Turkey: Opposition heads for victory

According to a BBC report, Turkey's main opposition party is closing in on victory in the main cities of Istanbul and Ankara, in high-stakes local elections.

Istanbul's opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who won the city in 2019, said that he was "very happy" so far.

A year after Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured a third term as president, he had made it his goal to win back the city where he grew up and became mayor. But the night belonged to the opposition as it closed in on victory.

With 80% the vote counted in Istanbul, Imamoglu was almost 10 points ahead of his rival from Erdogan's AK Party.

In the capital Ankara, his colleague in the secular opposition CHP, Mansur Yavas, was so far ahead of his rival that he declared victory when less than half the votes were in.

President Erdogan, 70, had led his party's election campaign in Istanbul, vowing a new era in Turkey's biggest city. The outcome was being as a significant blow for the man who has led Turkey for the past 21 years.

Significantly, the opposition CHP was also leading in many of Turkey's other big cities, including Izmir and Bursa, and the resort of Antalya.

Crowds in Istanbul, a megacity of almost 16 million people, gathered outside one of the main town halls. They waved Turkish flags and banners showing Imamoglu's picture alongside Turkey's founding father Kemal Ataturk.

"I can say that our citizens' trust and faith in us has been rewarded," said Imamoglu.

Both he and Mansur Yavas are seen as potential candidates to run for the presidency in 2028.

"Everything is going to be great," Imamoglu supporters chanted as they danced to drums and clarinets in Sarachane, one of Istanbul's oldest districts.

Istanbul's incumbent mayor had first used the slogan when he won the city from Erdogan's party five years ago. Some of the banners in Sarachane used his current slogan, "Full speed ahead".

"They're only local elections but the opposition's victory in big cities is a significant show of force against the ruling party," Imamoglu supporter Yesim Albayrak, 25, told the BBC.

I am now hoping the country will become a more secular country, respecting human rights, women's rights and children’s rights.

Mehmet Bankaci, 27, told the BBC there was a need for change in Turkey, "If Imamoglu or Mansur Yavas had been the CHP candidate in last year's presidential election, they definitely would have won."

Five years ago, Imamoglu overturned years of AK Party rule in Istanbul with the backing of a unified six-party opposition. But that fell apart in the wake of last year's presidential election defeat and the AK Party had high hopes of overturning his 2019 victory.

Ahead of Sunday's election in Istanbul, the vote was seen as too close to call, with the incumbent mayor facing a strong challenge from AK Party candidate Murat Kurum.

But the ruling party has been unable to shake off an economic crisis that has seen inflation rates of 67% and interest rates at 50%.

Erdogan's AK Party has had more success in areas of the south-east devastated by the February 2023 double earthquake. It is leading in the cities of Kahramanmaras and Gaziantep.

About 61 million Turkish voters were eligible to take part in Sunday's election and turnout was estimated at more than 76% across the country's 81 provinces.

Tankers Haul Russian Diesel to Brazil

According to Bloomberg tankers laden with millions of barrels of Russian diesel are floating off the coast of Brazil — with more on the way.

Ships holding at least 3.2 million barrels of diesel-type fuel from Russian ports are idling in waters off the world’s fifth largest country.

It’s not clear why the cargoes are getting held up. However, the glut is the latest sign of snarls in the delivery of petroleum from Russia at a time when US and UK sanctions are tightening.

Diesel cargoes are also being held in tankers in the Mediterranean and Gulf of Guinea, while crude is backing up outside Indian ports.

While the glut is notable — 3.2 million barrels would meet about two weeks of the Latin American country’s imports — there doesn’t appear to be a complete halt in the discharge of cargoes from Russia in Brazil. Of the vessels off the nation’s coast, at least two are Sovcomflot PJSC tankers.

There are also at least 3.3 million barrels of diesel currently being transported toward Brazil, much of it across the Atlantic. It seems unlikely traders would continue sending the cargoes if they weren’t able to unload.

