Saturday, 16 March 2024

Israel approves plan to attack Rafah

Israel on Friday approved a potential assault on the Gaza city of Rafah while also keeping ceasefire hopes alive with plans to send another delegation to Qatar for talks on a possible hostage deal with Islamist militant group Hamas.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said he had ok'd a plan to attack the city on the southern edge of the shattered Palestinian enclave where more than half of its 2.3 million residents are sheltering after five months of war.

Global allies and critics have urged Netanyahu to hold off attacking Rafah, fearing mass civilian casualties. But Israel says it is one of the last strongholds of Hamas whom it has pledged to eliminate and that residents will be evacuated.

In Washington, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said the US had not seen the Rafah plan, but would like to. He told a regular briefing a Hamas ceasefire-for-hostages proposal was within the bounds of what was possible and expressed cautious optimism about it.

Hamas has presented a Gaza ceasefire proposal to mediators and the US, which includes release of Israeli hostages in exchange for freedom for Palestinian prisoners, 100 of whom are serving life sentences.

A statement from Netanyahu's office on the Rafah attack plan said Hamas' demands for the release of hostages remained unrealistic, but an Israeli delegation would still head to Doha once the security cabinet had discussed its position.

The Israeli statement said the Israeli Defence Force was preparing operationally and for the evacuation of the population of Rafah.

It gave no time frame and there was no immediate evidence of extra preparations on the ground.

Negotiators failed this week to reach a ceasefire agreement in time for the Ramadan Muslim holy month. Washington and Arab mediators are still determined to reach a deal to head off an assault on Rafah and let in food to stave off starvation.

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri accused Netanyahu of "manoeuvring ... to conduct more crimes of genocide."

"He isn't interested in reaching an agreement," he told Reuters.

Israel has rejected claims of genocide, saying it is purely focused on destroying all Hamas fighters.

There is increasing friction between Washington and Israel, which officials in President Joe Biden's administration say is waging war with too little care for civilians.

US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish elected US official and a leader of Biden's Democratic Party, called on Thursday for Israelis to replace Netanyahu, whose hardline policies he said were wrecking Israel's international standing.

In the centre of Gaza City late on Friday, an Israeli air strike destroyed a seven-floor residential building, killing or wounding several people, the spokesman of the civil emergency service there said. He said emergency workers were searching the rubble for casualties.

 

 

Friday, 15 March 2024

US announces sanctions against Israeli settlers

The United States has announced sanctions against three more Israeli settlers and, for the first time, two farming outposts, as part of new measures by Washington and London to stop the violent displacement of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

Fares Samamreh may not carry a gun, but he has a global superpower defending him. He's still losing the fight.

A Palestinian sheep farmer on the sun-tinged slopes of the South Hebron Hills in the occupied West Bank, his battle with his neighbor, an Israeli settler called Yinon Levy, has drawn both the US and the UK into the dispute.

"Yinon Levy came here three years ago and started bothering me," Fares said, his head wrapped in a piece of white cotton, his eyes narrowed in a permanent squint against the sun.

"Before the war [in Gaza] it was the usual thing; they would come with drones. But a few days after October 07, it became serious. They all had guns. They started coming to us day and night. I have little kids, some of them are four and five years old."

Fares said Yinon was one of a group of local Israeli settlers who would regularly come to harass his sheep with their dogs and weapons, and even, he says, to assault his family.

"They destroyed water tanks, closed down roads, they fire at the sheep," he said. "He told my wife if we didn't leave here, we'd all be killed."

He said when his wife then swore at him, Yinon Levy hit her with the butt of his gun.

Soon afterward, Fares and his family left their village of Zanuta. Activists say it's one of four communities around the settler's farm that have been abandoned by their residents.

Yinon has denied acting violently toward Palestinians in the area -- and said he didn't own a gun until very recently.

But he's the subject of sanctions from both the US and the UK.

The road to Yinon's farm is straight out of a children's picture-book; a narrow path that winds back and forth up a steep hill, slopes and valleys dropping away to the horizon on either side.

