GCC unveils vision for regional security

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has launched its Vision for Regional Security during a ceremony at the group's General Secretariat in Riyadh. This landmark initiative, presented by Jasem Albudaiwi, Secretary General of the GCC, signifies a profound commitment to ethical values and unity, aiming to build a hopeful and prosperous future for the region.

The Vision for Regional Security, highlighted by Albudaiwi as more than just a political commitment, is founded on the principles of dialogue, cooperation, coordination, and respect for diverse perspectives. These principles are deemed essential for confronting challenges and ensuring the common security upon which the GCC's aspirations for a better future are based.

The ceremony, attended by senior officials from the foreign ministries of GCC countries, diplomats, and experts, marks a pivotal step toward achieving international security and peace.

The GCC's dedication to tackling political, security, and economic challenges both regionally and globally was reiterated, emphasizing the importance of collective action and sincere will in establishing lasting peace.

Albudaiwi outlined the vision's strategic objectives, which focus on preserving regional security, ensuring stability and prosperity, promoting international peace, and fostering economic and environmental sustainability. The vision comprises several pillars, including security and stability, economic development, and environmental and climate change, addressing a wide array of challenges from geopolitical shifts to cultural and social issues.

This vision represents a call to action for all parties to collaborate toward a secure and prosperous future, reinforcing the GCC's role as a reliable partner in political, security, and economic spheres on the global stage.

Global oil refining capacity at risk

More than a fifth of global oil refining capacity is at risk of closure, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie found in analysis published on Thursday, as gasoline margins weaken and the pressure to reduce carbon emissions mounts.

Of 465 refining assets analyzed, the consultancy ranked about 21% of 2023 global refining capacity at some risk of closure.

Europe and China house the greatest number of high-risk sites, putting about 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity in jeopardy, Wood Mac found, based on its estimate of net cash margins, cost of carbon emissions, ownership, environmental investment and strategic value of refineries.

There are 11 European sites that account for 45% of all high-risk plants.

About 30 European refineries have already shut down since 2009, data from industry body Concawe shows, with nearly 90 still in operation.

This spate of closures has been brought on by competition from newer and more complex plants in the Middle East and Asia as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gasoline margins are expected to weaken by the end of this decade as demand declines and sanctions on Russia ease while expected carbon taxes should also start to bite.

Operating costs could go up so much that "closure may be the only option", said Wood Mac senior oils and chemicals analyst Emma Fox.

Meanwhile, Nigeria's huge Dangote oil refinery could bring to an end decades-long gasoline trade from Europe to Africa worth US$17 billion a year, heaping pressure on European refineries already at risk of closure from heightened competition.

The Dangote refinery, with capacity of up to 650,000 bpd, began production in January but was not included in Wood Mac's analysis.

The seven high-risk sites in China are small-scale independent refineries. Sometimes called 'teapots', these refineries are subject to more stringent government regulations and compete with larger integrated sites that are typically state-owned and more complex.

Enough is Enough, Muslims must stop trading with United State and its allies, immediately

Since October 2023 Israel has killed nearly 35,000 people in Gaza, mostly women and children. It has been using munitions mainly supplied by the United States of America and its allies.

The US has also vetoed resolutions seeking ceasefire in Gaza.

Lately, the super power has approved sending more munitions to facilitate genocide by Israel in Gaza.

During these days Muslim countries have done nothing except requesting United States and its allies to request Israel to stop killing.

Enough is enough; the time has come for the joint army of Muslim countries to attack Israel.

If they are afraid of taking military action against Israel, they should suspend trade with the United States and its allies immediately, at the least.

On top priority Muslim countries should stop selling oil to United States and all those countries which are supplying munitions to Israel to kill Gazans  

Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index up 2.84%WoW

The week ended on March 29, 2024 witnessed bullish trend at Pakistan Stock Exchange. Overall, the first four trading days cumulatively added around 2,000 points pts, with the benchmark index closing at 67,005 points, up 2.84%WoW on Friday, following a slight profit-taking session noted on the last trading day of the week.

