Iran election: Doesn’t matter who win

Masoud Pezeshkian has won the country's run-off presidential vote, the interior ministry said on Saturday. "By gaining majority of the votes cast on Friday, Pezeshkian has become Iran's next president," it said.

The low-profile moderate Masoud Pezeshkian, who has pledged to open Iran to the world and deliver freedoms its people have yearned for, is expected to win the run-off presidential vote on Friday.

Reportedly, the vote counting has ended and the rival candidates have been informed about the result. Pezeshkian is around three million votes ahead of his hardline rival Saeed Jalili.

Earlier, the interior ministry said that Pezeshkian was leading the race in early results, adding that the initial reports showed turnout was around 50%, higher than the first round.

The run-off follows a June 28 ballot with historically low turnout, when over 60% of Iranian voters abstained from the snap election for a successor to Ebrahim Raisi, following his death in a helicopter crash.

The vote is a tight race between low-key lawmaker Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in the original field of four candidates, and hardline former nuclear negotiator Jalili, a staunch advocate of deepening ties with Russia and China.

Videos on social media showed supporters of Pezeshkian dancing in streets in several cities and motorists honking car horns to cheer his victory.

People in the northwestern city of Urmia, Pezeshkian's hometown, were handing sweets out on the streets.

While the election is expected to have little impact on the Islamic Republic's policies, the president will be closely involved in selecting the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's 85-year-old Supreme Leader who calls all the shots on top matters of state.

Western media says, voter turnout has plunged over the past four years, which underlines that support for clerical rule has eroded at a time of growing public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedoms.

Only 48% of voters participated in the 2021 election that brought Raisi to power, and turnout was 41% in a parliamentary election in March.

The election coincides with escalating Middle East tensions due to the war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing uranium enrichment program.

"Voting gives power ... even if there are criticisms, people should vote as each vote is like a missile launch (against enemies)," said Iran's Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Commander Amirali Hajizadeh.

The next president is not expected to produce any major policy shift on the nuclear program or change in support for militia groups across the Middle East, but he runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran's foreign and domestic policy.

Election rivals Jalili and Pezeshkian are establishment men loyal to Iran's theocracy. But analysts said a win by the anti-Western Jalili would signal a potentially an even more authoritarian domestic policy and antagonistic foreign policy.

A triumph by Pezeshkian might promote a pragmatic foreign policy, ease tensions over now-stalled negotiations with major powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal, and improve prospects for social liberalization and political pluralism.

However, many voters are skeptical about Pezeshkian's ability to fulfil his campaign promises as the former health minister has publicly stated that he had no intention of confronting Iran's power elite of clerics and security hawks.

 

 

NATO summit under Biden’s uncertain future

When dozens of world leaders convene in Washington, DC, for the NATO 75th anniversary summit next week, they won’t only be looking to underscore the unity of the alliance — they will also be carefully watching US President Joe Biden after his poor debate performance last week.

Biden’s showing at the CNN presidential debate was met with shock and concern by diplomats around the world. Now, the president will be under immense pressure to perform well at the high-stakes gathering and show that he is still a viable competitor to former President Donald Trump, multiple diplomats told CNN.

The concern is compounded because many believe Trump poses a threat to the future of NATO. He publicly railed against the alliance during his first term in office and did so again recently on the campaign trail, even going as far as suggesting Russia “do whatever the hell they want” to members who don’t meet defense spending targets.

Questions about Biden and his political future inject further uncertainty into a summit where key allies are also dealing with major political changes.

The Labour Party took power in the United Kingdom overnight for the first time in more than a decade, putting a new prime minister — Keir Starmer — in place just days before the start of the summit on Tuesday.

On Sunday, the second round of French parliamentary elections is taking place, which could potentially lead to a far-right prime minister taking office in a massive defeat to President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition.

However, as one former senior US diplomat said, there will “certainly be a spotlight” on Biden at the NATO summit.

“How does he look? And how does he sound? And how does he move? Does he look fit? And I suppose he and his team (will) be trying to focus on making him look spry and more with it,” said the former diplomat, who is a veteran of several of NATO summits.

Biden will undoubtedly be feeling the pressure to perform well, the former diplomat said.

The three-day summit is highly choreographed, and typically little is left to chance. It is preceded by months and months of prep work, discussion and negotiations among the 32 member countries.