At the top, a spacious bungalow stands next to a large shed, full of bleating sheep smothering the strains of pop music from a radio.

"We're safeguarding these lands to ensure they remain under Jewish ownership," Yinon said. "When there is a Jewish presence, then there is no Arab presence. We keep a watchful eye on the land, ensuring that no unauthorized construction takes place."

Most countries deem the settlements, which are built on land captured by Israel in 1967 in the Middle East War, to be illegal under international law, although Israel disagrees. The settler outposts are also illegal under Israeli law.

The UK said that Yinon and another man had "used physical aggression, threatened families at gunpoint, and destroyed property as part of a targeted and calculated effort to displace Palestinian communities".

Yinon denied the allegations, and said that the Israeli government was on his side.

"I'm not worried," he told the BBC. "This is not against me personally - it's against those who obstruct the creation of a Palestinian state. There's no legal process against me [in Israel]. Here, everything is fine."

Both the UK and the US say there is a threshold of evidence that must be met - but neither have made that evidence public and declined to share it with the BBC.

We sent Yinon a video appearing to show him on Palestinian land, approaching activists with a snarling dog. He said it was misleading, and that he was defending his flock.

We sent him another video apparently showing him entering another Palestinian village with a gun last October. He declined to comment.

The sanctions came after a surge in violence in the West Bank, following the October 07 Hamas attacks and Israel's war in Gaza.

The UN says violence by Israeli settlers included physical attacks and death threats, and that the number of Palestinians displaced from their homes last year doubled to 1,539 - with more than 80% of them leaving after October 07.

The UK has said Israel is failing to act, and has described "an environment of near total impunity for settler extremists in the West Bank".

Yinon said that he had received support from Israeli politicians.

"Many called and encouraged us," he said. "Everyone said that when the bad people are against you, you must be doing something right."

One of the politicians who publicly backed Yinon in the wake of the sanctions was Zvi Sukkot of the ultranationalist Religious Zionism party - a settler himself.

He said that settler violence was a "marginal phenomenon" and that those like Levy were the victims of conspiracies.

"When we have a functioning judicial system in Israel, we don't want our allies to say, 'we'll do the job for you'," he said.

"If there was evidence against Yinon Levy, he would be in Israeli prison. Who is Britain to come and say, 'we are smarter than Israeli intelligence'?"

The Israeli police commander responsible for investigating complaints in the West Bank told Sukkot's parliamentary committee this week that half the complaints filed about settler violence there were false, and that they originated from "radical left-wing organizations in Tel Aviv".

Against this backdrop, sanctions on a handful of individual settlers have not shifted Israeli policies in the West Bank, but they are having a financial impact.

Yinon's Israeli bank account was frozen last month.

Some of those currently under US and UK sanctions have used crowdfunding to finance projects for their area - including one for a synagogue and educational centre at another hilltop outpost called Moshe's Farm.

Its owner, Moshe Sharvit, was sanctioned along with Yinon Levy last month.

On Thursday the US expanded sanctions to cover several new targets, including the farm itself - putting this kind of funding at risk.

These sanctions may be more symbolic than substantial, but they signal American displeasure - both to Israel's leaders, and to the parts of President Biden's Democratic base who have been dismayed by images of the war in Gaza, in an election year.

The chairman of the local Yesha (settlers) Council, Shlomo Ne'eman, called it "a disgusting phenomenon" and said the West Bank was being used as a scapegoat.

"I think more than anything, what drives the response of the UK [and] the US is the fear of one settler attack that goes 'out of control'," said Yehuda Shaul, founder of the Ofek Centre, a think tank which campaigns to end Israel's occupation.

"The West Bank [then] erupts like a volcano. And we have another front, as if Gaza is not enough, and the road to regional war is almost unstoppable then."

Two sheep farmers in the occupied West Bank - one backed by a superpower, the other by the Israeli state. If the lifestyle here is simple, the politics are complicated.

From Yinon's hilltop farm, you can clearly see the ruins of Zanuta perched on the next hill, with the home Fares Samamreh left months ago.

Many of the houses are ravaged - roofs and furniture taken by their owners into exile; walls smashed by settlers to prevent them returning, activists say.

