Iran: Peace in its neighborhood

On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held talks with several high-ranking officials from around the world, to discuss various regional and international issues.

During a meeting with Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan, Amir Abdollahian stated that Tehran is an advocate of peace in the Caucasus region. 

Referring to his recent trip to Yerevan and his meetings and discussions with the Armenian foreign minister and the secretary of the country’s National Security Council, the Iranian foreign minister said, “Armenia has a significant place in Iran’s neighborhood policy.”

Amir Abdollahian pointed out that the ties between the two countries are strong, saying the bilateral ties are advancing. He said boosting the ties would serve the interests of both nations.

The Iranian foreign minister highlighted the importance of preserving the security and stability in the Caucasus region and said Iran has always supported the peace talks between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Amir Abdollahian held an extensive meeting with his Georgian counterpart Ilia Darchiashvili.

Expressing his satisfaction with the meeting, the Iranian foreign minister hailed the old and strong relations between the officials and people of both countries.

Amir Abdollahian said the promotion of ties with Georgia is one of Iran’s priorities and further stated that Tehran cares about the security in the Caucasus and Georgia.

He sounded upbeat that the relations between the two countries would be developed without any restrictions.

The Iranian foreign minister underlined the necessity to rely on regional solutions for the problems in the region, explaining that the security issues of the region are tied and related to each other.

Another person the Iranian diplomat convened with was Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Faisal bin Farhan.

In the meeting, Amir Abdollahian and bin Farhan exchanged views over bilateral issues such as economic and trade cooperation.

The two top diplomats also discussed other issues of mutual interest such as Palestine’s developments and the latest state of the war in Gaza.

The Iranian foreign minister outlined the developments in Gaza and the crimes of the Zionist regime with US support, stressing Iran's support for efforts to prevent the expansion of the war and for the restoration of stability and peace in the region.

Amir Abdollahian also referred to Iran's efforts to dispel some concerns in the region and the world, including Iran's efforts to put in place mechanisms to ensure energy security.

 

Eroding US hegemony in the Middle East

Over the past century, United States established itself as an imperialist power of the world's seas and international waters. A major element of the US hegemony in West Asia is built on its global maritime presence and naval bases. 

Experts believe that the longer the massacres against Palestinian civilians in the enclave continue, the ripple effect will be felt by the US hegemony in the region, particularly in the Red Sea.

It has the world's most formidable aircraft carrier fleet, which, at times, can be found sailing in the South China Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and many other places far beyond the US borders. 

When the US warships were targeted by Yemen's Ansarullah in the Red Sea, it was viewed as an embarrassment, perhaps more so than its humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. 

When Ansarullah began its military operations against Israeli and Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea in support of Gaza, which has now expanded to include US ships in the waterway, the movement sent a message to the US that it was not the masters of these seas. 

On the morning of January 12, US warships launched 150 bombing assaults on Yemen in addition to a follow-up attack on a radar facility 24 hours later. 

Since then, Ansarullah has fired a missile at a US navy destroyer, while targeting and damaging more Israeli and US vessels with missiles and drones in the Red and Arabian seas. 

Just like the Israeli army recklessly rushed into the war on Gaza and now finds itself stuck in the enclave, the US (backed by Britain) also made a rash decision to attack Yemen and now finds itself bogged down in a battle with Ansarullah. 

The initial bombardment of Yemen, despite Washington claiming it was a one-off attack, has proven to be serious threat.  

To protect its image, the US Central Command has announced more strikes on Ansarullah positions as standing back, holding fire, and doing nothing would be a major embarrassment for President Joe Biden. 

The question, that everybody has been asking, is whether the US can afford to sustain its bombing campaigns on Yemen. 

The evidence shows that it can attack Yemen but will fail to restrain Ansarullah from launching more military operations against Israeli and now US vessels in the Red Sea or the Sea of Aden. 

Washington had the easier choice of informing the Israeli regime to cease its indiscriminate airstrikes on Gaza but failed to do so. 

It now finds itself in a battle with Ansarullah. Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder has been vague over the level of damage his department believes it has inflicted on the Sanaa government's capacity to launch missiles and drones. 

It is important to point out that Ansarullah survived (and effectively triumphed) eight years of war led by the US which began in March 2015. 