During the summit, there will be numerous opportunities for counterparts to interact with Biden — the North Atlantic Council meeting, formal bilateral meetings, a leader’s dinner.

The president will be supported and accompanied to key meetings by Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other key national security officials. Officials such as Blinken and Austin may have one-on-one meetings with their counterparts as well.

Diplomats say the chances of Biden making a major blunder at the NATO summit are limited, but one European diplomat said, that even if Biden does well, “This will still leave doubt,” given how poorly he performed at the debate.

“If there is another clear failure, this will feed into the ‘crisis mood,’” this diplomat said.

The allies are not expected to raise Biden’s debate performance with him directly, but it is expected that they will discuss the debate and their observations next week among themselves.

Another European diplomat said they believe the debate will be used, “even subconsciously, as a benchmark in all kinds of contexts” between now and Election Day.

CNN has reached out to the White House for comment. One US official said they were not aware of concerns that Biden’s debate performance would overshadow the NATO summit, saying that the leaders have spent a good deal of time with the US president, including last month at the G7 summit in Italy.

However, some diplomats were already concerned about Biden’s endurance that summit.

Another source told CNN that British officials who spoke with Biden during the G7 in June assessed he was fine and with it when it came to topics discussed during meetings, but that there was a lot of concern after the debate performance that he did not perform like the same person they interacted with in the meetings.

Adding to the pressure is the increased significance of this year’s NATO summit. The alliance will mark its 75th anniversary and seek to shore up consensus on issues such as support to Ukraine, particularly ahead of a potential change in leadership in the United States.

Trump’s stance on the campaign trail that his adherence to the alliance would be conditional has stirred concerns in the international community. Some question whether Trump will seize the opportunity to again denounce NATO next week. The former US diplomat remarked that “it’s hard to imagine him staying out of it.”

One NATO diplomat told CNN that the attention on Biden next week is a double-edged sword — while they appreciate the immense attention on the summit, there is concern that the actual substance will be lost as all eyes are on the US president.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has sought to focus attention on the content of the summit and away from Biden’s debate performance.

“Next week, in Washington, DC, as you know, the historic summit is to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday.

“For 75 years, NATO has kept us and the world safer. And under the president’s leadership, this president’s leadership, our Alliance is stronger, it’s larger, it’s more united than ever.”

 

PSX average daily volume up 23.8%WoW

Bullish momentum persisted through the first four days of the week, as the KSE-100 index reached its highest-ever closing of 80,283 points on Thursday. Overall, the benchmark index closed at 80,213 on last trading day on the week ended on July 07, 2024, with a gain of 1,767 points, up 2.25%WoW.

With an overall positive market landscape, participation also increased with the average daily traded volume rising to 440 million shares as compared to 355 million shares a week ago, up 23.8%WoW.

The finance minister confirmed positive progress in talks with the IMF, the lending authority appraising of the announced changes in electricity and gas tariffs effective July 01, 2024, with the likelihood of a staff level agreement (SLA) within this month.

On the inflation front, CPI for June 2024 was reported at 12.57%YoY, in-line with the consensus. Meanwhile, trade deficit for June was reported at US$2.39bn, taking FY24 deficit to US$24.09 billion, down by 12%YoY.

On the external front, foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) rose by US$494 million on a weekly basis to US$9.39 billion.

Finally, the domestic currency slightly weakened against the greenback, ending the week at PKR278.38/US$ (down 0.01%WoW).

Pakistan’s Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded their highest sales in 19 months, reaching 1.45 million tons in June 2024. Domestic cement sales fell 4.6% to 38.18 million tons in FY24.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) GoP decided to shut down Pakistan Steel Mills, 2) Cabinet approved PKR5.72/unit hike in Nepra base tariff, 3) Pak-Afghan rulers reestablish contact for talks and 4) Power minister promised tariff relief.

Top performing sectors were INV. Banks / INV. COS./ Securities Cos, Leasing Companies, Exchange Traded Fund, Jute and Commercial Banks, while Synthetic & Rayon, Woollen, Close-end Mutual fund, Tobacco, and Textile Composite were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net sell of US$13.65 million. Foreigners absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$7.69 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: AKBL, NBP, PSX, BOP and PGLC, while laggards included: IBFL, THALL, PAKT, HGFA and FCEPL.

According to AKD Securities, market is expected to return its focus to negotiations with the IMF, to be a key market trigger in the near term.