The deserted village is slowly being taken over by vast banks of wild mallow.

On a post near the entrance, a large Star of David has been scrawled in blue paint.

Settlers here point to attacks by Palestinians, and say they are scared. But it's Palestinians who are leaving.

Iran-Pakistan to sign Free Trade Agreement

Iranian Ambassador Dr Reza Amiri Moghadam has indicated that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is likely to be finalized in the upcoming visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Pakistan.

Addressing the business community during his visit to the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI), the Iranian envoy said the FTA would increase mutual trade and several bilateral economic and trade agreements would also be signed during the visit.

He also said that the two countries need to have strong air, maritime and sea links, which will strengthen the economic relations and Pakistan, will also be connected to regional and global trade.

The ambassador emphasized the closeness of maritime links, especially Karachi and Gwadar and Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports and said that Gwadar and Chabahar should be declared as sister ports.

The current bilateral trade volume paltry US$2.5 billion. Pakistan and Iran can fulfill 70% of each other’s needs by engaging in mutual trade, just as Iran imports halal meat, Pakistan can do a lot of work in Iran in this sector.

“After the FTA and bilateral agreements for the promotion of mutual trade, there is a strong possibility that the mutual trade between Pakistan and Iran would reach US$5 billion in the next few years,” he added.

The envoy added that the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline was a significant project, which would benefit both the domestic and industrial sectors of Pakistan.

“Iran is serious about resolving Pakistan’s energy problems and that is why Tehran completed the gas pipeline project for US$1 billion in 2009 so that Pakistan could meet its energy needs,” he said, adding that it was essential that the project is completed at the earliest.

He added that Iran was already trading in gas and the energy sector with Turkiye, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, therefore Pakistan can also follow the procedure adopted by these countries.

He acknowledged that the banking channel between Pakistan and Iran was a serious issue, but Iran has banking links with Turkiye, Bahrain and Iraq.

 

Bangladesh offers lucrative deals for offshore gas exploration

Bangladesh is ending a yearlong hiatus on oil and gas exploration in the Bay of Bengal as it scrambles to plug dwindling energy reserves that could run out in under a decade.

On Sunday, the South Asian nation opened bidding to dozens of international companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and China's Sinopec, on 24 offshore blocks spread across 15 deep and nine shallow waters.

The bidding process, which ends an eight-year pause on exploration tenders, will be open for six months as Bangladesh grapples with energy shortages and struggles to pay for imported fuel and gas from its fast-shrinking dollar reserves.

The country faced a spike in fuel prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, forcing it to turn to the International Monetary Fund last year for a US$4.7 billion bailout package.

Despite being seen as a promising source of natural gas, Bangladesh has long struggled with lagging exploration, with just 18 wells drilled in the past 12 years, according to state energy company PetroBangla. Just four new gas fields were discovered over that period.

Analysts said a key reason was international companies exiting Bangladesh over unfavorable terms in production-sharing contracts (PSCs), which set how the government and a company will share risks, costs and profits from tapping natural resources.

The American energy giant ConocoPhillips terminated a contract in 2015, citing unfavorable terms, Australia's Santos and Singapore's KrisEnergy exited exploration projects in 2020 after incurring losses.

However, PetroBangla said new contracts will carry more favorable conditions.

"We have amended our last PSC, and the new contract model has attractive terms for the international companies," Chairman Zanendra Nath Sarker told Nikkei Asia.

The new contracts will offer a revenue-sharing model, a 5% higher share of production and better pricing mechanisms, he added.

"I think it's a win-win situation for both the parties," Sarker said.

Revenue-sharing contracts could work out better for the country, which didn't benefit from previous profit-sharing agreements, said Badrul Imam, a professor at the University of Dhaka's geology department.

"[They] led to unfavorable outcomes for Bangladesh due to cost-recovery provisions," he said. "This new PSC has already generated interest among many reputed companies. We need to understand that unless we tap the potential of our offshore gas reserves, we will face a severe energy crisis within the next 10 years."