The vast majority of bombs dropped on Ansarullah during this period were US-made munitions. Throughout this time, Ansarullah staged its own attacks against Saudi targets, bypassing US-made defense systems. 

The popular movement and government in Sana'a, which controls most of Yemen, has also upgraded its military technology, capacities, and tactics. It can launch missiles at Israeli and US ships from the back of modified trucks. 

These modified vehicles are very easy to move around and have left experts questioning if US warships stationed in the Red Sea will start going after trucks in Yemen. 

The US can continue bombing Yemen and Ansarullah positions for a long time, but history suggests that Ansarullah can also retain its ability to close the Red and Arabian seas to Israeli and the US shipping for a very long time as well. 

Ansarullah didn't become so popular if it had not been for the vast support its government receives back at home in Yemen.

On Thursday the movement’s leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, called on the Yemeni people to go out on Friday in their millions to rally in support of Palestine, and participate in the funeral of the "martyrs of the American-British aggression". 

He also said it was a great honor to be in direct support of the Palestinians in Gaza and in confrontation with the Israelis, Americans and the British. 

Others pointed out, "The United States' classification (relisting Ansarullah as a terrorist organization) targeting the Yemeni people and serving the interests of the Zionist entity will not affect Yemen's position towards Palestine." 

The question for the US and President Biden, in particular, is how far is he willing to go against a defiant Ansarullah. Is he enthusiastic to open a new front in the Israeli war on Gaza and escalate already high tensions in the region? 

Analysts have also speculated whether Ansarullah will expand its operations against regional US naval bases or if Biden will tell Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end Israel’s massacres against Palestinian women and children in Gaza, allowing the Red Sea to return to its normal business. 

Israel: Emergency Government Inching Towards Collapse

As reported by The Jerusalem Post, Americans have realized that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is incapacitated because of the political situation he is in. Netanyahu has even gone as far as to conceal his transition to Stage 3 of the war not only from his own war cabinet, but also from the general public. 

Netanyahu’s political predicament is already straining the Biden administration’s patience, with a growing sense that they are providing considerable support without receiving anything from him in return.

While the Americans are compelled to take Netanyahu’s political affairs under consideration, he, in turn, is unwilling to extend the same goodwill gesture toward the Democratic candidate currently residing in the White House, who is facing a challenging and tumultuous reelection campaign.

There is a reason why John Kirby, the US’s National Security Council spokesperson, stated this week that Israel has already shifted to a low-intensity conflict in the North and is expected to undergo a similar transformation in regard to the South.

This completely contradicts Netanyahu’s assertion the previous day, in which he claimed that warfare has intensified in the southern region of the Gaza Strip.

The Americans are exposing Netanyahu’s bluff, despite his attempts to keep the Israeli public in partial darkness concerning the way this war is being conducted.

The butterfly effect of the intensifying voices of unease emanating from Washington is creating ripples that are impacting Jerusalem’s political landscape.

Even at this stage of the war, marked by slow progress and by military achievements that are not apparent to an untrained eye, there is room for freedom of thought in terms of the political possibilities that could follow.

Gantz knew what he was getting into. He was called naïve at first, but this is a man who was already stung once before by the political scorpion that is Benjamin Netanyahu, when Gantz joined the Covid unity government.

He came into this current government with eyes wide open, hopeful that after October 07, 2023 something might have changed in Israel’s most seasoned politician.

It had, but that did not last long. Presently, many in the political sphere believe that Gantz is devising his exit strategy. When will he leave?

To answer that question, one must understand the power dynamics within the government, specifically within the war cabinet.

Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, a minister without a portfolio, joined the emergency government to embody the well-worn political slogan of ‘pulling their weight,’ contributing their share, and actively participating in the war effort.

Both entered the military arena, securing two of the five seats in the national emergency unity government’s war cabinet, and have emerged as two of the most pivotal players in the war’s management.

However, having 100 day lapsed since they joined, it seems that their influence on the war’s management is diminishing.

There are several examples of this, the most prominent of which revolves around the hostages’ release. It has been more than 50 days since the last hostage was set free, and it seems like Israel is limping along, with little sparks of hope for the 136 hostages who are still being held captive in Gaza in tunnels and secret locations, rising, then falling.

Every few weeks, Hamas releases additional sadistic videos which often disclose the tragic news that a few more hostages have been murdered.