Other vessels are signaling Brazil, but their movements suggest they may not be heading to the country anytime soon. The nation has also imported diesel-type fuel from the UAE and Kuwait this month.

 

Bowman demands removal of Netanyahu from office

Congressman Jamaal Bowman had choice words for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Saturday comments, calling him a maniac who needs to be removed from office. 

The progressive Democrat initially discussed the Biden administration transferring 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs, 500 MK82 500-pound bombs and 25 F-35A fighter jets to Israel without notifying lawmakers, an arms package reported exclusively by the Washington Post on Friday. 

Bowman said that Congress should have absolutely been notified. 

He then criticized Israel’s handling of the war and the number of civilian casualties in Gaza, and slammed Israel’s leader for being a barrier to getting peace in the Israel-Hamas war.

“The majority of Gaza has already been destroyed through acts of collective punishment by this maniac, Benjamin Netanyahu,” Bowman told MSNBC’s Alex Witt on Saturday. 

“I’m 100% with Senator Schumer. He needs to be removed. He is a blockade to a pathway to peace. And we need a ceasefire right now. That’s what we should be focused on humanitarian aid, not weapons.” 

Bowman, during his response, referenced Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s remarks from two weeks ago when he called for new elections in Israel and criticized Netanyahu over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. 

The progressive Democrat renewed calls for a ceasefire, increased delivery of aid and said the ongoing situation in Gaza is a humanitarian crisis. 

“We have hundreds of thousands of children starving to death in Gaza right now, as we speak, the majority of the American people support a permanent ceasefire,” Bowman said.

“The majority of my district supports a permanent ceasefire. We need a permanent ceasefire. We need to bring in hundreds of trucks that are five miles away from Gaza right now of aid, to save as many lives as possible. There’s a humanitarian crisis.” 

GCC unveils vision for regional security

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has launched its Vision for Regional Security during a ceremony at the group's General Secretariat in Riyadh. This landmark initiative, presented by Jasem Albudaiwi, Secretary General of the GCC, signifies a profound commitment to ethical values and unity, aiming to build a hopeful and prosperous future for the region.

The Vision for Regional Security, highlighted by Albudaiwi as more than just a political commitment, is founded on the principles of dialogue, cooperation, coordination, and respect for diverse perspectives. These principles are deemed essential for confronting challenges and ensuring the common security upon which the GCC's aspirations for a better future are based.

The ceremony, attended by senior officials from the foreign ministries of GCC countries, diplomats, and experts, marks a pivotal step toward achieving international security and peace.

The GCC's dedication to tackling political, security, and economic challenges both regionally and globally was reiterated, emphasizing the importance of collective action and sincere will in establishing lasting peace.

Albudaiwi outlined the vision's strategic objectives, which focus on preserving regional security, ensuring stability and prosperity, promoting international peace, and fostering economic and environmental sustainability. The vision comprises several pillars, including security and stability, economic development, and environmental and climate change, addressing a wide array of challenges from geopolitical shifts to cultural and social issues.

This vision represents a call to action for all parties to collaborate toward a secure and prosperous future, reinforcing the GCC's role as a reliable partner in political, security, and economic spheres on the global stage.

Global oil refining capacity at risk

More than a fifth of global oil refining capacity is at risk of closure, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie found in analysis published on Thursday, as gasoline margins weaken and the pressure to reduce carbon emissions mounts.

Of 465 refining assets analyzed, the consultancy ranked about 21% of 2023 global refining capacity at some risk of closure.

Europe and China house the greatest number of high-risk sites, putting about 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity in jeopardy, Wood Mac found, based on its estimate of net cash margins, cost of carbon emissions, ownership, environmental investment and strategic value of refineries.

There are 11 European sites that account for 45% of all high-risk plants.

About 30 European refineries have already shut down since 2009, data from industry body Concawe shows, with nearly 90 still in operation.