Bangladesh's economic boom has been powered by natural gas, the main source of electricity generation for decades. But dwindling reserves from older fields and a growing reliance on imported LNG are making the country increasingly vulnerable to external factors affecting energy supply.

Over the past two decades, Bangladesh consumed about 13 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas, but only about 2 trillion cubic feet of new gas reserves were discovered over that period. The country's existing gas reserves are likely to be exhausted by 2033 in the absence of new discoveries.

Bangladesh's oil and gas exploration efforts in the Bay of Bengal also pale in comparison to neighboring India and Myanmar, which have both made frequent gas discoveries in the waterway.

The government's hesitance to explore these potentially rich offshore reserves "hindered domestic production and favored private businesses involved in LNG imports," Imam said.

Development of the energy sector has long lagged that of the power sector, said Shafiqul Alam, the lead energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a US-based think tank.

Bangladesh "provided more attention on the power sector capacity expansion" but could not step up its "efforts on enhancing energy security," Alam said.

Despite resolving maritime boundary disputes with Myanmar and India over the past decade, Bangladesh has yet to ramp up offshore gas exploration ‑ even as Myanmar made promising discoveries bordering Bangladesh's territory in the Bay of Bengal.

Niaz Asadullah, a professor of economics at Monash University Malaysia, said geopolitical considerations likely influenced the timeline of developments in Bangladesh's energy sector.

"The incumbent government increasingly favored non-Western companies, particularly when it prepared for a third term in power," Asadullah said, adding that the number of contracts awarded to the Russian state-owned company Gazprom for drilling gas wells had doubled in the past few years.

Meanwhile, Dhaka opened the door for more domestic power generation, transmission and distribution, awarding contracts worth at least US$4.5 billion to private and state-run Indian companies.

In January, Bangladesh's ruling Awami League and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won a fourth consecutive term.

"With the national election concluded, the government now feels well-placed to navigate the politics of new lucrative energy sector contracts with interested regional and international economic powers," Asadullah said.

Aid ship reaches Gaza coast

According to Reuters, the first ship carrying food aid reached the coast of the Gaza Strip on Friday, where hopes for a ceasefire to rescue the population from starvation suffered a new blow after Israel rejected the latest truce counter-proposal from Hamas.

The charity World Central Kitchen (WCK) aims to deliver the aid on a temporary jetty, though precise details of how supplies would reach shore have not been made clear.

If the new sea route is successful, it may help to ease the hunger crisis affecting Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of people face malnourishment and hospitals in the worst-stricken northern areas have reported children dying of starvation.

However, aid agencies have repeatedly said that plans to bring in aid by sea and through air drops will not be enough to satisfy the territory's vast needs.

Since October 2023 the Israeli assaults have killed more than 31,000 people and driven nearly the entire 2.3 million population of Gaza from their homes.

The United Nations says all of Gaza's 2.3 million people are suffering from a food crisis and a quarter of them are on the precipice of famine, especially in the north.

Israel, which sealed off all land routes into Gaza apart from two crossings on the territory's southern edge, denies blame for hunger and says aid agencies should do a better job distributing food.

The agencies say they need better access and security, both of which are the responsibility of Israeli forces that have blockaded the strip and stormed its cities.

The distribution of the limited aid that arrives has been chaotic and frequently violent under the watch of Israeli tanks.

In one of the worst reported incidents yet, Gaza health authorities reported at least 21 people had been killed and 150 wounded on Thursday night, blaming Israeli forces for opening fire into a crowd queuing up for food at a road junction near Gaza City.

There are increasing signs of friction between Washington and its close ally Israel over the conduct of the war, which officials in President Joe Biden's administration say is being waged with too little care for Palestinian civilians.

US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the highest ranking Jewish official in the United States and a leader of Biden's Democratic Party, called on Thursday for Israelis to hold an election and replace Netanyahu.

He described Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace who was destroying Israel's international standing. "Israel cannot survive if it becomes a pariah," Schumer said.

Netanyahu's Likud Party said his policies had widespread public support. "Senator Schumer is expected to respect Israel's elected government and not undermine it," it said. "This is always true, and even more so in wartime."