Eisenkot believes that it is time to stop and consider where the war machine needs to be led next, and whether the victories Israel has achieved so far have reached a point that justifies considering a ceasefire in exchange for the release of the hostages.

He has argued that at the very least, this option should be explored.

“We need to stop lying to ourselves,” Eisenkot states. “We must be courageous and aim for an acceptable deal that will bring all of the hostages’ home. Time is running out, and each passing day is putting their lives in further jeopardy. We cannot stick blindly to the same strategy while the hostages are still in captivity. Now is the critical stage in which bold decisions must be made. Otherwise, we may as well throw in the towel.”

Up until now, Eisenkot has been perceived as a somewhat unremarkable politician, not drawing much attention due to his perceived neutrality and lack of charisma.

In recent weeks, he has been gaining prominence, as he articulates opinions that resonate with public sentiment.

If a popularity poll were to be conducted now, Eisenkot, who recently buried his son who was killed in Gaza, would garner high approval ratings.

Eisenkot and Gantz are up against Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Netanyahu, who believe that exerting military force is the key to overcoming Hamas and securing the release of hostages, echoing the strategy that preceded the previous hostage release.

Yet, 50 days have passed without significant progress. This issue could turn into an Archimedean point that could force Gantz and Eisenkot to withdraw from the government.

Meanwhile, both feel that they still hold sway over decisions, and as long as IDF soldiers are still fighting in Gaza, the war must go on.

Furthermore, stepping down at this juncture carries significant political risks, since such a decision could be interpreted as Gantz and Eisenkot escaping responsibility, which could critically damage the number of seats the currently popular National Unity party could secure in the future.

Netanyahu is acutely aware of these considerations, and has been actively working to exert control. As has been depicted in the past, Netanyahu is the type of politician who never stops planning for the day after. That is, their day after.

To achieve this, he has been focusing on strengthening his coalition, as what is acceptable during normal times, is not so during wartime, since the prime minister has found little room to make a move in the cabinet.

While war cabinet meetings have been scheduled to address what the day after the war will look like for Israel, a comprehensive discussion on this matter has yet to take place.

In fact, senior IDF officials have remarked that if the government does not take a stance soon, the IDF will be forced to return to areas that it had already conquered, then relinquished.

Indian Navy rescues crew of US-owned vessel

According to Reuters, Indian Navy on Thursday rescued the crew of a US-owned vessel in the Gulf of Aden after an attack by Yemen's Houthi as tensions in the region's sea lanes disrupted global trade.

Following the attack on the US Genco Picardy late on Wednesday, the US military said its forces had conducted strikes on 14 Houthi missiles that presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.

Attacks by Houthi militia on ships in and around the Red Sea since November have slowed trade between Asia and Europe and alarmed major powers in an escalation of the war between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants in Gaza.

The Houthis say they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians and have threatened to target US ships in response to American and British strikes on the group's positions.

The strategy pursued by US President Joe Biden - a blend of limited military strikes and sanctions - appears aimed at preventing a wider Middle East conflict even as Washington seeks to punish the Houthis, security and military experts say.

It is unclear whether it will accomplish Biden's main goal ‑ halting attacks by militants that are causing supply bottlenecks and raising fears that inflation could reignite.

India had earlier diverted a warship deployed in the region to rescue the 22 crew on board the Genco Picardy, including nine Indians. The crew was all safe and a fire on board the vessel had been extinguished.

The Houthi movement said its missiles had made a direct hit on the bulk carrier. Shipping operator Genco confirmed the attack, and said its vessel was hit by a projectile while it was passing through the Gulf of Aden with a cargo of phosphate rock.

 

 

Iran considers Pakistan's security as its own, says Abdollahian

In a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart on Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian emphasized that Tehran attaches great significance to the security of its neighbor countries including Pakistan.

The top Iranian diplomat told Jalil Abbas Jilani that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan is extremely important to Iran. He, however, noted that Iran cannot sit idly by and let vicious terrorists spill the blood of its innocent civilians. 

“The group we targeted has claimed responsibility for several terrorist attacks on Iranian soil. No Pakistani civilians were targeted in this operation,” Amir Abdollahian stated. 

The Iranian foreign minister also hoped for the continuation of dialogue between the two countries, saying the exchange of views should continue based on mutual interest and must lead to stronger security cooperation. 

