestinians. It has made several port calls around Scandinavia and the Mediterranean to raise awareness about the situation in Gaza.

Its hull carries slogans reading: "Free Palestine," "Gaza you are not alone" and "Stop the Genocide," while its humanitarian aid cargo consists mostly of medicines.

The trip along the Eastern Mediterranean to Gaza will take a week but organizers said they might stop over in another harbor on the way.

PSX Index Posts 0.67%WoW Decline

The benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange showed varying trends throughout the week, ultimately closing with a modest 0.67%WoW loss at 78,045 points. However, market participation showed signs of recovery, with the average daily traded volume rising to 367.68 million share as against 345.10 million shares a week ago, up 6.5%WoW.

Meanwhile, the government reports progress in negotiations with China regarding the restructuring of power base loans, which is expected to support a reduction in tariffs.

The MSCI, in its August 2024 review transferred SAZEW to its Frontier Market Index, while adding six new stocks to MSCI’s Small Cap index.

July 2024 remittances remained robust, totaling US$3.0 billion, with Saudi Arabia being the highest contributor.

Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose by US$119 million on a weekly basis to US$9.27 billion as of August 09, 2024.

In July 2024 Auto industry sales were up 30%YoY to 10,356 units, additionally Passenger cars & LCV’s sales were reported at 8,589 units, up 69%YoY.

The MS and HSD fuel prices have decreased during the week. Concurrently, Petroleum products imports witnessed a decrease of 27%MoM, reported at US$499 million for July 2024.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week to close at 278.54/US$ on Friday.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Refining sector sets massive furnace oil export target, 2) External debt to GDP ratio hits 6-year low, 3) Internet firewall could cost economy US$300 million, 4) No Cabinet approval to urea import proposal and 5) Five mineral projects picked for investment.

According to AKD Securities Property, Textile Weaving, Jute, Textile spinning & Exchange Traded Funds were amongst the best performers, while Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Automobile Assemblers, Woollen, Leasing Companies & Refinery were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Companies with a net sell of US$4.37 million. Individuals absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$7.18 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: YOUW, JVDC, NPL, GHGL and MARI, while laggards included: KAPCO, NBP, PGLC, NRL and THALL.

Going forward, the market is expected to continue positive momentum as global market concerns settle and macroeconomic indicators remain favorable.

The anticipated IMF Executive Board approval during the month is likely to support the momentum.

Sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms would remain in the limelight. However, modest economic recovery would keep the upside in check for the cyclicals.

 

 

Ukraine: Alternative route for wheat shipment

As Russia blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, grain traders turned to river, rail and road routes to keep crop exports flowing. At present crucial deep-sea ports are again shipping out hefty amounts. Yet major merchant Nibulon plans to keep exporting large volumes via much more expensive river routes.

While river cargoes barely turn a profit for the company, its CEO says it’s important to have a ready-to-use alternative in case Russian attacks cripple Odesa’s ports again. He also expects it to have the knock-on effect of discouraging Russian strikes on Black Sea terminals as it makes such attacks less debilitating to the export industry.

“The very fact that we have alternatives provides protection for Odesa ports,” Nibulon CEO Andriy Vadaturskyy said in an interview. That’s “because Russia will understand that its spending for missile strikes will not deliver the effect they look for and the shipments will not stop.”

Ukraine is a key grain supplier, sending staples like wheat and corn around the world, most of which traditionally goes via the Black Sea. Using whatever export routes are available since the war began has helped to keep a lid on global prices and bring in vital income for Kyiv.

The country’s deep-sea ports have continually been attacked by Russia. River operations that send smaller ships to destinations such as Europe or Egypt, or to Romania for transshipment, have also been attacked. A missile hit a Louis Dreyfus facility in Odesa on Wednesday, though the company said there should be no material disruptions to terminal operations.

Half of Nibulon’s shipments currently go through the Black Sea and half via the Danube River, where export costs are about $6-$7 a ton higher.

Nibulon’s Danube routes are currently operating at about a third of capacity, Vadaturskyy said. The unused capacity could be crucial if traders need to suddenly switch more volume away from Black Sea terminals.

“We should not think that exports through Odesa ports are guaranteed,” the CEO said. “This is the right time to prepare for any challenges and have alternatives when the economy suffers.”