Iran launches ‘Operation Truthful Promise’

Reportedly, Iran has launched retaliatory attacks against Israel, which struck its embassy in Damascus on April 01, killing 7 high-ranking military officials.

Israeli reports say Iran has already fired three waves of drones at Israeli positions, as well as a number of cruise missiles. Footage captured by citizens in Iraq, suggests Iran's famous Shahed-136 drones are among the UAVs launched at Israel.

The initial announcement regarding the launch of the Iranian attacks came from the Israeli military. Daniel Hagari, the army’s spokesperson, stated that the drones would take some hours to reach their destination while emphasizing Israel's readiness for the situation.

During a briefing with the press, Hagari highlighted that Israel has defensive and offensive measures in place and maintains close cooperation with the US and regional partners.

Iran also confirmed it has begun its retaliation against Israel through a TV announcement.

"In response to various crimes of the Zionist regime, including the attack on the Iranian consulate section in Damascus and the martyrdom of some of our country's military commanders and advisors in Syria, the IRGC's Air Force targeted specific objectives inside the occupied territories by hitting them with dozens of missiles and drones," a news anchor said, reading a statement by the Islamic Revolution Gaurd Corps (IRGC).

ABC News has quoted American officials claiming that 400 to 500 drones are currently making their way towards Israel after being launched from Iran's territory.

Before the direct Iranian attack on Israeli targets, Hezbollah initiated a significant rocket barrage targeting the northern areas of occupied Palestine and the Golan Heights.

A cyber attack also plunged vast areas of the occupied territories, including Tel Aviv, into darkness.

Further Information indicates that both the Lebanese group and the Ansarullah movement in Yemen have initiated drone attacks on the occupied territories concurrently with Iranian strikes.

Iran seizes cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz

Iran's Revolutionary Guards seized an Israeli-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the Iranian state-run IRNA news agency reported, days after Tehran warned it could close the area to sea traffic.

IRNA reported that a Guards helicopter had boarded and taken into Iranian waters the Portuguese flagged MSC Aries.

Shipping security agencies had earlier reported a vessel being boarded and seized by regional authorities in the Hormuz Strait between the United Arab Emirates and Iran.

The Aries is leased by international shipping line MSC from Gortal Shipping, an affiliate of Zodiac Maritime, Zodiac said in a statement, adding that MSC is responsible for all vessel activities. Zodiac is partly owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer.

The incident comes amid rising regional tensions since the start of Israel's campaign in Gaza in October last year, with Israel and its ally the United States clashing repeatedly with Iranian-aligned groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Iran had threatened to retaliate for suspected Israeli airstrikes on its consulate in Syria's capital Damascus on April 01 that killed seven Revolutionary Guards officers including two senior commanders.

US President Joe Biden said on Friday he expected Iran to attack Israel sooner, rather than later and warned Tehran not to proceed.

Israel's military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said "Iran will bear consequences for choosing to escalate this situation any further", in response to reports of the seizure of MSC Aries.

On Tuesday the naval head of the Revolutionary Guards, Alireza Tangsiri, said it could close the Strait of Hormuz if deemed necessary.

He said Iran viewed as a threat Israel's presence in the UAE, with which Israel established diplomatic relations in 2020 as part of the "Abraham Accords" mediated by the United States.

Yemen's Houthi group has disrupted global trade in the Red Sea for months, saying it is aiming at vessels linked to Israel in retaliation for Israel's campaign in Gaza.

The United States and Britain have carried out strikes against Houthi targets in response to the attacks on shipping.

The Joint Maritime Information Center, run by a Western-led naval coalition, said vessels intending to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes, should exercise caution and not loiter.

 

 

Biden moving in wrong direction

"The United States ought to be distancing itself from Israel's illegal attack, but instead the Biden administration is moving to shield Israel from the consequences of its own actions," Daniel Larison wrote.

Israeli appears to want to goad Iran into a military response to divert attention from the slaughter and famine in Gaza and to trap the US into joining the fight. Biden has made it that much easier for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by volunteering to walk into the trap.

Israeli forces have routinely struck Iranian and other targets in Syria for more than a decade, but the attack on the consulate in Damascus was a major escalation both in terms of the location and the rank of the Iranian officers that were killed.

An imminent Iranian response to Israel's deadly bombing of Tehran's consulate in the Syrian capital earlier this month is heightening fears of a devastating regional conflict in which the United States—Israel's top ally and arms supplier—could become directly involved.

The US embassy in Jerusalem issued a security warning on Thursday and restricted its employees' travel ahead of a possible Iranian response as soon as Friday. US officials, according to Politico, have assessed that Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message—but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond.

US President Joe Biden and top administration officials have in recent days stressed their "ironclad" commitment to defending Israel in the case of an Iranian reprisal, despite widespread condemnation of Israel's consulate attack as a significant escalation and flagrant violation of international law.