The Pakistani foreign minister, for his part, underscored the historic ties between Iran and Pakistan, while pointing out the two nations’ long-lasting endeavors in combating terrorism.   

He also listed the numerous areas of cooperation between the two countries and requested the Iranian side to provide information related to terrorist groups on Pakistani soil for cooperation between the two countries.

Jilani emphasized that Islamabad expects the confrontation with terrorist groups in Pakistan to be carried out by Pakistani forces.

In December, a terrorist attack on a southeastern police station in Iran left 11 guards killed and 6 others injured. The Pakistan-based Jaish al-Adl terrorist group took responsibility for the attack.

The headquarters of the Jaish al-Adl were pounded by a barrage of Iranian missiles on Tuesday, which destroyed the group’s terror infrastructure.

Iran says it officially asked Pakistan numerous times to rein in the terrorists in the past years, but Islamabad has not done enough to combat the group. 

 

Iran and Pakistan conduct joint naval exercise in Persian Gulf

According to Tehran Times, Iran and Pakistani military forces engaged in a day-long joint naval training exercise in the Strait of Hormuz and the northern Persian Gulf, demonstrating their commitment to enhancing cooperation and strengthening relations.

The drills, which took place off the coast of Bandar Abbas, involved combat vessels and missile-launching warships from both the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy and the Pakistan Navy.

The main objectives of the naval exercises were to elevate the level of training interactions, promote military relations, and implement bilateral maritime agreements. Young officers and cadets from both Iranian and Pakistani navies participated, employing a range of naval tactics and practicing communication and interaction using various telecommunication systems. Emphasis was placed on the transmission and reception of messages during sea emergencies.

Iran and Pakistan have increasingly intensified their military cooperation, conducting several joint naval exercises. In June of the previous year, senior military commanders from both nations discussed plans for collaboration between their navies and air forces.

During the meetings in Islamabad, Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani engaged with Chief of Naval Staff of Pakistan Muhammad Amjad Khan Niazi and Chief of Air Staff of the Pakistan Air Force Zaheer Ahmad Babar. The Iranian delegation received briefings on the Pakistani Navy's efforts in ensuring maritime security and discussed plans for bilateral and multilateral cooperation.

The commanders explored ways to enhance cooperation between the navies of Iran and Pakistan, including initiatives such as training courses and the exchange of delegations. This ongoing collaboration underscores the commitment to mutual strategic interests in the region.

Earlier this month, Iran announced that the Islamic Republic plans to form new regional and extra-regional alliances to enhance security.

He also named Pakistan among other countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq that are eager for collective naval cooperation.

 

Pakistan to recall its ambassador from Iran

The Foreign Office (FO) on Wednesday said Pakistan has decided to recall its ambassador from Iran and suspend all high-level visits ongoing or planned between the two countries following the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Tehran.

Iran claimed having targeted an Iranian terrorist group and none of the nationals of the friendly and brotherly country of Pakistan were targeted by Iranian missiles and drones.

The development came after the FO, in a statement released late on Tuesday night, denounced the strikes in Pakistani territory that resulted in deaths of two innocent children while injuring of three girls. It termed the incident a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

In a press briefing in Islamabad on Wednesday, FO spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said last night’s unprovoked and blatant breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty by Iran was a violation of international law and the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.

“This illegal act is completely unacceptable and has no justification whatsoever,” she asserted.

 “We have also informed them that Pakistan has decided to recall its ambassador from Iran and that the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan, who is currently visiting Iran, may not return for the time being,” she said.

 “On Pakistan, none of the nationals of the friendly and brotherly country of Pakistan were targeted by Iranian missiles and drones,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Amir-Abdollahian said Iran’s attack on “Pakistan’s soil” was a response to the Jaish Al Adl group’s recent deadly attacks, particularly on the city of Rask in the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan.

“The group has taken shelter in some parts of Pakistan’s Balochistan province,” he claimed, adding that “we’ve talked with Pakistani officials several times on this matter”.

The foreign minister said Iran respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan but would not “allow the country’s national security to be compromised or played with”.

Earlier, Iran’s Deputy President for Parliamentary Affairs Mohammad Hosseini claimed Pakistan had been warned that they must prevent the entry into Iran of people who kill large numbers of people; it was natural to have the reaction of the Islamic republic.