The rally is expected to continue amidst the market's attractive valuations, with the forward P/E continuing to remain below 4.0x. At these levels, the brokerage house anticipate that sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms will remain prominent.

Its top picks include OGDC, PPL, MARI, MCB, UBL, MEBL, HUBC, FFC, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

Israel's largest West Bank land seizure

Israeli government has approved a large land seizure in the occupied West Bank – the biggest since the 1993 Oslo Accords set out a path for peace between Israel and the Palestinians, according to the Israeli rights group Peace Now.

The Israeli military’s Civil Administration department, which manages civilian matters in the West Bank, issued the declaration on June 25 converting the area into state land, according to a document from the body, but the official notice wasn’t posted until Wednesday, Peace Now said.

The declaration covers a 1,270-hectare (3,138 acre) section of the Jordan Valley in the eastern West Bank near Jericho, the document from the Civil Administration shows.

Peace Now, an Israeli rights group that monitors illegal Israeli settlement expansion, criticized the move in a statement on Wednesday, saying that the seizure makes it even more difficult to establish “a Palestinian state alongside Israel.”

The group also noted that the latest declaration followed several previous announcements that have made this year the biggest, by far, for Israeli land seizures in the Palestinian territory, according to data it has collected that dates back to 1993.

According to the report, declaring land as state property is one of Israel’s primary methods for asserting control over the occupied territories. Once land is designated as state land, Israel no longer recognizes it as privately owned by Palestinians. CNN has reached out to the spokesperson for Israel’s Civil Administration for comment about this specific claim by Peace Now, but has yet to hear back.

Separately, on Monday Israel’s Higher Planning Council, the government body responsible for greenlighting new housing construction in parts of the West Bank, said it would move to approve thousands of new housing units in dozens of Israeli settlements, according to Peace Now.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who also holds a position in the Defense Ministry with significant control over civilian matters in the occupied West Bank, celebrated the move in a Wednesday post on X.

“Building the good country and thwarting the establishment of a Palestinian state. MTA is meeting this morning to approve over 5,000 housing units,” he wrote, using an acronym for The Higher Planning Council.

Smotrich spoke about preventing the occupied West Bank from becoming a part of an independent Palestinian state, according to leaked audio of a speech he gave in June.

On Sunday, Israel sparked condemnation after the finance minister announced plans to legally recognize five unauthorized Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Courtesy: Saudi Gazette

 

 

Russian to cut oil exports from Black Sea

Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil will sharply cut oil exports from the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk in July as the companies resume operations at their refineries, reports Reuters

Combined Novorossiisk oil loadings by Rosneft and Lukoil in July will fall by some 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) as compared to last month.

Last week Russian government decided to continue with unrestricted gasoline exports in July, extending the waiver for a partial ban on overseas fuel sales, as Russia's domestic oil plants produce enough oil products to meet peak seasonal demand despite a spate of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.

Rosneft oil exports from Novorossiisk are set to fall to 0.62 million metric tons in July from 1.06 million tons in June, while its Tuapse refinery is set to resume crude runs this month.

Lukoil's exports from the port will fall to 0.19 million tons in July from 0.58 million tons last month.

Lukoil restarted a key piece of equipment for oil processing, the CDU-6 crude distillation unit, at its NORSI refinery, Russia's fourth-largest, following a drone attack in March.

Rosneft and Lukoil did not reply to Reuters requests for comments.

Novorossiisk total oil loadings in July were set at 1.8 million tons, down from 2.9 million tons in June.

Russia's overall oil exports and transit from its western ports in July are expected to decline from June amid higher refinery runs and Moscow's pledge to stick to OPEC Plus output cuts.

Biden prioritizing politics over fair policy

Twelve US government employees who resigned in protest of President Biden’s handling of Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip are accusing the administration of prioritizing politics over fair policymaking. 

The dozen signatories on a joint statement represent a wide spectrum of government staff, including former employees of the State Department, Department of Interior and White House, as well as former military officers. They resigned in protest at different times over the nine months of Israel’s war against Hamas following the US-designated terrorist group’s October 07 attack. 

“Both our individual and common experiences demonstrate an Administration that has prioritized politics over just and fair policymaking; profit over national security; falsehoods over facts; directives over debate; ideology over experience, and special interest over the equal enforcement of the law,” they wrote.