This spate of closures has been brought on by competition from newer and more complex plants in the Middle East and Asia as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gasoline margins are expected to weaken by the end of this decade as demand declines and sanctions on Russia ease while expected carbon taxes should also start to bite.

Operating costs could go up so much that "closure may be the only option", said Wood Mac senior oils and chemicals analyst Emma Fox.

Meanwhile, Nigeria's huge Dangote oil refinery could bring to an end decades-long gasoline trade from Europe to Africa worth US$17 billion a year, heaping pressure on European refineries already at risk of closure from heightened competition.

The Dangote refinery, with capacity of up to 650,000 bpd, began production in January but was not included in Wood Mac's analysis.

The seven high-risk sites in China are small-scale independent refineries. Sometimes called 'teapots', these refineries are subject to more stringent government regulations and compete with larger integrated sites that are typically state-owned and more complex.

Enough is Enough, Muslims must stop trading with United State and its allies, immediately

Since October 2023 Israel has killed nearly 35,000 people in Gaza, mostly women and children. It has been using munitions mainly supplied by the United States of America and its allies.

The US has also vetoed resolutions seeking ceasefire in Gaza.

Lately, the super power has approved sending more munitions to facilitate genocide by Israel in Gaza.

During these days Muslim countries have done nothing except requesting United States and its allies to request Israel to stop killing.

Enough is enough; the time has come for the joint army of Muslim countries to attack Israel.

If they are afraid of taking military action against Israel, they should suspend trade with the United States and its allies immediately, at the least.

On top priority Muslim countries should stop selling oil to United States and all those countries which are supplying munitions to Israel to kill Gazans  

Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index up 2.84%WoW

The week ended on March 29, 2024 witnessed bullish trend at Pakistan Stock Exchange. Overall, the first four trading days cumulatively added around 2,000 points pts, with the benchmark index closing at 67,005 points, up 2.84%WoW on Friday, following a slight profit-taking session noted on the last trading day of the week.

Positivity loomed over the successful last review of IMF’s SBA, the new incumbent government's steps and commitment towards reforms. A new tax regime ordered for retailers and wholesalers, piloting initially in major cities, aimed to broaden the tax base. While similar taxation measures have failed previously, if successful this time, these could set the stepping stone for tax base broadening.

With FTSE Russell retaining Pakistan in the secondary emerging market for the next six months, further optimism prevailed.

Inflation outlook also presented a positive stance, with March 2024 CPI expected at 20.6%YoY, turning current real interest rates into positive territory after 38 months.

GDP growth for 2QFY24 was reported at 1.0%YoY, supported by a 5% annual growth in the agriculture sector, but dragged down by a 0.8%YoY contraction in industrial activity.

On the political front, reconstituting economic councils/committees, with the exclusion of the finance minister from heading CCI and previously from ECC (which eventually reverted), is causing confusion among the investors and likely to cause some delays in initiating reforms.

Smuggling of petroleum products from Iran is on the rise again as indicated by OCAC and PALSP, which is likely to hit adversely local refineries.

Overall, market participation improved with daily traded volume averaging at 330.7 million shares as compared to 323.5 million shares a week ago, up 2.2%WoW.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Tax collection gap rose to whopping PKR 5.8 trillion, 2) Government borrowed PKR181.3 billion debt in a week; 3) M2 was up by PKR149.4 billion in a week, 4) foreign investors’ profit repatriation during 8 month of the current financial year rose 237%YoY to US$759.2 million and 5) Weekly SPI was almost flat.

Transport, Woollen and Tobacco were amongst the top performing sectors, while Jute, Leasing co., and Textile weaving were amongst the worst performers.

Major selling was recorded by Companies with a net sell of US$7.6 million. Insurance absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$9.0 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PTC, KTML, SCBPL, FFBL and THALL, while laggards included: SHEL, PGLC, PIBTL, ASL and FCEPL.

Emerging risks include additional taxation and increases in international prices. Policy rate story could again come into focus. Analysts expect the first rate cut in the final quarter of the current fiscal year.