"When the Israeli regime completely violates the immunity of individuals and diplomatic places in violation of international law and the Vienna Conventions, legitimate defense is a necessity," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a statement Thursday.

Two unnamed US officials told CBS News that Iran's response could include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country." Biden administration officials have asked China and other nations to urge Iran not to respond to the consulate attack.

The Israeli government, which is currently waging a catastrophic war on the Gaza Strip, signaled it would respond forcefully to any Iranian retaliation, raising the possibility of direct US involvement.

Axios reported that the senior US military commander in charge of the Middle East visited Israel Thursday to coordinate around a possible attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies.

While war hawks in the US have used the surge in tensions to agitate for a direct American-Israeli attack on Iran, advocacy groups and anti-war commentators have warned against any additional escalation, fearing the eruption of all-out military conflict in the Middle East.

"A regional war involving the US, Israel, and Iran would be disastrous for US interests, the people of Iran, and the security of the region as a whole," the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) said earlier this week.

Responsible Statecraft columnist Daniel Larison wrote Friday that with its unwavering support for the Netanyahu government, the Biden administration is moving in the wrong direction.

 

Terrorists targeting Iranian coastal areas

According to Tehran Times, on April 3, 2024 security forces engaged in a 17-hour battle against terrorists in two separate cities within Iran's southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan.

During the confrontation, 12 members of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) and 4 police officers lost their lives as they fought to clear the region of terrorists affiliated with the so-called Jaish-ul-Adl outfit. 

The clash ensued after 18 members of the terrorist group launched simultaneous attacks on five military bases overnight. In Chabahar, they escalated the situation by seizing a residential building and taking civilian hostage while resisting security forces. Ultimately, all 18 terrorists were neutralized.

The terrorist group cited its motive for the attacks as obstructing the "Makran Coasts Development Plan." It claimed that the plan which is expected to rake in millions of dollars for locals in southeastern Iran aims to “change the Sunni demographic” of the region.

Makran, a historically significant region stretching from the mountains west of Jask to portions of Pakistan's Baluchistan province along the Sea of Oman, has witnessed recent infrastructural development by Iran. The Chabahar port has particularly emerged as a crucial trade gateway connecting the Indian Ocean with landlocked nations in Central Asia.

External separatist groups and oppositionists have persistently attempted to discredit the Iranian government's economic initiatives in Sistan and Baluchistan province, portraying them as detrimental to local interests.

Often featured on Western-based news channels, Balouch separatists have propagated sensational claims, including the unfounded assertion that over 20 million Shia Muslims would be relocated to the port city of Chabahar. It's worth noting that Tehran's population, with the capital city having been the economic and cultural hub of Iran, has only increased by 7 million over the past 45 years.

Despite being a Shia-majority nation, Iran ensures equal rights and freedoms for all religious sects and minorities. Every religious group has representation in the parliament, and individuals from diverse backgrounds can ascend to prominent political, diplomatic, and military positions. For instance, the Iranian Army's Navy, one of Iran’s most important military forces, is led by Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, a Sunni commander.

Iran's judiciary and law enforcement authorities also make sure to uphold the rights of religious minorities. As warned by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, the desecration of the sanctities of any religious group is deemed a grave offense with strict legal consequences.

Despite centuries and perhaps thousands of years peaceful coexistence among Iranian citizens, media outlets affiliated with Israel, Western powers, and Wahabi groups persist in sowing discord under various pretexts.

For the past several years, their main tool for destabilizing southeastern Iran and creating friction has been the Jaish-ul-Adl, known within Iran as Jaish-ul-Zolm. Pictures of the individuals liquidated on April 3 show the group had managed to equip its terrorists with advanced weapons, making them resemble members of a conventional army rather than a terrorist entity residing in the deserted mountains of Pakistan. 

"Iran occupies a pivotal position globally, offering significant potential to serve as a key economic corridor in the future. This realization has spurred the nation to intensify its development efforts along coastal regions," remarked Vahid Raz Afzoon, an expert in coastal development, speaking to the Tehran Times.

"Makran, particularly Chabahar, receives special attention from Iranian authorities. The area holds immense promise to evolve into an economic nucleus, providing substantial benefits primarily to the locals of Sistan and Baluchistan, many of whom currently seek employment opportunities in other provinces."

Sistan and Baluchistan province has lagged behind other Iranian regions in terms of economic development. Analysts believe that the development of the Makran coasts could herald a transformative era for the area.

"A multitude of projects exist that could contribute to the prosperity of this region. As progress unfolds, elites from the province, currently residing in urban centers such as Tehran, Esfahan, and Mashhad, will get the chance to work in their hometown," Raz Afzoon elaborated. "Iran, like many other developing nations, has concentrated its development efforts in the capital and surrounding regions. It is imperative that this paradigm shifts. People in all 31 provinces should be able to pursue career opportunities in their hometowns and remain close to their families once they finish their studies,” he added. 