 

Thursday, 14 March 2024

Donald Lu to testify before Congress panel

The US House Foreign Affairs Com­mittee has tasked its Subcommittee on the Mid­dle East, Africa, and Cen­tral Asia with conducting a hearing on the future of democracy in Pakistan, scheduled for March 20.

The hearing will also delve into the dynamics of US-Pakistan relations following the February 08, 2024 general elections.

Donald Lu, the Assis­tant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, will be the sole witness for the hearing. Lu’s alleged involvement in the cipher controversy adds significance to his testimony.

The PTI and its leader, Imran Khan, allege that Lu threatened to destabilize the PTI government during a March 2022 meeting with then Pakistani ambassador in Washing­ton, Asad Majeed Khan.

The issue is frequently brought up during US State Department news briefings by journalists from both Pakistan and the US. The department consistently dismisses these allegations as unfounded.

The decision to have Lu attend the hearing un­­derscores the departm­e­nt’s desire to resolve the controversy by providing clarification on its stance.

In a statement from Houston, Texas, the PTI’s US chapter claimed that persistent efforts by Pakistani Americans led to the much-anticipated announcement of a Congressional hearing on this.

This bipartisan hearing is expected to draw significant attendance from both Democratic and Repub­lican legislators.

 

Supply Lines: Red Sea Update

According to the Bloomberg, Red Sea shipping diversions may last a few more months, and some people think they could go on even longer.

That’s among the takeaways from the CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, the world’s No. 5 container line, in an interview Thursday on Bloomberg TV. Rolf Habben Jansen was speaking as the Hamburg, Germany-based company announced 2023 earnings that showed a steep drop in revenue and profits from a year earlier.

Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have disrupted supply chains since mid-December 2023, forcing carriers to change routes and redo schedules — adjustments that have helped absorb excess capacity.

As a result, they’re burning more fuel and taking longer to deliver, with some needing to purchase more containers given the extended routes. The added costs are getting past along to customers.

The longer routes around southern Africa initially boosted spot container rates but those are coming down, Jansen said. “The services are stabilizing, which also means that the market is getting calmer.”

He indicated, though, that there’s no telling when the Red Sea will be safe enough to transit again.

“We hope that we’re going to be able to go back through in a couple of months,” Jansen said. “But I know there are also people that think that it will last quite a while longer.”

In the medium term, excess capacity may return to weigh on freight rates. Hapag-Lloyd expects the market to remain difficult for carriers given the large number of ship deliveries this year, Jansen said in the company’s 2023 annual report.

Sharing that view was Zim Integrated Shipping CEO Eli Glickman, who spoke on a conference call on Wednesday. “Once the Red Sea crisis is resolved, we will likely revert to the supply-demand scenario that began to play out in ‘23, setting up a more challenging third and fourth quarter of 2024 for the industry, including us,” he said.

It’s not just the shipping companies facing a tough environment. World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told Bloomberg in an interview that “the risks are all on the downside.”

But corporate supply chains have gotten more resilient and flexible. Here’s a rundown of comments that a few big shippers and a major port operator have offered this week:

Samsonite CFO Reza Taleghani: “So if you think about things you read about in the news, shipping delays, Red Sea, et cetera, we are just fine. We have inventory exactly where we need it to be. All of our facilities, even if there is a week or two delays, not that big of a deal.”

Adidas CEO Bjorn Gulden: “We have a little bit of headwind in freight in the first half because of the Red Sea situation, and as you know, if the freight companies have a chance to do something they increase prices. That should normalize and then the rest of everything that has to do with margin is going in the right direction.”

Williams-Sonoma CEO Laura Alber: “When a problem comes along, they’re real. The Red Sea disruption is pretty terrible. However, it is not costing us any more money. So far it is costing us about 10 days of delivery, give or take. And as I mentioned last time, we padded the deliveries to our customers once we heard about it, so we didn't disappoint them.”

DP World Group Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem: “Despite the uncertain start to 2024 with the ongoing Red Sea crisis, our portfolio has continued to demonstrate resilience. The outlook remains uncertain due to the challenging geopolitical and economic environment.”