“The impact of these injustices has resulted in tens of thousands of innocent Palestinian lives taken, reflecting a clear picture to the world of whose lives matter, and whose lives simply do not to United States policy makers. As members of the United States Government, each of us witnessed this abrogation of American values, leading us to resign.”

The twelve wrote that they have grave concerns with current US policy towards the crisis in Gaza, and US policies and practices towards Palestine and Israel more broadly. 

The statement lays out six policy recommendations for the administration to implement, calling for the US to faithfully execute the law related to American weapons deliveries to Israel. 

“The Administration is currently willfully violating multiple US laws and attempting to deny or distort facts, use loopholes, or manipulate processes to ensure a continuous flow of lethal weapons to Israel,” the statement reads.

The signatories call for the US to exert all leverage to bring fighting to a halt, secure the release of Israeli hostages from Hamas and the release of Palestinian minors in Israeli jails; surge humanitarian support to Gaza; support of self-determination for the Palestinian people and “an end to military occupation and settlements, including in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.”

 

Pezeshkian or Jalili: To be decided on Friday

Iranians are set to head to the polls on Friday, July 5, to choose their next president in a runoff election. Competition is tight between reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative Saeed Jalili who respectively gained 10.41 million and 9.47 million votes during the preliminary round on June 28.

The incoming president will be stepping into the role left vacant by the untimely passing of President Ebrahim Raisi. Raisi tragically lost his life in a helicopter crash on May 19, with more than a year remaining in his term, and was anticipated to secure a second term in 2025.

With a campaign ban taking effect in the early hours of Thursday, we have decided to compare and contrast the plans, perspectives, and campaigns of the two candidates competing in the run-off election in this article.

Pezeshkian’s entrance into the presidential fray was sudden and unexpected. In his own words, he was not expecting to get qualified to run for president, as he had initially failed to get vetted as a nominee by the Guardian Council during the 2023 parliamentary elections.

In many of his debates and addresses to the Iranian populace, the reformist candidate said he needed to “consult experts” on economic and societal issues and refrained from detailing his agenda. While it is in no way bad to seek counsel from experts, some people had hoped that they would hear in more detail how Pezeshkian was planning to govern.

Jalili though, has campaigned for presidency multiple times in the past. He managed to outline more well-received plans and policies during debates. His remarks, however, have sometimes been deemed as too vague or too specific for the general public to understand. The fact that Jalili was allegedly a key contributor to the late President Raisi’s administration, also helped him hold a better grasp of the current issues in the country.

Pezeshkian’s entourage and key supporters are both a strong point and a point of weakness for him due to the reformists’ long and eventful time in office. Though, Pezeshkian has claimed that he does not align with any political party, any figure or former official ever seen besides him during his campaign has been a reformist or centrist.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, is one of the figures who’s garnered both support and disdain for Pezeshkian. Some like Zarif for having commenced close dialogue with the United States for the first time in decades, and some reprimand him for naively compromising on Iran’s nuclear capabilities without making sure that Washington would uphold its commitments.

As for Jalili, there is no denying that his entourage and associates have been a significant vulnerability for him. Some of his representatives ended up making extremely controversial and uncalculated remarks on TV, making it easier for reformists to stigmatize Jalili as an inflexible and hard figure.

Pezeshkian is seen as a critic of President Raisi’s government. He and his advisors have repeatedly accused the Raisi administration of not caring about the termination of sanctions, saying that a reformist comeback in return would ensure the “normalization” of ties with the West.

That’s while most analysts agree that Raisi’s only difference with his centrist predecessor Hassan Rouhani was that he did not believe in tying the country’s existence to the sanctions removal, and sought dialogue with not only the West but also countries outside the Western hemisphere.

Jalili’s potential administration is considered to be a continuation of martyr Raisi’s time in office. Jalili thinks Iran should make the West “regret” its shunning of the JCPOA. He has not explained how his potential administration plans to do that, but his remarks have been praised by some who believe there is no point in expecting sincerity from the West, as such an approach has failed Iran in the past.

Pezeshkian’s views on the economy seem to be more liberal than his opponent. He believes energy prices should increase and the government must have less control over the market.

Jalili on the other hand, is in favor of maintaining and increasing energy subsidies. He also believes that the government must incorporate public participation in the economy, but says the government must still act as a supervising body.

Courtesy: Tehran Times