Decentralization is an issue several Asian countries are grappling with including established economies like Japan and South Korea. The Iranian government is also trying to come up with more plans and policies to dial back overdependence on Tehran and its environs. In Iran, however, it seems that authorities have more to overcome than statistical and infrastructural hurdles.

“Separatists residing abroad and terrorists like Jaish-ul-Adl know the development of Makran will benefit everyone including the locals. That’s why you don’t see them coming up with a meaningful argument,” Raz Afzoon stated.  

The routine assaults by terrorists will most likely demotivate foreign investors like India and China, preventing them from spending money on Iran’s mega projects. The longer these attacks continue, the more locals in southeastern Iran are forced to wait to finally enjoy the same amount of prosperity as those residing in the capital. 

In fact, the attacks that shook the region earlier in the month are already taking a toll on the region's economy. Tourism has been booming in Sistan and Baluchistan in the last few years. Chabahar in particular, was one of the most popular tourist destinations for Iranians in 2022 and 2023. With people fearing that they could get tangled in a spontaneous armed clash, travel agencies predict that the city will lose a significant number of visitors in the upcoming cooler seasons.

 

Iran's trade with OIC member states

The value of the trade exchanges between Iran and the other 56 member states of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) reached US$61 billion in the past Iranian calendar year ended on March 19, 2024.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which was formed in 1972, has reached a position where, according to statistics, the future of the world's energy would be in the hands of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Shafeie said in his speech.

The head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) put the volume of the trade exchanges between Iran and OIC member states from March 21, 2023, to March 19, 2024, at 94 million tons.

Iran exported US$29 billion of products to these countries and imported US$32 billion worth of products from them, said Mohammad Rezvanifar while talking to IRNA.

The deputy minister of economy went on to say that the country’s export of products to the OIC members last year registered an 11% decline in value while the import of products from these countries increased 13% as compared to a year ago.

Among the OIC member states, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, Oman, Afghanistan, Malaysia and Indonesia were Iran’s major trade partners.

Back in May 2023, the former head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) stressed the need for establishing a joint Islamic market among OIC members over the next 10 years.

Addressing a gathering of the heads of OIC member chambers of commerce on the sidelines of the "Russia - Islamic World: Kazan Forum 2023" in Russia, Gholam-Hossein Shafeie said, “An important issue that has been discussed a lot in the past and the organization should pay attention to it in the current situation is the creation of a common Islamic market in the next 10 years, which can be achieved by concluding a free trade agreement among Islamic countries and removing tariff and non-tariff barriers.”

“Experts have worked on the Islamic market plan, and using the experiences and studies of these experts can definitely be a way forward,” he added.

 

Nicaragua asks ICJ to end German support of Israeli

Nicaragua has asked the International Court of Justice to order Germany to halt military arms exports to Israel and to resume its funding of the UN Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA, saying there is a serious risk of genocide in Gaza.

Nicaragua's agent ambassador Carlos Jose Arguello Gomez told the court Berlin had violated the 1948 Genocide Convention by continuing to supply Israel with arms after ICJ judges ruled it was plausible that Israel violating some rights guaranteed under the genocide convention during its assault on Gaza, Reuters reported. 

He told the judges that Berlin was ignoring its obligations under international law by continuing to provide military assistance to Israel.

The German government rejected Nicaragua's allegations.

Berlin is one of the major arms exporters to Israel, sending 326.5 million euros (US$353.70 million) in military equipment and weapons in 2023, according to Economy Ministry data.

 

 

 

 

Iran Conundrum

Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew said Khamenei was "trapped in a strategic conundrum".

"Iran must respond to restore deterrence and maintain credibility among its Resistance Front allies. But on the other hand, retaliating to restore deterrence would likely bring an even greater, and more destructive Israeli response, likely with US assistance," he said.

The Iranian sources said the United States had asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow space for diplomacy, cautioning Tehran that in the event of a direct attack it will stand by Israel.

Iran believes Netanyahu aims to draw Tehran into a war; therefore its retaliation could be a restrained one that avoids direct strikes on Israeli territory and may draw on Tehran's allies.

Reportedly, the US Middle East envoy has called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel.

A source familiar with the issue said the US might well agree to revived nuclear talks if that could prevent a conflagration.

“If we are talking about talks and not (about) reaching an agreement, then it would seem to be well worth the price if the payoff is minimizing the risk of a regional escalation into which the US would be dragged,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group said Iran’s dilemma was "to figure out how to retaliate in a way that it saves face without losing its head".

"Israel is much more unpredictable than the US," he said. "The Supreme Leader is clearly concerned that rather than delivering the deterrent effect he might hope to achieve, an attack on Israel may only fuel a counter-escalation he might have hoped to avoid."