Positivity loomed over the successful last review of IMF’s SBA, the new incumbent government's steps and commitment towards reforms. A new tax regime ordered for retailers and wholesalers, piloting initially in major cities, aimed to broaden the tax base. While similar taxation measures have failed previously, if successful this time, these could set the stepping stone for tax base broadening.

With FTSE Russell retaining Pakistan in the secondary emerging market for the next six months, further optimism prevailed.

Inflation outlook also presented a positive stance, with March 2024 CPI expected at 20.6%YoY, turning current real interest rates into positive territory after 38 months.

GDP growth for 2QFY24 was reported at 1.0%YoY, supported by a 5% annual growth in the agriculture sector, but dragged down by a 0.8%YoY contraction in industrial activity.

On the political front, reconstituting economic councils/committees, with the exclusion of the finance minister from heading CCI and previously from ECC (which eventually reverted), is causing confusion among the investors and likely to cause some delays in initiating reforms.

Smuggling of petroleum products from Iran is on the rise again as indicated by OCAC and PALSP, which is likely to hit adversely local refineries.

Overall, market participation improved with daily traded volume averaging at 330.7 million shares as compared to 323.5 million shares a week ago, up 2.2%WoW.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Tax collection gap rose to whopping PKR 5.8 trillion, 2) Government borrowed PKR181.3 billion debt in a week; 3) M2 was up by PKR149.4 billion in a week, 4) foreign investors’ profit repatriation during 8 month of the current financial year rose 237%YoY to US$759.2 million and 5) Weekly SPI was almost flat.

Transport, Woollen and Tobacco were amongst the top performing sectors, while Jute, Leasing co., and Textile weaving were amongst the worst performers.

Major selling was recorded by Companies with a net sell of US$7.6 million. Insurance absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$9.0 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PTC, KTML, SCBPL, FFBL and THALL, while laggards included: SHEL, PGLC, PIBTL, ASL and FCEPL.

Emerging risks include additional taxation and increases in international prices. Policy rate story could again come into focus. Analysts expect the first rate cut in the final quarter of the current fiscal year.

China holds Boao Forum for Asia

The Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2024 opened on Thursday in Boao town located next to the eastern coastal city of Qionghai in Hainan Province, in the South China Sea.

Ban Ki-moon, chairman of the BFA and former United Nations Secretary General, was the first speaker in the opening ceremony of the conference.

In his address, Ban Ki-moon reviewed the challenges facing the world today and encouraged the participants to think about reality with a dialectical perspective and to collectively create the future through responsible actions.

Ban Ki-moon concluded that the urgent climate crisis has led to a historic consensus at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference, but the reality requires the world to take more effective actions to make further progress.

He expressed concern about the uncertain trends in geopolitical and geo-economic spheres, as well as the restructuring of global supply, trade, and investment flows, while inclusive globalization is being sacrificed.

Recalling his years of work at the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon mentioned that he has witnessed both good times and difficult periods. In the "good times," the world enjoyed the benefits of global peace dividends and rapid globalization, while in the "bad days," the world divided into opposing camps and blocs.

He emphasized that under no circumstances should we return to the "bad days," and the only way forward is unity, cooperation, multilateralism, globalization, and an open world economy.

Ban Ki-moon stated that global crises compel us to work together. We face common challenges and should share responsibility. He called upon leaders from Asia and around the globe to step forward, speak truth to power, and take decisive actions, to shape the future through words and deeds, and to live up to the high expectations of the people.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Sri Lankan Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, Samdech Techo Hun Sen, the president of the Supreme Privy Council to the King of the Kingdom of Cambodia, Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of Dominica Roosevelt Skerrit, Daren Tang, director general of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), and Mathias Cormann, Secretary General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) were among the other speakers of the ceremony.

The Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), initiated by 25 Asian countries and Australia (increased to 28 in 2006), is a non-profit organization that hosts high-level forums for leaders from government, business and academia in Asia and other continents to share their vision on the most pressing issues in this region and the world at large.

BFA is modelled on the World Economic Forum held annually in Davos, Switzerland. Its fixed address is in Boao, Hainan Province, China, which has been the permanent venue for the annual conference since 2002.

Vietnam: Exports boost GDP growth to 5.66%

Vietnam's gross domestic product grew 5.66% in the first quarter from a year earlier as exports boomed. This was despite higher shipping costs due to turmoil in the Red Sea.

Growth in the January-March quarter was faster than the expansion of 3.41% in the corresponding period last year, but slower than the fourth-quarter growth of 6.72%. First-quarter numbers are generally lower because of festival holidays.

The Southeast Asian nation, a manufacturing hub and key exporter of smartphones, electronics and garments, is seeking to shore up business activities after missing last year's growth target on weak global demand and brief power shortages. It has set a target of 6.0% to 6.5% GDP growth this year.

The manufacturing and construction sector grew 6.28%, while the services sector expanded 6.12% in the quarter from a year earlier, the General Statistics Office (GSO) said in a report.

Goods exports from Vietnam grew sharply in the quarter, despite Red Sea shipping disruptions, which official estimates show boosted costs by 55% to 73% for cargoes from the country.

Goods exports in the quarter grew 17% from a year earlier to US$93.06 billion, while imports were up 13.9% at US$84.98 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of US$8.08 billion.

Shipments of electronics rose 30% from a year earlier, while smartphone exports increased 10% and garments 7.9%, the GSO said.

Industrial production in the quarter rose 5.7% from a year earlier, the GSO said, adding that March consumer prices rose 3.97% from a year earlier and retail sales in the January-March period rose 8.2%.

Last week, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh reassured foreign investors there would be no repeat of last year's power shortages for their factories, as Vietnam ramps up coal imports.

Vietnam's electricity output in the first quarter grew 11.4% from a year earlier to 65.5 billion kWh, the GSO said.

 

Dar included, Aurangzeb excluded from CCI

Reportedly, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has excluded Muhammad Aurangzeb, Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue as a member of the Council of Common Interests (CCI) and included Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ishaq Dar. This has been done for the first time in the history of Council.

In the past finance minister was not always included in the CCI, yet energy minister and planning minister were included because they deal with matters of concern with provinces.

According to the notification issued by the Secretariat of Council of Common Interests on March 25, 2024, in exercise of powers conferred under Article 153 of the Constitution of Pakistan, the president on the advice of prime minister, has constituted eight Member Council of Common Interests, with effect from March 21, 2024 that include Prime Minister (Chairman); Chief Minister Balochistan (Member); Chief Minster, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Member); Chief Minister, Punjab (Member); Chief Minister, Sindh (Member); Ishaq Dar, Minister for Foreign Affairs; Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Minister for Defence and  Engr Amir Muqam, Minister for States& Frontier Region (SAFRAN).

The new notification supersedes Secretariat of CCI’s notification of January 9, 2024 issued during the term of caretaker government. Caretaker prime minister included the then Finance Minister, Dr Shamsha Akhtar, Minister for Privatisation, Fawad Hasan Fawad and Minister for Law and Justice, Ahmad Irfan Aslam as Members of the CCI.

Analysts argued that presence of finance minister and law minister in Council of Common Interests is critical as these two portfolios are required to respond to different queries raised by the provinces during the meeting.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also conferred control of Cabinet Committee on Privatisation (CCoP) to Ishaq Dar against past practice of giving it to the Finance Minister.

The caretaker government of Anwaarul Haq Kakar gave the chairmanship of CCoP to Privatisation Minister Fawad Hasan Fawad aimed at expediting actions on decisions of PC Board.

Earlier, Cabinet Division has issued a notification of Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, under the chairmanship of Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif himself. However, after massive criticism from the media, the notification was withdrawn and a new one issued giving the chairmanship to the finance minister.